If you don't see images in this message, click "Display Images" or the equivalent.
Having trouble viewing this email? Click here
Receive this as a forward? Get the Nooner in your e-mail box.

Become a Nooner Premium subscriber to access exclusive election analysis and back end data. | Follow @scottlay

Advertise in The Nooner to reach over 8,000 readers

 

REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

 

THE NOONER NOVEMBER 2018 ELECTION CONTEST

Here are the current tallies of the picks of contest participants. These are all percentages of participants who predict the candidate will win, of course not how much candidates will win by. The page is updated live as participants join and make or update picks.

With 439 participants as of this morning, here are a some of the closest (<60%) projected wins:

 

IC Steve Poizner (N) 53.66%
IC Ricardo Lara (D) 46.34%

 

CD39 Gil Cisneros (D) 58.97%
CD39 Young Kim (R) 41.03%

 

SD14 Andy Vidak (R) 56.61%
SD14 Melissa Hurtado (D) 43.39%

 

SD22 Susan Rubio (D) 56.08%
SD22 Michael Eng (D) 43.92%

 

AD38 Dante Acosta (R) 52.86%
AD38 Christy Smith (D) 47.14%

 

AD72 Josh Lowenthal (D) 58.79%
AD72 Tyler Diep (R) 41.21%


DISTRICT UPDATES: 
I previously announced the awards:

  • First: $100 Amazon card or charitable contribution of your choice (pot in case of tie)
  • Second: $50 Amazon card or charitable contribution of your choice (pot in case of tie)
  • Third: $25 Amazon card or charitable contribution of your choice (pot in case of tie)

In addition, any Nooner Premium subscriber will have a $25 bonus applied to their prize in thanks for their support.

Here is your unique link. If you forward this message, remove the link since it belongs to you. New Nooner email subscribers (paid or unpaid) will be get their own link between now and the contest close.

##CONTESTLINK##

You can come back to change your picks any time up to 12pm on Election Day--November 6.

Only the top 25 participants will be shown, but the individual race answers will not be listed. As I've done in the past, I will have a "Wisdom of the Crowds" page showing the percentages of each of the answers after there is a sufficient sample size of participants. 

 

advertisement

We Stand With Seniors

reserve this space

 

E-21

 

BALANCE OF POWER: 

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 45 Democrats, 8 Republicans, 1 hell, I don't know
      - Dems hold 39; Reps hold 9
      - Dems pick up 6 leaners/likelies -- Denham (CA10), Knight (CA25)Open/Royce (CA39), Walters (CA45) and Open/Issa (CA49)
      - Toss-up of Rohrabacher (CA48)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 57-59 Democrats
      - Dems hold 55, with guaranteed pick-up AD76 Chávez/Open seat
      likely pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40)
      - tough holds for Dems in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60)
      - tough holds for Reps in Acosta (AD38) and Open/Allen (AD72), and Harper AD74. Reps holding in Baker (AD16).

 

advertisement

Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 9/27-10/11/2018 has Democrats+7.3. (change from yesterday: no change) 

For comparison purposes only: In the same period in 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4. 

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:

  • US Senate control: 19.3% D, 80.7% R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • Senate seats: 48 D, 52 R (Change from yesterday: R+1)
  • CA US Senate projected vote: Feinstein: 60.4%, de León 39.8% (Change from yesterday: Feinstein +0.4)
  • House control: 84.5%% D, 18.5% R (Change from yesterday: D+5)
  • House seats: 234 D, 201 R (Change from yesterday: D+2)
  • Popular vote margin: D+8.8% (Change from yesterday: D+0.2)
  • California delegation: 46 Democrats, 6 Republicans, 1 toss-up-CA39 (Royce/Open)

 

SPORTS PAGE: Wisconsin stomped all over California last night, with the Brewers beating the Dodgers 4-0 and the Packers closing out the game against the Niners with a field goal as the clock ran out to win 33-30. Many Niners fans are already wishing the clock had run out on this season. Californians did have pride in Packers QB's play down the stretch as the Butte College and Cal alum engineered a perfect drive. Dodgers again host the Brewers for game 4 at 6:09pm (FS1).

EAR TICKLER: The State Senate's Democratic Caucus has a new podcast, "Then There’s California" (iTunesStitcherSpotifyGooglePlayTuneIn). Several will be released each week, co-hosted by Communications Director Brian Green with a member of the caucus and discussing major policy issues. The inaugural discusses California's up-and-down past, 21st century resurgence and what it portends for America's future.

 

Federal fundraising third quarter - top ten

Happy Tuesday! We are three weeks out. After writing today, I know I am missing a lot. My head has been in campaign finance reports and voter registration data. Catch up on headlines at Rough and Tumble.

Last night was the third quarter filing deadline for federal PACs and candidate committees. While you were watching sports, the rest of us were refreshing the FEC's page waiting for the reports to trickle in. As usual and also common with state reports, several came in within the last half hour even though campaigns had put out releases a couple of weeks ago if they had something to tout about their totals.

Not unexpectedly, the Democratic challengers in the closely watched congressional races hit it out of the park, particularly considering none of them have held elected office before. I sent out the totals after the 12am EDT close to Nooner Premium last night, but here are some of the headlines from the numbers.

  • Nine Democratic challengers in California (CA04-Morse, CA10-Harder, CA21-Cox, CA22-Janz, CA25-Hill, CA45-Porter, CA48-Rouda, CA49-Levin, CA50-Campa-Najja) raised more than the candidates for U.S. Senate--combined! Obviously, Kevin de León is struggling with fundraising and raised $254k. Dianne Feinstein isn't really focused on it and doesn't need to given her personal wealth. She raised $657k in Q3, but has cash on hand of $4.1 million after "loaning" her campaign $8 million over the last year.

    The only one who didn't raise over the combined Senate amount was CA39 candidate Gil Cisneros, who is personally wealthy from a lottery win. Cisneros loaned his campaign $3.5 million in the third quarter, closed the period with $283k cash on hand, and will likely be going to the bank again before Election Day. 
  • Among the ten most closely watched races (the above, plus CA39), Democratic candidates raised $22.7 million (excluding candidate loans) compared to $8.3m by their Republican counterparts. Democrats also spent much more heavily as they introduced themselves to voters. Dem candidates in these ten districts spent $24.6m compared to $9.6m by GOP candidates.
  • Because many Republican incumbents entered the cycle with war chests built up over years in Congress and since Dems spent so heavily, cash on hand isn't far apart. As of September 30, these Dem candidates had $14.1 and Republicans had $12m.

    The FEC is still doing data conversion, so in-depth analysis is a challenge. However, it appears that challengers have a much higher percentage of small donors as a share of their receipts (as usual), which includes two GOP challengers cited below. This is important as they are most likely came online and can be hit up again before Election Day with little candidate time used making calls (language warning)
  • CA50: Embattled Republican congressman Duncan Hunter, Jr. did not have a good third quarter as his legal troubles mounted. Few donors wanted their names on federal campaign finance reports when a trial over the use of campaign funds by Hunter and his wife begins in late November. Hunter raised only $133k in the third quarter, spent $238k, and ended the period with cash on hand of $247k. His competitor Ammar Campa-Najjar raised ten times as much and ended the quarter with nearly three times as much cash on hand. He spent more money on legal services than his one "TV ad" buy for $35,001.

    Contrast Hunter's $133k in receipts to fellow Republican Omar Navarro's $455,971 in the 3rd quarter. Navarro is running against Maxine Waters in a D +43.47, district. Most money went back into fundraising and, well, $15,847 as a salary to the candidate.

You can get the Election Premium memos through election day with a one-month subscription for $5 or a subscription through January 1, 2020 with two months free for $49.99.

The Target Book's Rob Pyers finds something for Republicans to be happy about:

CA16 (Fresno)
@RepJimCosta (D)
RCPT 412,300
EXPN 847,854
COH 715,914

@ElizabethHeng (R)
RCPT 686,755
EXPN 495,763
COH 306,313

CA24 (Santa Barbara/Ventura)
@RepCarbajal (D)
RCPT 326,615
EXPN 589,146
COH 1,301,735

@JustinFareed (R)
RCPT 458,966
EXPN 531,447
COH 170,307

 

GRAY DAVIS ALUMS: Alumni of those that worked for Gov. Gray Davis will be gathering for a 20 year reunion November 9th in Sacramento. Carol Dahmen, former Deputy Communications Director, and Garry South, who led the two successful campaigns, are trying to make sure all alumni know about the celebration.  For more information please reach out to Carol at carolfdahmen@gmail.com.

 

More after the jump...

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Lighthouse Public Affairs: Legislative Assistant (Sacramento)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

advertisement


The Political Centrist in the Time of Trump Trailer

THE POLITICAL CENTRIST IN THE TIME OF TRUMP documentary asks, why are our politics so angry, polarized, partisan, biased, petty, perturbed, sexist, uncompromising and fraught with financial paybacks?
View for free on Amazon Prime.

 

U.S. SENATE: Joe Mathews ponders how many voters will bypass voting on the two-Dem Senate race between Dianne Feinstein and Kevin de León.

In the September PPIC poll, 23% of likely voters said they planned to skip the race. In 2016 when Kamala Harris (D) faced Loretta Sanchez (D), there was a 16.2% drop-off, so 23% does not seem unreasonable in a mid-term election, although Feinstein historically is more palatable for moderate Republican voters, although she may have pushed some away as she worked to head of the challenge from the left of State Senator Kevin de León

In contrast, there was only a 2.94% drop-off from turnout to presidential votes and an 8.2% drop-off among votes for Congress. Basically, 1.17 million voters voted for a candidate for Congress but did not vote in the U.S. Senate race.

CA45 (Irvine): Here are the changes between the September 7 voter registration report and the update posted yesterday by the Orange County Registrar of Voters. This is a weekly update posted by the county.

Voter Registration Update
Congressional District 45 (Irvine)
  Dem Rep NPP
9/7/18 125,731 151,826 118,591
10/15/18 122,108 150,873 113,285
 Change  3,623  953  5,306
  2.97% 0.63% 4.68%

CA45 (Irvine): Here are the changes between the September 7 voter registration report and the update posted yesterday by the Orange County Registrar of Voters. This is a weekly update posted by the county.

Voter Registration Update
Congressional District 45 (Irvine)
Dem Rep NPP
10/15/18 125,731 151,826 118,591
9/7/18 122,108 150,873 113,285
Change 3,623 953 5,306
2.97% 0.63% 4.68%

I'll try to get to CA48 today as that's the other congressional district entirely in Orange County. CA39 is also in Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties and CA49 is also in San Diego county.

Here is AD74, which is in both CA45 and CA48.

Voter Registration Update
Assembly District 74 (Irvine)
Dem Rep NPP
10/15/18 85,196 99,503 78,373
9/7/18 82,202 98,798 74,493
Change 2,994 705 3,880
3.64% 0.71% 5.21%

Sorry about that,
Scott

 

ADAM'S FUTURE: It's no secret that if DiFi decided not to run for re-election this year, Burbank congressman Adam Schiff would have taken her place as the mod Dem with experience running for the seat. However, Feinstein ran. For the LA Times, Sarah D. Wire looks at what the next move for Schiff will be. Like fellow former prosecutor Kamala Harris, Schiff has been selectively choosing where he helps with fundraising. Wire reports on his recent reponse to the question of whether he is running for President during a trip to New Hampshire: “I’m only running for the House, but I’m honored to be asked the question,” Schiff said. . . . For now, Schiff is crisscrossing the country, living out of a suitcase, to stump for local candidates. It’s the kind of quiet, local politicking that could make a difference if he decides to go for a bigger position." 

Schiff ended the third quarter with $4,571,419.99 on hand after raising $765,258.51 and spending $765,258.51, while at the same time raising dough for the DCCC and other candidates.

EYE SPI: Wealthy retired businessman Bill Bloomfield kicked in $300,000 to the independent expenditure campaign for Marshall Tuck for superintendent of public instruction. Bloomfield ran as NPP for CA33 in 2012, but lost to incumbent Henry Waxman in the general.

SPLIT ROLL: Well, if you're wondering what will happen after November 6 passes by, we now have a colossal battle for 2020. Yesterday, the initiative to treat commercial and industrial property separately from residential property for the purposes of assessed valuation increases ("split roll") was determined qualified for the ballot. If you thought you have seen a lot of ads on this year's Proposition 10, wait until 2020.

The Legislative Analyst's Office summary reads "Net increase in annual property tax revenues of $6.5 billion to $10.5 billion in most years, depending on the strength of real estate markets. After paying for county administrative costs and backfilling state income tax losses related to the measure, the remaining $6 billion to $10 billion would be allocated to schools (40 percent) and other local governments (60 percent)." [full LAO explainer]

  

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to former assemblymembers Warren Furutani and Sally Havice, Jorge Garrido, and Thom O'Shaughnessy!

 

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

  • Administrative Assistant for Lobby Firm
    Qualifications: Experience working in a governmental affairs office, outstanding communications skills, working knowledge of the legislative process, calendaring and arranging travel, proficient in Microsoft Outlook, Excel and Word. Salary based on experience.

    Send resume to jmccoy@aaronread.com For questions, call Joelle at (916) 448-3444.

  • Lighthouse Public Affairs, Sacramento seeks FT Legislative Assistant to provide scheduling, technical and legislative support in fast-paced, collaborative environment. Salary range $40-50k w/benefits. Open until filled. Send resume and cover letter to sosan@lh-pa.com.

  • Link to full job description: lh-pa.com/saclegasst.pdf

  • POSITION YOURSELF FOR LOBBYING SUCCESS IN JUST TWO DAYS. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, Capitol Seminars' Lobbying 101 & 201 courses offer you cost-effective, comprehensive coverage of California's Legislative, Budget and Regulatory processes, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies, along with an inside perspective on best practices for navigating these processes. You’ll refer repeatedly to our valuable curriculum materials long after the seminars are over. Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8. More info / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit scag.ca.gov/opportunities/Pages/CareerOpportunities.aspx.
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.
    Details here: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117  
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122
  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu.
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Education Reform, Teacher Tenure, Free Tuition: Where California Governor's Race Candidates Stand - The San Diego Union-tribune
Luis Gomez @
sandiegouniontribune.com


Why Proposition 8 Is One Of The Most Contentious, And Confusing, Ballot Measures In Play - Capradio.org
Sammy Caiola @
capradio.org
Capital Public Radio, Inc.7055 Folsom BoulevardSacramento, CA 95826

Judge Dismisses Stormy Daniels' Defamation Suit Against Trump, Orders Her To Pay President's Legal Fees
Michael Finnegan @
latimes.com
A federal judge in Los Angeles dismissed the defamation lawsuit that adult film actress Stormy Daniels had filed against President Trump.

The Daily 202: Kathleen Sebelius stumping with Democrats highlights the rapidly changing politics of health care

Scott Walker defends the lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of Obamacare in an interview.

Student-led Effort Advances Potential Military Affairs Minor At UC Berkeley
dailycal.org
Theocharous, who served in the military and whose platform included creating a military affairs minor, said he wants to help build stronger relations between the ASUC and the ROTC. He said he is highly confident that the minor will be implemented within this academic year and that all of the respondents to a survey sent to the ROTC community replied in support of the minor.