Around The Capitol

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RECENT PODS: Obviously, there are lots of pods these days. I try to select a few of those most relevant to California's politics and policy, rather than every episode from the pods I follow.

  • Then There's California (Senate Democratic Caucus): Senator Melissa Hurtado (D-Sanger) on SB 464, her "Comida Para Todos" (Food For All) legislation (2021-07-27)
  • Capitol Weekly Podcast (John Howard and Tim Foster): Randall Hagar, Policy Consultant and Legislative Advocate for the Psychiatric Physicians Alliance of California on the Lanterman Act, Laura's Law, and Britney Spears (2021-07-26)
  • SacTown Talks (Jarhett Blonien): Labor Law Regulation Panel with Tom Sheehy, Ashley Hoffman, and John Kabateck (2021-07-23)
  • Nooner Conversations (Scott Lay): Lobbyist, lawyer, and adjunct law faculty Chris Micheli and I talk about the first 7 months of the legislative year and what to expect in the final month. Additionally, we talk about his two new casebooks on California's Direct Democracy and Legislative Process. (2021-07-23) [YouTube | Apple Podcasts | Amazon PodcastsSimplecast]
  • Political Breakdown (Scott Shafer and Marisa Lagos @ KQED): San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria on Creating a 'Bigger City Vision' for San Diego (2021-07-22)
  • The San Francisco Experience The California Recall State of Play: In conversation with Laurel Rosenhall political reporter with CalMatters (2021-07-21)

CLASSIFIEDS BELOW:

  • Overland Strategies: Account Executive
  • Capitol Seminars’ Advanced Courses: Budget Advocacy & "So You Think You Want to Sponsor a Bill" Offered Via Zoom - 07/29
  • Miller & Olson LLP Seeks Political Reports Specialist
  • Aaron Read & Associates Office Space for Rent
  • McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific - MPA/MPP
  • McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific - Masters of Science in Law

RECALL WATCH:

  • California Patriot Coalition - Recall Governor Gavin Newsom reports receiving:
    • $2,500 from Rick Mariano (real estate, San Francisco)
    • $1,000 from Donald Bobo (engineer, Santa Ana)
  • Rescue California-To Support the Recall of Gavin Newsom reports receiving:
    • $5,000 from John Amendola (gen. manager, Valleywide Beverage, Fresno)
    • $2,500 from Richard Machado (Fresno)
  • Stop the Republican Recall of Governor Newsom reports receiving:
    • $10,000 from California IATSE Council PAC
    • $1,045 from Margaret Hutchinson (not employed, Los Angeles)
    • $1,000 from Marilyn Gausewitz (not employed, Newport Beach)
    • $1,000 from Kim Ridder (not employed, Claremont)
    • $1,000 from Thomas Warren (engineer, San Ramon)
    • $500 from Jocelyn Vick (not employed, Sonoma)

The Nooner for Tuesday, July 27, 2021, presented by SYASL Partners

LEGISLATURE RETURNS: 20 days
BALLOTS MAILED:
 20 days
ELECTION DAY: 49 days

SPORTS PAGE: First pitch of Dodgers at the Giants is at 6:45, with Urias on the mound for the men in blue and Webb pitching for the orange and black.

Happy terrific Tuesday! It's a busy day in the gnus. We have a new recall poll, vaccination/testing requirements for state employees, and forthcoming CDC guidance on masking indoors for those already vaccinated. 

Meanwhile, I'm repeating this all week:

I announced Nooner Sustainers in Friday's This Week in Nooner email, but now have a page up describing it. Several of you have asked for something like this during my nag sessions over the last year, and I finally got to it on my to-do/wish list. Of course, that list continues to be very long. 

Although I have replaced the "nag box" for the new program that doesn't mean I don't equally need/appreciate those $10-25 tips or anything you can do. For the app users, in addition to Venmo (Scott-Lay), I have added the Cash App and am scott95811, and of course there are Square, PayPal, and traditional mail options here. Thank you to those who have already stepped up!

As the legislative session winds down with only one month left meaning the advertising picture won't be much better for awhile, it's clear that I must rely on readers more to get through this year. Advertising (display and classified) is down $2,000 per month and I've already wiped out my savings. Meanwhile, readership has held steady.

Hopefully 2022 will be largely back to normal, but for now, I thank you for considering supporting this work.

Otherwise, I'll need to shut down The Nooner soon and get a "real job." I can't do this as a hobby as I used to, as it's now 12 hours of work most days between The Nooner and the website, from coding to content. I don't say that to complain, as I love what I'm doing and this community we have.

Thank you,
Scott

On to the news...

COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2: 

  • Vaxx stats: 
    • Californians fully vaccinated: 21,087,719 (62.1% of 12+) - 17th among U.S. states
    • Californians partially vaccinated: 3,179,700 (94% of 12+) - 12th among U.S. states
    • Californians with no vaccine: 28.5% (of 12+)
    • Doses on hand: 5,448,472 (83 days of inventory)
    • full data, including demographic breakdown
  • Positivity rate: The 7-day positivity rate is 5.4% (+0.1%), a 0.8% increase from seven days ago and hasn't been at that rate since February 9. Of course, this has to be considered in light of fewer tests, with vaccinated folks not actively seeking regular tests unless required for travel or work.
  • Masking: Reversing course amidst high transmission of the Delta variant including breakthrough cases, the Centers from Disease Control is expected to recommend later today that vaccinated persons should wear masks in doors in certain parts of the country.

    As of 11:00am, the CDC's new recommendations were not available and it's unclear whether the indoor masking rules will be based on vaccination rates, transmission rates, or both. Los Angeles County currently requires masks indoors, although enforcement is largely up to the operator of a business to enforce. Most Bay Area counties recommend, but do not require, masking indoors.
  • State and health care workers: For CalMatters, Ana B. Ibarra writes up the announcement of Governor Newsom yesterday about the new requirements for state employees and most health care and congregate setting workers.

    Amid an uptick in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations, California Gov. Gavin Newsom [yesterday] announced that health care workers and state employees must be vaccinated or undergo weekly testing and wear masks.

    Employees of hospitals, nursing homes, dentists’ and doctors’ offices and other health care settings will have to comply with the requirements by Aug. 23. In addition, all employees of state agencies will be subjected to a verification process that will be mostly in place by Aug. 2, according to state officials.

    Short of a vaccination mandate, the new policy comes as the Delta variant has become the dominant strain in California — approximately 80% of the COVID-19 cases sequenced were of the Delta type, according to the state. Experts say the Delta variant is highly contagious and poses a serious threat to unvaccinated people.

    ...

    The California Hospital Association voiced strong support for the governor’s order, calling the requirements “important and necessary steps that must be taken in this extraordinary situation.” 

    But one of the state’s largest health care unions declined to comment directly on the new policy. The union prefers “education and outreach” over mandatory vaccination or testing, said Renee Saldana, press secretary for SEIU-UHW, which represents about 100,000 California health care workers, including certified nursing assistants, respiratory therapists, hospital cooks and janitors.

    Saldana also declined to comment on what the union would do if health care providers require mandatory vaccinations for workers, as some hospital systems have done.

    The American Medical Association and the American Nurses Association, along with about 60 other medical groups, signed a joint statement [yesterday] calling for the mandatory vaccination of health care workers. And the Veterans Affairs Administration said it would require COVID-19 vaccinations for some of its workers, including doctors and nurses. It is the first federal agency to do so.

  • SF bars: Meanwhile, the San Francisco Bar Owners Alliance announced a policy yesterday recommending its members require proof of vaccination by patrons entering bars. Tanay Warkerar reports for the Chron:  

    The announcement follows news last week, when the group said it was surveying its members on the topic. On Monday, Ben Bleiman, the owner of bars like Soda Popinski’s and Tonic and the Alliance’s founder, issued a statement on behalf of the group outlining measures that bars should undertake. The Alliance does not require members to follow the protocol; it is simply a recommendation, but given the rise in COVID-19 cases in the Bay Area due to the Delta variant, Bleiman feels the measures are imperative.

    The new measures will be effective starting Thursday, July 29. Patrons will be required to show proof of vaccination to eat or drink indoors either in the form of a vaccination card, a legible photo of the card or through California’s digital vaccine record system. The group of bars will also accept a 72-hour negative COVID-19 test for entry. The Alliance has left it up to individual bars to decide how they want to enforce these measures. Unvaccinated people are still welcome to eat outdoors at bars that are part of the group.

    “This decision is based solely on our need to protect our workers, customers, and their families,” Bleiman said in a statement Monday. “However, we hope it might also influence some who have not yet received vaccinations to do so as soon as they are able.”

    Over the weekend, Bleiman said that 85 percent of the Alliance’s members were in support of requiring proof of vaccination for entry. SFist first reported on the survey’s results. Bleiman said that the Alliance believes the only way businesses can return to some level of normalcy if even more people in the Bay Area and beyond get vaccinated.

DO YOU RECALL?

  • Recall election key dates:
    • July 16 5pm: Candidate filing deadline
    • July 19: Randomized alphabet drawing for ballot order
    • July 21: Certified list of candidates and ballot order rotation (by county) 
    • July 31: Ballot mailing to military and overseas voters
    • August 5: First pre-election campaign finance statement
    • August 16: Ballot mailing begins to all registered voters
    • September 2: Second pre-election campaign finance statement
    • September 14: Election Day
  • Poll position: In the Times, Phil Willon reports on new Berkeley IGS/LAT poll results on the recall. 

    Californians who say they expect to vote in the September recall election are almost evenly divided over whether to remove Gov. Gavin Newsom from office, evidence of how pivotal voter turnout will be in deciding the governor’s political fate, according to a new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times.

    The findings dispel the notion that California’s solid Democratic voter majority will provide an impenetrable shield for Newsom, and reveal a vulnerability created by a recall effort that has energized Republicans and been met with indifference by many Democrats and independent voters.

    The poll found that 47% of likely California voters supported recalling the Democratic governor, compared with 50% who opposed removing Newsom from office — a difference just shy of the survey’s margin of error.

    Conservative talk radio host Larry Elder, who last week won a court battle to appear on the Sept. 14 recall ballot, leads in the race to replace Newsom among the dozens of candidates in the running, while support for reality television star Caitlyn Jenner remains low, the survey found. Forty percent of likely voters remain undecided on a replacement candidate, providing ample opportunity for other gubernatorial hopefuls to rise in the ranks before the Sept. 14 special election.

    I'm still poring over the crosstabs, which were posted around 10am, and will occupy my afternoon (likely voters | registered voters) with the hope of getting some slides out to ATCpro subscribers this evening. 

    Note that this was an all-online poll, which has its advantages and disadvantages. The advantage is that you can present a list of possible successor candidates for voters to see, as they would on a ballot. In this case, they listed Cox, Elder, Faulconer, Gaines, Hewitt, Jenner, Kiley, Ose, and Paffrath. While it's possible to list six names on the phone, it's far from perfect.

    The disadvantage to the all-online poll is that more passionate voters are likely to complete it. While the pollsters sought to adjust for that in weighting, it may not be as accurate as a telephone poll. 

    Some folks on Newsom's side will panic about these results. However, aside from the budget-related events, Newsom hasn't really shaped the positive message yet, yielding the airwaves to the ads from the Stop the Republican Recall of Governor Newsom campaign. Remember, Newsom is sitting on around ~$24 million in his 2022 account. He can, and I expect he will, spend much of the primary portion of that during the weeks of voting that begin August 16. The voters that he needs to soundly defeat the recall probably are not included in the Berkeley IGS poll results.

    If Newsom succeeds in defeating the recall, it will likely be the one-two punch of "no on recall ads" that are currently running and positive ads about his accomplishments.
  • Fundraising: Here are the fundraising numbers for those included in the Berkeley IGS poll. It's important to note that much, if not all, of the $5 million put into his campaign by John Cox was spent on the initial "beast" ads. Elder, the most recent to enter, clearly has the momentum with a national reach accumulated through his radio show and newspaper columns.

Fundraising through 07/27/21

includes only contributions $1,000 or more required to be reported withing 24 hours

John
Cox

Larry
Elder

Kevin Faulconer

Ted
Gaines

Jeff
Hewitt

Caitlyn Jenner

Kevin Kiley

Kevin Paffrath

Candidate

$5,080,843

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$85,000

Non-candidate

$259,300

$704,680

$932,299

$264,300

$56,410

$409,805

$142,770

$47,749

Source: cal-access.sos.ca.gov

EARTH, WIND, AND FIRE:

  • Weather: In the Times, Hayley Smith and Lila Seidman write that the monsoon weather over California is bringing new wildfire threats.

    Changing weather patterns across the state — including a storm system that brought an unusual spate of rain to Southern California on Monday — are creating new conditions for crews to contend with as the fire keeps burning through Butte and Plumas counties.

    The instability of the weather will fuel the fire’s growth, some fear.

    “Sometimes [it’s] quite intense,” said Capt. Tony McHale of the fire’s incident management team, noting that isolated thunderstorms add “an element of unpredictability” to firefighting efforts because of the erratic winds they might bring. “And of course, that presents certain challenges and hazards for people that are on the line.”

    The monsoonal weather that’s building in the region also brings the potential for lightning, which can ignite new fires, officials said. And conditions are ripe for new pyrocumulonimbus clouds to form above the blaze; these can generate their own weather systems that send crews scrambling.

      

Largest Active Fires with Least Containment
  County Cause Acres Consumed Containment Structures Destroyed Fatalities Personnel On Scene Updated
Dixie Fire Butte, Plumas power lines suspected 208,206 23% 31 0 5,105 07/27
08:06
Tamarack Fire Alpine u/i 68,103 54% unknown 0 1,623 07/26
18:03
Notes:

u/i= under investigation 

BOXER ROBBED: Former U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer was assaulted and robbed in downtown Oakland yesterday. Emma Talloy reports for the Chron:

According to a statement from Boxer’s office, the assailant pushed her in the back, stole her cell phone and jumped into a waiting car. She was not seriously injured.

The Oakland Police Department confirmed that at 1:15 p.m., while a victim was walking in the 300 block of Third Street, they were approached by a suspect, who forcefully “took loss from the victim,” and fled into a waiting vehicle. The incident is currently being investigated, and police declined to release the identity of the victim. The area of the assault is near Jack London Square.

The attack took place just hours after Oakland’s top federal and local law enforcement representatives pledged to take a tougher stance against criminals to deter violence at a Monday news conference.

Law enforcement and Asian American community advocates gathered in response to what police described as two “brazen daytime” armed robberies in the same location in Chinatown earlier this month.

Justin Berton, a spokesperson for Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf, said the mayor was “deeply troubled to learn of the assault and robbery of Sen. Boxer today.”

“She spoke with the Senator’s family to extend her well wishes for a speedy recovery and was relieved to learn she was not seriously injured,” he said via email. He added that police are working to collect any surveillance images from the area that will assist in their investigation.

DO UC WHAT I SEE? The LAT's Teresa Watanabe reports on the insufficient available seats for eligible students at most campuses of the University of California.

A troubling undercurrent belies the University of California’s celebratory news that it has admitted the largest and most diverse class ever for fall 2021: There are not enough seats for qualified students at most campuses, a worsening capacity crisis that threatens to break the California promise of a UC education for them.

The space crunch is projected to intensify in the coming years just as the state needs more skilled talent, prompting the new UC Board of Regents chair to announce last week that increasing student enrollment would be one of the board’s top priorities.

UC admitted 132,353 freshman applicants for this fall, an 11% increase over last year. But it was harder to get in at seven of the nine undergraduate campuses compared with last year. More than 71,000 freshman applicants were denied admission, including nearly 44,000 Californians, the overwhelming majority of them eligible for UC admission if past trends are a guide.

The admission rates for California freshman applicants fell to a systemwide average of 65.7%, compared with 70.5% last year and, over a longer horizon, 83.5% in 1995.

The future is even more troubling.

The number of students who meet UC and California State University admission requirements but can’t enroll in a four-year institution because of a shortfall of seats could nearly double from about 73,000 students in 2018-19 to 144,000 by 2030, according to a study by the College Futures Foundation. The study, which found the biggest shortfalls in the Los Angeles region, Inland Empire and Central Valley, did not break down the future shortage of seats by university system.

Watanabe has an interview in a separate article with Cecilia Estolano, the new chair of UC's Board of Regents, who is calling for expansion of enrollment.

As she takes the helm of UC’s governing body this month, Estolano says a top priority will be to expand access to the vaunted public research university system. She’s not yet sure how high enrollment should rise, but she knows when she wants to get started: Now.

“I don’t want to study this for three years,” she said in an interview. “We don’t have the time. The need is now.”

Huntington Beach, cakeday, and classifieds after the jump...

Probolsky Research

 

 

HUNTINGTON BEACH: The Huntington Beach City Council has settled on a candidate to fill the seat left open following the resignation of the controversial MMA fighter-turned-councilmember Tito Ortiz, reports Susan Christian Goulding for the Register.

The political lean of Huntington Beach shifted Monday, when civil rights attorney Rhonda Bolton was named to replace outgoing conservative Tito Ortiz on the city council.

The move came after Mayor Pro Tem Barbara Delgleize unexpectedly announced at a special meeting that she would join three of her colleagues in supporting Bolton. Fifteen minutes later, at 7:45 p.m., Bolton was sworn in.

Bolton is the first Black woman to serve on the council.

Delgleize’s change of heart means the city will not need to hold a special election this November that would have cost taxpayers around $1 million.

CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Sarah Bentley, Erin Dacumos-Khanna, and Max Reyes!

Classifieds

Add your classified now both in The Nooner and online for $50/week or $150/month by emailing scottlay@gmail.com, with a headline, a summary of up to 200 words, and what you'd like the end date to be. You can attach a PDF or provide a link for a bigger job description/info to apply. [Other advertising options]


The Office of Orange County Supervisor Katrina Foley is seeking an experienced Communications Director

The Office of Orange County Supervisor Katrina Foley is seeking an experienced Communications Director. The ideal candidate is a self-starter with excellent written and communication skills with the ability to deliver high quality work under tight deadlines. Knowledge of Orange County & 3-5 years of political experience is preferred.

Responsibilities:

  • Managing press requests
  • Staffing the Supervisor at interviews and media events
  • Drafting content for social media and website
  • Preparing written materials including press releases, speeches, op-eds, talking points, newsletters and e-blasts
  • Determining creative ways to expand the Supervisor’s coverage on key initiatives
  • Working collaboratively with staff to maximize press coverage and visibility at events

Qualifications:

  • BA in a related field (e.g., English or media production), or equivalent work experience
  • Demonstrated track record of managing professional social media accounts
  • Familiar with graphic and video programs, (e.g., Canva and iMovie)
  • Ability to create and turn around content in a short time
  • Experience in working with print, digital, radio, TV bookers and producers

Qualified candidates should submit a cover letter, resume, two writing samples, video sample, and professional references to Debbie Lumpkin at Debbie.Lumpkin@ocgov.com with the title “Communications Director” in the subject line. No calls or walk-ins.

OVERLAND STRATEGIES - Account Executive

Overland Strategies is a Democratic political consulting firm. We create high quality direct mail and digital ads and provide strategic advice and general consulting services to Democratic candidates and progressive causes.

About the Job:
Overland is looking to hire an Account Executive to help support clients with strategic communications and general consulting services. The Account Executive will work directly with Overland’s Partners to write press releases and political communications, and generally support candidate campaigns. There will be opportunities to learn and practice all elements of political consulting. This is a full-time employee position. Overland will provide reimbursement for health insurance, cell phone costs, and work-related expenses. Work will be usually be remote, with the exception of occasional in-person meetings and campaign events. This is a job for someone who loves persuasive writing and progressive campaigns. To apply, send a resume and three writing samples to press@overland-strategies.com.

CAPITOL SEMINARS’ ADVANCED COURSES: BUDGET ADVOCACY & "SO YOU THINK YOU WANT TO SPONSOR A BILL" OFFERED VIA ZOOM

Taught by 46-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov. Capitol Seminars is your No.1 lobbying advocacy training resource. Advanced courses focusing on the fundamentals of budget advocacy and the detailed aspects of sponsoring a bill. Next Zoom session is Thursday, July 29th. “So You Think…”: 9am–12pm ($225). Budget: 12:30pm – 2:30pm ($175). *$50 Off when you register for both sessions. Seats are limited. Reservations: (916) 837-0208. Further information: https://conta.cc/3AUOaxE

Miller & Olson LLP Seeks Political Reports Specialist

Miller & Olson LLP is seeking a Political Reports Specialist for its downtown Sacramento office. The Specialist position is responsible for administering the books for candidates, political action committees, as well as non-profit organizations. Specifically, the position requires bookkeeping and administering client bank accounts, preparing and filing campaign finance reports and communicating timely financial information to clients. For more information and to apply, click here: https://www.millerpoliticallaw.com/miller-olson-llp-is-hiring/.

AARON READ & ASSOCIATES OFFICE SPACE FOR RENT

Since some of us at ARA like partial remote working and less office time, we have some additional Office Space for rent.

Stunningly beautiful offices on the 11th Floor of the Meridian at 1415 L St, full of original art work. Beautifully furnished with cherry desks and credenzas.

Floor-to-ceiling widows, great views, access to two conference rooms, including one very large with a panoramic view of the Capitol.

Access to a large kitchen and work room. 1-3 offices could be available. Parking is also available, but additional.

Aaron Read & Associates, call Aaron 916-425-2260

The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific

In addition to a well-respected JD, the McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees. Both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working succeed in the program. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a foundation in statutory interpretation and skills in public policy making and implementation. Learn at a beautiful campus three miles from the State Capitol:
go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy

McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific

Built on the foundation of nationally ranked and world class programs, McGeorge School of Law offers an online master (MSL) degree for individuals seeking in depth knowledge of law and policy, but who do not require a traditional law degree. Our MSL’s two concentrations in Government Law & Policy and in Water & Environmental Law offer students the flexibility to work while they learn and still engage in a highly interactive master’s program. To learn more and to sign up for our monthly webinars, please visit our website, Online.McGeorge.edu, or contact us at graduatelaw@pacific.edu.

Political Data Inc.
For 30 Years PDI has been California’s premier data vendor. Now, you can get live online trainings on the newest PDI software every week: