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THE NOONER for May 22, 2013

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DISTRICT CHANGES [all candidates in spreadsheet (paid subscribers only)]

  • SD12 (Merced): Changed to Toss-Up (from Leans Democrat) 
  • SD14 (Fresno/Bakersfield): Changed to Leans Democrat (From Safe Democrat)

The shock of last night wasn't Panda's 10th inning home run to lift the Giants over the Nats, but rather Andy Vidak's apparent win in SD16. Democratic star Leticia Perez was considered the strong favorite to succeed Michael Rubio, although many thought it would require a runoff. If the win holds, expect Perez to look for a rematch next year with a more favorite electorate in the new SD14.

With Curren Price moving to the Los Angeles City Council and the loss, Dems drop to 27 votes, keeping the supermajority. This seriously complicates things for 2014 campaign strategy. Dems were expecting to hold old Rubio's SD16/new SD14, fight to hold Lou Correa's SD34, and make a run on Anthony Canella's SD12

After Price's seat is filled (most likely by Assemblymember Holly Mitchell), Democrats will have 28 votes. Next year, Fiona Ma's SD08 is a Republican seat in the foothills. To keep the 27-vote supermajority, they must win one of the three on the playing field--SD12, SD14, or SD34. 

Of these three, SD14 is the most favorable for Democrats, and if Perez runs and can make it in the top two with Vidak, she'll be the favorite in November.

Because of this, Democrats and their allies are likely to pour most resources into this seat and less into defense of SD34 and offense of SD12. SD12 is a far more Democratic seat than SD34, although former Assemblymember Jose Solorio's name ID and the fact that it's an open seat have most people believing it would be a higher priority than SD12 (where Tom Hallinan is running). Anyway you cut it, though, last night's Central Valley ramifications were not good news for Solorio and Hallinan, or other possible SD12 Democratic candidates.

Hat tip to Paul Mitchell for morning texts thinking this all through...

Meanwhile, Lorena Gonzalez easily won AD80, with 72.3% of the vote. The Assembly is now back to 54 Democrats, the bare supermajority, when Gonzalez is sworn in next week. After the vacancy election for Norma Torres's AD52, the green carpet will have 55 Dems--until Holly Mitchell moves to the red carpet!

In Los Angeles, there were few surprises. Of my predictions, two were wrong, and they were the two that Nooner readers provided me the most feedback that my gut might be wrong. City controller Ron Galperin won another term, defeating councilmember Dennis Zine, and Garcetti deputy Mitch O'Farrell defeated John Choi in district 13.

It is possible that races could still change with late absentees and provisional ballots, and expect to wait awhile. I'm told the city elections office won't provide another update until the full canvass is done in 21 days. The closest elections have Gil Cedillo over Jose Gardea by 796 votes and Curren Price over Ana Cubas by 541 votes.

GENTLEMENS CLUB: If the results hold, Los Angeles city government will have one woman--either Cindy Montanez or Nury Martinez--in the 16 elected city offices. 

LOS ANGELES: [results link]

  • Mayor: Eric Garcetti (53.9%)
  • City Attorney: Mike Feuer (62.1%)
  • Controller: Ron Galperin (56.2%)
  • Council 1: Gil Cedillo (52.4%)
  • Council 6 (special election): Runoff between Cindy Montanez (43.5%) and Nury Martinez (23.9%)
  • Council 9: Curren Price (52.7%)
  • Council 13: Mitch O'Farrell (53.1%)

THE BIG MO: Pete Aguilar's campaign for CD31 is out with a list of congressional endorsements today, including Karen Bass, Julia Brownley, Judy Chu, Janice Hahn, Alan Lowenthal, Gloria Negrete McLeod, Scott Peters, Loretta Sanchez, Adam Schiff, Eric Swalwell, Mark Takano, and Henry Waxman.

  

**CLASSIFIEDS**

  • Deering's California Codes, with 2012 supplements, for sale. 21 of 29 sections available. Excludes Corporations, Family, Public Contract, Public Utilities, Streets & Highways, Evidence, Harbors & Navigation, and Military & Veterans Code. Asking $400 OBO for the set (Lexis sells them for $4300). Contact Len with the Friends of the Sacramento Public Library at FSPL@att.net or 916-731-8493.
  • Learn to lobby more effectively. Veteran lobbyist Ray LeBov offers his introductory "Legislative Process / Lobbying 101" and advanced "Lobbying 201" seminars June 6-7. $250 each. Valuable for principals and support staff at lobbying firms, organizations that employ lobbyists, public agencies, membership associations. Info / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • Civil Litigation Manuals and Civil Procedure Classes for San Diego, Orange, and Los Angeles counties. For more information, visit www.alexanderslegal.com.

 

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