Congressional District 25
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All Districts > CD25: S. Clarita/Palmdale
[incumbent: Howard McKeon (R) - term limit: none]

Hourly election night report

June 3 Primary Election Results
Live Results
CandidateVotesPercentPrecincts Reporting
Tony Strickland (R)19,09029.6%383 of 383
Steve Knight (R)18,32728.4%383 of 383
Lee Rogers (D)14,31522.2%383 of 383
Evan "Ivan" Thomas (D)6,1499.5%383 of 383
Troy Castagna (R)3,8055.9%383 of 383
David Koster Bruce (L)1,2141.9%383 of 383
Michael Mussack (N)9331.4%383 of 383
Navraj Singh (R)6991.1%383 of 383

County Breakdown | Vote Count Tracker
Source: California Secretary of State

Candidates On The Ballot- 2014

District Projection: Safe Republican | ATC Partisan Index = 54.6 R
  • Lee Rogers (Democratic) - Doctor
    www.leerogersforcongress.com  
  • Michael Mussack (No Party Preference) - Businessman/Educator
    www.Mussack4Congress.com  
  • Troy Castagna (Republican) - Taxpayer Advocate
    www.troycastagna.com  
  • Tony Strickland (Republican) - Business Owner
    www.tonystrickland.com  
  • Steve Knight (Republican) - Senator/Small Businessman
    www.steveknight.org  
  • Evan "Ivan" Thomas (Democratic) - Test Pilot/Educator
    www.thomas4congress.org  
  • Navraj Singh (Republican) - Business Owner  
  • David Koster Bruce (Libertarian) - Business Owner  
  • (i) = incumbent

    Until the filing period closes, candidates who have made gestures to a run are included. Some of these may not run, while others are likely to jump in.

    2012 Presidential Race

    • Barack Obama (D) 47.8%
    • Mitt Romney (R) 49.7%

    2010 Gubernatorial Race

    • Jerry Brown (D) 39.0%
    • Meg Whitman (R) 52.4%

    District Map

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    District Voter Registration

    Analysis

    After 11-term Congressman Howard "Buck" McKeon announced he would not seek reelection, the two significant Republican camps in this region quickly came forward with consensus candidates.

    Tony Strickland, who had raised funds through the cycle for the adjacent CD26, emerged as McKeon's chosen successor. As an alternative to Strickland, State Senator Steve Knight jumped in with the support of George and Sharon Runner, and Assemblymember Scott Wilk (who defeated McKeon's wife for the Assembly in 2012).

    Meanwhile, physician Lee Rogers is making a case to anyone who will listen that a Democrat can win this seat. Rogers points to voter registration progress and Obama's narrow loss here in 2012. This explains why Republican strategists in Washington were happy to have McKeon retire in 2014, rather in a higher-turnout presidential cycle. This seat will very likely be a toss-up in the next few cycles, although it is very likely Republicans will hold it in 2014.

    If Rogers can h . . .

    More Analysis

    Fundraising

    Reported Fundraising
    (Total for this cycle)
    CandidateContributionsExpendituresCash on HandDebtFiling Period Close
    Knight, Steve$151,111$107,864$43,248$27,7922014-05-14
    Rogers, Lee C.$569,437$528,958$46,861$02014-05-14
    Strickland, Anthony A$1,020,567$727,389$436,016$02014-05-14
    Thomas, Evan Charles$11,443$10,210$1,233$02014-03-31
     
    Source: Federal Elections Commission

    2012 General Results

    November 6 General Election Results
    Final Results
    CandidateVotesPercentPrecincts Reporting
    Howard P. "Buck" McKeon (R)129,59354.8%420 of 420
    Lee C. Rogers (D)106,98245.2%420 of 420

    County Breakdown | Vote Count Tracker
    Source: California Secretary of State

    2012 Primary Results

    June 5 Primary Election Results
    Final Results
    CandidateVotesPercentPrecincts Reporting
    Howard P. "Buck" McKeon (R)39,99750.5%371 of 371
    Lee C. Rogers (D)23,54229.7%371 of 371
    Dante Acosta (R)10,38713.1%371 of 371
    Cathie Wright (R)5,2156.6%371 of 371

    County Breakdown
    Source: California Secretary of State

    Demographics

    2010 Census Demographics for CD25
     AsianBlackLatino
    Citizen Voting-Age Population 6.7% 7.8% 22.5%
    Total Population 7.7% 8.4% 35.3%

    The Bench (likely future candidates)

  • Steve Knight (R) - Member, State Senate
  • Cameron Smyth (R) - Former Member, State Assembly
  • Tony Strickland (R) - Former Member, State Senate
  • ...[suggest additions]
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