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THE NOONER for June 29, 2012 I took a vacation day yesterday to sit through the American Association of Political Consultants conference in Sacramento. It was great to see many Nooner subscribers and old friends, and to pick a lot of great minds. If you're not in the mood to get in the weeds on November turnout, feel free to read our sponsor message from Kronick Moskovitz and catch up on the other news. Anyway, the biggest surprise in June was not on any individual race, but rather on the abysmally low turnout. While counties have until next week to finalize their election reports and some (Placer and Sonoma) have not reported since election night, the total number of voters will likely be around 5.3 million. This is just about 31% of the electorate. You'd actually have to go back to 1956 to find a presidential primary when a fewer voters participated, and there were only 6.4 million registered voters compared to the 17.1 mllion today. Most consultants believe that participation was particularly low among Latino and No Party Preference (DTS) voters. The irony is that proponents of the top-two primary argued that the new system would inspire more independent voters, not fewer. Turnout will improve in November, but by how much? Since 1980, voter participation in California presidential primaries has averaged from 41.9% (1996) to 63.3% (1980). In presidential general elections, participation has ranged from 65.5% (1996) to 79.4% (2008). During these eight elections, there was an average increase of 23.3% from the primary to the general, with a low differential of 13.9% (1980) and a high of 31.7% (2004). Given this, I would predict that turnout will range between an increase of the eight-cycle average of 23.3% and the eight-cycle high of 31.7%, or turnout of 54%-62%. Turnout will be driven to a higher range of the eight-cycle differential by Paycheck Protection/Deception and taxes. However, if this is correct, that would still be a 30-year low for a presidential general election. Don't misread June's low turnout as only the consequence of a non-contested presidential primary. Voters are disaffected and have less trust in government than at any time since 1994. And, because of the nation's debt caused by profligate spending (including tax reductions) of both parties since 2001 combined with lagging tax receipts from a weak economy, this is not a time for bold new programs that will inspire turnout. Everyone who is serious about federal policy and finance knows a Bowles-Simpson solution is necessary, but no politician can embrace it without a bipartisan grand bargain. Registration will likely increase to 75% of eligible voters by November, as labor and students focus on registration drives. Applying the above turnout projections, that means that 9.6-11 milion out of an estimated 17.8 million voters will turn out. In comparison, this would be between 2.7-4 million fewer voters than turned out in 2008. Within this range, and whether it will be exceeded, largely depends on Latino voters. While full analysis won't be available for another month or so, it is surmised that Latino turnout was very low. If you look at the five Assembly districts with the largest Latino citizen voting age population (AD51, AD63, AD57, AD58, AD69), each one of them had an open contested seat. Actually, these were all some of the hottest Democratic primaries. That said, turnout averaged only 13.7% (149,987 out of 1,089,869 voters) in these districts. Latinos will vote overwhelmingly for Obama and the Democratic ticket. However, the outcome of about eleven state and congressional districts will turn on Latino voter turnout. In these districts, the Democratric Party needs to convince Latinos who stayed home on June 5 to turn out and cast ballots in favor of Obama and the rest of the ticket. I don't mean to demean Latino voters into being simple and only willing to turn out for the presidential. That said, if a voter didn't turn out in a hotly contested Assembly primary with tons of mail and plenty of Latino candidates, you have to look for something different. With Obama able to spike the football on the Arizona SCOTUS ruling and with the Dream Act move, there's finally something that might get voters who otherwise not turn out to show up at the pools. Advanced Public Sector Labor Relations: From Collective Bargaining to Arbitration - What Public Sector Employers Need to Know Kronick Moskovitz's 2012 Labor Relations seminar will be held on July 12 at the Courtyard Hotel Sacramento Cal Expo. Join our Labor & Employment and Education law attorneys for this half-day seminar focusing on topics pertinent to all public employers, including the latest legal developments and court decisions governing public sector labor relations in California. Full details & registration bit.ly/OJDiWm reserve this space | subscribe to the ad-free version for $2.99/month Molly Munger has filed a lawsuit challenging AB 1499, which elevated the governor's tax ballot measure to the top of the November ballot, even though it was among the last to qualify. The suit argues that the AB 1499, which passed as a trailer bill to the budget with a simple majority, can not be considered a valid budget-related bill, even with the trivial $1,000 appropriated. Munger also alleges that counties abused their discretion by submitting random samples out of order of submission, thus favoring the governor's measure. Munger's backers were particularly annoyed with the governor's veto yesterday of $49.9 million in preschool and child development funds, as were college students, who say Cal Grants cut 5% to save $22.6 million. Both were made to bouy the state's reserve. JUST ASKIN': Do headlines proclaiming that state parks will stay open because of private financial support hurt the tax measure? BE WARNED: Tomorrow is one of those end-of-quarter days for state and federal fundraising. Expect Barack Obama to say "Hey," "Yo!" and "Do you still love me?" in your e-mail box all day long... TIMING IS EVERYTHING: NBC found the perfect day to throw Ann Curry under the bus for the Today show's poor ratings. In a tearful goodbye with co-host Matt Lauer sitting awkwardly by, she made it clear that this was not her decision and that she was in no way happy with the network. WHAT'S MY NAME?: Snoop Dogg caught bringing pot and cash into Norway. FIVE YEARS AGO: The iPhone premiered five years ago. I remember sitting in Richie Ross' office and he walked in with the most magical phone ever. Yesterday, sitting in AAPC, so many damn people had the pretty phone that you couldn't do a damn thing with it. TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM Molly Munger Challenges Ballot Placement For Gov. Jerry Brown's Tax Initiative Kevin Yamamura @ sacbee.com ![]() Molly Munger, Anti-tax Groups Considering Lawsuits On Ballot Bill Kevin Yamamura @ blogs.sacbee.com ![]() Calif. Voters Face Fall Ballot Crowded With Issues - Sfgate sfgate.com ![]() With Healthcare Ruling In, Is An Insurance Rate-hike Battle Next? Ricardo Lopez and Chad Terhune @ latimes.com ![]() Dan Logue Pushes Initiative After High Court's Health Care Ruling Jim Sanders @ blogs.sacbee.com ![]() Number Of Uninsured Californians Expected To Plummet Under Health Care Ruling David Siders @ sacbee.com ![]() New California budget crafted to influence voters JUDY LIN, Associated Press @ utsandiego.com ![]() Coverage For Most Americans, A Scramble For States - Wire Business News - The Sacramento Bee sacbee.com ![]() Tax label is a small price to pay for survival of healthcare reform David Lauter @ latimes.com ![]() The Caucus: TimesCast Politics: Health Care Decision THE NEW YORK TIMES @ nytimes.com ![]() Compromise On School Fees Bill toped.svefoundation.org ![]() The Buzz: Initiative to regulate health insurance rates won't make November ballot sacbee.com An initiative allowing California's elected insurance commissioner to regulate health insurance rates has failed to qualify for the Nov. 6 ballot, but proponents say voters will have a say on the measure in 2014. Effort To Boost Governor's Tax Hike Draws Lawsuit - Sfgate sfgate.com ![]() Obama Campaign Seeking To Box Romney In With Healthcare Ruling Michael Memoli @ latimes.com ![]() Health Care Act Faces November Election Hurdle Carolyn Lochhead @ sfgate.com ![]() The Caucus: Romney Campaign Begins Coordinated Response to Court Ruling on Health Care MICHAEL D. SHEAR @ nytimes.com ![]() Health Care: Roberts Betrays Right-wing Court Coup calbuzz.com ![]() Jerry Brown Cuts $195.7 Million From Budget Chris Megerian and Michael J. Mishak @ latimes.com ![]() California Budget Would Indefinitely Extend Ban On Dredge Mining Carlos Alcala @ sacbee.com ![]() Angelenos On Healthcare Ruling: 'I Wish I Didn't Have To Pay More' William D'Urso @ latimes.com ![]() Conservatives seize on tax label to attack healthcare ruling Matea Gold @ latimes.com ![]() History of U.S. health care reform, from Roosevelt to Roberts Connie Cass @ mercurynews.com ![]() AM Alert: With budget signed, lawmakers flee Sacramento Micaela Massimino @ blogs.sacbee.com ![]() |