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THE NOONER NOVEMBER 2018 ELECTION CONTEST
Here are the current tallies of the picks of contest participants. These are all percentages of participants who predict the candidate will win, of course not how much candidates will win by. The page is updated live as participants join and make or update picks.
With 439 participants as of this morning, here are a some of the closest (<60%) projected wins:
DISTRICT UPDATES: I previously announced the awards:
In addition, any Nooner Premium subscriber will have a $25 bonus applied to their prize in thanks for their support.
Here is your unique link. If you forward this message, remove the link since it belongs to you. New Nooner email subscribers (paid or unpaid) will be get their own link between now and the contest close.
You can come back to change your picks any time up to 12pm on Election Day--November 6.
Only the top 25 participants will be shown, but the individual race answers will not be listed. As I've done in the past, I will have a "Wisdom of the Crowds" page showing the percentages of each of the answers after there is a sufficient sample size of participants.
GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 9/27-10/11/2018 has Democrats+7.2. (change from yesterday: D-1)
For comparison purposes only: In the same period in 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4.
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:
SPORTS PAGE: Well, that was a heckuva 13th inning win last night for the Dodgers to tie the series 2-2. I fell asleep in the 10th and happen to wake up for the 13th. Game 5 is today at 2:05pm on FS1. Kershaw will be on the mound for the Dodgers.
Happy Humpday! The conversation at PPIC between U.S. Senate Dianne Feinstein (D) and Kevin de León (D) is occurring in San Francisco as you receive this. (live stream via KQED)
Numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Governor (likely voters):
California right direction/wrong track:
Trump job approval rating:
Jerry Brown job approval rating:
Most important issues among likely voters:
Split roll property tax ballot measure:
Embargoed and coming in the next few days are:
(Methodology: n=794 likely voters; 09/17-10/14/18; online pre-identified panel; English/Spanish; MOE +/-4% (larger for subgroups))
The LAT's Phil Willon writes up the results:
Democratic Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom enters the final weeks of California’s 2018 governor’s race with a solid lead over Republican businessman John Cox, according to a new USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll.
The survey’s findings provide little hope to Cox’s long-shot campaign in the left-leaning state as vote-by-mail ballots begin arriving at homes and Newsom, with an immense fundraising advantage, floods televisions and cellphones across the state with a steady stream of campaign ads.
The survey’s findings provide a different picture of the race than a poll released in late September by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California. That survey found Cox on the rise and trailing Newsom by 12 percentage points.
According to the poll, Newsom leads Cox among both men and women, Latinos and across voter income and education levels. The former San Francisco mayor also dominates California’s two biggest population centers, the Bay Area and Los Angeles County, home to just under half the voters in the state.
Not surprisingly, both candidates had strong support from voters in their own parties. Newsom had more robust support among voters who registered as “no party preference,” although nearly a third of those independent voters remained undecided, the poll found.
SurveyUSA (likely voters):
Important note: a "will not vote in this race" option was not available, which is very important in one-party races, as I discussed yesterday.
Proposition 1 (Veterans' and affordable housing bond):
Proposition 6 (gas tax/road construction repeal):
Important: this did not include the official title that appears on the ballot, which is "Eliminates Certain Road Repair And Transportation Funding. Requires Certain Fuel Taxes And Vehicle Fees Be Approved By The Electorate. Initiative Constitutional Amendment."
SurveyUSA used the following question: "Next, Proposition 6, a constitutional amendment which would repeal gasoline and diesel taxes, and vehicle fees, that were enacted in 2017 and would require any future fuel taxes be approved by voters. A YES vote on Prop 6 would repeal fuel tax increases that were enacted in 2017, including the Road Repaid and Accountability Act of 2017. A NO vote on Prop 6 would keep the fuel taxes imposed in 2017 by the California legislature in place, and would allow the legislature to impose whatever fees and taxes it approved in the future, provided 2/3 of the CA House and 2/3 of the CA Senate approved. On Proposition 6, how do you vote?"
I don't know if "Repaid" instead of repair appeared in the actual poll questionnaire. Beyond that, this is a HEAVILY skewed question.
Seriously, as the kids type on their phones "WTF" with this phrase "A NO vote on Prop 6 would keep the fuel taxes imposed in 2017 by the California legislature in place, and would allow the legislature to impose whatever fees and taxes it approved in the future provided 2/3 of the CA House and 2/3 of the CA Senate approved. On Proposition 6, how do you vote?"
Meanwhile, the Union-Tribune went to the presses with this.
If you are in media or politics, regardless of where you stand on Prop. 6, you have to admit the question was crap as is putting it above the fold. As a subscriber to SDUT, I'm pissed at this and I neither drive nor am affiliated with Prop. 6. Bad polling, bad "journalism."
Proposition 7 (daylight savings time):
Why they skipped the water bond (3), children's hospital bond (4), and property tax valuation transfer (5) measures and instead polled on daylight savings time is absolutely beyond me...few people give a damn about DST (although there are studies...) and it requires an act of Congress to take effect.
Proposition 8 (profit limits, regulation of kidney dialysis centers):
Proposition 10 (repeal of Costa Hawkins; rent control flexibility for local gov'ts):
Proposition 11 (private ambulance employees: meal breaks):
President Trump job approval:
Jerry Brown job approval:
(Methodology: n=762 likely voters; 10/12-10/14/18; online pre-identified panel; MOE +/-4.8+% (larger for subgroups))
For the San Diego Union-Tribune that commissioned the poll along with other media outlets, Kristina Davis writes that the gas tax repeal is not buoying support for John Cox as much as Republicans hoped.
THE OC: AP's Michael W. Blood looks at the changing demographics in Orange County and the impact on politics.
Adding to yesterday's numbers, below are where two more Orange County districts are, with the changes between the state report last month and the Orange County ROV report posted Monday.
Registrations continue to increase robustly. However, it's unclear what share of these were through the DMV and how many were "affirmative" registrations. By affirmative, I mean that the registrant either filled out a paper registration form or went online to register. The period between 09/07 and 10/15 did include National Voter Registration Day, which was September 25. There was a great deal of nonpartisan publicity, particularly on college campuses.
The Secretary of State's office reports that 246,797 Californians registered or updated their registrations online between September 19 and October 1. Updates can be a change in party, name, or a physical move that may affect registrations by district. That number does not include paper registrations processed by counties, and that number is likely significant in the highly competitive congressional districts that have strong ground campaigns. We won't see the next full state report until a few days before the election.
Okay, CA48 insiders, stop giggling over the total voters ending with 420 as of Monday morning.
BIG IE: SD22 (San Gabriel Valley): "The Coalition to Restore California's Middle Class, Including Energy Companies Who Produce Gas, Oil, Jobs and Pay Taxes" is up with a $1.3 million television independent expenditure supporting Susan Rubio (D) against former Assemblyman Mike Eng (D). The "coalition" is made up of California's biggest oil producers--Chevron, Tesoro, Valero, and independent California Resources Corporation. It's clearly a play to get another vote in the Democratic caucus that would oppose an oil severance tax.
While Jerry Brown has been tepid to the oil severance tax, some believe that Gavin Newsom might be more open to it for certain purposes.
DOING THE LAUNDRY: The California Democratic Party sent $150,000 each yesterday to its candidates in AD16 (Tri-valley: Rebecca Bauer-Kahan), AD40 (Redlands-James Ramos), and AD60 (Corona-Sabrina Cervantes).
Meanwhile, former Assembly Speaker Fabian Núñez sent $200,000 from his "State Treasurer 2022" account to the California Democratic Party. Núñez is not running for state treasurer, and Fiona Ma (D) will almost certainly be running for re-election in 2022. Núñez, meanwhile, is a partner in international lobbying/public affairs powerhouse Mercury. While Núñez is not a registered lobbyist, he is on Capitol Weekly's list of the Top 100 most influential non-elected figures in Sacramento, and his contribution will not go unnoticed.
Núñez had been keeping the money in a 2018 committee for treasurer, but moved the remaining $2.94 million to the new 2022 account in August.
The "contribution" to the party is legal. The party's contributions far above the individual/corporation/PAC limit are legal. Núñez just can't tell the CDP where to spend the money. Of course, anybody who reads this space knows where the party is playing. And, Núñez has far more available fromwhere that $200k came.
It's all in the game, yo'. Playas gotta play...
More after the jump...
DMV/VOTER REG: For CALmatters, Laurel Rosenhall looks at what has gone wrong with the implementation of "moter voter" at California's Department of Motor Vehicles, which has led to tens of thousands of incorrect/invalid registrations. Those registrations have allegedly been cancelled, but accusations of voter fraud will hang over the November election. Rosenhall writes:
"What DMV officials didn’t acknowledge—and still haven’t—was what may be the underlying problem: The agency rolled out a massive new voter-registration effort with a piecemeal computer system.
Instead of the properly integrated computer program that was needed, the agency launched in April with disparate computer systems that didn’t automatically link together, according to advocates who have been working closely with the DMV on the new “motor voter” system. That meant DMV workers had to manually link information from various systems during transactions between April and September, when an integrated system was put in place, said Kathay Feng, executive director of California Common Cause.
“We gave them plenty of time. We increased their budget twice in order to implement this. We allowed them to delay implementation because we wanted it done right,” said Assemblywoman Lorena Gonzalez Fletcher of San Diego.
“When they told us they were ready, obviously they weren’t quite ready.”
#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Senator Ed Hernandez, Sergio Carrillo, and Brad Torgan!
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TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
California's Tax Revenues Beat Expectations By $1 Billion Over The Summer Months
John Myers @ latimes.com
Californians paid some $1 billion in taxes above official projections during the first three months of the state’s fiscal year, in what could be a major boost to the government’s bottom line once Gov. Jerry Brown leaves office in January.
Berkeley City Council Candidate Cecilia Rosales' Campaign Materials Stir Controversy
Wright saw his photo on campaign mailers when they were distributed and passed out during an ASUC Senate meeting Oct. 10.
Nevada Brothel Owner And Republican State Legislature Candidate Dies - Politico
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS @
Dennis Hof was the Republican nominee this year for a heavily GOP legislative district and owned a handful of brothels in Nevada, the only state that allows them to legally operate. | AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki
Trump Trusts Saudis Over Reporting, Intel — Craig’s Gift — Midterms Mania — New Npr News Chief- Politico Media
ARPAIO SUING THE NYT: "Joe Arpaio, the controversial former sheriff of Maricopa County, Arizona, has filed a libel suit against The New York Times and a member of its editorial board," reports POLITICO's Quint Forgey. Arpaio is claiming a Times opinion piece written by Michelle Cottle was defamatory. Times spokeswoman Eileen Murphy responded: "We intend to vigorously defend against the lawsuit."
Massive Twitter Data Release Sheds Light On Russia’s Trump Strategy - Politico
Twitter and Facebook have been widely criticized since the 2016 election for not doing more to stem the abuse of their platforms by Russians and other foreign actors hoping to manipulate the American political landscape. | Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images
Democrats Are Out-raising Republicans By Millions In California's Most Competitive House Races
Democratic candidates in California's seven most competitive congressional races far out-raised their Republican rivals. Five of the candidates go into the home stretch of the midterm election with more than $1 million in the bank; the only Republican is incumbent Jeff Denham in the Central Valley.
Trump Says He Has 'natural Instinct For Science' When It Comes To Climate Change - Politico
President Donald Trump told the Associated Press that he has a "natural instinct for science" that informs his understanding of climate change and allows him to see through the political bias that he accused some scientists of holding.
Paralyzing Polio-like Illness Affecting Mainly Children Is Confirmed In 22 States, Cdc Says
Lena H. Sun @ latimes.com
More than 90% of the confirmed cases have been in children 18 and younger, with the average age being 4 years old.
McConnell calls deficit â
signing up you agree to our @
The Senate GOP leaderâÂÂs comments came one day after the White House reported that the government ran a deficit of $779 billion in the recent fiscal year, a 17 percent increase.