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THE NOONER for June 9, 2015

 

 

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DISTRICT CHANGES:

  • CD10 (Stanislaus): added beekeeper/farmer Michael Eggman (D)
  • SD29 (Fullerton): added nonprofit executive director Josh Newman (D)
  • AD27 (San Jose): added East Side Union High School District trustee Van Le (R)
  • AD33 (SB High Desert): added Rim of the World school trustee Scott Markovich (D)
  • AD60 (Corona): added legislative district director Sabrina Cervantes (D)
  • AD60 (Corona): changed from Likely Republican to Leans Republican

 

Good morning. It's another vaxxer/anti-vaxxer day in the State Capitol, with SB 277 being heard in the Assembly Health Committtee at 1:30pm. Unlike the Senate, where it was referred to three committees, Health is the only referral in the Assembly and the bill is keyed non-fiscal. Anyway, given the craziness of previous hearings, sounds like today is a great one for a late, long lunch.

Thanks for the feedback yesterday. With 154 state and federal races on the ballot next year, getting a summary perfect for The Nooner isn't a simple process, but rather a work in progress. And, of course, lots of things are in flux.

Here are yesterday's lists, with changes italicized.

Senate vacancies 6 Safe Democratic, 1 Likely Republican:

I have made two changes to State Senate race outlooks:

  • SD25 (Pasadena): Changed from Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic with the likely entrance of longtime LA County Supervisor Mike Antonovich (R).
  • SD29 (Diamond Bar): Changed from Safe Republican to Likely Republican with the Ling-Ling Chang (R) vs. Sukhee Kang (D) race.

In the Assembly, we have 17 open seats, with 9 Safe Democratic, 7 Safe Republican, and 1 Likely Republican:

  • Safe Democratic: AD14 (Bonilla), AD24 (Gordon), AD27 (Campos), AD30 (Alejo), AD31 (Perea), AD37 (Williams), AD43 (Gatto), AD48 (Hernandez), and AD78 (Atkins)
  • Safe Republican: AD06 (B. Gaines), AD12 (Olsen), AD34 (Grove), AD55 (Chang), AD68 (Wagner), AD71 (Jones), and AD76 (Chavez)
  • Likely Republican: AD35 (Achadjian)

One that I'm watching as a possible open seat is AD04, and whether first-term Assemblymember Bill Dodd decides to jump in the race for Wolk's SD03.

In the Assembly, I have made the following change:

  • AD36 (Palmdale): Changed from Leans Republican to Likely Republican.

As of now, there are one spouse running to succeed there husbands--Watsonville councilmember--wife of Louis Alejo--Karina Cervantez Alejo in AD30. In AD48, Baldwin Park school trustee--sister-in-law of Roger Hernandez--Blanca Rubio is running.

There are three rematches from 2012: AD36 (Assemblymember Tom Lackey-R v. Steve Fox-D), AD65 (Assemblymember Young Kim-R v. Sharon Quirk-Silva-D), and AD66 (Assemblymember David Hadley-R v. Al Muratsuchi-D). Of these, I have AD36 as Leans Republican and the other two as Toss-ups. However, there are rumors that Democrats are looking for a different candidate in AD36 and that Fox may not run.

In the House of Representatives, we have three open seats, that is, if Loretta Sanchez stays in the U.S Senate race (I have my doubts)--CD24 (Capps)CD44 (Janice Hahn-D), CD46 (Loretta Sanchez-D). Both are safe Democratic seats. The odds-on favorite for CD44 is Isadore Hall III, and if CD46 is open, look for Lou Correa to make a bid. And of course we have the rematch of Congressman Mike Honda (D) and attorney Ro Khanna (D). 

CD10 (Stanislaus), Michael Eggman (D), brother of Asm Susan Talamanetes Eggman, is seeking a rematch of his 2014 bid against Congressman Jeff Denham (R). He lost that race by 12.2%.

CD24 (Santa Barbara): Retiring Congresswoman Lois Capps endorsed Santa Barbara supervisor Salud Carbajal (D) as her successor.

AD60 (Corona): With the entrance of Sabrina Cervantes (D), district director for Asm Jose Medina, I have shifted this seat from Likely Republican to Leans Republican. The seat, won by Barack Obama by 5 points in 2012, is currently held by Eric Linder (R).

BLURRED LINES: State lawmakers ask AG Kamala Harris to weigh in on redistricting case [Melanie Mason @ LAT] - "Thirty-nine members of the Legislature, all Democrats, sent a letter last week to Atty. Gen. Kamala Harris requesting that she file an amicus brief in support of basing political districts on total population, as is currently done."

SUCCESSION: Rep. Van Hollen backs Hoyer to succeed Pelosi [Lauren French @ Politico] - "Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi has given no indication she’s ready to step down from her post running the House Democratic Caucus, but that didn’t stop Rep. Chris Van Hollen from offering an early endorsement for a successor."

GOOD RIDDANCE: 'Night Stalker' Richard Ramirez Dies - The reign of terror of Richard Ramirez through Southern California was the most terrifying part of my childhood.

FOOTBALL: Great job by the USA women against Australia in a 3-1 win in the first round of the Women's World Cup yesterday. I still believe in a place called Hope (Solo, that is).

DEPT OF CORRECTIONS: It's Luis Alejo, not Louis, and his wife (a candidate to succeed him) is Karina Cervantez-Alejo, not Cervantes. Damn fingers.

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Dan Wolk. Yesterday's #CAKEDAY greeting should have been to Jess Durfee, not Jeff. Sorry about that; the cake is free. 

FAREWELL: Pollster Mervin Field (1921-2015).

 

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TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Plan to allow 16-year-olds to vote wonâ
sfgate.com
San Francisco Supervisor John Avalos tabled a proposal Monday to allow 16-and 17-year-olds the right to vote in local elections, but vowed to try again next year. Avalos said the proposal — which must go before voters as a ballot initiative — will have a better chance at succeeding in 2016 when there is a presidential election and higher voter turnout. Legal experts said the U.S. Constitution doesn’t prohibit lowering the voting age to 16, but state Elections Code Section 2000 delineates the voting age as any person at least 18 years old. “A California charter city lowering the voting age for its residents is not so clearly legal that no one would challenge it,” said David A. Carrillo, director of the California Constitution Center at UC Berkeley School of Law. Roughly two dozen teenagers showed up to the hearing Monday to express their support for lowering the voting age. Members of the San Francisco Youth Commission gave a presentation outlining reasons for doing so, including research showing that it would increase civic engagement and voter participation. San Francisco Youth Commissioner Joshua Cardenas, an 18-year-old who graduated this year from Archbishop Riordan High School and has spearheaded the effort to lower the voting age, said he supported Avalos’ move to delay the legislation.

California Budget Talks Enter Key Stretch - Capradio.org
capradio.org
California lawmakers and Governor Jerry Brown are heading into crunch time for state budget talks. The sides have just days to reach a deal if there’s to be a vote by next Monday’s constitutional budget deadline.

State Lawmakers Ask Ag Kamala Harris To Weigh In On Redistricting Case
latimes.com
Dozens of state lawmakers have joined Senate leader Kevin de León in backing the "one-person, one-vote" doctrine to determine voting districts, in anticipation of a pending U.S. Supreme Court case that could overturn that principle.

Trailblazing California pollster Mervin Field dead at 94
sfgate.com
Mervin Field, the dean of California pollsters and founder of the Field Poll — one of the nation’s pre-eminent public opinion research surveys — died Monday in Marin County of natural causes at age 94, his family said. “He was certainly a trailblazer here in California — a public opinion research pioneer,” said Mark DiCamillo, who joined Field’s staff in 1978 and directs the Field Poll and Field Research, “He was the first really to come to California and practice the trade — and he built a well-earned reputation for impartiality and objectivity,” DiCamillo said. Mr. Field founded Field Research in 1946 and the Field Poll a year later. [...] it has published more than 2,350 reports and polls on state and national elections, the organization a national reputation as nonpartisan public opinion news service that marshaled the latest in survey methodology to predict California political trends. “While his candidate polls in key contests attracted the heaviest media attention, more than half of his polling reports dealt with public policy issues that affected the lives of Californians and shaped the actions of their legislature,” wrote Lubenow in a tribute to Mr. Field. Veteran California politics watchers say Mr. Field’s lifelong success was rooted not only in savvy business skills, technical knowledge and the latest methodoligcal practices, but in his hallmark dedication to the highest of ethical standards and transparency. Political observers christened the miscue the Bradley Effect,’’ in which nonwhite candidates tend to do better in polling than in reality — a discrepancy they suggested could be caused by voters’ reluctance to admit to racism. At UC Berkeley, he was named him a Regents Professor and served on the Advisory Council of Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies, where he received its Distinguished Service Award for “advancing the spirit of good government and improving the quality of public affairs of California and the nation.”

State Lawmakers Approve $968,700 In Claims For Wrongful Convictions
latimes.com
State lawmakers on Monday approved legislation that would pay $968,700 to settle claims by three wrongly convicted Californians, including Brian Banks, a former star football player who served five years in prison before a young girl recanted her accusation that he had raped her.

Three Sacramento Water Agencies Get Breather On Drought Cutbacks
Dale Kasler @
sacbee.com
Lincoln, Sacramento Suburban, Georgetown bumped to easier category

First Draft: Today in Politics: Jeb Bush Heads to Europe to the Sound of Musical Chairs
rss.nytimes.com
A day after returning from Group of 7 meetings in Germany, President Obama will move his attention to defending his health care law, and where a senator clears time for blueberry muffins. And Jeb Bush begins his own Europe trip as he switches some job titles on his team.

Obama makes moral case for preserving his healthcare law
JR ROSS @
politico.com
Four words in the law could unravel Obamacare in the Supreme Court. So President Barack Obama is marshaling his own numbers – and an unusual moral weight — to stress the achievements of his health overhaul law on Tuesday.

Gop's Same-sex Marriage Trap: Conservatives Oppose It Intensely
latimes.com
The Supreme Court may be just weeks away from declaring a nationwide right to same-sex marriage with a ruling likely to trigger public opposition -- and private sighs of relief -- from most Republican presidential hopefuls.

CalSTRS Cashes Out Of Firearms Investment | The Sacramento Bee
Dale Kasler @
sacbee.com
Gun maker Remington tied to Sandy Hook massacre

Education Inquality And 'black Lives Matter'
latimes.com
As I continued to read, however, this quote by the Smithsonian's Deborah Tulani Salahu-Din struck me: "[The work] focuses also on the social, political and economic injustices that have been with us for quite some time." She did not mention educational injustices.

Democrats Push Spending Plan That Relies On Higher Revenues
JUDY LIN @
sacbee.com
With California's budget deadline a week away, Democratic state lawmakers are using higher revenue estimates to bolster their argument for spending more on social programs for the poor despite Gov. Jerry Brown's cost concerns.

CalPERS To Halve Its Wall Street Investment Managers
latimes.com
The California Public Employees' Retirement System plans to cut in half the number of Wall Street firms it pays to manage its $303 billion fund, an effort to cut down on high fees that drag down returns.

Dublin Defends Construction Of Massive Water Park During Drought
insidebayarea.com
Residents are being asked to cut back water use by 20 percent -- letting lawns go brown and taking shorter showers -- yet the Dublin City Council gave the go-ahead for the 31,000-square-foot water park in February. The city recently has been flooded with requests to downsize the project or scrap it completely given the emphasis on water conservation.

Cell phone industry sues Berkeley over warning-labels law
sfgate.com
The cell-phone industry, leery of any attempt to link its products to radiation, sued Berkeley on Monday over a new ordinance requiring consumers to be warned that carrying a switched-on phone in their pockets or bra might exceed federal safety standards. The ordinance violates free speech by compelling sellers to convey a message they disagree with, and one that is “inaccurate, misleading, and controversial,” said the suit, filed in federal court by CTIA - The Wireless Association. The trade group successfully used a similar argument against a San Francisco ordinance that would have required cell-phone retailers to tell customers the phones could expose them to dangerous levels of radiation, classified as possibly cancer-causing by the World Health Organization. The Federal Communications Commission has stated, based on “overwhelming” scientific authority, that exceeding its radiation-exposure guidelines “does not pose a safety concern,” because the standards are set 50 times lower than the danger levels, CTIA’s lawyers said. Councilman Max Anderson, the measure’s lead sponsor, said the warning language was taken directly from manufacturers’ statements in product manuals.

Supreme Court Gets It Right On Jerusalem Passport Case
Editorial @
latimes.com
The Supreme Court on Monday handed President Obama — and his successors — a significant and deserved victory when it ruled that recognizing a foreign government is the "exclusive" province of the executive branch. By a 6-3 vote, the justices struck down a provision in a law passed by Congress in 2002 that requires the State Department, if requested, to issue a passport designating "Israel" as the birthplace of a U.S. citizen born in Jerusalem. Both the George W. Bush and Obama administrations had declined to enforce the law.

Lawyers Apologize To Hollywood Execs Wrongly Accused Of Sexual Abuse
latimes.com
The allegations unsettled Hollywood: teenage boys invited to pool parties at an Encino mansion where they were offered drugs and drink, with the tacit understanding that they would be expected to have sex with older men in attendance, most working in the entertainment industry.