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REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

 

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BALANCE OF POWER: 

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 43 Democrats, 8 Republicans, 2 toss-ups
      - Dems hold 39; Reps hold 9
      - Dems pick up 4 Leaners in Denham (CA10), Knight (CA25)Rohrabacher (CA48), and Open/Issa (CA49)
      - Toss-up of Walters (CA45)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 55-57 Democrats
      - Dems hold 55, pick up AD76 with tough holds for Dems in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60), likely pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40) and possible pick-ups for Dems in toss-up Acosta (AD38) and Open/Allen (AD72) and long-shot in Baker (AD16).


For Nooner Premium subscribers, the chart of my ratings and those of five others has been updated on the subscribers page.

 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

E-42

GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 9/06-9/25/2018 has Democrats+7.7. (Change from yesterday: no change)

For comparison purposes only: In the same period in 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4. 

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:

  • US Senate control: 30.3% D, 69.7% R (Change from yesterday: R+0.7)
  • Senate seats: 49 D, 51 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • CA US Senate projected vote: Feinstein: 61.4%, de León 38.6% (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • House control: 79.9%% D, 29.1% R (Change from yesterday: D-0.5
  • House seats: 232 D, 203 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • Popular vote margin: +8.5% D (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • California delegation: 44 Democrats, 7 Republicans, 2 toss-ups (Change from yesterday: no change)

SPORTS PAGE: Giants won last night, not that it matters. Dodgers dropped a game to the D-Backs, while Colorado beat Philly 10-3, a big win that matters. Dodgers only have the NL West by 1 run today. It's not just that, but falling out of even wild card is only 1.5 games away...and there are only five games left.

Those who know me personally know that I'm really not a big sports fan. Yes, I have all the bobbleheads for the Kings from 1995, but they hadn't seen light until I opened a box on Sunday. For me, sports are background noise to turn off Washington.

STUDENTS:  1/10 Nooner Premium subscriptions paid for by another subscriber are still available. Email me a photo of your student ID and you're set through 01/01/2020. I now have a sponsor for five student subscriptions for UC Davis School of Law or Claremont McKenna students! Same deal...

NOONER CONTEST: We're now five days from the 2018 General Nooner Contest! I have added SD36 (Carlsbad) to the contest questions. That makes 30 districts and two tie-breaker questions (Newsom % and Prop. 6%). Contest opens at noon on Monday, October 1st and is free for all Nooner readers. The proposed contest and point values are here.

Top 25 will be posted (with whatever name they choose to use) and prizes will be:

  • First: $75 Amazon gift card or donation to a charity of choice
  • Second: $50 Amazon gift card or donation to a charity of choice
  • Third: $25 Amazon gift card or donation to a charity of choice 

 

Happy Humpday!  I have my hands on a new PPIC poll that covers governor, U.S. Senate, gas tax, and rent control. Embargoed until 9pm PDT tonight. I'll send it to Nooner Premium readers then, and it'll be in tomorrow's Nooner. It's the best independent poll of the cycle and the results among likely voters are about what I expected. There's a briefing at Nooner-o-clock tomorrow that I will attend to share insights with you.

I don't think I'm breaking embargo to say that President Trump is very unpopular in California. I write that not for my liberal readers who are licking their chops, but for my red-shaded readers for campaign strategy here on out.

My other suggestions in the writing in this space are also largely confirmed by the respected poll. In particular on the gas tax repeal, unlike many polls, it uses the official ballot title and reasonable LAO summary. 

It really sucks writing The Nooner under embargo, but I appreciate the great work done by PPIC made possible by its nonprofit funders. Also from today's suckage file, The Sacramento Bee staff are great, but do I need another weekly podcast on California podcast. I know, yes, I need longer walks, but the 20-or-so podcasts I already listen to each week are enough.

MENDO COUNTY CORRECTION: My response to a question from an astute reader of yesterday's Nooner regarding the funding of the good Democrats of Mendo County: "Well, crap....that was a research track that I got sidetracked on. It should have said "was made on 12/19/2017 and reported as received on 01/03/2018. That means that $36,500 counts toward the 2017 maximum, as does the second maximum amount toward 2018." That's within the ten reporting day requirement of the $5,000+ contribution, but it's clear the money the money received at the end of 2017 was for the 2018 elections. It's all in the game, yo'.

#WESAIDENOUGH: Well, the investigation into the conduct of State Senator Joel Anderson (R-Alpine) has come to a conclusion with a reprimand letter and conclusion that, more likely than not, he acted inappropriately with a lobbyist for the California Nurses Association at The Diplomat Steakhouse across the street from the Capitol on August 13. Capitol Public Radio's Ben Adler reports "An investigation found Anderson inappropriately rubbed the lobbyist's shoulders, became “increasingly agitated,” and told her at least twice “I oughta bitch slap you,” or words very close to that." Adler's article includes the reprimand letter.

Taking a step back, it's important to recognize how different 2018 is, and that's a good thing. The Diplomat sits where I learned the lobbyist trade under the tutelage of a group of legendary education lobbyists in the late 1990s. The restaurant at the time was Brannan's, and the insiders knew which lobbying interests had open tabs on which you could essentially bill anything to. 

In those days, the phrase "I will end you" could frequently be heard--at the "gate" where lobbyists assembly outside floor sessions--and in places like Brannan's. The later in the day and into the evening, the participants were further inebriated and the rhetoric got stronger. I'm probably the only one on The Nooner list who has an autographed photo of Willie L. Brown, Jr. on his bookshelf* (no wonder I don't date), but let's be honest that the politics of that era were not the best, particularly for women. 

I would even cite the use of Assemblymember Doris Allen to serve as a Democratic speaker clothed in GOP garb before she was recalled as the low point in the treatment of women by the male-dominated Democratic caucus. She was a pawn and was speaker for only three months. So was Brian Setencich, a former pro basketball player in Europe who had the most marvelous way of saying "All those voting who desire to voting having voted" and other twists on the customary call of the presiding officer. We all knew that.

Allen was recalled and Setencich lost re-election and got a job in San Francisco under Mayor Brown. Allen died of colon cancer in Colorado Springs in 1999.  

Setencich later was convicted in 2000 for cheating on his taxes by understating his 1996 income by $19,600 as part of a sweeping investigation of Fresno politicians. His Democrat "friends" who used him for four months were nowhere to be found. He was sentenced to seven months in a "halfway house." If I've never heard a more apt political metaphor, this is it. Uh, you screwed up on your taxes, go live in a Big Brother-style house.

Both Allen and Setencich disappeared largely unrecognized by Democrats, who, through their cooperation, held on to power in the Assembly for fourteen months after losing the majority (vis à vis recalled Paul Horcher--who's Assembly seat was the same swing area of the latest recall--SD29). Some of us built our thighs by walking up Diamond Bar driveways--just sayin'.

There is a lot of much deserved anger on the left about sexual harassment. That said, there should also be anger about the plays Democrats have used to hold on to power over the years. Of course, it brought a smile to my face, but my job for you is to call it as I look back on it. A non-partisan independent redistricticting was what Democats needed, not playing games, and they got it in 2011--ironically at the hands of moderate Republican interests.

In summary, many of you wonder why I have all those Sofa Degree books on my shelf. Actually, history is relevant to the newest of newbies. And, newbies, that is no slander, as we would all rather be in your shoes.

SPEAKING OF THE DIPLOMAT SPACE: I haven't been there yet (because I'm no longer an expense account kiddo), but this SacBee review doesn't make me want to spend anybody's money there.

* a former legislative assistant wrote to Da Mayor and asked him for a signed photo to give me for my birthday. I later bought the autographed tie he wore in that picture at a charity auction in a very odd coincidence of running across it

GOV: Republican candidate for governor John Cox launched a statewide bus campaign a the headquarters of Huy Fong Foods--maker of Sriracha Chili Sauce--this morning, cause many liberal foodies to curl into unbelievable yoga positions.

CA45 (Irvine): In the NYT/Siena College pollwe have interviews from 43.4% (467) of the expected 500 likely voters. IMPORTANT: With only that portion of the sample, the MOE would be +/- 4.7%. Thus far:

  • Katie Porter (D): 49%
  • Mimi Walters (R-inc.): 43%
  • Undecided: 8%

President Trump job approval:

  • Approve: 40%
  • Disapprove: 55%
  • Don't know: 5%

Prefer GOP keeps control of House or Dems take control?

  • GOP keeps control: 43%
  • Dems take control: 51%
  • Don't know: 6%

Do you support or oppose Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the United States Supreme Court?

  • Support: 40%
  • Oppose: 48%
  • Don't know: 12%

Interviews continue in CA45 and should be completed tonight.

[NYT/Siena polls, WHEN COMPLETE: n= ~500 self-identified likely voters; live calls, random digit dialing; MOE +/-3.5%; numbers may not add up due to rounding; full methodology discussion]

There is some big money moving in SD12 and AD15, but my clock has run out. Tomorrow! Don't forget to help the #CAKEDAYs below blow out their candles!

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

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The Political Centrist in the Time of Trump Trailer

THE POLITICAL CENTRIST IN THE TIME OF TRUMP documentary asks, why are our politics so angry, polarized, partisan, biased, petty, perturbed, sexist, uncompromising and fraught with financial paybacks?
View for free on Amazon Prime.

 

  

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Kathy Dressler, Sean Wallentine, and Jordan Wright!

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

 

  • POSITION YOURSELF FOR LOBBYING SUCCESS IN JUST TWO DAYS. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, Capitol Seminars' Lobbying 101 & 201 courses offer you cost-effective, comprehensive coverage of California's Legislative, Budget and Regulatory processes, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies, along with an inside perspective on best practices for navigating these processes. You’ll refer repeatedly to our valuable curriculum materials long after the seminars are over. Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8. More info / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit scag.ca.gov/opportunities/Pages/CareerOpportunities.aspx.
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.
    Details here: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=151143621  
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122

  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6

 

 

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Black Female Lawmaker in Vermont Resigns After Racial Harassment

Kiah Morris, a Democrat, resigned from her seat in the State House of Representatives one month after she ended her re-election campaign over harassment and threats.