The Nooner for Friday, August 7, 2020, presented by SYASL Partners
- Money Matters
- The numbers
- IHME model update
- school daze
- higher ed
- rural California
- San Diego racial disparity
- SF small biz
- Uber/Lyft court hearing
- Mental health
- cakeday and new classifieds
GENERAL ELECTION DATA POINTS
MONEY MATTERS (highlights from daily campaign finance reports):
- No on 15 (split roll) reports $80,000 from the California State Club Association and $10,000 from The Niello Company
- No on Prop 22 (AB 5 exemption for transportation network companies) reports $250,000 from the California Federation of Teachers and $200,000 from the California State Council of Laborers
- Yes on 25 (bail referendum - "yes" upholds SB 10) reports $250,000 from the California State Council of Service Employees and also $25,000 from the California Federation of Teachers
- No on 25 (bail referendum - "no" overturns SB 10) reports $251,902 from the American Surety Company and also reports $541,601 from Bankers Insurance Company, $335,476 from AIA Holdings, $9,505 from United States Fire Insurance Company, $11,104 from Universal Fire & Casualty Insurance Company, $934,967 from Triton Fire Insurance Company, and $186,993 from Seaview Insurance Company.
ATCpro SUBSCRIBER UPDATES: [A full list of recent election analysis is on the subscribers home page. If you have forgotten or haven't set a password, use the forgot password tool]
- CA39 (Diamond Bar-Fullerton-Yorba Linda): updated analysis (Leans Dem)
- CA53 (SD Balboa Park-La Mesa-El Cajon): updated analysis (Safe Dem - Dem-Dem general)
- SD29 (Diamond Bar-Fullerton): updated anaysis (Toss-up)
- SD37 (Anaheim Hills-Irvine): updated anaysis (Leans Dem)
- **AD68 (Anaheim Hills-Orange-Tustin-Irvine): updated anaysis (Toss-up)
Happy Friday! I was up early to write to get enough done to watch the Senate Public Safety Committee beginning at 9am. There are five use of force bills up and I'll put the outcomes here if they get to them before 11:30, the first Nooner distribution.
- AB 66 (Gonzalez), limiting to use of projectiles and chemical agenst, including prohibiting the use of CN and CS gas: 5-1 (Morrell no, Moorlach not voting)
- AB 767 (Grayson), which relates to access to the California Victim Compensation Fund for police use of excessive force. The issue comes down to the board overseeing the fund is prohibited from granting victim compensation if the victim is shown to have contributed to the excessive use of force: bill on call.
They are now on AB 1022 (Holden), which relates to the duty to intercede and reporting by a peace officer observing another officer using excessive force. This comes right out of the George Floyd case in Minneapolis. This bill won't be finished by 11:30, so we'll get to it tomorrow!
It has been an absolutely wild week, although it doesn't end today if you are following a bill in the hearing tomorrow of Senate Business, Professions and Economic Development. That committee is meeting at 10am Saturday in the Senate Chamber (video will be online here) and has 28 bills before it including the perennial nurse practitioner scope of practice bill, AB 890 (Wood) as a special order at 11am.
The bill allows nurse practitioners who complete additional professional certifications to perform specified procedures without the direction of physicians beginning in 2023. There is no analysis that I have seen, but I believe physicians groups are still opposed while there is a broad coalition supporting the bill.
Also tomorrow from 12-5pm is the Buddhist Church of Sacramento's Bazaar-at-Home Edition, which substitutes for the popular annual summer bazaar. I'm looking to the interview with the church's retired Reverend Bob. Reverend Bob Oshita was the Assembly's chaplain last session, and wife Reverend Patti is the Assembly chaplain this session, who we saw last year. Obviously, she has not been offering the opening prayer for much of 2020 as members have substituted in the socially distanced chamber. Additionally, Rep. Doris Matsui is participating and there will be numerous musical performances
BYOT - Bring your own teriyaki. I'm going to miss those aromas this year with taiko drums in the background but it is what it is. They were going to sell chicken bento boxes to go, but had to scrap it based on county health orders and concerns about the health of the sangha. [Facebook Live | schedule]
Here's a funny Buddhist Hamilton parody "We'll Be Back" that fits perfectly as as warm-up for the event. Given Senate B&P that I fully expect to extend well into the afternoon, it'll be another day of multi-tasking for me.
- The numbers: California added 141 deaths yesterday, bringing the total over 10,000 to 10,017.
- The projections: The influential model maintained by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington was updated yesterday and it's not particularly good. In the new run, the model now projects 32,691.72 deaths in California by December 1 under current operations, with a range of 20,091.6-55,083.29. With universal masking, the model projects 21,383.86 deaths in the state by December 1, with a range of 15,898.52-29,483.57.
The model relies on the state data on testing and positivity rates, which we now know has been seriously flawed and underreported. The last model run on July 16 projected 21,264 deaths in California by November 1.
- Federal relief: As of the time of this writing, there are no scheduled meetings of leadership after the meeting last night broke down with the parties far apart. Most members have left Washington and POTUS is at the Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, NJ, where he went directly to after the fundraiser last night in Ohio.
- Voting: In the Times, John Myers looks at how California is preparing for the November 3 election, which will be hybrid with ballots mailed to all registered voters but, like with Voter's Choice Act counties like Sacramento in 2018, will be accompanied with vote centers for provisional same-day registration and for registered voters with lost ballots to vote conditionally.
After Gov. Gavin Newsom issued an executive order in June outlining new voting location rules — a plan ratified on Thursday by the Legislature — county officials have scrambled to determine how many in-person locations they can muster and how many days they can keep them open. Added to that is uncertainty over whether there will be enough short-term workers who are willing to work more than a single day and also enforce strict coronavirus safety measures.
“I think all counties have struggled a bit,” said Brandi Orth, registrar of voters in Fresno County and president of the state association of elections officials. “It is an extreme, additional lift.”
Few problems are more pressing than finding locations that meet strict guidelines for physical distancing. The tradition of cramming ballot-marking booths into a neighbor’s garage or a room at a senior care facility is, at least for this election, a nonstarter.
- School daze: For CalMatters, Ricardo Cano looks at how rural schools in California are preparing for in-person teaching.
The vast majority of California’s public and private schools will begin the new academic year remotely as coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths continue to mount. But a handful of schools, such as those in Inyo County’s Bishop Unified School District, will be among the first in the state to reinstate physical school reopenings, offering case studies on when and how to safely bring children and adults back to campuses.
More than 97% of California’s 6.1 million K-12 students live in the 38 counties on the state’s COVID-19 monitoring list, effectively shutting the door on in-person instruction until their counties stabilize infection rates and stay off the list for 14 days. The other 164,000 students live in the 20 counties not on the watch list.
Meanwhile, a Catholic high school in San Diego has filed a lawsuit in San Diego Superior against the state's public health guidance on public and private school in-person reopening (adopted by counties as an order), reports Andrea Lopez-Villafaña for the SDUT.
- Higher ed: A team at the Times reports on the challenge colleges and universities are facing as the fall term approaches with no guidance provided by the state.
Many campuses, including USC and Claremont McKenna, say the lack of clear and timely state guidance has caused them to spend enormous energy and money preparing for varying reopening scenarios — without knowing what will be allowed amid a surge of COVID-19 infections.
A spokesman for Gov. Gavin Newsom said the guidance will be released by the California Department of Health on Friday morning, but did not respond to questions about the delay.
Several institutions had planned to offer hybrid instruction and campus housing with strict safety protocols for masks, distancing, testing and tracing. But the lack of state authorization for those plans, even as fall return dates inch ever closer, prompted many to abruptly change gears.
Barbara Ferrer, L.A. County’s public health director, said this week that care must be taken because colleges and universities are “high-risk settings” for the spread of COVID-19. She noted that outbreaks have occurred in connection with USC at three fraternities and among a group of graduate students, as well as among UCLA football players.
- Rural California: In the Times, Alex Wigglesworth and Rong-Gong Lin II look at the movement of COVID-19 outbreaks from the state's urban areas to rural California.
“The epidemic is moving from urban Latino populations to rural Latino populations,” Dr. George Rutherford, epidemiologist and infectious-diseases expert at UC San Francisco, said Wednesday. The risk factors are the same: low-income essential workers who live in crowded housing and must leave home to work and earn money and who may be less likely to speak up to call attention to problematic workplace safety conditions.
Earlier in the pandemic, Los Angeles County was one of the hot spots for new infections. By June, it was Imperial County. The rural, agricultural and impoverished county east of San Diego soared up the list as California’s hardest hit county, in terms of new cases per 100,000 residents over the past two weeks. Imperial County hit its worst number on June 16, when there were 1,438 cases per 100,000 residents over the previous two weeks.
Now, it’s clear that the virus is hitting the Central Valley the hardest. Kern County, home to Bakersfield, is now recording 1,160 cases per 100,000 residents over the past two weeks. The rate reached its highest point on Saturday, reaching 1,376 cases per 100,000 residents over the prior two weeks — a figure more than 9 times as much as it was at the beginning of July, when the county reported 136 cases per 100,000 residents.
- San Diego racial disparity: Philip Molnar reports in the SDUT on new analysis of the San Diego Association of Governments on the disproportionate impact of the economic and health effects of the pandemic.
New data from the San Diego Association of Governments, or SANDAG, shows Black and Latino populations were three times as likely to live in areas with both high unemployment and high cases of the virus when compared with White workers.
Sixty-three percent of Latinos and 58 percent of Blacks lived in county ZIP codes hit hardest by unemployment, as of late July. Additionally, 53 percent of Blacks and 52 percent of Latinos lived in areas with the highest number of virus cases.
The data shows low-income workers and communities are most likely to be hurt by the economic and health effects of the pandemic. Especially striking is the race disparities during the shifting national conversation about race since the killing of George Floyd.
- SF Small biz: For the Chron, Heather Knight reports on the departure of San Francisco's small businesses closed because of the lengthy limitations on operations and wariness of customers to return to normal.
Small businesses have long been the lifeblood of San Francisco, anchoring our eclectic neighborhoods and bringing us joy that Amazon never could. But this is proving to be the summer of their demise, as scores of stores have quietly shuttered for good.
At least half of San Francisco’s restaurants are expected to close forever. Already on that list are treasured spots like the diner It’s Tops in the Castro, the 83-year-old Louis’ Restaurant overlooking Sutro Baths and Zanze’s Cheesecake on Ocean Avenue.
UBER/LYFT COURT HEARING: Yesterday, the lawsuit by Attorney General Xavier Becerra to require Uber and Lyft to classify drivers as employees rather than independent contractors following Dynamex and AB 5 took place before judge Ethan P. Schulman in San Francisco Superior Court. The ability to view the arguments was limited to 100 and I didn't make it in time. Thus, I followed the nearly three-hour hearing with the Twitter feed of Nicholas Iovino of Courthouse News. It is a good and fair read.
From my take, it sounded like Schulman agreed with the state's arguments but was hesitate to issue a mandatory injunction with Proposition 22 pending on the November 3 ballot. That measure -- sponsored by Uber, Lyft, and Postmates -- would add exemptions for transportation network companies, keeping drivers as independent contractors with limited benefits. The state was asking for a mandatory injunction, which can not be stayed pending appeal (which would obviously be after the Prop. 22 election), while Uber and Lyft argued that the state's case neither satisfied the legal standard of a preliminary or mandatory injunction.
Judge Schulman concluded the hearing by saying he would rule on the state's motion for injunction within the matter of days, not weeks.
MENTAL HEALTH: For Capitol Weekly, Sigrid Bathen looks at the Legislature's response to a State Auditor report heavily critical of the California's mental health care delivery system.
A massive and highly critical state auditor’s report has given new life to legislation to deal with California’s notoriously troubled mental-health system. The shift comes as state lawmakers, convening amid the COVID-19 pandemic, face hundreds of bills in the closing days of the legislative session.
While a bill to strengthen and make permanent “Laura’s Law” in California sailed through the state Assembly in early June, it stalled in the state Senate, as legislative leaders clashed over how to manage the crush of bills awaiting action by the Aug. 31 deadline.
But when state Auditor Elaine Howle unequivocally urged statewide adoption of Laura’s Law in California in her July 28 report – and after Assembly leadership complained that Assembly bills were not receiving fair hearings in the Senate – the measure was suddenly added to the agenda for a Senate Health Committee hearing on Saturday, Aug. 1.
The bill, which gives family members legal recourse to get mentally ill relatives into treatment, easily passed 8-0.
SACTOWN: Yesterday, the Sacramento Area Fire Fighters Local 522 announced its opposition to the "strong mayor" measure placed on the November 3 ballot by the city council this week, reports Theresa Clift for The Bee. Clift reports:
The influential group, which represents about 2,000 active and retired firefighters from the Sacramento Fire Department and the Sacramento Metropolitan Fire District, as well as other departments in Sacramento, Yolo and Placer counties, supported a similar “strong mayor” measure, which failed in 2014.
This time around, the union raised concerns about the component of the measure that would require the city set aside $40 million each year for inclusive economic development and youth.
Those were the types of projects Sacramento Mayor Darrell Steinberg was promising to fund with the majority of the estimated $40 million from the Measure U sales tax increase voters approved in 2018. But there is nothing guaranteeing that those funds can’t be used for core city services, such as police and fire, which is what happened when the coronavirus pandemic hit earlier this year.
If voters approve the measure Nov. 3, the $40 million-a-year promise will be enshrined in the city charter.
That permanent change would put fire and emergency medical responses and other important city services at risk, the union said.
VEEPSTAKES: In the Times, Michael Finnegan looks at where those under consideration to be a running mate might end up in a Biden administration if not picked for the No. 2 job.
For the two Californians, he lists:
- Sen. Kamala Harris: Supreme Court or Attorney General (but would she leave Senate for AG?)
- Rep. Karen Bass: U.N. Ambassador, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Health and Human Services
cakeday and new classifieds after the jump...
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