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REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

 

THE NOONER NOVEMBER 2018 ELECTION CONTEST -- Free and fun!

Here are the current tallies of the picks of contest participants. These are all percentages of participants who predict the candidate will win, of course not how much candidates will win by. The page is updated live as participants join and make or update picks.

With 503 participants as of this morning, here are a some of the closest (<60%) projected wins:

IC Steve Poizner (N) 54.99%
IC Ricardo Lara (D) 44.81%

 

SD14 Andy Vidak (R) 57.95%
SD14 Melissa Hurtado (D) 42.05%

 

SD22 Susan Rubio (D) 56.83%
SD22 Michael Eng (D) 43.17%

 

AD38 Dante Acosta (R) 52.89%
AD38 Christy Smith (D) 47.11%

 

AD72 Josh Lowenthal (D) 59.55%
AD72 Tyler Diep (R) 40.45%

I previously announced the awards:

  • First: $100 Amazon card or charitable contribution of your choice (pot in case of tie)
  • Second: $50 Amazon card or charitable contribution of your choice (pot in case of tie)
  • Third: $25 Amazon card or charitable contribution of your choice (pot in case of tie)

In addition, any Nooner Premium subscriber will have a $25 bonus applied to their prize in thanks for their support.

Here is your unique link. If you forward this message, remove the link since it belongs to you. New Nooner email subscribers (paid or unpaid) will be get their own link between now and the contest close.

##CONTESTLINK##

You can come back to change your picks any time up to 12pm on Election Day--November 6.

Only the top 25 participants will be shown, and the individual race answers will not be listed. 

 

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E-13

BALANCE OF POWER: 

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 43 Democrats, 8 Republicans, 2 hell, I don't knows
      - Dems hold 39; Reps hold 9
      - Dems pick up 5 leaners/likelies -- Denham (CA10), Knight (CA25) Walters (CA45) and Open/Issa (CA49)
      - Toss-ups of Open/Royce (CA39) and Rohrabacher (CA48)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
      - While I have SD14 as Leans Rep, it's appearing very close
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 57-59 Democrats
      - Dems hold 55, with guaranteed pick-up AD76 Chávez/Open seat, Republicans hold 21, plus:
      likely Dem pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40)
      - lean Dem in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60)
      - lean Rep in Acosta (AD38) , and Harper AD74
      - toss-ups in Baker (AD16) and Open/Allen (AD72)

 

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GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 10/1-10/17/2018 has Democrats+7.7. (change from yesterday: no change) 

For comparison purposes only: In the same period in 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4. 

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:

  • US Senate control: 18.3% D, 81.7% R (Change from yesterday: R+0.4)
  • Senate seats: 48 D, 52 R (Change from yesterday: R+1)
  • CA US Senate projected vote: Feinstein: 59.8%, de León 40.2% (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • House control: 85.2%% D, 14.8% R (Change from yesterday: D-0.8)
  • House seats: 234 D, 201 R (Change from yesterday: D-1)
  • Popular vote margin: D+8.9% (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • California delegation: 46 Democrats, 6 Republicans, 1 Toss-up (Change from yesterday: CA39 (Royce/Open back to toss-up)  

ABSENTEE BALLOT RETURNS FROM PDI:

  • mailed: 12,501,648 total: 5,445,214: Dem (44%), 3,126,925 Rep (25%), 3,929,459 NPP/other (31%)
  • returned: server error this morning (I'll tweet it when it comes back up)

Full data:  statewide and local government | federal and state legislative districts

 

Conditional Voter Registration and Voting Continues

 

Happy Humpday! Scratch that. Crappy humpday. So far, it looks like no injuries and so in no way a comparison, but the fear gripping many in the nation reminds me of a similar morning of writing at my desk in Davis on September 11, 2001.

I do love the chill in the air the last few days. Don't get me wrong, I savor working outside in the afternoon, but I equally love writing in a hoodie before the sun comes up. It's like being in a writing womb. 

SPORTS PAGE: There were lots of losers in California last night--fans of the Dodgers, Clippers, and Kings, and of course lottery ticket buyers. Game 2 of the World Series is at 5:09 PDT on FOX.

Admit it, after laughing at co-workers and friends for their Fantasmic! dreams of what they were going to do with the winnings, you took an alternate route home to find the seediest market to buy the lucky ticket. After finding out that you can't use a card to buy lottery tickets, you panicked and remembered that you stashed change in your ash tray (do cars still have those?) and happily yet secretly bought your ticket to freedom.

I planned ahead and new that I would work on the patio outside Chicory with a cup of tea following my PPIC policy lunch. Since the patio is shared with Lit Dehli Market and Cafe, I planned ahead and dug through my coin jar to find eight lucky state quarters. Did you know that Hawaii--Barack Obama's "alleged" state of birth--was released by the President Bush's Department of Treasury the day before the 2018 presidential election? I think we need an investigation.

Arizona was released the same year, but it was the day before California's state primary, although we cast our presidential ballots in February that year. McCain didn't need his state's quarter to beat Romney in the California primary, let alone Duncan Hunter, Sr., who is the host now to Congressman Duncan Hunter, Jr.'s family after he sold his house to pay back admittedly fraudulent personal campaign expenditures, which allegedly continued and are part of the indictment of Jr. and his wife.

Yeah, I'm changing the subject. I lost last night and so did you. So, the begging for Nooner Premium subscriptions will continue to keep this endeavor alive. We're all losers today and I won't get my four state quarters back. Somebody in South Carolina won it. People on both the right and the left are just hoping it wasn't Lindsey Graham.

POLITICAL IF WE DON'T LAUGH, WE'LL CRY (AND WE ALL NEED IT TODAY): "I love that Democrats are organizing voters in Honduras when we can't even organize voters in Pennsylvania." - Pod Save America's Jon Lovett last night on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert.

POLL POSITION: We have a new PPIC statewide poll coming out, which covers the races for governor and US Senator, as well as Proposition 6 (gas tax repeal/road construction) and Proposition 10 (rent control expansion). I'll have a memo for Nooner Premium at 9pm and toplines in tomorrow's Nooner. In addition to the PDI Vote-by-Mail Vote Tracker 'splainer webinar this afternoon, I now have plenty of afternoon/evening work ahead! I'm not complaining...keep it coming!

One of the three NYT/Siena College "live polls" have been completed and it confirms what we are seeing elsewhere, CA39 (Fullerton/Diamond Bar) is going down to the wire in a turnout battle. CA49 is essentially done and the topline results likely won't change much than reflected below, although the margin of error will go down and the demographic reflection will be better after around 50 more interviews are conducted. In CA10, 

INCOMPLETE: CA10 (Stanislaus): [n=287; continues tonight--results held for more responses because of weighting, but you can see the current status and geographic dispersion]

  • *Jeff Denham (R): 
  • Josh Harder (D): 
  • Undecided: 

COMPLETE: CD39 (Fullerton/Diamond Bar): [n=496; MOE +/- 4.6%]

  • Gil Cisneros (D): 47%
  • Young Kim (R): 46%
  • Undecided: 7%

Donald Trump job approval:

  • Approve: 45%
  • Disapprove: 51%
  • Don't know: 4%

INCOMPLETE: CA49 (S. Orange County/N. San Diego Coast): [n=457; +/-4.9%; continues tonight]

  • Diane Harkey (R): 38%
  • Mike Levin (D): 53%
  • Undecided: 8%

Donald Trump job approval:

  • Approve: 37%
  • Disapprove: 57%
  • Don't know: 6%

There's also a poll released yesterday conducted by progressive Change Research for the Fight Back California SuperPAC in CA22 (Tulare--Janz v. *Nunes). I haven't received enough methodological information to give it the normal treatment in this space, but here is the PAC's tweet as well as mine so you can see the digits. 

PROP 5 (Property tax valuation transfer for seniors): KQED's Scott Shafer explores Proposition 5, the California Association of Realtors ballot measure that would allow seniors to "carry forward" the valuation of an existing house when they buy one of higher value. I'll stop from opining beyond that, as you are smart Noonerites and can figure out the rationale of the sponsors.

EDITORIAL SCORECARD: The scorecard of newspaper editorials compiled by Klink/Forward Observer has been updated

A wise reader made a good point last week, which is why I didn't do it this year. The consolidation of newspapers has often created group think with the same corporations at best with no local analysis or difference, even though they serve very different geographies. That's true in Digital First Media/Bay Area News Group (East Bay Times and San Jose Mercury News) and Digital First's Southern California News Group (LA Daily News, Long Beach Press Telegram, OC Register, Riverside Press Enterprise, San Bernardino Sun, Torrance Daily Breeze). 

While criticizing the lack of independence for papers these days and absence of investment in the editorial department, credit is deserved in the state's biggest newspaper groups--McClatchy and the properties purchased from the thankfully now renamed Tronc. Within McClatchy, the three Bees (Sacramento, Fresno, and Modesto), the editorial boards reached different recommendations on rent control (10) and agriculture/water (3,12). The Fresno Bee sat out more given its complicated mix or urban/ag, which seems appropriate and independent.

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Times and San Diego Union Tribune reached different conclusions on five of the eleven measures on the ballot. 

Basically, if you're looking at the first page of the "scorecard," adjust the numbers accordingly. Group think editorials from newspaper groups should count as one. They don't follow the tradition of ed. board members of opinion and news writers interviewing advocates on both sides of measures. In fact, I am told by such advocates that many of these were not taking editorial board meetings for ballot measures this cycle and, in some cases, not even for local candidates.

I weep. Of course, we're part of the problem. We pay more attention to tweets from newspapers than we do editorial pages. Few people read editorials anymore and they now just serve campaigns that put clips in television commercials. Newspaper budget-writers too often don't see the value and civic responsibility of editorial pages. That civic responsibility used to be part of the gentleperson's agreement of placement of newspaper racks on city sidewalks, but even those have largely disappeared in many cities.

 

More after the jump...

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
    Job: California Medical Association: Director of Communications & Public Affairs (Sacramento)
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Job: The Council of State Governments: Policy Committees and Programs Coordinator (Sacramento)
  • Job: Lighthouse Public Affairs: Legislative Assistant (Sacramento)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Job: University of California Office of the President: Administrative Services Manager (Sacramento)
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: December 13-14, February 7-8
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

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CALIFORNIA LOVE: For CALmatters, Laurel Rosenhall asks the perennial political question in The Golden State--will SoCal get its mojo on and make its weight felt in the November election? Rosenhall writes "[D]on’t count on it."

Yup.

"Northern California is likely to continue to dominate for reasons that largely boil down to this: People in the Bay Area just vote a lot more than those in Los Angeles. Economic and demographic changes overlap with voting trends, together situating California’s political nucleus in the heavily Democratic region in and around San Francisco."

I have more thoughts on this, but they are embargoed (literally) until tomorrow.

CHOPPITY-CHOP PROPERTY TAX ROLL: Also for CALmatters, Dan Walters explores whether a deal can be reached on the now-qualified initiative to remove commercial and industrial property from the assessed valuation inflationary limitations of Proposition 13. If you understand what I mean by the last six words of the previous sentence, you ARE the 1%--of policy knowledge, not wealth.

Walters writes:

"The additional revenue from a “split roll” would be divvied up among K-12 schools, community colleges, cities, counties and other units of local government.

...

"Conventional political wisdom assumes that proponents will raise millions of dollars for the campaign to pass the measure, most likely from unions representing teachers and other public employees.

"In response, commercial real estate owners will at least match the proponents with many millions of campaign dollars. Both will inundate voters with a flood of propaganda via television, Internet and mailboxes.

I join Convention in that wisdom. But, while the Legislature is batting about the same as the Dodgers postseason average of .222 when it comes to ballot-stopping compromises. And, under current law, it is now on the ballot and would require a constitutional amendment before it is on the November 2020 ballot. Unlike the consumer privacy compromise, it can't be withdrawn. 

AD WARS: For Capitol Weekly, Chuck McFadden looks at the creative advertising/deception being used by interest groups advocating the passage or defeat of ballot measures on the November ballot. "Owners of television stations, advertising agencies and consultants are ordering new carpeting."

 

 

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Light the candles for Assemblymembers Sabrina Cervantes and Vince Fong!

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

  • The University of California Office of the President is looking for an Administrative Services Manager for its Sacramento Office. The position manages the office’s human resource administration, budget development and tracking, account, fiscal and inventory controls, space planning and technical support services, among other administrative duties. Bachelor's degree in related area or equivalent experience is required, plus five years of experience performing a range of administrative functions. Salary commensurate with experience. To apply, visit apptrkr.com/1319417 and search for requisition 20180461. 
  • Director of Communications & Public Affairs – California Medical Association (Sacramento)
    Reporting directly to the VP of Strategic Communications, this position will develop/execute earned media and public affairs strategies in support of physician-focused health care advocacy. Seeking an assertive and tactful self-starter with the ability to effectively generate and shape media coverage. Must be driven with the ability to adapt to evolving priorities and deadlines. On-the-record experience required; health care or political experience strongly desired. Great culture and amazing benefits with 401k match. $85-100k DOE. View the full description and apply at: www.cmadocs.org/careers.

  • The Council of State Governments is seeking a Policy Committees and Programs Coordinator in Sacramento, CA.
    Position contributes to the organization's policy objectives and engagement with regional policy-makers and other stakeholders. This includes coordinating and providing policy committee and program support.

    • Provides administrative, logistical and communications support to policy committees and programs staff.
    • Conducts entry-level policy research, follow-up activities, and provides information to members.
    • Maintains communication, conducts outreach and establishes rapport with committee staff, legislators, representatives of the private sector, and with federal, state and local government officials.

    View full posting at csg.applicantpro.com CSG is an Equal Opportunity Employer (Minorities/Females/Veterans/Disabled)

  • Administrative Assistant for Lobby Firm
    Qualifications: Experience working in a governmental affairs office, outstanding communications skills, working knowledge of the legislative process, calendaring and arranging travel, proficient in Microsoft Outlook, Excel and Word. Salary based on experience.

    Send resume to jmccoy@aaronread.com For questions, call Joelle at (916) 448-3444.

  • Lighthouse Public Affairs, Sacramento seeks FT Legislative Assistant to provide scheduling, technical and legislative support in fast-paced, collaborative environment. Salary range $40-50k w/benefits. Open until filled. Send resume and cover letter to sosan@lh-pa.com.

    Link to full job description: lh-pa.com/saclegasst.pdf

  • POSITION YOURSELF FOR LOBBYING SUCCESS IN JUST TWO DAYS. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, Capitol Seminars' Lobbying 101 & 201 courses offer you cost-effective, comprehensive coverage of California's Legislative, Budget and Regulatory processes, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies, along with an inside perspective on best practices for navigating these processes. You’ll refer repeatedly to our valuable curriculum materials long after the seminars are over. Next dates: December 13-14, February 7-8. More info / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. 
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit scag.ca.gov/opportunities/Pages/CareerOpportunities.aspx.
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.
    Details here: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117  
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122
  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu.
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Trump Tries To Spur Republicans To Vote With False Claims And Dystopian Warnings Of Democratic 'mob' Rule
Eli Stokols, Noah Bierman @
latimes.com
Yet there was Trump on the White House lawn Monday, promising away as reporters confronted him. He mistakenly described the legislative process and dismissed the time-consuming realities of passing a complicated tax package in Congress, as well as the simple fact that lawmakers have left town until after the election. Even as his claims fell flat, he stood his ground.

Top Senate Democrat says Trump is lying about preexisting conditions

Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer took aim at the president on Twitter after he asserted Republicans care more about a key part of Obama’s health-care law.

U.S. Revokes Visas Of Saudis Implicated In Khashoggi Killing
Associated Press @
latimes.com
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says the Trump administration is revoking the visas of some Saudi officials implicated in the death of writer Jamal Khashoggi.

Iranian President Faults 'protection Of America' For Khashoggi Death - Politico

President Donald Trump and his administration have been the target of much criticism in the weeks since Khashoggi's killing for their relaively hands-off approach with Saudi Arabia. The president initially appeared to defer to the Saudi government's denials of wrongdoing and has often played up the economic value to the U.S. of arms sales to the Arab kingdom, warning that upsetting that trade could be disastrous for American workers.

Still 1,000 Miles From The Border, Migrant Caravan Pauses In Mexico To Regroup
Patrick J. McDonnell @
latimes.com
With more than a thousand miles to go, a caravan of thousands of northbound migrants paused Tuesday in a small Mexican town to regroup.

Virginia lawmaker promises â

Rep. Dave Brat (R-Va.) looks directly at the camera and tells a whopper about his rival, Abigail Spanberger (D), and her plans for health care.