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The Nooner for July 27th

 

DISTRICT UPDATES:

  • CA31 (Redlands): updated analysis (subscribers only)
  • SD27 (Ventura): Changed from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic 

SCORE! I have updated the ATC Partisan Indices on the district pages. As with last cycle, there are two different district ratings I provide. One is the Partisan Index. This is the underlying partisanship of a district, which accounts for performance in previous statewide/presidential elections and changes in voter registration. This doesn't necessarily forecast a particular outcome. For example, Congressman David Valadao is in CD21, which has a Partisan Index of 55.0 D. It's a good indicator, however, and is accurate in 99% of races. 

The other rating is the District Projection, which generally includes Safe Democratic, Likely Democratic, Leans Democratic, Toss-Up, Leans Republican, Likely Republican, and Safe Republican. Unlike the Partisan Index, this is my subjective projection based on several factors:

  • Partisan index
  • National trends (including presidential nominees)
  • Candidates (including incumbency bonus)
  • Fundraising performance of candidates
  • Endorsements
  • On-the-ground observations

Obviously, these can and will change through the cycle. For example, if two members of the same party win a top-two primary, a district will move to "Safe" for that respective party.

The Partisan Indices should only change with the voter registration updates (December, April, May, September).

Anyway, you ca . . .

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