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THE NOONER for June 6, 2013

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DC READERS:
Join me for Politics and Pints - Monday, June 17 at 6:30pm (or whenever House session ends) at the community table on the first floor of Hawk n Dove, 329 Penn Ave SE.

 

DISTRICT CHANGES:

  • CD01 (Northeast): Added real estate broker Gregory Cheadle (R)
  • CD01 (Northeast): Added Shasta Lake councilmember Dolores Lucero (R)
  • AD52 (Chino/Ontario/Pomona): Added official ballot titles, FPPC numbers
  • AD52 (Chino/Ontario/Pomona): Removed Kenny Coble (R)
  • AD52 (Chino/Ontario/Pomona): Removed Rodolfo Favila (D)
  • AD52 (Chino/Ontario/Pomona): Changed registration of Paul Leon from (R) to (NPP) 

SUBSCRIBERS: downloadable spreadsheet of all candidates 

 

OBSCENE: Obama Defends Phone-Record Tracking as 'Critical Tool' - "Former officials described the practice after a published account on the gathering of complete phone records from all U.S. customers, including landline and wireless accounts, was published Wednesday." DiFi plays her role and defends the collection of your conversations.

Fortunately, I have AT&T, so none of my calls go through anyway. 

AD52:

The field has been certified for the July 23 runoff: 

  • Paul Vincent Avila (Party Preference: Democratic) - Ontario Council Member
  • Tom Haughey (Party Preference: Democratic) - Councilmember/Family Businessman
  • Freddie Rodriguez (Party Preference: Democratic) - Councilmember/Emergency Responder
  • Jason A. Rothman (Party Preference: Democratic) - School Boardmember/Educator
  • Manuel Saucedo (Party Preference: Democratic) - Consultant
  • Danielle L. Soto (Party Preference: Democratic) - Public Information Specialist
  • Doris Louise Wallace (Party Preference: Democratic) - Union Member Organizer
  • Dorothy F. Pineda (Party Preference: Republican) - Business Owner
  • Paul S. Leon (No Party Preference) - Ontario Mayor/Pastor

Which requires me to revise my premature thoughts on the race yesterday. Paul Leon has dropped his no party preference registration, which I believe will actually hurt his chances of making it to the runoff against 7 Democrats and 1 Republican. While I don't think we know the long term fate of "no party preference" candidates, an off-year special election is a tough time to rise above the pack. 

Manuel Saucedo is up with signs already around the district, and has picked up the endorsement of former Congressman Joe Baca. From what I can recall, this is the first "three-way" split of the Democratic politics in the region, with Gloria Negrete McLeod supporting Dani Soto and Norma Torres endorsing Freddie Rodriguez. A fourth Democrat, Jason Rothman, has important family ties (dad is mayor of Pomona) and has the only education ballot label.

This will be a brutal primary and the turnout is probably about as brutully low as 10%, which was the turnout in the special in the overlapping SD32 on May 14 (10.42% in run-off; 9.15% in primary). If we project similar turnout in AD52, that's only 17,707 votes! On average, the 9 candidates will average 1,967 votes each. In fact, the five "higher tier" candidates--including Leon, Rodriguez, Rothman, Saucedo, and Soto--will probably split a combined 80% of the vote, meaning that the top two will be in the 3,000 vote range. If anyone tries to spin you that their candidate is in the clear lead, don't believe them. This will very likely be a nail biter.

ALL ABOUT THE G-MEN THING: Actually, we have little additional information on the FBI's interest in the State Capitol. The search warrant is sealed and all we know is that it's part of a broader Los Angeles-centered corruption investigation. Yes, there were rumors abound yesterday that the FBI wanted to talk to between four and twelve other people (possibly legislators), but that is unconfirmed. It's also possible that some of those were simply names included in the warrant, given that staff members belongings were likely searched when the warrant was executed.

From the Latino Legislative Caucus:

"Yesterday, the Sergeant at Arms informed us that the FBI had served warrants in the Capitol. However, despite media reports to the contrary, those warrants DID NOT include searches of the offices of the Latino Legislative Caucus (Room 511) . . . The nature of the warrants is under seal, and thus far no information on the affidavit in support of the warrants has been disclosed . . . In any event, the Latino Legislative Caucus stands ready to assist the Justice Department in whatever way it can to bring this matter to a speedy resolution."

Senate Sergeant At Arms Tony Beard had originally said the caucus office was searched, but confirmed yesterday that it was instead a Calderon satellite office.

Lots of people are speculating on what and who are the subjects. One thing is pretty clear at this point--this is no Shrimpscam, and is likely contained to Los Angeles. If it turns out to be the ongoing water district fights in Los Angeles, Anthony York gives us this link to a 2012 story that's a good explainer.

Meanwhile, the topic has distracted everyone from the fact that we're now 9 days from the "no budget-no pay" deadline. We're still hearing that it will be wrapped by next Thursday or Friday, although lots of work (at least in public) remains to be done. Conference committee is taking today off, and then will be meeting tomorrow and Saturday.

 

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