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THE NOONER for October 9, 2012

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SIREN: Gallup switches to likely voters and finds Obama down 2 with Romney at 49% (registered has Obama +3). (and the state polls are also looking worse for POTUS)

NO MINCING WORDS: Andrew Sullivan writes:

"The Pew poll is devastating, just devastating. Before the debate, Obama had a 51 - 43 lead; now, Romney has a 49 - 45 lead. That's a simply unprecedented reversal for a candidate in October. Before Obama had leads on every policy issue and personal characteristic; now Romney leads in almost all of them. Obama's performance gave Romney a 12 point swing! I repeat: a 12 point swing.

Seriously: has that kind of swing ever happened this late in a campaign? Has any candidate lost 18 points among women voters in one night ever? And we are told that when Obama left the stage that night, he was feeling good. That's terrifying. On every single issue, Obama has instantly plummeted into near-oblivion. . ."

[h/t Mike Allen @ Politico]

DEMOCRATS: Step away from the cliff. You have some good news.

SURGE: GOP Getting Boost for House Races [Alex Isenstadt @ Politico] (includes CD07 Denham defense and CD24 Capps offense)

MUTUALLY ASSURED DESTRUCTION: In the education community, there is a growing sense that the fight between the Prop 30 and Prop 38 camps will lead to $5.3 billion in trigger cuts to K-12 and community colleges in January as both measures fail. Munger's new ad characterizes politicians as stealing from schools under Prop. 30.

SLOW GOING: "CA unemployment forecast: 2012 10.7%, 2013 9.8%, 2014 8.5%" [Rose Institute]

CD30: In Calif., 2 Democrats, 2 Incumbents, 1 race [NPR]

SD04: Dan Logue drops out, citing health reasons [Torey Van Oot @ SacBee] (Logue is still running in the safe AD03, and his name stays on the SD04 ballot.)

$$$: CSEA Lobbyist Dave Low has been moonlighting for Blue Shield [Chad Terhune @ LAT]

FIXED: Rigged Libor Hits States-Localities With $6 Billion [Bloomberg]

PLASTICS! The funding for the California Black Political Action Committee for Cheryl Brown against Joe Baca, Jr. in AD47 is largely provided by Hilex Poly, a South Carolina company that recycles plastic bags.


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No new polls since Sunday's Prop. 36 poll. The tracking of the Around The Capitol polling averages is available at

Proposition 30: Temporary Taxes to Fund Education. Guaranteed Local Public Safety Funding. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.

Yes: 53.5% (-0.3%)
No: 37.2%
Undecided: 9.0%

Proposition 31: State Budget. State and Local Government. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.
Yes: 30.4% (+4.7%)
No: 37.9%%
Undecided: 31.5%

Proposition 32: Prohibits Political Contributions by Payroll Deduction. Prohibitions on Contributions to Candidates. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 43.2% (-0.8%)
No: 43.0%
Undecided: 13.6%

Proposition 33: Changes Law to Allow Auto Insurance Companies to Set Prices Based on a Driver's History of Insurance Coverage. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 55.8% (+0.4%)
No: 32.8%
Undecided: 11.4%

Proposition 34: Death Penalty Repeal. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 44.9% (-1.0%)
No: 43.5%
Undecided: 11.6%

Proposition 35: Human Trafficking. Penalties. Sex Offender Registration. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 82.2% (-2%)
No: 10.5%
Undecided: 7.3%

Proposition 36: Three Strikes Law. Sentencing for Repeat Felony Offenders. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 71.9% (-4.9%)
No: 17.1%
Undecided: 11.1%

Proposition 37: Genetically Engineered Foods. Mandatory Labeling. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 61.4% (+2.7%)%
No: 27.8%
Undecided: 10.8%

Proposition 38: Tax for Education and Early Childhood Programs. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 42.4% (-0.9%)
No: 45.4%
Undecided: 12.4%

Proposition 39: Tax Treatment for Multistate Businesses. Clean Energy and Energy Efficiency Funding. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 54.7% (+3.6%)
No: 30.2%
Undecided: 15.2%

Proposition 40: Redistricting. State Senate Districts. Referendum.
Yes: 44.2% (+0.3%)
No: 2


Federal Independent Expenditure Reports
Independent SpenderCandidatePurposeAmountDate
Spirit of Democracy America Paul Cook (Support) Professional Services $12,500.00 10/06/12
Spirit of Democracy America Paul Cook (Support) Campaign Literature and Mailings $27,815.55 10/06/12
Spirit of Democracy America Paul Cook (Support) Campaign Consultants $2,925.00 10/06/12
Spirit of Democracy America Paul Cook (Support) Campaign Consultants $2,925.00 10/06/12
Spirit of Democracy America Paul Cook (Support) Polling and Survey Research $19,750.00 10/06/12
America Shining Ed Royce (Oppose) Direct Mail Design $200.00 10/05/12
America Shining Ed Royce (Oppose) Direct Mail & Postage $5,034.84 10/05/12
House Majority PAC Abel Maldonado (Oppose) Media Production Costs $11,362.20 10/06/12
House Majority PAC Abel Maldonado (Oppose) Television Advertising $76,633.80 10/06/12
Blue America PAC Lee Rogers (Support) Radio Advertising $6,574.00 10/08/12
Blue America PAC Lee Rogers (Support) Radio Advertising $6,534.00 10/08/12
The American Congress of OB-GYNs PAC Ricky Gill (Oppose Support) Radio Ads $20,000.00 09/27/12


State Independent Expenditure Reports
Committee Candidate (Support/Oppose) Amount Received Date Report Date
California Black Political Action Committee Shirley Weber (Support) $3,500 10/04/2012 10/09/2012
California Black Political Action Committee Chris Holden (Support) $3,500 10/04/2012 10/09/2012
Committee For The Right To Know: Vote Yes On 37!!!, The  Proposition 37 (Support) $9,848 10/09/2012 10/09/2012
California Black Political Action Committee Cheryl Brown (Support) $6,598 10/04/2012 10/08/2012
Citizens For California Reform Cathleen Galgiani (Oppose) $114,965 10/08/2012 10/08/2012
Los Angeles County Federation Of Labor, Afl-cio Issues And Initiatives Committee Pol Contribs By Payroll Ded. Contribs To Candidate (Oppose) $2,000 10/07/2012 10/08/2012
California's Top-two Voting System Changes Campaigns, But Will It Alter Governance? - Elections - The Sacramento Bee
Bee file. The key Sacramento-area contest featuring same-party candidates pits Republican Assemblywoman Beth Gaines, left, against Andy Pugno in the 6th Assembly District, based in Placer County.

Reality Check: Prop 30 Ads Offer Healthy Dose Of Political Spin
John Myers @
There are two almost universally popular things in California politics: schools, and proposals to keep a leash on Sacramento lawmakers. That probably explains the approach by supporters of Proposition 30, one of two temporary tax increase initiatives on the November 6 ballot. And yet, the initiative is not all about schools... nor does it truly rein in politicians.

How Molly Munger Could Kill School Finance
According to all the public polls, Gov. Jerry Brown’s measure to boost funding for schools, Proposition 30, has a chance of passing while Molly Munger’s school-finance initiative, Proposition 38, has no chance. What Munger can do, however, is allow herself to be persuaded by her media advisers – who would stand to profit handsomely – that if she just spends more of her millions on TV “comparing” her measure to Brown’s (essentially going negative on Prop. 30), that her initiative has a chance of passing.

Yes On 30 Campaign Afraid Of Comparisons :: Fox&hounds
The Yes on Prop 30 campaign sent a letter to Molly Munger, author of Proposition 38, warning her that her comments on a television interview over the weekend declaring her intent to compare her initiative with Prop 30 would undermine her stated goal of improving education.

Dan Logue Drops Out Of 4th Senate District Special Election
Torey Van Oot @
With four weeks to go until Election Day, Assemblyman Dan Logue is abandoning his bid for an open state Senate seat because of health issues.

Bill Clinton To Stump In Davis For House Candidates
By Josh Richman Monday, October 8th, 2012 at 2:19 pm in 2012 Congressional Election, Dan Lungren, Jeff Denham, Jerry McNerney, John Garamendi, U.S. House.

Presidential campaigns target new citizen voters
GARANCE BURKE, Associated Press @
From Florida to Virginia, Massachusetts to California, candidates and political parties seeking to squeeze every vote from a divided electorate are targeting America's newest citizens. It's a relatively small bloc but one that can be substantial enough to make a difference in razor-close presidential swing states and competitive congressional races.

Mercury Insurance Chairman Dumps Another $8 Million Into Prop. 33
Marc Lifsher @
SACRAMENTO -- Insurance billionaire George Joseph has poured another $8 million into his self-funded campaign to pass Proposition 33, a change in California insurance law he's been trying to get for a dozen years.

UC Officials Release Thousands Of Documents Related To Davis Pepper Spraying Incident - Our Region - The Sacramento Bee
UC Davis Police Lt. John Pike uses pepper spray to move protesters from the school's quad last November. The incident was captured on video that went viral online and brought national attention to the case.

Ohio secretary of state asks Supreme Court to block early voting
WASHINGTON — Ohio’s secretary of state is asking the U.S. Supreme Court to block a pair of rulings that will open the polls for all voters on the three days prior to the November 6 election, a time when 105,000 Ohioans cast ballots four years ago.

Viewpoints: Prop. 31 would reform California in a way lawmakers won't
We appreciate The Bee's editorial of Sept. 10 supporting the Legislature as the venue for solving California's challenges, but the fact remains that the Legislature is either deadlocked on governance reforms or wedded to the status quo. In order for there to be true, successful budget reform, it will have to come from the people and the passage of Proposition 31.

Campaigns For Prop 30, Prop 38 Trade Barbs
John Myers @
If there was truly ever a truce between November's two major tax increase campaigns, it seems to now officially be over... with election day less than a month away.

Gas Prices Could Effect Tax Initiatives -- Like Fires Of 1993 Did :: Fox&hounds
As early voting begins, Californians are dealing with a new cost crisis as gasoline prices explode upward all over the state. The five-dollar a gallon figure was crossed at a number of gas stations at the end of last week while other stations closed down for lack of supply.

California's Politicians Pay Tribute To Mervyn Dymally
Jean Merl and Patrick McGreevy @
A chorus of California politicians described their admiration for former lieutenant governor and lawmaker Mervyn Dymally, who died Sunday at 86.

Beth Gaines Receives New Boost From Charles Munger Jr. Group
Jim Sanders @
Assemblywoman Beth Gaines once again is getting a campaign boost from a group funded largely by wealthy Stanford physicist Charles T. Munger Jr.

Rift Widens Between Backers Of Ed Initiatives 30 And 38
John Fensterwald and Kathryn Baron @
All pretense of goodwill is gone between backers of the two competing education tax measures on November’s ballot.

Billionaire insurance exec gives another $8M to help pass Proposition 33
Billionaire insurance executive George Joseph has donated another $8 million to his November ballot initiative

Viewpoints: Prop. 31 will only worsen California's governance mess
Proposition 31 is being sold as a way to improve our budget and government processes and create more transparency. While these are laudable and important goals, Proposition 31 actually does the opposite – with unintended but potentially devastating consequences for the services that all Californians rely on.

Nutrition Group Says Prop. 37 Foes Are Mischaracterizing Its Position
Laurel Rosenhall @

Proposition 30 Campaign Takes Aim At Molly And Charles Munger [updated]
On politics in the Golden State

Obama Pursues Base, Bucks In California
Carla Marinucci, Drew Joseph and Joe Garofoli @
Obama's 12th presidential visit to San Francisco included a trio of fundraisers that began with a round table for 25 deep-pocketed donors at the InterContinental Hotel, where tickets cost $40,000 each.

Feinstein Wants Investigation Of California Gas Prices
Local @
Sen. Dianne Feinstein has called for a federal investigation into gas prices in California because she doesnt think they are related to supply and demand.

California Politicians Pressing For Gas-price Relief And Probe Into Possible Market Manipulation
Mark Glover and Kevin Yamamura @
With gas prices hovering near $5 a gallon in California, the state's politicians are simultaneously pressing for relief and questioning whether the oil industry is manipulating the market.