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THE NOONER for November 5, 2012

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ELECTION NIGHT RESULTS: Bookmark www.aroundthecapitol.com/results for a single page of all California results beginning at 8pm tomorrow night. Results will also be posted live on the AroundTheCapitol district pages.

Here is the list of all voter registration changes by district since May. Statewide:

  • Dems: +523,501 (+7%)
  • Reps: +170,116 (+3.3%) 

THE PLAYING FIELD - MY FINAL RATINGS:

Generally, I don't like to keep races as "swing" or "toss-up" down the stretch. With fundraising, independent spending, voter registration, and vote-by-mail returns, we have enough indicators to generally be able to say that one side has momentum. Thus, this is what I see the day before the election on this year's battleground races.

Congress:

  • CD03 (Garamendi v. Vann) - Safe Democrat
  • CD07 (Bera v. Lungren) - Toss-up/Leaning Democrat
  • CD09 (Gill v. McNerney) - Toss-up/Leaning Democrat
  • CD10 (Denham v. Hernandez) - Toss-up/Leaning Republican
  • CD16 (Costa v. Whelan) - Likely Democrat
  • CD21 (Hernandez v. Valadao) - Likely Republican
  • CD24 (Capps v. Maldonado) - Leans Democrat
  • CD26 (Brownley v. Strickland) - Toss-up/Leaning Democrat
  • CD36 (Bono Mack v. Ruiz) - Toss-up/Leaning Republican
  • CD41 (Takano v. Tavaglione) - Leans Democrat
  • CD52 (Bilbray v. Peters) - Toss-up/Leaning Republican

State Senate:

  • SD05 (Berryhill v. Galgiani) - Leaning Democrat
  • SD27 (Pavley v. Zink) - Leaning Democrat
  • SD31 (Miller v. Roth) - Leaning Republican
  • SD39 (Block v. Plescia) - Likely Democrat

State Assembly:

  • AD08 (Cooley v. Tateishi) - Leaning Democrat
  • AD21 (Gray v. Mobley) - Leaning Democrat
  • AD32 (Rios v. Salas) - Leaning Democrat
  • AD40 (Morell v. Warner) - Likely Republican
  • AD49 (Chau v. Lin) - Likely Democrat
  • AD61 (Batey v. Medina) - Leaning Democrat
  • AD66 (Huey v. Muratsuchi) - Pure toss-up

If all prove true, here would be the make-up of the delegations:

  • Congress (currently 34 Democrats, 18 Republicans): Dems pick up two net seats (lose "Cardoza's" CD21, pick up Lungren's CD07, Takano's CD41, and Gallegly's CD26) for 36 and 17 Republicans. Bera/Lungren could be very close, and it was difficult to give that a lean rating at all. I join Larry Sabato in putting it as a lean Democrat, mostly because of VBM/registration.
  • State Senate (currently 25 Democrats, 15 Republicans): Dems pick up net 3 seats (with Blakeslee's SD17) for 28 Democrats, 12 Republicans).
  • State Assembly (currently 52 Democrats, 28 Republicans): Dems likely to pick up 2 seats (Valadao's AD32 and Miller's AD61) for 53 Democrats, 27 Republicans). If Muratsuchi wins AD66, Dems get two-thirds in the lower house--something most of us have considered unlikely this year.  

Democrats are in a very good mood about the state Legislature, but will be disappointed with the House of Representatives results. It's clear that Nancy Pelosi will not gain 25 seats to get the gavel back, and there is a real possibility that the Democratic caucus will be smaller in January. In California, it's very likely that what could have been a 7-seat pick-up will only net two seats. Of course, a swing of a thousand votes each in CD10, CD36, and CD52 could increase the take from two to five.

That's it. In looking at 153 races, I'm certainly wrong on a few. This is a status quo election, with the changes mostly consequence of redistricting and registration gains. The toss-ups are all close, and very easily can be moved to one side or the other depending on turnout. 

It's time to let the voters decide. Before we do that, let's look at what our 400 contest participants said . . . below the jump.

 

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THE WISDOM OF THE CROWD:  Below are the majority (plurality for some ballot measures) selections in The Nooner election contest, which had 400 participants. My picks appear next to the majority/plurality picks, and I've put them in red where they are different than the overall picks. I reiterate that these are not my choices as to who I believe is the best candidate, but rather who will win. In fact, I've given money to some candidates I see as underdogs because of friendships and community college connections.

While I can't release the names of who participated (except the Top 25's username that they chose will be posted), I can tell you that it was an impressive and bipartisan group of California policy and political leaders.

I hope to have the scores tabulated by Thursday, of course depending on whether we have any dangling undecided races.

Proposition 30 (Gov Brown's taxes): 50-55% (44.2% of participants) (Scott's pick: 50-55%)

Proposition 32 (Political contributions): 40-45% (37.2%) (Scott's pick: 35-40%)

Proposition 36 (Three Strikes): 55-60% (30.1%) (Scott's pick: 55-60%)

Proposition 37 (Genetically engineered food): 45-50% (31.9%) (Scott's pick: 45-50%)

Proposition 38 (Molly Munger education tax): 35-40% (36.5%) (Scott's pick: 35-40%)

Proposition 39 (Single sales factor/clean energy tax): 50-55% (28.2%) (Scott's pick: 50-55%)

CD03: Garamendi over Mann (96.3%) (Scott's pick: Garamendi)

CD07: Bera over Lungren (50.4%) (Scott's pick: Bera)

CD08: Cook over Imus (80.5%) (Scott's pick: Cook)

CD09: McNerney over Gill (91.8%) (Scott's pick: McNerney)

CD10: Denham over Hernandez (57.0%) (Scott's pick: Denham)

CD15: Stark over Swalwell (58.4%) (Scott's pick: Swalwell)

CD16: Costa over Whelan (95.4%) (Scott's pick: Costa)

CD21: Hernandez over Valadao (60.0%) (Scott's pick: Valadao)

CD24: Capps over Maldonado (73.2%) (Scott's pick: Capps)

CD26: Brownley over Strickland (65.1%) (Scott's pick: Brownley)

CD30: Sherman over Berman (64.3%) (Scott's pick: Sherman)

CD31: Miller over Dutton (82.9%) (Scott's pick: Miller)

CD35: Baca over McLeod (74.4%) (Scott's pick: Baca)

CD36: Bono Mack over Ruiz (74.4%) (Scott's pick: Bono Mack)

CD39: Royce over Chen (91.5%) (Scott's pick: Royce)

CD41: Takano over Tavaglione (62.5%) (Scott's pick: Takano)

CD47: Lowenthal over DeLong (94.1%) (Scott's pick: Lowenthal)

CD52: Bilbray over Peters (87.2%) (Scott's pick: Bilbray)

SD05: Galgiani over Berryhill (65.8%) (Scott's pick: Galgiani)

SD27: Pavley over Zink (90.6%) (Scott's pick: Pavley)

SD31: Miller over Roth (57.9%) (Scott's pick: Miller)

AD01: Dahle over Bosetti (59.6%) (Scott's pick: Bosetti)

AD05: Bigelow over Oller (61.2%) (Scott's pick: Bigelow)

AD06: Gaines over Pugno (83.7%) (Scott's pick: Gaines)

AD08: Cooley over Tateishi (88.3%) (Scott's pick: Cooley)

AD10: Allen over Levine (76.7%) (Scott's pick: Allen)

AD18: Bonta over Guillen (78.1%) (Scott's pick: Bonta)

AD19: Ting over Breyer (80.7%) (Scott's pick: Ting)

AD20: Quirk over Ong (70.7%) (Scott's pick: Quirk)

AD21: Gray over Mobley (88.8%) (Scott's pick: Gray)

AD23: Whalen over Patterson (68.8%) (Scott's pick: Whalen)

AD28: Fong over Walsh (95.1%) (Scott's pick: Fong)

AD32: Salas over Rios (93.1%) (Scott's pick: Salas)

AD39: Alarcon over Bocanegra (52.4%) (Scott's pick: Bocanegra)

AD40: Morrell over Warner (76.0%) (Scott's pick: Morell)

AD47: Baca, Jr. over Brown (73.4%) (Scott's pick: Baca, Jr.)

AD49: Chau over Lin (87.2%) (Scott's pick: Chau)

AD50: Butler over Bloom (64.0%) (Scott's pick: Bloom)

AD51: Gomez over Lopez (62.8%) (Scott's pick: Gomez)

AD61: Medina over Batey (73.4%) (Scott's pick: Medina)

AD65: Norby over Quirk-Silva (81.4%) (Scott's pick: Norby)

AD67: Melendez over Paule (60.8%) (Scott's pick: Melendez)

AD72: Edgar over Allen (80.5%) (Scott's pick: Edgar)

AD76: Chavez over Hodges (60.8%) (Scott's pick: Hodges)

 

WHAT HAPPENED??? While I had to back out, on Thursday Capitol Weekly will hold what I am sure will be a great post-mortem on the election.

 


TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
$53 Million Given To State's House Races - Sfgate
sfgate.com
More than 80 outside groups, including independent super PACs, are pouring money into the state in an effort to shape its 53-member delegation, the nation's largest, which now is composed of 34 Democrats and 19 Republicans. From Hayward to San Diego, more seats are in play than in at least a generation because of election reforms that have turned California from a cruise ship for incumbents to a minefield for both parties. Stark, who lives in Maryland and was seldom seen on the campaign trail after several stumbles this year, has sent out nasty mailers accusing Swalwell of affiliating with the Tea Party and attacking Social Security and Medicare. The National Republican Congressional Committee alone has invested $10 million in California House races, trying to maintain its foothold in the increasingly blue state, while Democrats say they can gain as many as a half-dozen seats, counting on riding the coattails of President Obama, who remains popular in the state. Lungren has gotten a lift from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the House Majority PAC, and Bera has help from several unions, physicians groups and environmental organizations. Daniel Scarpinato, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said the race is "tight as a tick," with voters in the district siding against Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman but for Republican Senate candidate Carly Fiorina two years ago.

Darrell Steinberg Makes Final Push For Ca Senate Super Majority
Torey Van Oot @
blogs.sacbee.com
Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg is spending the final days of the campaign touring a handful of swing districts that could give his party a super majority in the upper house.

Brown Takes Prop. 30 Campaign To L.A. Churches - Elections - The Sacramento Bee
sacbee.com
LOS ANGELES – The choir sang, morning announcements were made and Mildred Rodgers watched as Gov. Jerry Brown took the pulpit at West Angeles Church of God in Christ.

Last-minute Advice On State Ballot Measures
George Skelton @
latimes.com
The columnist's take on 11 propositions for voters heading to the polls Tuesday.

The Caucus: Fate of Maryland Same-Sex Marriage Ballot Measure Is Uncertain
EMMARIE HUETTEMAN @
thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com
Supporters of Maryland's same-sex marriage law hope to parlay the backing of President Obama, who is expected to win the state, into a victory.

California Ballot Filled With Competitive Races
dailybulletin.com
SACRAMENTO, Calif.—Tuesday's general election will be a super-charged affair compared to California's sleepy primary in June, when less than a third of registered voters bothered to cast a ballot.

Dan Walters: Bankruptcy Filings By California Cities May Rein In Pensions - Dan Walters - The Sacramento Bee
sacbee.com
Dan Walters

Campaign Spending To Promote Props. 30 And 38 Exceeds $100 Million | Edsource Today
contrast, @
edsource.org
Proponents of Propositions 30 and 38 have now poured a combined total of $117 million to convince voters to support their respective measures, both of which are intended to raise billions of dollars for schools and other programs.

Election 2012: More Than 800,000 Bay Area Residents Have Already Voted
Local @
mercurynews.com
In some Bay Area counties, about a quarter of registered voters already have cast their ballots by mail.

Road Map Of Contributions In Arizona Nonprofit Case
Kevin Yamamura @
blogs.sacbee.com
The actual donors behind the $11 million that landed in California's initiative battles last month remain a mystery, but two more layers became known Monday when the Arizona nonprofit in question revealed two other opaque nonprofits that routed the money its way.

Election Day Hashtags: How To Avoid Twitter Overload
washingtonpost.com
Your Twitter feed could be an invaluable resource on Election Day. Or it could be a high-volume zoo, as many complained it was during the debates, with literally billions of characters of snark and misinformation clogging your feed and drowning out informative nuggets.

Raley's Workers Walk Off Job In Northern California Contract Battle - Business - The Sacramento Bee
sacbee.com
Raley's employee Rendell Ng pickets Sunday morning outside the store on West Capitol Avenue in West Sacramento. Raley's workers struck the company for the first time in its 77-year history after more than a year of talks, culminating with three days of marathon negotiations.

The Caucus: Campaign Diary: Candidates Spending Final Day in Swing States
HELENE COOPER, ASHLEY PARKER and MICHAEL BARBARO @
thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com
A running diary of the last day of campaigning for President Obama and Mitt Romney before Election Day.

Dan Walters Daily
Dan Smith @
blogs.sacbee.com
Dan says a surge in voter registration among young Democrats could help Gov. Jerry Brown and Proposition 30 on Tuesday.

Tight Presidential Race May Come Down To Knocking On Doors
David Lauter and David G. Savage, Washington Bureau @
latimes.com
The tight race between President Obama and Mitt Romney could come down to which side is best at the old-fashioned campaign tactic of going door to door to get out the vote.

Brown stumps for Prop. 30 in SD
utsandiego.com
Gov. Jerry Brown attended a get-out-the-vote rally at Hoover High School Monday to promote his tax-increase initiative, Prop. 30.

AM Alert
Micaela Massimino @
blogs.sacbee.com
If California's elementary, middle school and high school students were the state's only voters, only two of the 11 propositions on Tuesday's ballot would fail: Proposition 32 on campaign finance, and Proposition 34 to abolish the death penalty, though the latter just barely.

Compton sends CalPERS checks totalling $2.07 million in pension dispute
sacbee.com
The city of Compton sent CalPERS checks totalling $2.07 million after getting sued by the pension fund for falling behind on its payments.

Sean Sullivan
washingtonpost.com
Election Day isn't even here yet, but already, voting-related issues have popped up in several swing states.

The Caucus: TimesCast Politics: Final Moments of the 2012 Campaign
THE NEW YORK TIMES @
thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com
Counting the election in hours, not days. | Ground game in Ohio. | Where to watch for possible voting problems Tuesday. | Bill Clinton as the closer. | How to watch the last-minute polls.

Ryan says prayer, rosary sustained him through campaign
Alana Semuels @
latimes.com
CLEVELAND -- Prayer has sustained Republican vice presidential candidate Rep. Paul D. Ryan through his long days of campaigning; he keeps a rosary in his pocket and says the serenity prayer every morning.

State Supreme Court Wants Arizona Donors Audited
Chris Megerian and Maura Dolan @
latimes.com
The high court orders a group that donated $11 million to a fund fighting Prop. 30 and supporting Prop. 32. to identify its contributors.

Insight-mail-in Ballots: The Hanging Chads Of 2012? | Reuters
Peter Henderson @
reuters.com
Sun Nov 4, 2012 6:59am EST

Middle Class Faces Quick Impact From Fiscal Cliff In Form Of Alternative Minimum Tax
washingtonpost.com
The best hope for a deal to avoid the “fiscal cliff” may lie with the alternative minimum tax, an obscure provision of the tax code that is about to become alarmingly relevant to millions of middle-class taxpayers.