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THE NOONER for October 13, 2011

[jump to the headlines]

DISTRICT UPDATES

  • AD05 - Added Amador Supe Frank Bigelow (R)
  • AD59 - Added school safety officer Daymond Johnson (D)

Good morning from The Nooner's Dallas office, where Texans collectively spit out a million gallons of coffee this morning upon reading this headline: "Herman Cain surges to front of GOP pack in new poll" [wapo]

November 6, 2012 is still 33,696,000 seconds away, and all it takes is one second to upend a political race. I personally doubt Cain has the staying power, particularly when the still-scattered big interests give up coalesce around Romney. That said, most of us doubted we'd see a black president in our lifetimes, let alone the possibility of two black nominees facing off. It's truly remarkable to think about.

THE MORNING READ: George Skelton: Jerry Brown Charts His Own Path - "Gov. Jerry Brown is not a mystery. He's a moderate."

FLEISCHMAN LIKELY DISAGREES: Top 20 Bills To Veto – The Final Score – Governor Signed 15/20

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REALLY? Madera County Supervisor Rogers Earns a Dunce Cap [publicceo]

MONEY MATTERS: Saturday is the deadline for congressional candidates to file third quarter campaign reports with the Federal Elections Commission. The reports cover the period from July 1 through September 30, the first period following the commission's redraw. While some candidates will blame bad numbers on uncertainty about the districts, others will boast about their fundraising prowess during the 45 days following the adoption of the maps. Regardless, the reports will give us some very important information--who is serious about running and who is gaining traction.

Always remember EMILY--early money is like yeast.

We'll particularly be watching the six Democrats in CD02 and the super showdown of Howard Berman and Brad Sherman. Berman reported a haul of $818,770, including contributions from Dianne Feinstein, Jackie Speier and Henry Waxman. [h/t Roll Call] The money totals in these races are less important than the signals of who is gathering money from whom, particularly the already well funded candidates in CD30.

The reports will also be the strongest signs about the plans of Dennis Cardoza and David Dreier. The former is fully expected to retire, while the latter is waiting for the courts to draw him a seat, and may retire if the line gods don't come through. The 59-year-old Dreier doesn't want to retire, but cashing in on K Street at the top of his game just might be better than familiarizing himself with voters in the Mojave Desert. Also, the reports will demonstrate whether Norma Torres is really in the CD35 race with Joe Baca and Gloria Negrete McLeod or running for reelection to the Assembly, and awaiting the Senate.

Another key money race to watch is in Riverside in CD41 where Riverside CCD trustee Mark Takano is facing Riverside Supe and President of the CA Assn of Counties John Tavaglione. This is a pretty solid Democrat seat, although it could be problematic if it's high tide for the GOP next year. The DCCC and the RCCC are standing by and watching the fundraising in the district to determine whether they should (RCCC) or need (DCCC) to put money in the district. Takano yesterday reported raising "around $160,000," and Tavaglione has yet to release his numbers.  [disclosure: I contributed to Takano, a longtime college trustee and friend] 

We will also be watching Dan Lungren's haul to see if he matches Ami Bera's $325,000 in contributions and cash on hand of $708,000. Lungren had $328k on hand as of June 30. Are Norma Macias and Anthony Portantino in it to win it against Grace Napolitano? There are many others, such as Ducheny/Vargas, that will be interesting to watch and should give us plenty to chew on over the next week.

Speaking of CD51, we have poll numbers from the Vargas campaign:

Juan Vargas: 44%
Denise Ducheny: 24%
Don't know: 32% 

[FM3, 9/6-9/10/11, n=400, +/-4.9%]

Eureka. Headlines. Pronto.

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Presidential Campaigns, California Style
John Myers @
blogs.kqed.org
As Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney has ramped up his rhetoric on the topic of illegal immigration in the 2012 race for the White House, you can forgive California political watchers if they feel a sense of déjà vu.

Brown Makes Nice With Local Government :: Fox&hounds
foxandhoundsdaily.com
But time after time, the governor came out against efforts by legislators and interest groups to trump local decisions with a pronouncement from the mavens inside the walls of the state Capitol.

GOP Strategist Marty Wilson Joins Calchamber
Torey Van Oot @
blogs.sacbee.com
The California Chamber of Commerce is beefing up its political team ahead of the 2012 elections, hiring veteran GOP strategist Marty Wilson to lead its campaign operations.

The Buzz: Veteran GOP Strategist To Run Calchamber's Campaign Team
Torey Van Oot @
sacbee.com
The California Chamber of Commerce is beefing up its political team ahead of the 2012 elections, hiring veteran GOP strategist Marty Wilson to lead its campaign operations.

Gov. Jerry Brown Charts His Own Path
George Skelton @
latimes.com
Those seeking a pattern in his decision-making should remember that he's a nonconformist first and foremost.

New State Law Will Nullify Simi Valley's E-verify Requirement
Timm Herdt @
vcstar.com
A new law signed last week by Gov. Jerry Brown will invalidate ordinances in Simi Valley and 11 other Southern California cities that require all businesses that contract with the city to confirm the citizenship or immigration status of their employees through the use of the federal government's voluntary E-Verify system.

Speier Co-authors Bill To Allow 'Amazon Tax'
Local @
insidebayarea.com
California and other states could move ahead with making online retailers such as Amazon collect and remit sales taxes even if the companies don't have physical presences in those states, under a new bipartisan bill co-authored by a Bay Area House member.

California government rules and reality sometimes clash
sacbee.com
Unions this week hailed Gov. Jerry Brown for signing legislation aimed at making it harder for the state to contract for services that state workers can provide.

Sac State Pressed Spanos For Million In Late Pledge Funds
Malcolm Maclachlan @
capitolweekly.net
Five years after billionaire developer Alex Spanos pledged $10 million to Sacramento State, the money hadn’t arrived and the school was getting anxious.

Bay Area teachers protest education reform summit
The Associated Press @
signonsandiego.com
San Francisco Bay area teachers are protesting an education conference featuring News Corp. CEO Rupert Murdoch as the keynote speaker.

Viewpoints: We value the wrong things in how we pay for health care
sacbee.com
The root of the problem is how we pay doctors and hospitals. Most health care in this country is still compensated per unit delivered. Thus, the volume of work produced becomes the primary metric.

Feds To Target Newspapers, Radio For Marijuana Ads
californiawatch.org
Federal prosecutors are preparing to target newspapers, radio stations and other media outlets that advertise medical marijuana dispensaries in California, another escalation in the Obama administration's newly invigorated war against the state's pot industry.

Denied Veterans Benefits Over Same-Sex Marriage, Carmen Cardona Sues
nytimes.com
Carmen Cardona, a disabled Navy veteran from Connecticut, is challenging the constitutionality of two federal laws that define marriage as being between opposite-sex partners.

Gov. Jerry Brown charts his own path
George Skelton @
latimes.com
Those looking for a pattern in the governor's decision-making should remember that he's a nonconformist first and foremost.

California remap commission asks for lawsuits to be dismissed
Dan Smith @
blogs.sacbee.com
The commission that drew new political districts for California this year has asked the California Supreme Court to toss out lawsuits challenging lines for Congress and the state Senate.

With three 9S, Cain changes math for taxes
Trip Gabriel and Susan Saulny @
mercurynews.com
It was a skull session at 28,000 feet. Herman Cain, the Republican presidential candidate, and his advisers were on a campaign flight this summer between Atlanta and New Hampshire, tossing around policy ideas.

Reid pushing millionaire's tax
Scott Wong @
politico.com
The Senate majority leader says parts of the jobs bill could be paid for by the proposed tax.

Bid To Reverse California School Instruction Bill Won't Qualify
Torey Van Oot @
blogs.sacbee.com
An effort to repeal a new law requiring that California school instruction includes the contributions and role of gay and lesbian individuals has failed.

Study says SDSU president paid less than counterparts
signonsandiego.com
A proposed new compensation policy for California State University presidents would benchmark San Diego State University against a pool of 11 public universities that pay their presidents an average of $458,360 in base salary.

In 2008, Cain Endorsed Romney
nytimes.com
As he competes with Mitt Romney for the Republican presidential nomination, Herman Cain is quick to tick off his list of what makes Mr. Romney unelectable. But Conor Friedersdorf of The Atlantic points out that in 2008, Mr. Cain ignored those same objections and endorsed Mr. Romney over several other candidates, including Representative Ron Paul of Texas and Senator John McCain of Arizona, who went on to win the nomination.

Gavin Newsom accuses California of growing lazy about jobs
David Siders @
blogs.sacbee.com
Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, continuing to press his jobs plan at an economic conference this morning, said California has been held back by a lackadaisical attitude about job creation that began long before the flagging economy's most recent downturn.

Bachmann’s Years at Oral Roberts University
nytimes.com
Michele Bachmann does not bring up her law education on the campaign trail much, but it involved an unusual experiment aimed at combining traditional teaching with charismatic Christian belief.