Some people have asked how I decide between Toss-Up, Leans Dem/Rep, Likely Dem/Rep, and Safe Dem/Rep. Well, it is subjective, but generally, here we go:
Toss-Up is a true 50% chance, either because of district make up or candidate factors (money, endorsements, etc.)
Lean is a 50+ to 60% chance
Likely is a 60+ to 90% chance
Safe is 90% - 100% (obviously in districts in which two members of the same party advanced to the general)
Good midday Wednesday to you! One week left in the legislative session, including five business days. If the Legislature follows tradition of not meeting Friday, make that four business days. That explains the frenetic pace if you were watching session yesterday, with gut-and-amends still arriving through rule waivers.
One notable thing was how much faster end of session bill consideration goes without former Assemblymember Tim Donnelly, who liked to speak on every bill he opposed (which was most). We even have time to smash some Pokemon during the proceedings!
For now, barring a Herculean last-minute effort, we're stuck with "spring forward, fall back," meaning my clock radio will be an hour off half the year because I always forget how to change the time.
I'm off to Davis in a few for the first of several appointments following my brain's electrical misfiring on Sunday that landed me in the ER. Hopefully I'm back to Nooner Global Headquarters by the time you read this.
VOTER REG STATS: The latest voter registration numbers are now on the [full Nooner]