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THE NOONER for May 24, 2013

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DISTRICT CHANGES [all candidates in spreadsheet (paid subscribers only)]

  • CD41 (Riverside): Added Steve Adams - Councilmember, Riverside

 

I'm off to Redding to give a commencement speech tonight, so we'll have a quickie Nooner today. The suspense is ending today in Assembly Appropriations, meaning it is a per diem Friday with real work happening. Hear that Citizens Compensation Commission?

On the Twitter list from yesterday, the realm of those accounts surveyed were those on the politics list maintained by @CapitolAlert and @JohnMyers. I'm aware folks were left off and I'm guessing will be added by the time we do a top twits list again.

PICK A DISTRICT

On Wednesday, following the win of Andy Vidak (R) over Leticia Perez (D), I implied that the seat would be the number one target for Democrats next year. On further reflection and after lots of discussion with folks, I'd like to hedge that comment. It's too early to make that prediction.

In fact, Perez might not even run for the new SD14, as the DCCC wooes her to run against David Valadao in CD21. And, while the electorate in SD14 will be better for Dems in 2014 than in this year's SD16 special, the new district also swings about five points toward Republicans. Thus, unless there is a large Democratic tide that would be very surprising, it will be a hard year to knock off Vidak.

Again, we're talking about the need the Democrats have to win at least one of three Senate seats next year--one currently held by Democrats, and two that will now be Republican defense plays.

The other two are the new SD12, which stretches from Salinas to Modesto, and down the 5 and 99 to Coalinga and Selma. The seat is currently held by Anthony Cannella (R), who won the seat previously held by Jeff Denham as a far more Republican district. Jerry Brown beat Meg Whitman in the seat in 2010, although fell under 50% at 49.3%. Brown had a 10-point margin at 50.8% in SD14. Running against Cannella is Tom Hallinan, a trustee of the Yosemite Community College District.

However, the Republicans will be unified behind their candidates in these two seats, and down-ballot Republicans frequently perform better in the Central Valley than those leading the ticket.

Then we have Orange County, which is not a place known for GOP unity. Lou Correa's SD34 on its face is a lost cause for Democrats. Brown polled only 43% in the district to Whitman's 48%. However, the district that stretches from Santa Ana to Seal Beach has deep divides within the Republican Party and pockets of low-participation Democratic (registered or potential) voters, particularly in off years.

It is that reason former Assemblymember Jose Solorio will make to get the top investment from the Democratic caucus, despite the district's sketchy numbers. The other reason is that he has $302,500 on hand, or at least did as of December 31. Meanwhile, there are four potentially strong GOP candidates--Janet Nguyen, Long Pham, Jim Silva, Van Tran--who may or not make the run. Nguyen is the best fundraiser in the mix, although that has attracted FBI attention for possible connections to county contracts.

At the end of the day, Democrats and their allies will have enough money to play in all three districts and, like we saw last year, shift money at the end for what looks to be the best play(s). Whether that is SD12, SD 14, or SD34, we won't know until next fall.

 

**CLASSIFIEDS**

  • Sublease or small office sought. The Community College League of California, which recently consolidated to its midtown headquarters, is seeking a small shared or solo office space near the Capitol. Contact Scott Lay at scott@scottlay.com or, well, reply to this message!

  • Deering's California Codes, with 2012 supplements, for sale. 21 of 29 sections available. Excludes Corporations, Family, Public Contract, Public Utilities, Streets & Highways, Evidence, Harbors & Navigation, and Military & Veterans Code. Asking $400 OBO for the set (Lexis sells them for $4300). Contact Len with the Friends of the Sacramento Public Library at FSPL@att.net or 916-731-8493.
  • Learn to lobby more effectively. Veteran lobbyist Ray LeBov offers his introductory "Legislative Process / Lobbying 101" and advanced "Lobbying 201" seminars June 6-7. $250 each. Valuable for principals and support staff at lobbying firms, organizations that employ lobbyists, public agencies, membership associations. Info / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • Civil Litigation Manuals and Civil Procedure Classes for San Diego, Orange, and Los Angeles counties. For more information, visit www.alexanderslegal.com.

 

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