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THE NOONER for August 14, 2012

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THE DOUBLE X FACTOR

I have written a few times on the prospects of women candidates to the state Legislature. There was a moment last year at which it appeared that there could be a significant reduction--when there were discussions of serious intra-party challenges to three Democratic women senators, Loni Hancock (SD09), Carol Liu (SD25), and Fran Pavley (SD27).

Some very tense discussions in legislative caucuses and elsewhere quelled each of those attempts. So, where are we?

There are currently 21 women in the Assembly--including 6 Republicans and 15 Democrats. In the Senate, there are 12 women, consisting of 2 Republicans and 10 Democrats.

In the Assembly, four seats currently held by women will switch to men--AD08 (Huber), AD19 (Ma), AD23 (Halderman), and AD50 AD66 (Butler). There are two more seats that are 50/50 as to whether a woman will continue to represent--AD20 (Hayashi --> Ong v. Quirk) and AD47 (Carter --> Baca, Jr. v. Brown). Thus, women will lose 4-6 seats that are currently held, with all but one being Democrats.

There are four seats currently held by men where pickups will or might happen. AD58 (C. Calderon --> Garcia) and AD75 (Jeffries --> Waldron) will be picked up by women, and AD67 and AD76 are competitive with a woman running.

In the upper house, three seats currently held by women will switch to men: SD15 (Alquist --> Beall v. Coto), SD21 (Runner --> Knight), and SD39 (Kehoe --> Block v. Plescia). There are two possible pickups in SD13 (Simitian --> Lieber v. Hill) and SD27 (Strickland --> Pavley v. Zink). (Pavley will likely be succeeded in her "old" seat by Hannah-Beth Jackson.)

In the end, there will likely be 2-3 fewer women in the Legislature, but it won't be as bad as it briefly appeared last year.

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CPR FOR THE CRP: Torey Van Oot has the details on the rebuke to California Republican Party chairman Tom Del Beccarro that occured in a board meeting after delegates hit the bar on Sunday. Conservative blogger Aaron Park also has a take on the move.

Van Oot writes: 

The actions, outlined in a draft resolution provided to The Bee, included creating a new 2012 campaign fund that will be controlled by the vice chairman and the treasurer. The board also replaced all members of the Strategic Planning Committee, which it assigned to oversee "Victory 2012 activities to support the election of Republican candidates," including voter turnout and outreach programs and media relations. The board also created new efforts to plan for the party's 2013 convention and develop a plan for renovating the Burbank offices.

UNDER THE DOME: Speaker John Perez succeeded yesterday passing the tax piece of his Middle Class Scholarship program, AB 1500. The bill changes the corporate tax choice included in the 2008 budget deal to a "single sales factor," thus shifting a larger corporate tax burden to companies that sell products in California but have few employees, facilities and equipment in the state.

Joining all 52 Democrats were Republican Brian Nestande and Independent Nathan Fletcher. Democrat Tony Mendoza held out, arguing that the tax revenue be used to restore cuts already made rather than create a new program, offered a "courtesy vote."

The bill now moves to the Senate, where two Republican votes are needed if all the Democrats are on board. However, there are plenty of questions of whether Ron Calderon and Lou Correa are on board.

If the bill passes and is signed by the governor, attention turns to Proposition 39. The initiative, which similarly changes the corporate tax but instead uses the funds for schools and clean energy for four years and then turns it over to the general fund, would overwrite AB 1500. There are conflicting reports as to whether proponent Tom Steyer will drop Proposition 39 if AB 1500 passes.

The governor hasn't weighed in either, and some observers question whether he would be willing to sign a "billion-dollar tax increase" two months before his tax measure is on the ballot.

MUST READ: When is a campaign contribution a bribe? [Robert Barnes @ WaPo]

ACT FIRST, APOLOGIZE LATER: Darrell Steinberg apologized yesterday for turning off the cameras to a hearing reviewing several measures on the November ballot. [Steven Harmon @ Merc News]

NOTHING TO SEE HERE: Sales tax revenue came in $295 million (33.5%) below projections in July.

$$$: SEIU added $2.5 million against Prop. 32 yesterday.

YEA! Burlingame-based Virgin America began nonstop service today from SFO->DCA (Reagan National). 

TIMING!: As Richmond residents line up for health claims and investigators try to figure out how to enter the area of the August 6 fire, SD27 candidate Todd Zink reports $3,900 from Chevron.

ADVICE: If you're in Sacramento today, don't breathe.

ANOTHER: Isleton considers dissolving as a city [Sam Stanton @ SacBee] -- "But one councilman said Monday that he finds the notion odious. "That's like moving back in with your mother," said Robert Jankovitz. "We've got to find a way to pay our bills and stay a city."

WHAT CAN I SAY? Brilliant.

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Jerry Brown Paints Initiative Campaign As Taxes Vs. Schools
latimesblogs.latimes.com
Gov. Jerry Brown has long sought to frame Proposition 30 as a choice between lower taxes and funding for schools. To illustrate the point, Brown will kick off his campaign for the initiative Wednesday in Sacramento at -- where else?...

Senate Leader Steinberg Issues Mea Culpa Over Cancelling Telecast Of Hearings On Ballot Measure
Steven Harmon @
mercurynews.com
Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg, D-Sacramento, issued a mea culpa to reporters Monday, saying he "messed up" last week when he cancelled the cable television broadcast of a hearing on the four ballot measures on taxes and the budget.

Union chips in $2.5 million to fight Proposition 32
Jon Ortiz @
blogs.sacbee.com
Service Employees International Union has put another $2.5 million into defeating Proposition 32, a November ballot measure that would alter how political campaigns are financed in California.

Romney, GOP Bash California
Carla Marinucci @
sfgate.com
California is the Golden State, home to surfing, Hollywood and Silicon Valley, but it appears likely to become something else entirely for GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney and his running mate, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan: a political punching bag.

State Senate leader apologizes for TV blackout
JUDY LIN, Associated Press @
utsandiego.com
Calling it a mistake, the leader of the state Senate apologized Monday for his office's last-minute decision not to televise a legislative hearing that included testimony about Gov. Jerry Brown's tax initiative on the November ballot.

Sneakiness Revs Up In California Legislature
Dan Walters @
sacbee.com
Once upon a time, the favored method of sneaking something through the Legislature was the so-called "conference committee."

Judge Orders Changes To Prop. 32 Language
latimesblogs.latimes.com
A Sacramento County Superior Court judge on Monday ordered the secretary of state to change language on the November ballot describing Proposition 32, the initiative that promises to eliminate special-interest money in politics. According to the new ballot label, the...

Fletcher’s vote pushes tax hike off Assembly floor
utsandiego.com
San Diego Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher on Monday provided a crucial vote to keep alive controversial legislation that aims to cut college costs for middle-class Californians by raising taxes on out-of-state corporations.

California Scrambles To Pay Its Bills With More Borrowing
Chris Megarian @
latimesblogs.latimes.com
Embedded in a Monday report from the California controller is a statistic showing just how much the state is straining to pay its bills before November's vote on higher taxes. Controller John Chiang, who manages the state's cash flow, finished...

Jerry Brown Launches Website To Rebut Climate Change Skeptics
David Siders @
blogs.sacbee.com
Gov. Jerry Brown said today that "humanity is getting dangerously close to the point of no return" on climate change, and he launched a website criticizing conservatives who dispute its significance.

Cities Refuse To Hand Over Redevelopment Money
latimesblogs.latimes.com
On politics in the Golden State

Steinberg apologizes for blackout of ballot measure hearing
Dan Walters @
blogs.sacbee.com
Darrell Steinberg, the president pro tem of the state Senate, apologized to the public and press Monday for cutting off television access to a Senate hearing on four ballot measures last week.

Harris Takes A Pass On Death Penalty Initiative
Wyatt Buchanan, Michael Collier, Richard Dunham, Bob Egelko, Joe Garofoli, Marisa Lagos, Carolyn Lochhead, Carla Marinucci, @
blog.sfgate.com
Harris takes a pass on death penalty initiative

Jerry Brown Considers Limits On Agencies Blocking Cellphone Service
latimesblogs.latimes.com
Gov. Jerry Brown to consider protecting cell phone use from agency shut downs

Paul Ryan’s Plan For Medicare | State Of Health Blog From Kqed News
blogs.kqed.org
The proposals were never enacted because of opposition from the Democratic-controlled Senate and President Barack Obama.

Mitt Romney’s Constitutional Amendment Would Bar Paul Ryan From The Presidency
Ezra Klein @
washingtonpost.com
Three years ago, Mitt Romney proposed a constitutional amendment that would say “the president has to spend three years working in business before he becomes president of the United States. Then he or she would understand that the policies they are putting into place have to encourage small business to grow.”

Controller Says Revenue Nearly $500 Million Below Estimates For First Month Of New Fiscal Year « California's Capitol
Greg Lucas @
californiascapitol.com
Personal income taxes in the month of July rose $12 million above projections, while sales taxes were down $295 million, more than one-third less than projected. Corporate taxes were up for the month, coming in $57.1 million — 27.4 percent — above projections.

Assembly passes corporate tax hike
Jim Sanders @
sacbee.com
Hotly contested legislation to raise a billion dollars annually for college scholarships by altering the tax formula for out-of-state corporations narrowly passed the Assembly on Monday.

Bill banning government agencies from cellphone disruption heads to Gov. Jerry Brown
mercurynews.com
Legislation that would ban government agencies from disrupting cellphone service without a court order is heading to Gov. Jerry Brown.