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California Elections: Assembly District 38

Assembly District 38

All Districts > AD38: Santa Clarita
[incumbent: Christy Smith (D-Newhall) - term limit: 2030 - Directory Page]

Probable Candidates: 2020

District Projection: Leans Democratic
2019-12-11 1700: While filing has closed for all non-special elections, lists are still pending from several counties. This candidate list will continue to be updated for several days. The official list will be published by the Secretary of State on December 26.
  • Kelvin Driscoll (Democratic) - County Program Director  
  • Susan Christopher (Democratic) -   
  • Lucie Volotzky (Republican) - Small Business Owner  
  • Annie Cho (Democratic) - Businesswoman/Parent  
  • Brandii Grace (Democratic) - STEM Educator
    graceforassembly.netlify.com  
  • Dina Cervantes (Democratic) - Education Consultant/Businesswoman
    www.dinacervantes.com  
  • Suzette Valladares (Republican) - Educator/Nonprofit Director
    suzettevalladares.com  
  • (i) = incumbent

    Until the filing period closes, candidates who have made gestures to a run are included. Some of these may not run, while others are likely to jump in.

    Analysis

    In 2018, Democrat Christy Smith defeated incumbent Dante Acosta 51.5%-48.5% in this district north of Los Angeles in a rematch from 2016. It looked like Acosta would seek a rematch in 2020 and filed a statement of intent, but appears to have decided against a run, reporting no contributions in the semi-annual 2019 report.

    Before the Assembly, Smith served two terms on the Newhall School District board. She has a B.A. in political . . .

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    District Geography

    Counties: Los Angeles (74.3%), Ventura (25.7%) of 288,394 registered voters.
     

    2016 Presidential Race

    • Hillary Clinton (D) 49.6%
    • Donald Trump (R) 44.4%

    2014 Gubernatorial Race

    • Edmund G. ("Jerry") Brown, Jr. (D) 43.2%
    • Neel Kashkari (R) 56.8%

    2012 Presidential Race

    • Barack Obama (D) 46.7%
    • Mitt Romney (R) 50.8%

    Demographics

    2010 Census Demographics for AD38
     AsianBlackLatino
    Citizen Voting-Age Population 9.7% 3.7% 16.7%
    Total Population 12.2% 3.4% 25.8%

    The Bench (likely future candidates)