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THE NOONER for November 7, 2012

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Below the jump, I get to the Winners the election (we'll give Losers a day of reprieve and cover them tomorrow). At this point, here's the new landscape (with the too close to calls):

  • State Senate: Democrats 28, Republicans 12 (Dems +3 -- SD17, SD27, SD31)
  • State Assembly: Democrats 54, Republicans 26 (Dems +2 -- AD32, AD61)
  • Congressional delegation: Democrats 34, Republicans 19 (Dems +4 -- CD07, CD26, CD36, CD41, CD52)

Here is the update in our hot elections (as of this morning--live results here). Bolded races are change in party races.


  • CD03 (Garamendi v. Vann) - Garamendi by 7.3%
  • CD07 (Bera v. Lungren) - Bera by 0.2% (too close to call -- 184 votes)
  • CD09 (Gill v. McNerney) - McNerney by 8.2%
  • CD10 (Denham v. Hernandez) - Denham by 7.6%
  • CD16 (Costa v. Whelan) - Costa by 9.0%
  • CD21 (Hernandez v. Valadao) - Valadao by 19.8%
  • CD24 (Capps v. Maldonado) - Capps by 9.6%
  • CD26 (Brownley v. Strickland) - Brownley by 3.4%
  • CD36 (Bono Mack v. Ruiz) - Ruiz by 2.8%
  • CD41 (Takano v. Tavaglione) - Takano by 12.8%
  • CD52 (Bilbray v. Peters) - Peters by 0.4% (too close to call - 685 votes)

State Senate:

  • SD05 (Berryhill v. Galgiani) - Berryhill by 2.0%
  • SD27 (Pavley v. Zink) - Pavley by 5.2%
  • SD31 (Miller v. Roth) - Roth by 6.8%
  • SD39 (Block v. Plescia) - Block by 14.8%

State Assembly:

  • AD08 (Cooley v. Tateishi) - Cooley by 4.4%
  • AD21 (Gray v. Mobley) - Gray by 12.2%
  • AD32 (Rios v. Salas) - Salas by 0.4% (too close to call - 268 votes)
  • AD40 (Morell v. Warner) - Morell by 2.8%
  • AD49 (Chau v. Lin) - Chau by 13.2%
  • AD61 (Batey v. Medina) - Medina by 16.8% (this is the Furutani seat moved to the growing IE by redistricting)
  • AD65 (Norby v. Quirk-Silva) - Quirk Silva by 1.0%
  • AD66 (Huey v. Muratsuchi) - Muratsuchi by 7.5%

Intra-party fights:

  • CD08 - Cook over Imus by 15.2%
  • CD15 - Swalwell over Stark by 6.2%
  • CD30 - Sherman over Berman by 21%
  • CD31 - Miller over Dutton by 10.4%
  • CD35 - Negrete McLeod over Baca by 11.4%
  • CD40 - Roybal-Allard over Sanchez by 18.8%
  • CD43 - Waters over Flores by 31.2%
  • CD44 - Hahn over Richardson by 20.0%
  • SD13 - Hill over Lieber by 33.8%
  • SD15 - Beall over Coto by 15.8%
  • AD01 - Dahle over Bosetti by 29.0%
  • AD02 - Chesbo over Lynch by 27.0%
  • AD05 - Bigelow over Oller by 5.4%
  • AD06 - Gaines over Pugno by 38.2%
  • AD10 - Levine over Allen by 1.2%
  • AD18 - Bonta over Guillen by 1.6%
  • AD19 - Ting over Breyer by 16.0%
  • AD20 - Quirk over Ong by 2.6%
  • AD23 - Patterson over Whalen by 9.8%
  • AD39 - Bocanegra over Alarcon by 17.0%
  • AD47 - Brown over Baca, Jr. by 12.4%
  • AD50 - Bloom over Butler by 0.2% (too close to call - 218 votes)
  • AD51 - Gomez over Lopez by 20.4%
  • AD59 - Jones-Sawyer over Robinson by 5.8%
  • AD62 - Bradford over Evans by 44.8%
  • AD67 - Melendez over Paule by 2.6%
  • AD72 - Allen over Edgar by 11.4%
  • AD76 - Chavez over Hodges by 15.6%



Congratulations to the 2013-14 California Legislature - from everyone at Shaw / Yoder / Antwih, Inc., Peterson Consulting, Inc. and Strategic Local Government Services, LLC!

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  • Jerry Brown - He was the underdog and he was alone. Progressive groups wanted the Millionaire's tax, labor was more concerned with killing Prop 32, and the Mungers tried to sandwich him between their mighty bread. The original campaign team didn't work out over organizational issues of lines of authority. So, Brown being Brown, he hunkered down in his Oakland loft and he and wife Anne Gust Brown worked the phones. And, they worked and worked. They were successful in keeping business neutral, and did what few people guessed the 74-year-old two-time governor could do--inspire the largest youth voter turnout (as percent of electorate) of any recent presidential. And, in doing so, he avoids "bellum omnium contra omnes."
  • Young voters - I know I've been harping on this. Polling firms undersampled 18-29 yo voters through the cycle, particularly after Prop. 30 became a rallying cry on campuses. In the last four presidentials, 18-29yos have ranged from 15% (1996) to 22% (2008). So, why were they only expected to be 12% of the California electorate in Monday's Field Poll projections? In the end, the exit poll found that 28% of California's electorate were 18-29 year olds. And, with they 63% yes vote on Prop 30, they single-handedly put Jerry Brown's tax measure over the top. This also led to a 1.9 million 20-point margin for Obama in California that ensured that he won the national popular vote.
  • Speaker John Perez - Everyone was looking at the likelihood that the State Senate would reach the sought two-thirds majority for Democrats, but from the day the maps were finalized, it was speculated that it would take a few cycles for the lower house. There were also several scenarios where Democrats lost seats in the Assembly. In the end, the Speaker returns to have at least 53 members, including an unlikely pick-up in AD65 in Orange County. If he also holds AD32 in the Central Valley, he has two-thirds as well. And, he did it while defending two caucus members (as questionable as that may be) against intra-party challenges in foreign districts.
  • Mod Dems - With high hopes for passing Dem-only bills, the moderate Democrats in both houses are among the most powerful, shifting the power from the moderate Republicans so influential in recent years--assuming Dems hold 54 in the Assembly.
  • Organized labor - Sure, they defeated Prop. 32, which is always likely with a large enough bankroll. However, in addition to perhaps getting two-thirds in both houses, they got voters to endorse a "tax the wealthy" ballot measure and a "tax out-of-state corporations" measure. That's an important ratification for their message made possible by a surge of young voters that are likely the least connected to the history and relevance of organized labor.
  • Tom Steyer - His Proposition 39 was complicated and largely flew under the radar. I know a fair amount about tax policy, but I don't think a single person I tried to explain the "choice" of single-sales factor vs. three-pronged tax calculation actually understood it. Now, that choice given as part of the deal for Republican votes for the 2008-09 budget (and again in 09-10) has been eliminated, schools get $500 million and clean energy gets $500 million for four years, and then $1 billion/year flows into the general fund (and schools).
  • Secretary of State Debra Bowen - After a difficult year fighting trying to keep Cal-Access held together with duct tape, the term-limited Secretary of State ran what has been a flawless election. While county clerks (see below) deserve much of the credit, the Secretary of State's website stayed up and fed data to dozens of other sites like mine.
  • County clerks - As read about embarassments with four-hour lines in Florida and Virginia, there were few reports of irregularities or long waits across California. And, with late online registration and the huge number of Californians that registered on the last day of the eligibility, a huge burden was put on the county clerk offices. Sure, it took a long time to get the results in last night, but that's largely a function of our decision as Californians to split our voting between in-person and mail ballots. And, you can't blame the Los Angeles County clerk for fog. 
  • Paul Mitchell and PDI - There are lots of firms from which to buy political data. However, few have the workhorse in Paul Mitchell, who moved an obscure political data firm with a massive database into news stories and the daily political lexicon. It was a brilliant move for PDI to bring Paul in after he wound down his redistricting practice, and our political world is all the better for this incredible resource. Some of you know this, but Paul and I met as community college students in 1992 with zero political experience.


Jerry Brown Declares Victory For His Tax Initiative
Kevin Yamamura @
Gov. Jerry Brown declared victory after his tax initiative seized a narrow lead Tuesday night, calling Proposition 30 a "unifying force" that countered the "Kool-Aid of the market ideologues."

Proposition 38 Rejected By Voters
Kevin Yamamura @
Voters on Tuesday handily rejected Proposition 38, an initiative raising income taxes on middle- and upper-class households for education.

Jerry Brown, California Democrats Appear To Be Big Winners In Election
Gov. Jerry Brown ’s $6-billion-a-year tax initiative to rescue California schools and the state's finances appeared to squeak by with a victory early Wednesday, and Democrats ' grip on Sacramento tightened as the party crept toward winning a super-majority in both houses of the Legislature.

Jerry Brown
David Siders @
Gov. Jerry Brown, successful in his ballot initiative to raise taxes and buoyed by the prospect of Democratic supermajorities in the state Legislature, said this morning that the state still faces "big issues" and that the challenge for Democrats will be to "earn and maintain the people's trust."

Brown's Closing Blitz For Prop. 30 Helped Turn Tide - Elections - The Sacramento Bee
Three weeks ago, Gov. Jerry Brown's ballot initiative to raise taxes was on the brink.

Gov. Jerry Brown's tax initiative leads in early exit polling
Kevin Yamamura @
Gov. Jerry Brown's tax initiative led in an initial exit poll Tuesday evening, giving comfort to advocates who grew concerned when recent surveys showed flagging support in the final month of the campaign.

Sacramento Sales Tax Measure Passes, Charter Panel Loses, 'the Claw' Phase-out Advances - Elections - The Sacramento Bee
The "claw" is beloved by some Sacramento residents who've grown accustomed to piling yard waste in the street. But as more residents use green waste bins, subsidies for the claw can't be justified.

California's Proposition 33 Auto Insurance Initiative Lagging
Marc Lifsher @
Proposition 33, an auto insurance initiative bankrolled by 91-year-old Mercury General Corp. Chairman George Joseph, was struggling late on election day.

Prop. 40, On State Senate Districts, Passes, Per Ap
Proposition 40, a referendum to uphold newly drawn state Senate districts, has passed, according to the Associated Press. Passage means the boundaries drawn last year stand. The measure was the least controversial one on the ballot. Even the Republican interests...

Boehner Lays Down A Marker On Taxes – Cnn Political Ticker - Blogs
"With this vote, the American people have also made clear that there is no mandate for raising tax rates," Boehner told supporters at the Ronald Reagan building in Washington. CNN reported Tuesday night that it was mathematically impossible for the GOP to win back control of the Senate, but the outcome of the presidential race remained unclear.

Calif. Voters Approve Brown's Sales, Income Taxes
LOS ANGELES—California voters have approved Gov. Jerry Browns plan to raise income taxes on the wealthy and raise the statewide sales tax to fund K-12 schools and help balance the state budget.

Death Penalty Repeal Trails Midway Through - Sfgate
The measure would reduce the maximum sentence for capital murder to life in prison without the possibility of parole and would apply retroactively to the more than 720 condemned inmates on the nation's largest death row. The Prop. 34 campaign, by contrast, stressed the financial costs of the state's death penalty - $184 million a year, according to one study - and the structural paralysis of its system. Since executions resumed in the state in 1992, only 13 inmates have been put to death. With public support for capital punishment declining nationally, apparently in response to falling crime rates and DNA exonerations of death row inmates, death penalty laws have been repealed in the last five years by a court in New York and by legislatures in New Jersey, Illinois, New Mexico and Connecticut. Prop. 34's sponsors, longtime death penalty opponents including religious liberals and the American Civil Liberties Union, called the measure the Savings, Accountability and Full Enforcement Act.

Dan Lungren, Ami Bera Locked In Dead Heat In CD7
Torey Van Oot @
Dan Lungren's return to Congress remained in jeopardy Tuesday, with the Gold River Republican and Democratic challenger Ami Bera locked in a near dead heat for a suburban Sacramento House seat.

Assembly Speaker Says He Has Supermajority In Lower House
Torey Van Oot @
Democratic candidates led their GOP opponents in two swing Assembly districts early Wednesday morning, and an upset was brewing in a race between Fullerton Mayor Sharon Quirk-Silva and GOP Assemblyman Chris Norby. Quirk-Silva led Norby by 50.5 percent to 49.5 percent in the 65th Assembly District with 100 percent of precincts reporting. The difference amounts to 1,004 votes.

Dan Walters: California Is Still A Backwater In Presidential Race
Dan Walters @
Many of California's political contests were still in doubt late Tuesday, but long before the polls closed – months before, in fact – everyone knew that President Barack Obama would win the state's largest-in-the-nation bloc of 55 electoral votes.

Opponents of Jerry Brown's California tax measure concede
David Siders @
If the photograph of a bottle of Scotch whiskey posted on Twitter early this morning by the spokesman for the campaign against Gov. Jerry Brown's ballot initiative to raise taxes wasn't a clear enough acknowledgment of defeat, the statement issued this morning was.

Calif. rejects anti-union prop, alters 3 strikes
JULIET WILLIAMS, Associated Press @
California voters rejected an initiative aimed at thwarting the political influence of unions, turned down a broad-based income tax to raise money for public schools and revised the harshest three-strikes law in the nation, while a handful of other contentious ballot initiatives remained too close to call in an election that featured more than $370 million in spending for and against the 11 ballot measures.

S.F. Supervisors: Mar, Breed, Yee Lead - Sfgate
The outcomes could have significant implications for land-use decisions in the city, including on more condominium conversions, the Golden State Warriors' proposed waterfront arena and California Pacific Medical Center's plan to build two new hospitals, observers said. The race to represent District One, the Richmond, was the city's only one-on-one contest for supervisor, making it unlikely to hinge on ranked-choice voting, in which voters pick their top three candidates. In early returns, incumbent Supervisor Eric Mar, a progressive, was leading challenger David Lee, a moderate who heads the Chinese American Voters Education Committee. In District Five, a stronghold for the progressive faction on the city's political left, appointed Supervisor Christina Olague was trailing badly in her first election. The leading fundraiser in the race, London Breed, the executive director of the African American Art and Culture Complex, opened up a surprising double-digit early lead.

Proposition 35, On Human Trafficking, Passes, Per Ap
Proposition 35, an effort to increase prison sentences and fines for human traffickers, has passed, according to the Associated Press. A long list of prosecutors, law enforcement officials and politicians endorsed the measure. More than $2 million from Chris Kelly,...

Death Penalty Supporters Claim Victory - Capitol And California - The Sacramento Bee
Sacramento District Attorney Jan Scully holds a No on Prop. 34 poster she signed as staffer Jennifer Kovaleski and others look on Tuesday night.

Calif. approves Brown tax hike to aid budget
JULIET WILLIAMS, Associated Press @
California voters approved Gov. Jerry Brown's initiative to raise sales and income taxes to help balance the state budget but rejected an initiative aimed at thwarting the political influence of unions, turned down a broad-based income tax to raise money for public schools and rejected labeling of genetically engineered foods.

California Tax Measures: Props. 30 And 39 Emerge Victorious; Prop 38 Loses
Gov. Jerry Browns tax measure wins support in Bay Area but not inland areas; Proposition 39 business tax wins but attorney Molly Mungers school tax, Proposition 38, loses badly.

Utility Tax For Marijuana Growers Approved In Northern California
Kimi Yoshino @
Three Northern California communities on Tuesday moved to impose or maintain restrictions on the medical marijuana economy. In the Humboldt County town of Arcata, 69% of voters ensured easy passage of a utility tax aimed at households growing marijuana indoors....