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THE NOONER for October 26, 2012

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E-11

GAME 3: Saturday @ 5:07pm PDT - Giants @ Tigers
GAME 4: Sunday @ 5:07pm PDT - Giants @ Tigers

I have been wavering on having another election contest, but enough of you have asked that I'll put one together over the weekend and open voting through next week. Study up! If you're interested in sponsoring prizes for plugs in the Nooner, let me know!

VBM REPORT: 1,791,597 (21% of absentees, 10% of registered voters) have voted. CD21 had a big batch of Fresno VBMs come in, dropping the Dem advantage to 11% (from 17% yesterday).

LAT/USC Dornsife

Proposition 34: Death Penalty Repeal. Initiative Statute.

Yes: 44%
No: 43%
Undecided: 13%

Proposition 36: Three Strikes Law. Sentencing for Repeat Felony Offenders. Initiative Statute.

Yes: 64%
No: 23%%
Undecided: 13%

I have updated the ballot measure polling averages, which appear after the jump and are also regularly updated on my site.

PROP30'S UPHILL BATTLE: The governor's tax increase has a very uphill battle at this point, after a hammering from the No on 30 campaign and mixed messages associated with Molly Munger's Proposition 38. Most notable to me was the age demographic split in the LAT/USC poll:

  • 18-29: 61% Yes (13% undecided)
  • 30-39: 50% Yes (8% undecided)
  • 40-49: 38% Yes  (14% undecided)
  • 50-64: 45% Yes (7% undecided)
  • 65 Over: 40% Yes (13% undecided)

With 18-39 year-olds expected to comprise 29.6% of the electorate and the rest constituting 70.4%, that's just not a winning coalition. The big concern is the 40-49 year olds, a group I join in December. I've been watching this group closely and they have been particularly conservative on tax issues, likely because they are feeling the hit in the job and real estate markets, but also may have seen their kids already move through public school.

Further, let's look at 2009's Proposition 1A, the temporary tax increase and spending cap, also ostensibly to fund education. It's probably the most analagous tax measure, despite the low turnout in that May special election. The Field Poll 22 days before the election had 40% Yes, 49% No, and 11% Undecided among likely voters. However, the ballot measure was crushed at the polls--34.6% to 65.4%. Of course, it's unclear whether the Field Poll's likely voter screen was too broad in an election that had only 28.4% turnout, but having all of the undecided voters break no along with 5.4% of the "yes" vote is noteworthy. (PPIC was 52% Yes, 35% No, 13% Undecided among likely voters in a poll that sampled through May 4.)

Over the next eleven days, the governor has three challenges.

First, he must energize the base and those young people that are his supporters. Second, he must win over about a third of his base voters (57% of public employees, 37% of Dems) that are in the "no" or "undecided" category. Finally, he must counter the emerging narrative that the measure is going down. As we saw in Prop. 1A, people like to be with winners--candidates and ballot measures, and will walk away if they think Prop. 30 is futile.

Today, he's working on prong one, with appearances at UC Santa Cruz and the NAACP. One advantage for Brown is that his approval rating among likely voters is 45%, compared to 33% for Schwarzenegger in the month before his tax-defining initiative. Similarly, the Legislature's job approval is 28%, double that of May 2009. Nothing to write home about, but a modestly better position from which to try to sell a tax increase.

On the media call yesterday, the LAT/USC pollsters identified that 6% of the "Yes on 38" voters are voting no on 30. Chris Megarian has more on this, and quotes Stan Greenberg as saying "This is likely to turn back," meaning that he sees the opportunity for the governor to win it.

In the end, if he can hold the 46% of current supporters, the governor needs 37% of the undecideds to break to Yes on Prop. 30. It's certainly possible, although an uphill battle. One challenge is that when poll respondents were read both supporting and opposing arguments, opinion of likely voters flipped from 46-42 to 42-46. Since the "no" side seemingly has a blank check with $13m more from Charles Munger, Jr. over the last few days, and the governor had $9 million on hand through October 20, there will be strong competition to dominate with a supporting message.

If you follow me on Twitter, you know that I'm a strong supporter of Prop 30 for the community colleges I represent. However, as I must tell my college presidents who will likely be facing a $545 million cut in the current year, they must be prepared for it to fail.

You may remember the discussion earlier this week about the new independent expenditure "Barbarians at the Gate," which is spending against Cathleen Galgiani in SD05. Well, in last night's filing, the committee disclosed that all of its money ($35,000 $13,500) has come from the "Defending the Republic." The Defending the Republic, in turn, disclosed that its money has come from CTA Truck Unit PAC ($10,000), California Grocers Assoc Independent Expenditure Committee ($25,000), and PAQ, Inc. dba Stockton/Lodi Food 4 Less ($35,000).

$$$: Last night was the deadline for state committees to report from October 1 through October 20. The reports are updated on the cash overview page and on the Around The Capitol district pages.

CD16: The Central Valley Independent PAC that is spending against Jim Costa in CD16 is funded entirely by the Double B Land Company in Fresno, which has put $130,000 into the account. However, the Fresno Bee's John Ellis reports that the committee has reserved $200,000 in television time, so more money must be forthcoming.

CD30: SurveyUSA: Brad Sherman 44%, Howard Berman 33%, Undecided 22%

PROP40: Who supports Prop. 40? Anyone with a brain [Jim Newton @ LAT] And, according to my polling averages, 54.8% of voters are either undecided if they have a brain or don't have one.

$$$: Independent spending pours into California congressional races [Jean Merl & Richard Simon @ LAT]

SANDY EGGO MAYOR: Carl DeMaio 46%, Bob Filner 36%, Undecided 18%.  DeMaio is getting 22% of the Democratic vote, while Filner is pulling only 7% of Republicans. [USD Center for Education Policy and Law/UT San Diego, n=614, landline/cell, 10/14-10/17/2012, +/-4%]  

FRENEMIES: Top two ballot turns allies into enemies [Marisa Lagos @SFChron]

TOP-TWO WASTE: The Democratic Party continues to spend big money [AD10 | AD50] in the Assembly's intra-party fights instead of the shots at 54 votes.

#FOLLOW: The Daily News has compiled a list of Southern California lawmaker twitter accounts.

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BALLOT MEASURE POLLING AVERAGES

The CBRT/Pepperdine poll isn't coming out until Tuesday, so I went ahead and ran new ballot measure polling averages. As a reminder, these averages look at the field of public polls, which are then weighted on recency and methodology.

Proposition 30: Temporary Taxes to Fund Education. Guaranteed Local Public Safety Funding. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.

Yes: 49.0% (-1.8%)
No: 41.2%
Undecided: 8.7%

Proposition 31: State Budget. State and Local Government. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.
Yes: 26.5% (-4.2%)
No: 42.3%%
Undecided: 31.1%

Proposition 32: Prohibits Political Contributions by Payroll Deduction. Prohibitions on Contributions to Candidates. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 41.7% (-2.7%)
No: 46.0%
Undecided: 11.0%

Proposition 33: Changes Law to Allow Auto Insurance Companies to Set Prices Based on a Driver's History of Insurance Coverage. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 54.8% (-1.0%)
No: 33.6%
Undecided: 23.1%

Proposition 34: Death Penalty Repeal. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 43.5% (-0.4%)
No: 44.3%
Undecided: 12.2%

Proposition 35: Human Trafficking. Penalties. Sex Offender Registration. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 79.7% (-2.5%)
No: 12.3%
Undecided: 8.0%

Proposition 36: Three Strikes Law. Sentencing for Repeat Felony Offenders. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 67.0% (-4.5%)
No: 20.6%
Undecided: 12.5%

Proposition 37: Genetically Engineered Foods. Mandatory Labeling. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 49.0% (-7.2%)%
No: 38.6%
Undecided: 12.2%

Proposition 38: Tax for Education and Early Childhood Programs. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 41.2% (-0.9%)
No: 48.7%
Undecided: 9.9%

Proposition 39: Tax Treatment for Multistate Businesses. Clean Energy and Energy Efficiency Funding. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 54.2% (-0.5%)
No: 30.7%
Undecided: 15.1%

Proposition 40: Redistricting. State Senate Districts. Referendum.
Yes: 44.2% (+0.0%)
No: 25.8%
Undecided: 30.0%

 

Ballot Measure Endorsements
PaperP30P31P32P33P34P35P36P37P38P39P40
Bakersfield Californian N Y Y N Y Y Y N Y Y Y
LA Daily News Y Y Y N Y Y Y N N N Y
LATimes Y N N N Y N  Y N N Y Y
MercNews/BANG Y Y N N Y Y Y N N Y Y
OCRegister N N Y Y N Y Y N N N Y
Press-Enterprise N N Y N N N Y N N Y Y
SacBee Y N N N Y  N Y N N Y Y
SFChron Y Y N N Y Y Y N N N Y
UTSanDiego N Y Y N   Y Y N N N Y

 

Federal Independent Expenditure Reports
Independent SpenderCandidatePurposeAmountDate
American Action Network Julia Brownley (Oppose) Mail Production $5,583.87 10/24/12
American Action Network Julia Brownley (Oppose) Mail Postage $7,700.00 10/25/12
American Action Network Julia Brownley (Oppose) Postage Mail $7,700.00 10/25/12
American Action Network Julia Brownley (Oppose) Mail Production $5,583.87 10/25/12
American Action Network Jose Hernandez (Oppose) Mail Production/TV Production $20,404.99 10/23/12
CREDO SuperPac Dan Lungren (Oppose) Field Organizer $426.68 10/24/12
CREDO SuperPac Dan Lungren (Oppose) Phonesr $1,814.57 10/24/12
CREDO SuperPac Dan Lungren (Oppose) Web Advertising $2,500.00 10/24/12
CREDO SuperPac Dan Lungren (Oppose) Field Origanizer $3426.68 10/24/12
CREDO SuperPac Dan Lungren (Oppose) Field Organizer $106.67 10/24/12
American Action Network Julia Brownley (Oppose) Postage Mail $7,700.00 10/24/12
American Action Network Julia Brownley (Oppose) Mail Production $6,583.87 10/24/12
House Majority PAC Tony Stickland (Oppose) Direct Mail $12,023.77 10/24/12
House Majority PAC Dan Lungren (Oppose) Television Advertising $49,735.77 10/24/12
Friends of Democracy Mary Bono Mack (Oppose) Mail $42,807.40 10/16/12
Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies Jose Hernandez (Oppose) TV/Media Production $11,507.00 10/16/12
Humane Society Legislative Fund Tony Strickland (Support) Staff Time $6.08 10/25/12
Humane Society Legislative Fund Gary Miller (Support) Staff Time $6.08 10/25/12
Humane Society Legislative Fund Tony Strickland (Support) Printing $7,542.00 10/25/12
Humane Society Legislative Fund Gary Miller (Support) Printing $32,742.00 10/25/12
Humane Society Legislative Fund Gary Miller (Support) Staff Time $8.10 10/25/12
Humane Society Legislative Fund Tony Strickland (Support) Staff Time $4.05 10/25/12
Humane Society Legislative Fund Gary Miller (Support) Staff Time $4.05 10/25/12
Humane Society Legislative Fund Gary Miller (Support) Staff Time $24.16 10/25/12
Humane Society Legislative Fund Tony Strickland (Support) Staff Time $12.08 10/25/12
Humane Society Legislative Fund Gary Miller (Support) Staff Time $24.16 10/25/12
Humane Society Legislative Fund Gary Miller (Support) Staff Time $17.18 10/25/12
Humane Society Legislative Fund Tony Strickland (Support) Staff Time $17.18 10/25/12
Blue America PAC IE Cmte Howard "Buck" McKeon (Oppose) TV Advertising $15,000.00 10/25/12
America Unity PAC Inc. Raul Ruiz (Oppose) Media Production $11,425.78 10/24/12
America Unity PAC Inc. Raul Ruiz (Oppose) Media Buy $200,000.00 10/24/12
America Unity PAC Inc. Raul Ruiz (Oppose) Online Ads $2,584.00 10/24/12
Central Valley Independent PAC Jim Costa (Oppose) Media Production $13,609.00 10/24/12
Committee to Elect an Effective Valley Congressman Howard Berman (Support) Slate Mail $3,250.00 10/25/12
Committee to Elect an Effective Valley Congressman Howard Berman (Support) Slate Mail $3,025.00 10/25/12
The Lincoln Club of Orange County Federal PAC Gary DeLong (Support) Printing & Mailing Costs $10,000.00 10/25/12
Environment America Action Fund Ami Bera (Support) Payment for voter contact program $10,000.00 10/25/12
America Shining Ed Royce (Oppose) Television Ad $4,801.20 10/24/12
America Shining Ed Royce (Oppose) Television Ad Production $1,545.00 10/24/12
America Shining Ed Royce (Oppose) Newspaper Ad Design $140.00 10/24/12
America Shining Ed Royce (Oppose) Newspaper Ad $287.10 10/24/12
America Shining Ed Royce (Oppose) Newspaper Ad $282.00 10/23/12
America Shining Ed Royce (Oppose) Direct Mail & Postage $31,967.60 10/24/12
America Shining Ed Royce (Oppose) Newspaper Ad $600.00 10/24/12
Friends of Democracy Mary Bono Mack (Oppose) Mail $42,807.40 10/24/12
Spirit of Democracy America Gregg Imus (Oppose) Campaign Literature & Mailings $29,404.86 10/24/12
Spirit of Democracy America Abel Maldonado (Support) Campaign Literature & Mailings $14,199.52 10/24/12

 

State Independent Expenditure Reports
Committee Candidate (Support/Oppose) Amount Received Date Report Date
Alliance To Get California Working Political Action Committee Raul Bocanegra (Support) $24,841 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
American Federation Of Teachers Guild, Local 1931 San Diego And Grossmont Cuyamaca Community Colleges Committee On Political Education (aka: Aft Guild, Local 1931 - C.o.p.e) Kimberley Beatty (Support) $1,788 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
American Federation Of Teachers Guild, Local 1931 San Diego And Grossmont Cuyamaca Community Colleges Committee On Political Education (aka: Aft Guild, Local 1931 - C.o.p.e) William Ponder (Oppose) $333 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
American Federation Of Teachers Guild, Local 1931 San Diego And Grossmont Cuyamaca Community Colleges Committee On Political Education (aka: Aft Guild, Local 1931 - C.o.p.e) John Witt (Oppose) $2,658 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
American Federation Of Teachers Guild, Local 1931 San Diego And Grossmont Cuyamaca Community Colleges Committee On Political Education (aka: Aft Guild, Local 1931 - C.o.p.e) Mark Powell (Oppose) $3,400 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
American Federation Of Teachers Guild, Local 1931 San Diego And Grossmont Cuyamaca Community Colleges Committee On Political Education (aka: Aft Guild, Local 1931 - C.o.p.e) John Lee Evans (Support) $1,244 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
American Federation Of Teachers Guild, Local 1931 San Diego And Grossmont Cuyamaca Community Colleges Committee On Political Education (aka: Aft Guild, Local 1931 - C.o.p.e) Carl Demaio (Oppose) $1,595 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
American Federation Of Teachers Guild, Local 1931 San Diego And Grossmont Cuyamaca Community Colleges Committee On Political Education (aka: Aft Guild, Local 1931 - C.o.p.e) William Stewart (Support) $667 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
American Federation Of Teachers Guild, Local 1931 San Diego And Grossmont Cuyamaca Community Colleges Committee On Political Education (aka: Aft Guild, Local 1931 - C.o.p.e) Marne Foster (Support) $1,244 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
American Federation Of Teachers Guild, Local 1931 San Diego And Grossmont Cuyamaca Community Colleges Committee On Political Education (aka: Aft Guild, Local 1931 - C.o.p.e) Bernie Rhinerson (Support) $1,244 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
American Federation Of Teachers Guild, Local 1931 San Diego And Grossmont Cuyamaca Community Colleges Committee On Political Education (aka: Aft Guild, Local 1931 - C.o.p.e) Humberto Peraza (Support) $667 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
American Federation Of Teachers Guild, Local 1931 San Diego And Grossmont Cuyamaca Community Colleges Committee On Political Education (aka: Aft Guild, Local 1931 - C.o.p.e) J. Gregg Robinson (Support) $2,658 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
American Federation Of Teachers Guild, Local 1931 San Diego And Grossmont Cuyamaca Community Colleges Committee On Political Education (aka: Aft Guild, Local 1931 - C.o.p.e) Elizabeth Roach (Oppose) $1,335 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Bosetti For Assembly 2012; Northstate Farm And Business Pac, Supporting Rick Brian Dahle (Oppose) $28,565 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Building Industry Association Of San Diego County Pac (bia Pac) Proposition 35 (Support) $25,000 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
California Apartment Association Independent Expenditure Committee Adam Gray (Support) $22,665 10/25/2012 10/25/2012
California Professional Firefighters Ie Pac Jimmy Gomez (Support) $21,448 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
California Professional Firefighters Ie Pac Phil Ting (Support) $21,506 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
California Senior Advocates League Pac Bill Zimmerman (Support) $4,369 10/25/2012 10/25/2012
California Senior Advocates League Pac Rico Oller (Oppose) $35,349 10/25/2012 10/25/2012
California Senior Advocates League Pac Sue Kristjansson (Support) $4,802 10/25/2012 10/25/2012
California Taxpayers For Responsible Government Ray Grangoff (Support) $9,372 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
California Teachers Association Independent Expenditure Committee Joe Baca Jr. (i) (Support) $82,748 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
California Tribal Business Alliance Ie Pac Cheryl Brown (Support) $19,000 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
California Tribal Business Alliance Ie Pac Joe Baca (Oppose) $24,944 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
California Tribal Business Alliance Ie Pac Cheryl Brown (Support) $9,000 10/15/2012 10/25/2012
Californians Allied For Patient Protection Independent Expenditure Account Candidate Rudy Salas (Support) $33,100 10/25/2012 10/25/2012
Californians For Good Schools & Good Jobs Joe Coto (Oppose) $77,882 10/17/2012 10/25/2012
Californians For Good Schools & Good Jobs Joe Coto (Oppose) $54,708 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Californians For Jobs And A Strong Economy Jerry Hill (Support) $23,649 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Californians For Jobs And A Strong Economy Pedro Rios (Oppose) $11,000 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Cdf Firefighters Small Contributor Pac Brian Dahle (Support) $10,000 10/19/2012 10/25/2012
Chau For Assembly 2012, Independent Doctors For A Better Future To Support Ed Ed Chau (Support) $3,148 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Citizens Against Wasteful Spending Fran Pavley (Oppose) $9,416 10/25/2012 10/25/2012
Citizens For California Reform Bill Berryhill (Support) $41,553 10/22/2012 10/25/2012
Citizens For California Reform Cathleen Galgiani (Oppose) $31,443 10/25/2012 10/25/2012
Citizens For California Reform Bill Berryhill (Support) $1,264 10/25/2012 10/25/2012
Citizens For California Reform Cathleen Galgiani (Oppose) $82,575 10/22/2012 10/25/2012
Cooperative Of American Physicians Independent Expenditure Committee Jeff Miller (Support) $12,770 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Cooperative Of American Physicians Independent Expenditure Committee Richard Bloom (Support) $51,413 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Coto For Senate 2012, Edvoice Independent Expenditure Committee And Parents And Teachers For Putting Students First Supporting Joe Coto (Support) $10,099 10/23/2012 10/25/2012
Courage Campaign Issues Committee Prop. 30 - Temporary Taxes To Fund Education. Guar (Support) $2,600 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Courage Campaign Issues Committee Prop. 32 - Prohibits Political Contributions By Pa (Oppose) $2,600 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Dart Container Corporation Jeff Miller (Support) $12,365 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Defending The Republic Pac Cathleen Galgiani (Oppose) $26,922 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Democratic State Central Committee Of California Proposition 35 (Support) $174 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Democratic State Central Committee Of California Proposition 40 (Support) $156 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Family Farmers Working For A Better California, With Major Support By Western Growers Association Michael Allen (Oppose) $16,158 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Friends Of Pueblo Action Fund The Schools And Local Public Safety Protection Act (Support) $9,414 10/12/2012 10/25/2012
Friends Of Pueblo Action Fund Prohibits Political Contributions By Payroll Deduc (Oppose) $11,904 10/06/2012 10/25/2012
Friends Of Pueblo Action Fund Prohibits Political Contributions By Payroll Deduc (Oppose) $9,414 10/12/2012 10/25/2012
Friends Of Pueblo Action Fund The Schools And Local Public Safety Protection Act (Support) $11,904 10/06/2012 10/25/2012
Independent Voter Pac Political Contributions By Payroll Deduction. Cont (Oppose) $49,500 10/25/2012 10/25/2012
Independent Voter Pac Temporary Taxes To Fund Education. Guaranteed Loca (Support) $49,500 10/25/2012 10/25/2012
International Longshore And Warehouse Union Local 13 Pac The Special Exeptions Act (Oppose) $7,546 10/19/2012 10/25/2012
International Longshore And Warehouse Union Local 13 Pac The Special Exeptions Act (Oppose) $2,723 10/25/2012 10/25/2012
Jobspac, A Bi-partisan Coalition Of California Employers Ken Cooley (Oppose) $29,888 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Jobspac, A Bi-partisan Coalition Of California Employers Peter Tateishi (Support) $28,726 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Joseph, George Yes On Prop 33 (Support) $205,679 10/25/2012 10/25/2012
Lincoln Club Of Orange County Issues Pac, The Paycheck Protection Measure (Support) $1,500 10/25/2012 10/25/2012
Los Angeles College Guild - State Prohibits Political Contributions By Payroll Deduc (Oppose) $3,258 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Los Angeles College Guild - State Temporary Taxes To Fund Education, Guaranteed Loca (Support) $13,032 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Los Angeles County Federation Of Labor, Afl-cio Issues And Initiatives Committee Pol Contribs By Payroll Ded. Contribs To Candidate (Oppose) $5,825 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members And Other School And Public Employees Richard Bloom (i) (Oppose) $57,092 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members And Other School And Public Employees Bill Berryhill (i) (Oppose) $75,547 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Orange County Coalition Of Police & Sheriffs Independent Expenditure Committee (aka Oc Cops Iec) Chris Norby (Oppose) $36,165 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Professional Engineers In California Government (pecg-pac) Susan Eggman (Support) $12,500 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Professional Engineers In California Government (pecg-pac) Richard Roth (Support) $31,000 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Professional Engineers In California Government (pecg-pac) Jose Medina (Support) $15,000 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Professional Engineers In California Government (pecg-pac) Yes On 39 (Support) $17,500 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Professional Engineers In California Government (pecg-pac) Cathleen Galgiani (Support) $40,750 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Professional Engineers In California Government (pecg-pac) Rudy Salas (Support) $15,136 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Professional Engineers In California Government (pecg-pac) Al Muratsuchi (Support) $40,090 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Professional Engineers In California Government (pecg-pac) Yes On Prop 30 (Support) $41,000 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Professional Engineers In California Government (pecg-pac) No On 31 (Support) $17,500 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Professional Engineers In California Government (pecg-pac) Ken Cooley (Support) $30,386 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Professional Engineers In California Government (pecg-pac) Richard Pan. (Support) $3,500 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Professional Engineers In California Government (pecg-pac) Jose Luis Perez (Support) $14,000 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Professional Engineers In California Government (pecg-pac) Ed Chau (Support) $29,000 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Professional Engineers In California Government (pecg-pac) Adam Gray (Support) $1,750 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Republican Party Of Orange County (state Account) Jordan Brandman (Oppose) $22,324 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Republican Party Of Orange County (state Account) Terry Anderson (Oppose) $1,140 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Republican Party Of Orange County (state Account) Marcia Rudolph (Oppose) $8,107 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Seiu - United Long Term Care Workers Local 6434 State Pac Temp Taxes To Fund Educ. Guranteed Local Pub. Sfty (Support) $17,155 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Seiu - United Long Term Care Workers Local 6434 State Pac Prohibits Pol. Contrib. By Payroll Deductions (Oppose) $17,155 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
South Bay Afl-cio Labor Council Issues Account Sponsored By South Bay Afl-cio Labor Council Education/public Safety Funding (Support) $121 10/23/2012 10/25/2012
South Bay Afl-cio Labor Council Issues Account Sponsored By South Bay Afl-cio Labor Council Education/public Safety Funding (Support) $1,585 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
South Bay Afl-cio Labor Council Issues Account Sponsored By South Bay Afl-cio Labor Council Education/public Safety Funding (Support) $44 10/21/2012 10/25/2012
South Bay Afl-cio Labor Council Issues Account Sponsored By South Bay Afl-cio Labor Council Education/public Safety Funding (Support) $149 10/22/2012 10/25/2012
Spirit Of Democracy California Rocky Chavez (Support) $8,539 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
Tc Construction Company, Inc. Prop 35 (Support) $5,000 10/25/2012 10/25/2012
United Educators Of San Francisco Candidate Pac Natalie Berg (Support) $3,125 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
United Educators Of San Francisco Candidate Pac Beverly Ho-a-yun Popek (Support) $3,417 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
United Educators Of San Francisco Candidate Pac Rafael Mandelman (Support) $3,125 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
United Educators Of San Francisco Candidate Pac Sam Rodriguez (Support) $3,417 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
United Educators Of San Francisco Candidate Pac Chris Jackson (Support) $3,125 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
United Educators Of San Francisco Candidate Pac Shamann Walton (Support) $3,417 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
United Educators Of San Francisco Candidate Pac Hanna Leung (Support) $3,125 10/24/2012 10/25/2012
United Educators Of San Francisco Candidate Pac Matt Haney (Support) $3,417 10/24/2012 10/25/2012

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
See The Big Money Behind Every California Ballot Proposition - Data Center - The Sacramento Bee
sacbee.com
Campaigns backing state ballot propositions have cumulatively raised more than $250 million in contributions - roughly $17 for every California resident likely to vote in a couple of weeks, according to data from the California Secretary of State.

Support Plunges For Prop. 30, Gov. Jerry Brown's Tax Initiative
Chris Megerian and Anthony York @
latimes.com
Only 46% of registered voters now support Prop. 30, a drop of 9 percentage points over the last month, and 42% oppose it.

Second Poll Finds Gov. Jerry Brown's Tax Plan Losing Support
latimesblogs.latimes.com
A second poll has some bad news for Gov. Jerry Brown and his tax-hike plan. The Public Policy Institute of California, in a poll released Wednesday night, said support for the ballot measure among likely voters has fallen four points...

Gov. Jerry Brown Fights For Proposition 30 Alongside Bay Area Business Leaders
Karen de Sa @
contracostatimes.com
Gov. Jerry Brown's high-stakes and increasingly frantic campaign to rescue Proposition 30 came to the Bay Area on Thursday, with a panel of high-powered business executives voicing unlikely support for the tax hike aimed at preventing severe cuts to education.

Proposition 30's Fate Hinges On Whether Jerry Brown Can Capture Unsure Liberals
Paresh Dave @
neontommy.com
The declining chances of Proposition 30 passing at California polls on Nov. 6 has brought the prospect of shorter school years at public schools and a new set of tuition increases at colleges and universities closer than ever. With just a week-and-a-half until the final ballots are cast, Governor Jerry Brown can revive positive momentum for Proposition 30 by convincing undecided voters that money from tax increases will be spent wisely.

Prop. 37 Is In Dead Heat Amid Ad Blitz
Marc Lifsher @
latimes.com
SACRAMENTO — Once riding high, Proposition 37, the statewide ballot measure to label genetically engineered foods, has seen its voter support plummet during the last month, and a new poll shows the high-stakes battle now is a dead heat.

Jerry Brown's Tax Boost Is In Trouble
Dan Walters @
sacbee.com
The governor of California may not be toast – yet – but, one might say, he's turning browner by the moment in the heat of a political campaign he hoped would be his legacy achievement.

Prop. 37 Unites Editorial Pages; Voters Divided - Total Buzz - The Orange County Register : The Orange County Register
totalbuzz.ocregister.com
Support remains strong among Democrats. An OC Political Pulse survey of 80 Democrats found 69 percent favored the measure, including 32 percent who acknowledged it was flawed but said it was better than nothing. An additional 15 percent like the idea, but were voting against it because it was poorly written.

Jeff Denham Plans To Sue Democratic Committee Over Tv Spot
Torey Van Oot @
blogs.sacbee.com
Rep. Jeff Denham says he is going to court to get a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee ad attacking his record on veterans off the air.

CSU Student Groups Sign Up 31,000 New Voters
Kelly Puente @
dailynews.com
Cal State University student groups have registered more than 31,000 new student voters across the 23-campus system in an effort to mobilize college students to vote in next month's elections.

Both Sides Use Gas Tax As A Line Of Attack In Bera-lungren Race
Torey Van Oot @
blogs.sacbee.com
This month's record-high gas prices continued to fuel attacks in the 7th Congressional District race today, as Rep. Dan Lungren again accused his rival of supporting policies that could drive up prices even more.

School bonds crowd ballot
utsandiego.com
Come Election Day, San Diego County voters will decide the fate of 11 local education bond measures — the most on a single ballot since 1996 — and two statewide tax initiatives meant to generate money for schools.

Changed minds, not young voters, boost same-sex marriage support
James Rainey @
latimes.com
Increasingly, Americans are moving toward supporting legal recognition of same-sex marriages, a trend driven not by younger people aging into the voting population, but by those already over 18 changing their minds, according to a new study.

California Voters Say They Don't Ignore Anything On The Ballot
latimesblogs.latimes.com
On politics in the Golden State

Charles Munger Drops Another $13 Million Into Ballot Measure Fights
Dan Smith @
blogs.sacbee.com
Wealthy heir Charles Munger Jr. has ponied up another $13 million to kill off Gov. Jerry Brown's Proposition 30 tax increase and to pass the anti-union Proposition 32, according to new campaign finance reports.

Ad Watch: Pro-Prop. 32 ad misleads on impact of campaign finance measure
sacbee.com
A committee advocating for Proposition 32, the Nov. 6 measure to change California's campaign finance law, recently launched a 30-second TV ad. Here's the text of the ad with analysis by The Bee Capitol Bureau's Jon Ortiz.

EUSD changes website following campaigning complaint
utsandiego.com
A San Diego man has complained to the Encinitas Union School District that its website has inappropriate campaign material supporting tax propositions on the November ballot.

State Watchdog Agency Sues Shadowy Arizona Campaign Donor
Kevin Yamamura @
blogs.sacbee.com
The state Fair Political Practices Commission sued an Arizona nonprofit this morning as it tries to determine whether the group illegally cloaked donors behind an $11 million contribution now playing a pivotal role in two state initiative contests.

President Obama Flies To Chicago To Vote Early In Person
Kathleen Hennessey @
latimes.com
CLEVELAND, Ohio – President Obama on Thursday joined many Americans not waiting until election day to cast their ballots, becoming a model for his campaign’s get-out-the-vote strategy. 

Food labeling initiative Proposition 37 sliding in the polls
Laurel Rosenhall @
blogs.sacbee.com
Proposition 37, which asks voters to require labels on genetically engineered food sold in California, is dropping in the polls as the well-funded opposition campaign pounds airwaves and mailboxes with arguments against the measure.

Obama And Romney On Environmental Issues: A Grand Canyon Of Difference
Science @
mercurynews.com
Environment has played a small role in 2012 presidential campaign, behind jobs, economy and health care, but in their views and past actions lies a road map for how President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney would govern on everything from public lands to climate change.

CalPERS Objects To Bankruptcy Filing By San Bernardino, Which Owes Pension Fund Millions - Business - The Sacramento Bee
sacbee.com
San Bernardino has filed for bankruptcy protection.

Yes On Proposition 39 - Close The Loophole
cleanenergyjobsact.com
Prop 39 closes a corporate tax loophole that costs Californians $1 billion each year. At the end of the 2009 state budget negotiations, in a last-minute, middle-of-the-night deal, lobbyists and legislators created a tax loophole that rewards companies for creating jobs outside of California. Prop 39 closes this loophole, bringing back much needed revenue to reduce the budget deficit, help fund our schools, and invest in clean energy and energy efficiency projects.

Dan Walters: Jerry Brown's tax boost is in trouble
sacbee.com
TThe governor of California may not be toast – yet – but, one might say, he's turning browner by the moment in the heat of a political campaign he hoped would be his legacy achievement.