Assembly District 12
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All Districts > AD12: Modesto
[incumbent: Heath Flora (R) - term limit: 2028]

Probable Primary Election Candidates: 2018

District Projection: Safe Republican | ATC Partisan Index = 56.6 R
  • (i) Heath Flora (Republican) - Member, State Assembly
    heathflora.com  
  • (i) = incumbent

    Analysis

    In this safe Republican district, Ken Vogel has gobbled up the endorsements and is the favorite to succeed Kristin Olsen in the Assembly.

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    District Map

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    District Voter Registration

    2016 Presidential Race

    • Hillary Clinton (D) 43.1%
    • Donald Trump (R) 51.1%

    2014 Gubernatorial Race

    • Edmond G. ("Jerry") Brown, Jr. (D) 47.0%
    • Neil Kashkari (R) 53.0%

    2012 Presidential Race

    • Barack Obama (D) 45.1%
    • Mitt Romney (R) 52.4%

    2010 Gubernatorial Race

    • Jerry Brown (D) 39.3%
    • Meg Whitman (R) 53.2%

    Fundraising

    Reported Fundraising
    (Total for this cycle)
    CandidateContributionsExpendituresCash on HandDebtFiling Period Close

    Demographics

    2010 Census Demographics for AD12
     AsianBlackLatino
    Citizen Voting-Age Population 4.7% 2.8% 21.0%
    Total Population 5.8% 2.9% 34.4%

    The Bench (likely future candidates)

    Incumbent term limit: 0

    Discussion

    Mentions

    • 2016-10-16: AD12 (Modesto): Assembly campaign choice: Tried an . . .
    • 2015-08-24: AD12 is likely to be filled by one of the three Re . . .
    • 2015-06-09: AD12 (Olsen), AD34 (Grove), AD55&nb . . .
    • 2015-06-08: AD12 (Olsen), AD14 (Bonilla), AD24 (Gordon), AD27 . . .
    • 2014-01-15: AD12 (Modesto): added Turlock Unified trustee Hari . . .
    • 2013-05-14: AD12 (Modesto) - Safe Republican *Kristen Olsen . . .
    • 2013-05-13: AD12 (Modesto) - Safe Republican *Kristen Olsen . . .
    • 2012-12-20: AD12 Modesto 67.8% AD66 Torrance 67.6% . . .
    • 2012-10-23: AD12: Kristin Olsen says "no" to Grover. AD50: We . . .
    • 2012-08-07: AD12 (Modesto): -5.9% AD38 (Santa Clarita): -7.2% . . .
    [more]