Around The Capitol

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Here are the current tallies of the picks of contest participants. These are all percentages of participants who predict the candidate will win, of course not how much candidates will win by. The page is updated live as participants join and make or update picks.

With 439 participants as of this morning, here are a some of the closest (<60%) projected wins:


DISTRICT UPDATES: I previously announced the awards:

  • First: $100 Amazon card or charitable contribution of your choice (pot in case of tie)
  • Second: $50 Amazon card or charitable contribution of your choice (pot in case of tie)
  • Third: $25 Amazon card or charitable contribution of your choice (pot in case of tie)

In addition, any Nooner Premium subscriber will have a $25 bonus applied to their prize in thanks for their support.

Here is your unique link. If you forward this message, remove the link since it belongs to you. New Nooner email subscribers (paid or unpaid) will be get their own link between now and the contest close.


You can come back to change your picks any time up to 12pm on Election Day--November 6.

Only the top 25 participants will be shown, but the individual race answers will not be listed. As I've done in the past, I will have a "Wisdom of the Crowds" page showing the percentages of each of the answers after there is a sufficient sample size of participants. 






  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 45 Democrats, 8 Republicans, 1 hell, I don't know
      - Dems hold 39; Reps hold 9
      - Dems pick up 6 leaners/likelies -- Denham (CA10), Knight (CA25)Open/Royce (CA39), Walters (CA45) and Open/Issa (CA49)
      - Toss-up of Rohrabacher (CA48)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 57-59 Democrats
      - Dems hold 55, with guaranteed pick-up AD76 Chávez/Open seat
      likely pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40)
      - tough holds for Dems in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60)
      - tough holds for Reps in Acosta (AD38) and Open/Allen (AD72), and Harper AD74. Reps holding in Baker (AD16).



GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 9/27-10/11/2018 has Democrats+7.2. (change from yesterday: D-1) 

For comparison purposes only: In the same period in 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4. 


  • US Senate control: 18.5% D, 80.7% R (Change from yesterday: D-0.8)
  • Senate seats: 48 D, 52 R (Change from yesterday: R+1)
  • CA US Senate projected vote: Feinstein: 59.9%, de León 40.1% (Change from yesterday: Feinstein -0.3)
  • House control: 83.7%% D, 16.3% R (Change from yesterday: D-0.8)
  • House seats: 234 D, 201 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • Popular vote margin: D+8.7% (Change from yesterday: D-0.1)
  • California delegation: 46 Democrats, 6 Republicans, 1 toss-up-CA39 (Royce/Open)


SPORTS PAGE: Well, that was a heckuva 13th inning win last night for the Dodgers to tie the series 2-2. I fell asleep in the 10th and happen to wake up for the 13th. Game 5 is today at 2:05pm on FS1. Kershaw will be on the mound for the Dodgers.

Happy Humpday! The conversation at PPIC between U.S. Senate Dianne Feinstein (D) and Kevin de León (D) is occurring in San Francisco as you receive this. (live stream via KQED)

POLL POSITION: We have new polls this morning: USC Dornsife/LAT poll (crosstabs) and SurveyUSA:

Numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

USC Dornsife/LAT

Governor (likely voters):

  • John Cox (R): 31% (27%, 3% lean)
  • Gavin Newsom (D): 54% (48%, 6% lean)
  • Undecided: 15%

California right direction/wrong track:

  • Right direction: 53%
  • Wrong track: likely voters 47%

Trump job approval rating:

  • Strongly approve: 13%
  • Somewhat approve: 15%
  • Neither approve nor disapprove: 5%
  • Somewhat disapprove: 12%
  • Strongly disapprove: 55%

Jerry Brown job approval rating:

  • Strongly approve: 20%
  • Somewhat approve: 33%
  • Neither approve nor disapprove: 9%
  • Somewhat disapprove: 12%
  • Strongly disapprove: 25%

Most important issues among likely voters:

  • Jobs and economic development
  • Fiscal issues like taxes and state spending
  • Healthcare
  • Education

Split roll property tax ballot measure:

  • Strongly support: 20%
  • Somewhat support: 27%
  • Somewhat oppose: 10%
  • Strongly oppose: 12%
  • Haven't heard enough to say: 31%

Embargoed and coming in the next few days are:

  • U.S. Senate
  • Proposition 6
  • Proposition 10
  • 2020 Democratic primary presidential preference (among registered, affiliated, and leaning Dems)

(Methodology: n=794 likely voters; 09/17-10/14/18; online pre-identified panel; English/Spanish; MOE +/-4% (larger for subgroups))

The LAT's Phil Willon writes up the results:

Democratic Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom enters the final weeks of California’s 2018 governor’s race with a solid lead over Republican businessman John Cox, according to a new USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll.

The survey’s findings provide little hope to Cox’s long-shot campaign in the left-leaning state as vote-by-mail ballots begin arriving at homes and Newsom, with an immense fundraising advantage, floods televisions and cellphones across the state with a steady stream of campaign ads.


The survey’s findings provide a different picture of the race than a poll released in late September by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California. That survey found Cox on the rise and trailing Newsom by 12 percentage points.

According to the poll, Newsom leads Cox among both men and women, Latinos and across voter income and education levels. The former San Francisco mayor also dominates California’s two biggest population centers, the Bay Area and Los Angeles County, home to just under half the voters in the state.


Not surprisingly, both candidates had strong support from voters in their own parties. Newsom had more robust support among voters who registered as “no party preference,” although nearly a third of those independent voters remained undecided, the poll found.

SurveyUSA (likely voters): 


  • John Cox (R): 35%
  • Gavin Newsom (D): 52%
  • Undecided: 14%

U.S. Senate:

  • Dianne Feinstein (D): 40%
  • Kevin de León (D): 26%
  • Undecided: 39%

Important note: a "will not vote in this race" option was not available, which is very important in one-party races, as I discussed yesterday.

Proposition 1 (Veterans' and affordable housing bond):

  • Yes: 62%
  • No: 21%
  • Undecided: 18% 

Proposition 6 (gas tax/road construction repeal):

  • Yes: 58%
  • No: 29&
  • Undecided: 13%

Important: this did not include the official title that appears on the ballot, which is "Eliminates Certain Road Repair And Transportation Funding. Requires Certain Fuel Taxes And Vehicle Fees Be Approved By The Electorate. Initiative Constitutional Amendment."

SurveyUSA used the following question: "Next, Proposition 6, a constitutional amendment which would repeal gasoline and diesel taxes, and vehicle fees, that were enacted in 2017 and would require any future fuel taxes be approved by voters. A YES vote on Prop 6 would repeal fuel tax increases that were enacted in 2017, including the Road Repaid and Accountability Act of 2017. A NO vote on Prop 6 would keep the fuel taxes imposed in 2017 by the California legislature in place, and would allow the legislature to impose whatever fees and taxes it approved in the future, provided 2/3 of the CA House and 2/3 of the CA Senate approved. On Proposition 6, how do you vote?"

I don't know if "Repaid" instead of repair appeared in the actual poll questionnaire. Beyond that, this is a HEAVILY skewed question. 

Seriously, as the kids type on their phones "WTF" with this phrase "A NO vote on Prop 6 would keep the fuel taxes imposed in 2017 by the California legislature in place, and would  allow the legislature to impose whatever fees and taxes it approved in the future provided 2/3 of the CA House and 2/3 of the CA Senate approved. On Proposition 6, how do you vote?"

It doesn't say anything about what the taxes/fees are for and suggests all fees and taxes can be increased with a 2/3 law by the Legislature. Uh, the Legislature can't touch property taxes without a vote of the people. 

Meanwhile, the Union-Tribune went to the presses with this. 

SDUT - gas tax


If you are in media or politics, regardless of where you stand on Prop. 6, you have to admit the question was crap as is putting it above the fold. As a subscriber to SDUT, I'm pissed at this and I neither drive nor am affiliated with Prop. 6. Bad polling, bad "journalism."

Proposition 7 (daylight savings time):

  • Yes: 58%
  • No: 21%
  • Undecided: 21%

Why they skipped the water bond (3), children's hospital bond (4), and property tax valuation transfer (5) measures and instead polled on daylight savings time is absolutely beyond me...few people give a damn about DST (although there are studies...) and it requires an act of Congress to take effect.

Proposition 8 (profit limits, regulation of kidney dialysis centers):

  • Yes: 47%
  • No: 34%
  • Undecided: 19%

Proposition 10 (repeal of Costa Hawkins; rent control flexibility for local gov'ts):

  • Yes: 35%
  • No: 46%
  • Undecided: 18%

Proposition 11 (private ambulance employees: meal breaks):

  • Yes: 54%
  • No: 26%
  • Undecided: 20% 

President Trump job approval: 

  • Approve: 34%
  • Disapprove: 57%
  • Don't know: 9%

Jerry Brown job approval: 

  • Approve: 46%
  • Disapprove: 39%
  • Don't know: 15%

(Methodology: n=762 likely voters; 10/12-10/14/18; online pre-identified panel; MOE +/-4.8+% (larger for subgroups))

For the San Diego Union-Tribune that commissioned the poll along with other media outlets, Kristina Davis writes that the gas tax repeal is not buoying support for John Cox as much as Republicans hoped.

THE OC: AP's Michael W. Blood looks at the changing demographics in Orange County and the impact on politics. 

Adding to yesterday's numbers, below are where two more Orange County districts are, with the changes between the state report last month and the Orange County ROV report posted Monday.

Registrations continue to increase robustly. However, it's unclear what share of these were through the DMV and how many were "affirmative" registrations. By affirmative, I mean that the registrant either filled out a paper registration form or went online to register. The period between 09/07 and 10/15 did include National Voter Registration Day, which was September 25. There was a great deal of nonpartisan publicity, particularly on college campuses.

The Secretary of State's office reports that 246,797 Californians registered or updated their registrations online between September 19 and October 1. Updates can be a change in party, name, or a physical move that may affect registrations by district. That number does not include paper registrations processed by counties, and that number is likely significant in the highly competitive congressional districts that have strong ground campaigns. We won't see the next full state report until a few days before the election.


Voter Registration Update
Congressional District 48 (Huntington Beach)
   Total Dem Rep NPP Other 
9/7/18  392,104  116,348   154,544  103,144  18,068 
10/15/18 401,420  119,352  155,587  108,259  18,422 
Change 9,516  13,004   1,043  5,115  354 
% 2.43% 2.58% 0.67%  4.96%  1.96%
Sources: SOS, OCROV      


Okay, CA48 insiders, stop giggling over the total voters ending with 420 as of Monday morning.  


Voter Registration Update
Assembly District 72 (Seal Beach)
   Total Dem Rep NPP Other 
9/7/18  232,417  75,273  84,514  63,365  9,265 
10/15/18 237,693  76,780  84,848  66,267  9,798 
Change 5,276  1,507   334  2,902  533 
% 2.27% 2.00% 0.40%  4.58%  5.75%
Sources: SOS, OCROV      

INITIATIVE SCORECARD: The scorecard of newspaper editorial positions on the ballot measures composed by Klink/CA Forward has been updated. 

BIG IE: SD22 (San Gabriel Valley): "The Coalition to Restore California's Middle Class, Including Energy Companies Who Produce Gas, Oil, Jobs and Pay Taxes" is up with a $1.3 million television independent expenditure supporting Susan Rubio (D) against former Assemblyman Mike Eng (D). The "coalition" is made up of California's biggest oil producers--Chevron, Tesoro, Valero, and independent California Resources Corporation. It's clearly a play to get another vote in the Democratic caucus that would oppose an oil severance tax.

While Jerry Brown has been tepid to the oil severance tax, some believe that Gavin Newsom might be more open to it for certain purposes. 

DOING THE LAUNDRY: The California Democratic Party sent $150,000 each yesterday to its candidates in AD16 (Tri-valley: Rebecca Bauer-Kahan), AD40 (Redlands-James Ramos), and AD60 (Corona-Sabrina Cervantes).

Meanwhile, former Assembly Speaker Fabian Núñez sent $200,000 from his "State Treasurer 2022" account to the California Democratic Party. Núñez is not running for state treasurer, and Fiona Ma (D) will almost certainly be running for re-election in 2022. Núñez, meanwhile, is a partner in international lobbying/public affairs powerhouse Mercury. While Núñez is not a registered lobbyist, he is on Capitol Weekly's list of the Top 100 most influential non-elected figures in Sacramento, and his contribution will not go unnoticed.

Núñez had been keeping the money in a 2018 committee for treasurer, but moved the remaining $2.94 million to the new 2022 account in August.

The "contribution" to the party is legal. The party's contributions far above the individual/corporation/PAC limit are legal. Núñez just can't tell the CDP where to spend the money. Of course, anybody who reads this space knows where the party is playing. And, Núñez has far more available fromwhere that $200k came.

It's all in the game, yo'. Playas gotta play...


More after the jump...


Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Lighthouse Public Affairs: Legislative Assistant (Sacramento)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 



The Political Centrist in the Time of Trump Trailer

THE POLITICAL CENTRIST IN THE TIME OF TRUMP documentary asks, why are our politics so angry, polarized, partisan, biased, petty, perturbed, sexist, uncompromising and fraught with financial paybacks?
View for free on Amazon Prime.


DMV/VOTER REG: For CALmatters, Laurel Rosenhall looks at what has gone wrong with the implementation of "moter voter" at California's Department of Motor Vehicles, which has led to tens of thousands of incorrect/invalid registrations. Those registrations have allegedly been cancelled, but accusations of voter fraud will hang over the November election. Rosenhall writes:

"What DMV officials didn’t acknowledge—and still haven’t—was what may be the underlying problem: The agency rolled out a massive new voter-registration effort with a piecemeal computer system.

Instead of the properly integrated computer program that was needed, the agency launched in April with disparate computer systems that didn’t automatically link together, according to advocates who have been working closely with the DMV on the new “motor voter” system. That meant DMV workers had to manually link information from various systems during transactions between April and September, when an integrated system was put in place, said Kathay Feng, executive director of California Common Cause.

“We gave them plenty of time. We increased their budget twice in order to implement this. We allowed them to delay implementation because we wanted it done right,” said Assemblywoman Lorena Gonzalez Fletcher of San Diego.

“When they told us they were ready, obviously they weren’t quite ready.”


Probolsky Research


#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Senator Ed Hernandez, Sergio Carrillo, and Brad Torgan!




Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing for $40/week.

  • Administrative Assistant for Lobby Firm
    Qualifications: Experience working in a governmental affairs office, outstanding communications skills, working knowledge of the legislative process, calendaring and arranging travel, proficient in Microsoft Outlook, Excel and Word. Salary based on experience.

    Send resume to For questions, call Joelle at (916) 448-3444.

  • Lighthouse Public Affairs, Sacramento seeks FT Legislative Assistant to provide scheduling, technical and legislative support in fast-paced, collaborative environment. Salary range $40-50k w/benefits. Open until filled. Send resume and cover letter to

  • Link to full job description:

  • POSITION YOURSELF FOR LOBBYING SUCCESS IN JUST TWO DAYS. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, Capitol Seminars' Lobbying 101 & 201 courses offer you cost-effective, comprehensive coverage of California's Legislative, Budget and Regulatory processes, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies, along with an inside perspective on best practices for navigating these processes. You’ll refer repeatedly to our valuable curriculum materials long after the seminars are over. Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8. More info / registration: or 916-442-5009.
  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here:
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE.
  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.
    Details here:  
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details: 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at or contact us at
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu:


California's Tax Revenues Beat Expectations By $1 Billion Over The Summer Months
John Myers @
Californians paid some $1 billion in taxes above official projections during the first three months of the state’s fiscal year, in what could be a major boost to the government’s bottom line once Gov. Jerry Brown leaves office in January.

Berkeley City Council Candidate Cecilia Rosales' Campaign Materials Stir Controversy
Wright saw his photo on campaign mailers when they were distributed and passed out during an ASUC Senate meeting Oct. 10.

Nevada Brothel Owner And Republican State Legislature Candidate Dies - Politico

Dennis Hof was the Republican nominee this year for a heavily GOP legislative district and owned a handful of brothels in Nevada, the only state that allows them to legally operate. | AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki

Trump Trusts Saudis Over Reporting, Intel — Craig’s Gift — Midterms Mania — New Npr News Chief- Politico Media
ARPAIO SUING THE NYT: "Joe Arpaio, the controversial former sheriff of Maricopa County, Arizona, has filed a libel suit against The New York Times and a member of its editorial board," reports POLITICO's Quint Forgey. Arpaio is claiming a Times opinion piece written by Michelle Cottle was defamatory. Times spokeswoman Eileen Murphy responded: "We intend to vigorously defend against the lawsuit."

Massive Twitter Data Release Sheds Light On Russia’s Trump Strategy - Politico

Twitter and Facebook have been widely criticized since the 2016 election for not doing more to stem the abuse of their platforms by Russians and other foreign actors hoping to manipulate the American political landscape. | Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

Democrats Are Out-raising Republicans By Millions In California's Most Competitive House Races
Democratic candidates in California's seven most competitive congressional races far out-raised their Republican rivals. Five of the candidates go into the home stretch of the midterm election with more than $1 million in the bank; the only Republican is incumbent Jeff Denham in the Central Valley.

Trump Says He Has 'natural Instinct For Science' When It Comes To Climate Change - Politico

President Donald Trump told the Associated Press that he has a "natural instinct for science" that informs his understanding of climate change and allows him to see through the political bias that he accused some scientists of holding.

Paralyzing Polio-like Illness Affecting Mainly Children Is Confirmed In 22 States, Cdc Says
Lena H. Sun @
More than 90% of the confirmed cases have been in children 18 and younger, with the average age being 4 years old.

McConnell calls deficit â
signing up you agree to our @

The Senate GOP leader’s comments came one day after the White House reported that the government ran a deficit of $779 billion in the recent fiscal year, a 17 percent increase.