Around The Capitol

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RECENT PODS: Obviously, there are lots of pods these days. I try to select a few of those most relevant to California's politics and policy, rather than every episode from the pods I follow.

  • California State of Mind (KQED): CA recall rules and riling up voters with Garry South, Rob Stutzman, and Sac State professor Kim Nalder. (2021-08-06)
  • Political Breakdown (Guy Marzorati and Marisa Lagos @ KQED): The recall candidate debate and associate executive director of governmental relations at the California Teachers Association Teri Holoman on being a 'political firefighter.' (2021-08-05)
  • Capitol Weekly Podcast (John Howard and Tim Foster): The recall in polling (2021-08-01)

CLASSIFIEDS BELOW:

  • California Lawyers Association Executive Director (Sacramento)
  • Ask an Expert: A California Ocean Science Trust Briefing on Offshore Wind - 08/11
  • CalTax Seeks a Research Analyst
  • Children’s Council of San Francisco is seeking an experienced Public Policy Communications Associate
  • McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific - MPA/MPP
  • McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific - Masters of Science in Law

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The Nooner for Monday, August 9, 2021, presented by SYASL Partners

LEGISLATURE RETURNS: 7 days
BALLOTS MAILED:
 7 days
ELECTION DAY: 36 days

Happy Monday and the last week of the Legislature's summer recess. When they return next week, it's going to be a crazy sprint for nearly a month before the interim recess begins on September 10. Oh, yeah, the end of this year's session (first of the biennial) is four days before the recall election. This creates a very odd situation. Who will be governor for the 30-day signing period following the Legislature's work this year?

I still don't think Governor Newsom will be recalled, but all eventualities must be considered. Technically, in a recall election, the incumbent being recalled is out of office when the election is certified. Of course, that is generally a month after the election. While that's largely just a formality in usual times, it may be a practicality this year since the ballots will almost all be cast by mail.

I'm spending my afternoons trying to figure out turnout, which in poll weighting and other professional projections ranges from 40%-60%. In the 2003 recall of Gray Davis, turnout was 70.45% of registered voters.

However, that was a get your ass out of bed and cast a ballot on October 7 sort of election. Only 29.49% of voters cast a ballot via the passé "absentee" method.

This year, every voter is being mailed a ballot. If anybody sells you on a prediction one way or another, you'd better just drop money on the Giants or the Dodgers going long in October. Nobody knows.

The only data point we have for an all-mail statewide election was last November. In that election in which every registered voter was mailed a ballot, 69.95% returned a ballot by mail. Of course, that was a presidential. For most (see LA item yesterday about early ballots) voters, the election isn't on their radar. Our attention is spread across a lot of media and capturing ads at this point for a position on question #1 or a candidate on question #2 is right behind the Olympics, which appear to have had multiple decade-long record low ratings.

I'm expecting more respected (e.g. not SurveyUSA) polls soon. I will still take them with a grain of salt on both questions. They are data points in a scattergram.

But, back to the issue we started with. The bill signing period.

Gray Davis conceded the recall shortly after midnight on October 8, 2013, hours after polls closed. But Arnold Schwarzenegger wasn't sworn in until November 17.

If, which I think is a long shot but my job is to think about possibles, Newsom is recalled, there would be two choices. He could stay in office and sign bills that would help him in a comeback election in November 2022, which could be a total possibility. Or, if he decided to refocus his life on the private sector, he could resign and hand the keys to Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis to act on legislation and set her up for November 2022. The Newsom-Kounalakis relationship is very different than Davis-Bustamante.

Anyway, this is what legislators and lobbyists are thinking about as they evaluate what to do with their bills over the final 26 days of the legislatuve year.

Some folks ask why I started adding COVID-19-related hospitalizations to the metrics below. Well, my dad has been in the hospital on and off (to medical rehabilitation) over the last week, and "triage" has become about moving COVID-19 patients out as quickly as possible. Knowing our 8,000+ Nooner community, I am sure me and my sister aren't the only ones dealing with this.

WEEKENDS AT THE NOONER: I hope you stepped away from your devices over the weekend and, if in affected areas (like here), got away from the smoke. Of course, the show must go on, so here is what was covered in this space the last couple of days.

Saturday, August 7

Sunday, August 8

DO YOU RECALL?

  • Recall election key dates:
    • August 16: Ballot mailing begins to all registered voters
    • September 2: Second pre-election campaign finance statement
    • September 14: Election Day
  • Second question: In the LAT, John Myers and Seema Mehta find flaws in the strategy of Governor Newsom's team telling voters to basically ignore the second question on the recall ballot while also finding a flaw in the recall election process itself.

    The California Constitution is clear that voters have the right to remove Newsom during his term in office, an amendment added by voters in 1911. Less clear, perhaps, is whether the recall ballot should have two questions. The Constitution states that an election to choose a successor must be held “if appropriate,” perhaps acknowledging that the recall of a member of the Legislature, for example, leaves a vacancy that can be filled only by the voters.

    “But it’s not ‘appropriate’ in the case of a governor’s recall, because the Constitution already provides a clear mandate of how a vacancy should be handled,” said Mark Paul, a former deputy state treasurer and author of a book on California government reform.

    “The lieutenant governor shall become governor when a vacancy occurs in the office of governor,” Paul said, quoting Article 5 of the California Constitution.

    The phrase “if appropriate” was adopted by voters in 1974, drafted by a bipartisan reform commission and removing the 1911 language that explicitly required the list of replacement candidates to appear alongside the question of whether to recall the incumbent. Paul said he believes the current language is ripe to be challenged in court should Newsom lose.

    For now, Democrats are focused on changing their odds at the ballot.

    Both Democrats and Republicans have been saying for some time that the energy in this election is with Republicans, so members of Newsom’s party have their work cut out for them.

    “I’ve always known this was going to be close because of the energy on the Republican side,” said former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who ran unsuccessfully against Newsom in 2018. “And we’ve got a lot of work ahead of us.”

  • Empty chair: George Skelton writes for the Times that talk show host Larry Elder's decision to pass on the debate last week was a big failure.

    One of the first rules of politics is to show up.

    And to win a competitive contest, you’ve got to compete — including in debates.

    Elder’s excuse was that he wants to debate only Newsom — not participate in “a circular firing squad” in which Republicans wound one another.

    But virtually all bullets were fired at Newsom. The only significant shot at a Republican was Ose calling Faulconer “a plastic man” for his homelessness policy in San Diego.

    ...

    Had Elder been onstage, he probably would have taken guff about his political inexperience. But celebrity governors Ronald Reagan and Arnold Schwarzenegger deftly handled such attacks: They were citizen politicians running against the corrupt political establishment.

    Elder missed a golden opportunity to distinguish himself from the other Republicans — especially the moderate Faulconer — and rally his conservative base, not only to his candidacy but to turn out en masse for the recall.

    Elder may have lacked confidence in his knowledge of state issues — at least the details — compared with the four who debated. But details are overrated in campaign debates. Voters mostly just want to size up the candidate’s demeanor and positions.

    Newsom also could have benefited from participating in the debate. He was invited but didn’t respond.

Fundraising and cash through 08/08/21

Semi-annual or first preelection report plus $1,000+ contributions since

John
Cox

Larry
Elder

Kevin Faulconer

Ted
Gaines

Jeff
Hewitt

Caitlyn Jenner

Kevin Kiley

Doug Ose

Kevin Paffrath

Candidate

$6,097,618

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$32,400 

$90,000

Non-candidate

$1,352,793

$4,742,830

$1,983,125

$275,810

$161,422

$738,385

$856,393

$280,816 

$299,720

Contributions reported yesterday*

$273,800         

$6,000

   

07/31 Net Cash on Hand**

$580,428

$2,275,726

$605,565

$148,975

$33,536

-$134,839

$572,188

-$49,245

-$6,085

Source: cal-access.sos.ca.gov

*Net cash on hand is reported cash on hand with non-candidate, nonforgiveable debt subtracted.

**24-hour reports are delayed when they fall on a Saturday, Sunday or holiday to the next business day, unless received the weekend before the election.

You know folks, you're allowed to not report over the weekend (until the final weekend). Some of us would appreciate a couple of days off. We received not-required 41 pages from Elder yesterday, who managed to miss the reporting deadline by a day last week.

I get it, unlike usual a-list candidates raising big dough who have law firms doing their compliance and reporting work, Elder has a La Mesa councilmember as his treasurer. It's cute, but not really good for a multi-million campaign. There's a reason we hire law firms with compliance departments to handle this and there are several on all sides of the aisles.

 

Stop the Republican Recall of Governor Newsom

Semi-annual report plus $1,000+ contributions since

Contributions  $58,313,806
07/31 net cash on hand $25,963,610
Contributions since 07/31 $3,240,101
Added yesterday $0

 

COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2

  • Vaxx stats: 
    • Californians fully vaccinated: 21,572,282 (63.6% of 12+) - 17th among U.S. states, 13.5% above national average
    • Californians partially vaccinated: 3,338,976 (9.8% of 12+) - 10th among U.S. states
    • Californians with no vaccine: 26.6% (of 12+)
    • Doses on hand: 5,075,813 (70 days of inventory, does not account for doses reserved for current appointments)
    • full data, including demographic breakdown
  • Positivity rate: The 7-day positivity rate dropped to 6.3% and is now a 0.8% decrease from seven days ago.
  • Hospitalizations: The 14-day statewide hospitalizations average have increased 1,255.9 on July 1 to 4,732.5 on August 7. 
  • School daze: The LAT's Howard Blume looks at how the Delta variant is affecting the plans to return to in-person instruction.

    Back-to-school 2021, with California campuses fully open for 6 million children, was supposed to herald relief — even celebration — for a mostly normal school year ahead. But a surge in the highly contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus has reignited parents’ anxiety — and, for many, the safety and quality of schooling once again feel uncertain and tenuous.

    “I wanted to be excited about a new school year, but now I am having to think: ‘Am I putting our health at risk by going to school in person?’” said Irma Villalpando, who has two high school daughters at the Maywood Center for Enriched Studies. “I am feeling very sad because I think that it is going to be another very difficult year.”

    Some parents have frantically explored limited online options. And questions over safety protocols are taking on an urgent tone: What happens if someone at my child’s school tests positive? What happens if my child is exposed — will their class be quarantined? Will their school close? Are all teachers vaccinated? What about coronavirus testing?

    The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health disclosed last week that there were seven outbreaks in youth settings during the final week of July — the most since December. Most were associated with youth sports — and heavily associated with poor health safety practices, such as inconsistent mask wearing, lack of physical distancing and failing to isolate sick individuals and their close contacts.

EARTH, WIND, AND FIRE:

  • Dixie Fire: 
    • Here is today's updated chart.


Dixie Fire trends

Largest Active Fires 
  County Cause Acres Consumed Containment Structures Destroyed Fatalities Personnel On Scene Updated
Dixie Fire Butte, Plumas, Lassen,
Tehama
power lines suspected 489,287 21% 627 0 5,813 08/09
07:27
River Fire Nevada, Placer u/i  2,619  68% 88 0 494  08/09
07:26
Notes:

u/i= under investigation 

 cakeday and classifieds after the jump...

Probolsky Research

 

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Sorry for the nags and I know it's irritating, but I also know you're seeing them from newspapers and other media properties in your email inbox during the advertising void.

With little new hiring or live events taking place, classifieds are down $200/week, or half my rent.

Help with rent, health insurance, the server, and newspaper subscriptions by subscribing or donating.

Hopefully this customary ad slot will be filled again soon!

 

CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Senator Brian JonesKathy Neal, Naomi Padron, and Teresa Stark!

Classifieds

Add your classified now both in The Nooner and online for $50/week or $150/month by emailing scottlay@gmail.com, with a headline, a summary of up to 200 words, and what you'd like the end date to be. You can attach a PDF or provide a link for a bigger job description/info to apply. [Other advertising options]


California Lawyers Association Executive Director (Sacramento)

California Lawyers Association (CLA) is soliciting applications for the position of Executive Director.

The Executive Director, based at CLA headquarters in Sacramento, is responsible to, advises and assists the CLA Board of Representatives which is responsible for Association policy, strategy, and oversight, as well as the CLA President. The Executive Director oversees CLA staff operations and is responsible for leading, managing and executing the affairs of the Association as directed by CLA’s leadership and implementing its policies to the overall benefit of the organization, its constituent entities and members.

Minimum Qualifications:

  • A J.D. degree;
  • Admitted to the State Bar of California or the bar of any state or the District of Columbia; and
  • At least seven years of experience in positions of increasing managerial and leadership responsibility;
Ask an Expert: A California Ocean Science Trust Briefing on Offshore Wind

Join the Ocean Science Trust (OST), in partnership with the Office of Assemblymember David Chiu and the California Council on Science and Technology (CCST) on Wednesday, August 11th from 3:00-4:00 pm for our latest Ask an Expert: A California Ocean Science Trust Briefing on Offshore Wind. A panel of experts including Dr. Andrea Copping (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory), Dr. Arne Jacobson (Humboldt State University), Dr. Benjamin Ruttenberg (Cal Poly State University), and moderated by Jordan Diamond (UC Berkeley), will answer your questions and discuss the science and technology of potential offshore wind energy development along the California coast. RSVP

CalTax Seeks a Research Analyst

The California Taxpayers Association (CalTax), the state's oldest and largest association representing California taxpayers, is seeking a Research Analyst to join our policy team. The ideal candidate is a self-starter, and should have a background in public policy analysis, strong written and verbal communication skills, and the ability to produce objective and thoughtful research and analysis. For details and information on how to apply, please go to https://www.caltax.org/jobs/2021-research-analyst.pdf.

Children’s Council of San Francisco is seeking an experienced Public Policy Communications Associate

The Public Policy & Advocacy Team works on early care and education issues at the local, state and federal
levels, whether legislative or budgetary. The position is based in San Francisco, three days in office and two days remote.

Responsibilities:

  • In collaboration with our Public Policy Communications Director, you will advocate for the organization’s
    local, state, and federal priorities—engaging in multiple simultaneous advocacy campaigns.
  • Track notable legislation, assist with developing public comment and ensure we send notifications out to community
    members to ensure the community has an opportunity to respond.
  • Engage staff in advocacy via advocacy trainings and preparing bi-weekly staff advocacy updates
  • Meet with advocacy community organizations about our advocacy work, priorities &
    opportunities to collaborate
  • See full job description linked below for full responsibilities

Preferred Qualifications:

  • Two to four years of experience in public affairs, public policy, advocacy, community organizing, digital
  • advocacy or similar roles
  • Demonstrated ability to execute legislative and administrative advocacy and/or advocacy campaigns
  • Expected to attend evening and weekend meetings and travel to meetings and conferences (approximately
  • 15 – 25% of time, depending on the time of year)
  • Experience drafting policy update documents and emails
  • Ability to read, understand, and succinctly summarize policy or legislation to different audiences

Qualified candidates should apply here: https://childrenscouncilsf.bamboohr.com/jobs/view.php?id=74

The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific

In addition to a well-respected JD, the McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees. Both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working succeed in the program. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a foundation in statutory interpretation and skills in public policy making and implementation. Learn at a beautiful campus three miles from the State Capitol:
go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy

McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific

Built on the foundation of nationally ranked and world class programs, McGeorge School of Law offers an online master (MSL) degree for individuals seeking in depth knowledge of law and policy, but who do not require a traditional law degree. Our MSL’s two concentrations in Government Law & Policy and in Water & Environmental Law offer students the flexibility to work while they learn and still engage in a highly interactive master’s program. To learn more and to sign up for our monthly webinars, please visit our website, Online.McGeorge.edu, or contact us at graduatelaw@pacific.edu.

Political Data Inc.
For 30 Years PDI has been California’s premier data vendor. Now, you can get live online trainings on the newest PDI software every week: