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E-217 - Tuesday, July 30, 2019
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RECENT AURAL PLEASURE:
IN TODAY'S NOONER:
POLL POSITION: PPIC is out with its monthly statewide survey. [likely voter crosstabs] This month's survey is primarily on environmental issues. Meanwhile, approval ratings for the governor and Legislature are steady from previous surveys.
Governor Gavin Newsom job approval (California residents):
Legislature job approval (California residents):
I'll let you read the environmental questions. As often with general polling, voters are concerned about environmental issues and support the $130 million for clean drinking water. It's an easy choice when there is no direct consequence of the voter's choice. I'm not blaming PPIC as you know I'm a fanboy, but who is not going to say that plastics in the ocean are bad? But look at the debate we just had about plastic straws and lots of restaurants are still not abiding by it.
Or this question "How about encouraging local governments to change land use and transportation planning so that people could drive less?"
Remember that both the Los Angeles City Council and San Francisco Board of Supervisors adopted resolutions unanimously opposing SB 50.
PPIC also asked respondents who are Democrats of their preference in the presidential primary. This was an open-ended question with no ballot label for the respondent to name someone.
Remember, in the California Democratic presidential primary, delegates are overwhelmingly awarded by congressional district. There is a minimum threshold of 15% in each congressional district and for those candidates who cross that threshold, delegates are awarded proportionately. So, if things remained the same, Mayor Pete Buttigieg could walk away from California with lots of delegates even if he only gets 5% statewide.
Remember the fundraising analysis Ben Christopher did for CalMatters earlier this month--Buttigieg is second in California behind Kamala Harris. Kamala reported $7.5 million from California between January 1 and June 30, while Buttigieg reported $4.8 million.
This is particularly true with Buttigieg. LGBTQ voters won't be solely influenced by the fact that he's openly gay and married, but if he's still in the race, it's hard to see him doing very well in a district like Raul Ruiz's CA36 with large gay populations, including the entire Palm Springs City Council. How this works in Nancy Pelosi's district of San Francisco will also be interesting. They have a former district attorney and openly gay candidate.
Similarly, Scott Peters has a very large LGBTQ population in CA52, as evidenced by LGBTQ State Senator (Toni Atkins) and Assemblyman (Todd Gloria). In fact, as Gloria is running for San Diego mayor and the two candidates for his AD78 are both LGBTQ--Councilman Chris Ward and Sarah Davis. California has two LGBTQ members of Congress--Mark Takano (D-Riverside) and Katie Hill (D-Santa Clarita).
We need Paul Mitchell to identify the gayest congressional districts. As he described on the podcast, they have lots of ways of predicting even though the data is not collected in the Census.
I am not suggesting LGBTQ candidates are identity voters. They care about roads, schools, public safety, the environment, etc.
But, if he's on the ballot and seen as a movement in 2020, I'm betting a lot of natural Harris voters would cast a ballot for him to advance him in the process. Without disrespecting Kamala, she's really not known in much of California. I bet that 60% of Nooner readers can't remember who she beat in the 2016 general (let alone who else was in the primary) without Google.
I'll save you a search, she beat then-Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez in a top-two Dem-on-Dem general. The primary had 42 candidates, two of whom were qualified write-ins. Harris is mostly known for her aggressive question of Trump Administration officials in Senate Judiciary along with Cory Booker. It's not like much legislation has been going through since she joined the Senate in January 2017.
Meanwhile, Pete has prominent LGBTQ leaders introducing him around the state, including West Sacramento Mayor Christopher Cabaldon and Sacramento City Councilmember Steve Hansen. Cabaldon was one of the speakers at his announcement and is one of the longest-serving gay public officials in America. I haven't spent time to cross-reference the campaign finance reports, but I'm guessing there are lots of folks on both Harris's and Buttigieg's reports. There is also likely a lot of cross-over between those two and Joe Biden. As I've written in this space before, I'm a "donor" to Booker, Buttigieg, and Harris--because I bought t-shirts.
Voters might think that by advancing Pete in the process, it could lead to a veep nomination or cabinet position.
We still have 217 days before the California primary, or 189 days before a majority of voters have a ballot in their mailbox.
GUNS: Following up on Sunday's shooting at the Gilroy Garlic Festival, KQED's Marisa Lagos looks at California's strict gun laws and asks whether they are working. "Still, those who have crafted the state's strict laws — and those charged with enforcing them — say that California's gun control laws are working, just not well enough to prevent every tragedy."
Meanwhile, Monterey County supervisor and former Assemblymember Luis Alejo carried the bill (AB 1609) in 2014 to prohibit persons from bringing into California firearms purchased from gun dealers in other states. The law provides that the out-of-state dealer is supposed to ship the firearm to an in-state dealer for verification that the firearm sale complies with California law, such as a ten-day waiting period, background check, and firearms safety certificate.
Nevada doesn't have background checks.
When I was president of the Law Students Association at Davis, Luis was president of the La Raza Law Students and we worked together on a lot of issues and programs, including funding for recruitment of students from diverse backgrounds, which eventually contributed to the statewide Pathway to Law School program that gets interested students on track for law school while in community college, the most diverse higher education student body. The program works to get students on track early with the right courses to be successful in their path to law school and, eventually, in law school. After all, that's the path taken by Supreme Court of California Chief Justice Tani Cantil-Sakauye. Sacramento City College->UC Davis->UC Davis Law.
I can't stop thinking about Luis's leadership on these issues and the fact that three people died, including 6 year-old and 13 year-old Latino kids who will never have the chance to pursue their aspirations.
I don't know the solution to enforce AB 1609 without federal law changes. The offender was the shooter, and not the gun store owner who sold the assault weapon to him. There's no real way for state law to extend to the owner and the shooter is dead.
At the border, we have agricultural inspections, which is really just a query as to where you are coming from. If you answer "Tahoe, Reno, or Vegas" and have no visible produce you are waved through. Obviously, even if we had a query from those state employees of "Did you purchase any guns out of state?" the bad folks would lie and it would slow down traffic through checkpoints. And, if the person is flying, we don't want to turn out-of-state airline check-in counter employees into experts on California's current gun law.
Governor Gavin Newsom was blunt and outspoken about the tragedy. He was showing the emotions as the father of four school-aged children. The three victims who died were 6, 13, and 25. The Gilroy Garlic Festival is an event that families go to and, even with gubernatorial-level security, he knows that it could have been his kids. They had increased security at the festival, and the asshole cut through a fence to bypass metal detectors.
What happened to the commitment by the mainstream media to not publish names of mass shooters? I see his name everywhere I look along with media psychoanalysis. The fact is that we can all agree that we don't want to glorify shooters, people are consumed with what can make someone do this.
I don't know what the hell to do. Meanwhile, we're still debating whether Baltimore is a rat-infested sh*thole on the morning news. And, that's even with another deadly shooting this morning at a Walmart in Mississippi. It's early, but reports are that two people died and an officer was wounded.
GOVERNOR SIGNS "TRUMP TAX RETURN BILL": This morning, Governor Newsom signed SB 27 (McGuire), which requires candidates to submit five years of tax returns to appear on the California presidential primary ballot. I strongly believe this will be thrown out as unconstutional, as states can't add requirements beyond generally accepted ballot "support" to the Constitutions two requirements--age 35 and a natural born citizen. I wrote about this in length on July 14 and July 12.
The press release included three law professors I deeply respect, including Chemerinsky and Boies. That said, the California Republican Party will take it to court all the way. The chance of a final decision being reached before ballot printing is about that same as me being appointed to the Supreme Court of the United States or me appointed Dean of Berkeley School of Law after Chemerinsky steps down to be the CEO of the National Rifle Association. Certified list of candidates goes out December 26.
That said, I would have told Gavin to sign it and leave it up to the courts. Zero political cost to him and it helps him with Democrats in the Legislature before tougher decisions are made down the final stretch of session.
PHARMACEUTICALS: Attorney General Xavier Becerra announced yesterday that the State of California has reached a settlement with three drug manufactures alleged to have conspired to keep generic medications off the market. For the Times, Samantha Masanuga reports that two companies have agreed to pay the state $70 million, while a third will be subject to an injunction prohibiting future such "pay for delay" actions. Masanuga writes:
"Teva, Endo Pharmaceuticals and Teikoku Pharma also made pay-for-delay agreements about Lidoderm, a medical patch to treat pain from shingles, Becerra’s office said. It said the agreements kept a generic version off the market for almost two years. Endo and Teikoku were partners in producing Lidoderm, and a company later acquired by Teva agreed to delay releasing a generic version of the medication.
Under a settlement reached last month, Endo will pay the state $760,000 and will be under an eight-year injunction preventing it from entering into further pay-for-delay agreements, Becerra’s office said. It said Teikoku will be under a 20-year injunction."
"OUR KIDS WIN TOO!" In the Bee, Wes Venteicher reports about questions from lawmakers of weather funding for schools actually benefits from the State Lottery. Venteicher writes:
"Lottery revenues have “skyrocketed” over the last 10 years, reaching nearly $7 billion last year, but the share of money the agency gives to schools hasn’t kept up, State Sen. Ling Ling Chang, a suburban L.A. Republican, wrote in an audit request.
The Lottery was making $3 billion in revenue and contributing about $1 billion for education 10 years ago, according to Lottery data cited by Chang. Last year, when revenues approached $7 billion, the agency had increased its school contributions to close to $2 billion, according to the data."
INSURANCE COMMISH: In the SDUT, Jeff McDonald writes with increased scrutiny over whether Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara has provided assistance to campaign donors. In Politico, Carla Marinucci and Jeremy B. White report that at a convention of insurance executives last week, Lara told attendees that he would “start engaging the industry like never before” on issues that include giving insurers more access to drivers’ vehicle data — an effort long opposed by consumer advocates as a privacy invasion."
CAKEDAY after the jump...
#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Alma Barreras, Nancy Bui-Thompson, Matt Cate, Galen Dobbins, Mikey Singh Hothi, Cory Jasperson, Amy Miller, Neil Pople, and Maya Wallace!