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THE NOONER for September 11, 2012

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TIDAL WATERS

RASMUSSEN: Dems tick up to 44%-42% in generic congressional tracker, taking the lead for the first time since January. The GOP-leaning polling firm also found Obama with a significant convention bounce.

This is clearly the bounce period following the Democratic convention, and my Republican friends should step away from the ledge. However, the Democrats' orchestration far exceeded the Republicans' show in Tampa and the only question is how long the bounce will last. At this point, Barack Obama is a strong favorite to win reelection, but it's unclear whether there will be a partisan tide come November 6.

In California, I'm watching eleven congressional races. Barring gaffes, they will mostly be determined by the election day tide. Here's how I rank them:

CATEGORY ONE - CALM WATERS

  • CD07 - Ami Bera (D) v. Dan Lungren (R)
  • CD26 - Julia Brownley (D) v. Tony Strickland (R)
  • CD41 - Mark Takano (D) v. John Tavaglione (R)
  • CD52 - Brian Bilbray (R) v. Scott Peters (D)

CATEGORY TWO - REP RIPTIDE

  • CD03 - John Garamendi (D) v. Kim Vann (R)
  • CD24 - Lois Capps (D) v. Abel Maldonado (R)
  • CD47 - Gary DeLong (R) v. Alan Lowenthal (D)

CATEGORY THREE - DEM RIPTIDE

  • CD10 - Jeff Denham (R) v. Jose Hernandez (D)
  • CD21 - John Hernandez (D) v. David Valadao (R)
  • CD36 - Mary Bono Mack (R) v. Raul Ruiz (D)
  • CD39 - Jay Chen (D) v. Ed Royce (R)

The beach is calling, so I won't dive in to Assembly and Senate races, but in many cases, you could find a simlar playing field based on geography. For example, I would put a wager down that the results in the Miller v. Roth SD31 race mirror those of CD41's Takano v. Tavaglione.

I currently project that we'll be in calm waters on November 6. Voters are anxious, but don't know what they want. We want economic recovery, but neither party has offered a strong case for why they are the better option. This is neither a "Hope and Change" nor a "Contract with America" year, and it's too late for it to gain a theme. Races listed above will come down to the finish line, with the "riptide" districts becoming a playfield only if something significant happens in the district or country in the next 56 days.

AD06: Surprising, uh, nobody, Andy Pugno changes course and acknowledges that he's in it to win it against Beth Gaines. [Torey Van Oot @ SacBee]

MUST READS: Admittedly, most of the people around me on the beach in Cancun are reading Fifty Shades. However, my iPad today is honed in on The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns by Sasha Issenberg. Politico calls the book the "Moneyball for politics," and it is indeed a must read for professionals and home gamers alike. Also out today is The Price of Politics by Bob Woodward. Excuse me, can I get another week on the beach?

 

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I’m Greg Diamond, Democratic opponent of State Senator Bob Huff in SD-29. (See Monday’s ad.)

Politicians should stand against bigotry – but Bob Huff has repeatedly embraced it.

Huff proposed outrageous bills to eliminate schools’ civil rights protections for sexual orientation and hobble school programs discussing LGBT issues.

Despite increasingly common stories of school bullying and teenage suicides, Huff has sided with oppression.

Donate to help me expose Huff’s bigoted record. We’ve had enough of Bob Huff!

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TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
School Libraries Hit Hard By Budget Cuts
Neal J. Riley @
sfgate.com
The kids are back, but the media center at one of California's largest high schools is quiet, even for a library. That's because the 4,000 students at James Logan High School in Union City are starting the school year without access to the aisles of books and computers sitting in a darkened room, unused.

Jarvis Group's New Ad Calls Jerry Brown's Tax Bid 'snake Oil'
David Siders @
blogs.sacbee.com
The Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association is airing a new radio ad calling Gov. Jerry Brown's ballot initiative to raise taxes "snake oil," arguing Proposition 30 would provide no new funding for schools.

Newsom Wants U.S. Attorney's Office Review Of Mortgage Industry's And Federal Agency's Actions
Andrew Edwards @
dailynews.com
Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom on Monday asked for a federal investigation of Wall Street figures he accused of colluding "to restrain trade and to redline communities" over opposition to a controversial proposal to use eminent domain to prevent foreclosures in San Bernardino County.

Pugno Changes Course, Vows To Fight Gaines For Assembly Seat
Torey Van Oot @
blogs.sacbee.com
The race is officially on in the 6th Assembly District. Republican Assembly candidate Andrew Pugno announced today that he plans to move forward with his bid to unseat Assemblywoman Beth Gaines, R-Rocklin, on the Nov. 6 ballot, despite an earlier pledge to stop campaigning if another Republican came in first in the June primary.

Senate Dem Leader Mocks Ryan On Marathon Time Math
mercurynews.com
WASHINGTON—The Senate Democratic leader mocked Republican Paul Ryan for misstating his marathon time, saying the vice presidential candidates math doesnt add up on running or budgets.

Exclusive: California Gov. Jerry Brown Tells Critics 'we've Made A Helluva Lot Of Progress'
contracostatimes.com
In an exclusive interview, the governor points to pension reform, workers compensation reform and other legislative victories as proof of his recent successes to rid California of its image of a failed state.

Mirkarimi Wants Hearing After Election - Sfgate
sfgate.com
Suspended Sheriff Ross Mirkarimi on Monday asked the Ethics Commission for a delay in his official misconduct case until after the November election, saying that having the Board of Supervisors decide his fate while five are up for re-election would deprive him of a fair hearing. "The charter establishes a clear process for official misconduct proceedings, and there is simply no provision to delay that process until the political climate is supposedly more favorable to one side or the other," city attorney spokesman Matt Dorsey said. The commission is expected to take up the request Tuesday when it also is slated to finalize its written findings in the matter after voting 4-1 Aug. 16 to find Mirkarimi had committed official misconduct when he grabbed his wife's arm, bruising it, during a Dec. 31 argument and later pleaded guilty to misdemeanor false imprisonment in the matter. A metered response: A new parking meter fan club has sprouted in San Francisco to counter efforts by a grassroots campaign to slow or stop the city's plans to expand parking meter locations and hours. In addition to promoting the city's Transit First policy, adding more meters and increasing their hours of operation is expected to generate more revenue for the chronically cash-strapped agency, which also oversees transit, taxi, traffic control, and bike and pedestrian programs.

Garamendi pulls TV ad falsely attacking Vann over $4,000 chair
Torey Van Oot @
blogs.sacbee.com
Democratic Rep. John Garamendi's campaign has removed one of its television ads attacking Republican opponent Kim Vann because it made false claims.

Newest Ucd Legal Clinic Sets Sights On Supreme Court Cases - Health And Medicine - The Sacramento Bee
sacbee.com
Professor Aimee Feinberg discusses legal briefs in the California Supreme Court clinic at UC Davis Law School. The former litigator and federal court clerk said, "It's an incredible opportunity to both do and teach what I love," meaning appellate work.

State Education Report Calls For Sweeping Reforms In Teacher Evaluation - La Daily News
dailynews.com
LONG BEACH - The California Department of Education on Monday released a comprehensive new report calling for sweeping reforms in the way teachers are recruited, trained, mentored and evaluated.

D.a. Seeks Funds To Investigate Public Officials In O.c.
Rick Rojas @
latimesblogs.latimes.com
The Orange County Board of Supervisors will vote Tuesday on the creation of a public integrity unit that would be directed to pursue such cases as illegal or inappropriate use of public funds, bribery, election and campaign violations, conflict of interest and malfeasance in office, according to the proposal.

USD wins $5M for climate change education
utsandiego.com
A climate education initiative based at the University of San Diego has won a five-year National Science Foundation grant of nearly $5 million, the school announced Tuesday.

Online Giant Amazon To Start Collecting California Sales Tax - Business - The Sacramento Bee
sacbee.com
Click to view the Large Graphic

Californians Face Competing Tax Increase Propositions
nytimes.com
Ian Lovett contributed reporting.

Feds Say AIG Stock Sale Locks In Minimum $12.4-billion Profit
Jim Puzzanghera @
latimes.com
WASHINGTON -- The government's sale of about $18 billion shares of stock in rescued insurance giant American International Group locks in a minimum $12.4-billion profit for taxpayers on one of the most controversial bailouts of the financial crisis, the Treasury Department said late Monday.

California Border Patrol Immigrant Apprehensions Fall To New Low - Data Center - The Sacramento Bee
sacbee.com
With the economy still down, sneaking across the California border just isn't as tempting as it once was for illegal immigrants.

Nadia Lockyer’s Pretrial For Drugs Postponed - Total Buzz - The Orange County Register : The Orange County Register
totalbuzz.ocregister.com
Lockyer, who is also a former Santa Ana school board member, appeared at the hearing with her attorney and told reporters she is happy to be receiving help for her drug addiction.

Following Drug Arrest, Nadia Lockyer Wins Right To Visit Son
Nicole Santa Cruz @
latimesblogs.latimes.com
Nadia Lockyer, the former Bay Area supervisor and estranged wife of California's state treasurer, will be allowed to visit her 9-year-old following her drug arrest in Orange County last month. An Orange County Superior Court judge granted Lockyer visitation rights...

Three San Jose City Council members push city to pursue tax cheats
Tracy Seipel @
mercurynews.com
SAN JOSE -- In an effort to crackdown on San Jose businesses -- particularly medical marijuana shops -- that skirt city tax laws, three council members are proposing an ordinance that would shut them down for not paying local taxes.

California Economy Ranked 9th Largest In World - Business - The Sacramento Bee
sacbee.com
California's economy is the world's ninth-largest.

Obama And Romney: Where They Stand On The Issues
mercurynews.com
WASHINGTON—A look at where Democratic President Barack Obama and Republican presidential rival Mitt Romney stand on a selection of issues: ABORTION and BIRTH CONTROL: Obama: Supports abortion rights.

Builder Groups Dismayed That Sacramento Transit Work Lacks Local Contracts - Our Region - The Sacramento Bee
sacbee.com
The city tonight is expected to award a $3.2 million contract to an Oregon firm for design work on the old train depot.

Obama And Romney Close In Poll Among Likely Voters
washingtonpost.com
Last week’s Democratic National Convention helped President Obama improve his standing against Republican Mitt Romney, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, but did little to reduce voter concern about his handling of the economy.