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THE NOONER for May 2, 2013

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CD52: GOP Tests Gay Candidate as 'New Generation Republican' in Poll #CA52 [Kyle Trygstad @ Roll Call] - "In a matchup with Peters, DeMaio led 49 percent to 39 percent. The poll was taken April 22-24 and had a 4.9-point margin of error."

POWER PLAY: Savvy politicos block the shot [George Skelton @ LAT] - "[Rob Stutzman] collected signatures of Anaheim voters for a referendum to block their City Council's appropriation of public money to facilitate the move. The consultant never turned in the signatures because the Maloofs, under NBA pressure, ultimately backed down. 'We could have gummed it up for a long time," Stutzman says. 'If you are going to screw with a political town, we'll use every political trick to screw with you.'"

DIGITS: Where you lived in 2005 [Paul Mitchell @ PDI Blog] - "Using the PDI database, and more than 3 million cellphone numbers on the voter file, we can see where these area codes have gone. We can see that there are a number of 415 area code voters in LA, for example, but most are on the westside. In fact, a place like West Hollywood, in the 323 officially, 48% of its cell phones have other area codes."

RNC: If you can't win an election, start a petition!

DENIED: Sec State Bowen tweets why she failed to disclose campaign data online [John Hrabe @ CalWatchdog]

Meanwhile, $1.6 million is heading to Bowen to tackle the backlog of business filings.

MEDIA MATTERS: Be very afraid if Kochs buy L.A. Times? [Andrew S. Ross @ SFChron]

WHOOPS!: The report that Arrowgrass Capital Partners, a NYC hedge fund, spent $2.2 million on in-house lobbyists was a filing error and is expected to be corrected.

TWEET: 27 Middle-Class Problems [BuzzFeed]

BZZZZZ: THE CICADAS ARE COMING! [Radiolab] 

 

 

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Geek time. I'm starting to dive into congressional races and will release rankings of the most competitive races next year. One of the metrics I use is to look at the Obama's performance in the district last year compared to 2008, and also the district's performance in both 2008 and 2012, compared to the mid-term election in 2010. Paid Nooner subscribers can download a spreadsheet of the data here.

So, for what it's worth, these are the data I'm looking at, ranked by Obama's performance in 2012 versus 2008.

A couple of interesting points:

  • John McCain performed well in Long Beach in 2008, likely driven by military and defense voters. That didn't hold true for Mitt Romney.
  • Obama in 2012 outperformed Jerry Brown's 2010 election. Brown actually outpaced Obama's 2008 performance in 7 districts, all safe Democratic seats.
  • CD25 was the Republican district in which Obama performed the best, at 47.8%, an improvement of +4.4% from 2008. This is also where Steve Fox (D) picked up a safe Democratic seat. While CD25 won't be competitive for Dems in 2014, it likely will be in an upcoming presidential. The NRCC has got to be thinking that Buck McKeon needs to retire during a mid-term election (rumored to be 2014) to ensure an open seat doesn't coincide with a presidential.

 

DistrictGeographyObama 2008Obama 2012Obama 2012 vs. 2008Brown 2010Obama 2012 vs. Brown 2008
CD29 E. San Fernando V 62.70% 77.00% 14.30% 66.90% 10.10%
CD34 Downtown LA 69.30% 83.00% 13.70% 74.90% 8.10%
CD47 Long Beach 46.50% 60.00% 13.50% 50.00% 10.00%
CD38 Whittier 53.20% 64.90% 11.70% 56.60% 8.30%
CD27 Pasadena 51.90% 62.60% 10.70% 54.60% 8.00%
CD43 Inglewood 67.40% 78.00% 10.60% 68.70% 9.30%
CD37 Culver City 78.20% 84.90% 6.70% 78.70% 6.20%
CD28 Hollywood 64.90% 70.30% 5.40% 62.90% 7.40%
CD35 Ontario 62.30% 67.40% 5.10% 57.50% 9.90%
CD25 S. Clarita/Palmdale 43.40% 47.80% 4.40% 39.00% 8.80%
CD32 W. Covina 61.20% 65.20% 4.00% 56.70% 8.50%
CD30 W. San Fernando Vly 61.30% 65.30% 4.00% 56.90% 8.40%
CD51 S. SD - Imperial 65.40% 69.40% 4.00% 58.50% 10.90%
CD19 San Jose 67.50% 71.20% 3.70% 60.30% 10.90%
CD46 Santa Ana 57.80% 61.40% 3.60% 49.80% 11.60%
CD17 Milpitas 68.50% 71.90% 3.40% 60.60% 11.30%
CD44 Carson 81.50% 84.70% 3.20% 76.50% 8.20%
CD21 Kings 51.40% 54.60% 3.20% 47.70% 6.90%
CD41 Riverside 58.40% 61.50% 3.10% 51.50% 10.00%
CD33 LA Coast 58.00% 60.60% 2.60% 54.30% 6.30%
CD39 Fullerton 44.70% 47.10% 2.40% 38.20% 8.90%
CD31 San Bernardino 55.70% 57.20% 1.50% 48.80% 8.40%
CD06 Sacramento 67.60% 69.00% 1.40% 66.00% 3.00%
CD09 San Joaquin 56.50% 57.80% 1.30% 51.00% 6.80%
CD40 Downey 80.30% 81.50% 1.20% 72.80% 8.70%
CD15 Hawyard-Pleas-Liv 66.90% 68.00% 1.10% 59.30% 8.70%
CD23 Kern 35.10% 36.10% 1.00% 33.00% 3.10%
CD14 San Mateo 73.30% 74.20% 0.90% 66.40% 7.80%
CD53 La Mesa 60.70% 61.40% 0.70% 51.90% 9.50%
CD10 Stanislaus 49.80% 50.50% 0.70% 43.60% 6.90%
CD36 Coachella V 50.10% 50.70% 0.60% 43.30% 7.40%
CD16 Merced 58.00% 58.60% 0.60% 50.00% 8.60%
CD13 Oakland 87.10% 87.50% 0.40% 84.00% 3.50%
CD08 SB High Desert 41.50% 41.70% 0.20% 36.00% 5.70%
CD12 San Francisco 83.80% 84.00% 0.20% 77.80% 6.20%
CD20 Monterey 71.40% 70.90% -0.50% 63.10% 7.80%
CD07 E. Sac Co 51.30% 50.70% -0.60% 49.60% 1.10%
CD22 Fresno 42.30% 41.60% -0.70% 35.30% 6.30%
CD03 Yolano-Yuba-Lake 55.00% 54.30% -0.70% 50.40% 3.90%
CD05 Napa-Santa Rosa 70.70% 69.70% -1.00% 62.80% 6.90%
CD11 Contra Costa 68.80% 67.50% -1.30% 61.10% 6.40%
CD50 East SD Co. 39.00% 37.60% -1.40% 30.70% 6.90%
CD18 Silicon Valley 69.60% 68.20% -1.40% 60.10% 8.10%
CD42 Corona 42.90% 41.40% -1.50% 35.00% 6.40%
CD01 Northeast Cal 42.00% 40.30% -1.70% 37.60% 2.70%
CD24 Santa Barbara 56.40% 54.00% -2.40% 46.70% 7.30%
CD02 North Coast 71.50% 69.00% -2.50% 64.10% 4.90%
CD52 SD 54.70% 52.10% -2.60% 42.70% 9.40%
CD45 Irvine 45.70% 43.00% -2.70% 33.30% 9.70%
CD26 Ventura Co 56.70% 54.00% -2.70% 46.00% 8.00%
CD48 Huntington Beach 45.80% 43.00% -2.80% 34.70% 8.30%
CD49 Carlsbad 49.10% 45.70% -3.40% 37.60% 8.10%
CD04 Foothills 43.00% 39.50% -3.50% 37.70% 1.80%

 

 

  

**CLASSIFIEDS**

  • California League of Bond Oversight Committees: Second Annual CaLBOC Statewide Conference - May 10, 2013 in Sacramento - Keynote speakers Bill Lockyer and Assemblymember Joan Buchanan - More info and registration
  • Join Mayor Christopher Cabaldon, Councilman Steve Hansen, Supervisor Phil Serna, the Rev. Faith Whitmore and Dr. Claire Pomeroy as they are honored as recipients of Four Freedoms Awards at the Sacramento Stonewall Democrats' 9th Annual Gala, Wednesday, May 15 at the Red Lion Hotel Woodlake Conference Center, Sacramento. Purchase tickets @ www.sacstonewall.org/events/4freedoms2013.

 

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Oil And Soda Taxes Advance In California Legislature
Patrick McGreevy @
latimes.com
SACRAMENTO -- Two controversial tax measures advanced Wednesday in the California Legislature — a penny-per-ounce levy on soda and a charge on oil pumped from the ground in the state.

Jerry Brown Signs Bill To Cut California Business-Filing Backlog
Jon Ortiz @
blogs.sacbee.com
In response to an embarrassing six-week queue of business filings, Gov. Jerry Brown signed a measure today that immediately sends $1.6 million to the California secretary of state's office to relieve the backlog.

Block Bill To Aid Community College Students Advances
Michael Gardner @
utsandiego.com
Legislation to restore $50 million worth of cuts imposed on Community College programs that help disabled and poor students cleared the Senate Education Committee Wednesday

Bill To Change California's Environmental Review Law Advances
Torey Van Oot @
blogs.sacbee.com
A bill that would make changes to California's landmark environmental review law moved forward in the state Senate Wednesday, as Democrats rejected a GOP-backed proposal as "too broad and comprehensive a change."

Part-timers To Lose Pay Amid Health Act's New Math
Chad Terhune @
latimes.com
Some workers are having their hours cut so employers won't have to cover them under Obamacare. But many will benefit from the healthcare law's premium subsidies and Medicaid expansion.

NYC Hedge Fund Spends Big In First Quarter Ca Lobbying Reports
Laurel Rosenhall @
blogs.sacbee.com
A review of California lobbying reports from the first quarter of 2013 shows heavy spending by a lot of Sacramento's usual interest groups: the oil industry, the California Chamber of Commerce, labor unions, health care companies and utilities.

Savvy Politicos Block The Shot
George Skelton @
latimes.com
Sacramento's Mayor Kevin Johnson, a former NBA all-star, teamed with a squad of connected political operatives to gain an edge in the fight to keep the Kings in town.

Medicaid has mixed record on improving health for poor, study says
Noam N. Levey @
latimes.com
WASHINGTON — As state leaders debate whether to expand their Medicaid programs next year under President Obama’s healthcare law, new research suggests the government insurance plan for the poor has only a mixed record of improving health.

Studentsfirst Under Scrutiny From The Left
Laurel Rosenhall @
blogs.sacbee.com
Michelle Rhee frequently says her StudentsFirst lobbying group is a bipartisan organization that backs Democrats and Republicans who support her vision for education: charter schools, vouchers and performance pay for teachers.

Leaders Of DWP Union Launch Tv Ads In Support Of Greuel Candidacy
Seema Mehta @
latimes.com
A committee controlled by the DWP union's leadership buys about $500,000 worth of TV airtime to run commercials, starting with a spot featuring former President Clinton.

Kevin McCarty To Run For Dickinson's Assembly Seat
Jim Sanders @
blogs.sacbee.com
Sacramento City Councilman Kevin McCarty will run again for the Assembly in 2014, four years after losing a close race for a legislative seat.

Duncan Says It’s Still Possible For State To Get Nclb Waiver | Edsource Today
edsource.org
The timing is tricky, and the issue is politically sensitive, because Duncan now has before him an application from nine California districts for a separate district waiver. That application, through their nonprofit, the California Office to Reform Education or CORE, has already undergone a formal federal review, and will be re-submitted, in response to extensive reviewers’ questions, sometime in May, Rick Miller, executive director of CORE, said this week.

Questions Remain About Kings' Fate - Kings/nba - The Sacramento Bee
sacbee.com


Shriver Or Schwarzenegger: Whose Reinvention Is Working Better?
Robin Abcarian @
latimes.com
Arnold Schwarzenegger and Maria Shriver: Whose reinvention is working out better?

Federal Reserve: Budget cuts, payroll tax hike are harming economy
Martin Crutsinger @
mercurynews.com
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday stood by its extraordinary efforts to stimulate the economy because unemployment remains high at 7.6 percent. The Fed said the economy and job market have been improving only moderately, held back by government spending cuts and tax increases.

California Teacher Evaluation Bill Fails Again
Jeremy B. White @
blogs.sacbee.com
Legislation that would alter how California schools judge teachers flunked another test on Tuesday, failing to advance for the second time in a week.

Is Parole The Answer For Overcrowding In California Prisons?
Katie Orr @
capradio.org
About 30 thousand inmates are serving life sentences in California prisons. Of those inmates, more than 9,000 are currently eligible for parole. UCLA Law Professor Sharon Dolovich says if the state is looking to reduce its prison population that might be a good place to start.

Duncan Hunter Battles Army Over Intel-gathering System
Austin Wright @
politico.com
Hunter, a former Marine, is a veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan. | Jay Westcott/POLITICO

What State Has The Highest Gasoline Taxes? California, Of Course
Ronald D. White @
latimes.com
California has the nation's highest taxes on gasoline, at 38.2 cents a gallon, according to the Energy Department's most recent survey of the 50 states.