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RECENT PODS:

  • Inside Golden State Politics (Bill Boyarsky and Sherry Jeffe): Rodney King To George Floyd: Can Reform Save The Day? (2021-04-25)
  • SacTown Talks (Jarheet Blonien): Shawnda Westly on MICRA (medical malpractice limits) (2021-04-23)
  • KQED's Political Breakdown (Scott Shafer and Marisa Lagos): Susan Page on Nancy Pelosi's "Lessons of Power" (2021-04-22)
  • Then There's California (Senate Democratic Caucus): Senator Dave Cortese (2021-01-22)
  • Capitol Weekly Podcast (John Howard and Tim Foster): GOP political consultant Matt Rexroad on redistricting and the recall. (2021-01-18)
  • If I Could Change One Thing (SDSU School of Public Health): Dr. Monica Gandhi, Professor of Medicine and Associate Chief of the Division of HIV, Infectious Diseases, and Global Medicine at San Francisco General Hospital / UCSF on when/if mask mandates will go away. (2021-04-07)
  • California State of Mind (CapRadio): California Prepares for Wildfire; Disparity in Covid Deaths Highlight Need for Vaccine Equity (2021-04-16)

CLASSIFIEDS BELOW:

  • The Breakthrough Institute is seeking a Press Secretary (Berkeley)
  • Capitol Weekly presents A Conference on Housing Policy
  • New Sacramento-based thriller
  • Golden State Opportunity: Director of Operations, Director of Development and a Northern CA Coordinator
  • Exclusive Downtown Penthouse Near Capitol Building
  • Associate Position at CleanSweep Campaigns, San Francisco
  • McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific - MPA/MPP
  • McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific - Masters of Science in Law

DOING THE LAUNDRY: Highlights from yesterday's online campaign finance filings that shows big money passing through party committees and can subsequently be given to candidates above individual contribution limits if not directed as such.

  • The Democratic Party of Orange County reports receiving $25,000 from the United Domestic Workers Of America Action Fund Small Contributor Committee 

RECALL WATCH: Significant reported contributions relating to the effort to recall Gavin Newsom and elect a successor.

The Nooner for Tuesday, April 27, 2021, presented by SYASL Partners

Happy Taco Tuesday! The shoulder continues to be a problem, leading to not much sleep last night. It's 5am and I have an Icy Hot patch on it. Fortunately, my hand is not numb this time around so I can type and pick up my tea mug unlike the last spell. Hopefully it stays that way.

The Giants and Dodgers are now tied for first place in the NL West. Let the chest pounding commence... As I've written before, I'm the rare fan of both teams. I grew up bleeding Dodger Blue and had classmates who were sons and daughters of Dodgers. Meanwhile, when I moved to Davis for undergrad, I would have been suffocated in the middle of the night by my roomies if I didn't learn to cheer for the orange and black.

DO YOU RECALL? Yesterday, the Secretary of State reported that sufficient signatures have been collected to trigger a recall election of Gavin Newsom. Counties have until Thursday to finish validating and voters have until June 8 to request through county elections offices to have their names removed, after which counties have until June 22 to report the number of withdrawn signatures. 

Assuming there are still sufficient signature, the Department of Finance has 30 days to develop a cost estimate of the election in consultation with counties. That estimate is then sent to the Joint Legislative Budget Committee, which has 30 business days to review and comment on the estimate. Thus, the Lieutenant Governor will call the recall election between 60 and 80 days. Thus, we are looking at the election taking place in late October through early November.

In the Times, George Skelton writes:

Here comes the circus — with clowns, ring masters and trained politicians.

The recall circus is headed our way and there’ll be lots of performers, maybe even bringing some entertainment.

But it’s looking less compelling than the last recall circus 18 years ago, when Hollywood action hero Arnold Schwarzenegger — the “Terminator” — leaped in and stole the show. The centrist Republican got himself elected governor, and Democratic Gov. Gray Davis was tossed out of office.

Also in the Times, Mark Z. Barabak writes that Caitlyn Jenner is no Reagan or Schwarzenegger.

Speaking of Schwarzenegger, he was on Jimmy Kimmel Live last night. He said he is good friends" with both Caitlyn Jenner and Gavin Newsom and plans to not endorse anyone this year.

For Capitol Weekly, John Howard writes:

The time line could be affected by legal challenges and other issues. Barring delays, the recall likely will be held in the late fall. Newsom, who was elected in 2018, faces his scheduled reelection in November next year.

If the recall goes forward, Newsom can be removed by a simple majority vote. The ballot entails a two-step act: If Newsom is voted out, his successor would be chosen from whichever challenging candidate polls the highest, even if that candidate’s tally represents less than a majority of the vote.

Thus far, several Republicans are challenging Newsom. Former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer is on the list, along with reality TV celebrity Caitlyn Jenner and businessman John Cox, an earlier unsuccessful candidate for governor.

REAPPORTIONMENT: In a report yesterday, the Census Bureau released data on the reapportionment of congressional districts. As expected, California is losing one -- barely. Birthday boy Paul Mitchell emails:

52, by the skin of our teeth.

The U.S. Census Bureau released apportionment figures moments ago, and that sound you hear is a collective sigh of resignation as elected official and politicos accept something they have been hearing for years, an expected loss of congressional and electoral power in the Golden State for the first time since earning statehood.

This doesn’t just impact Congress – it also means that California loses an Electoral College vote. Around the country, we see a shift of 6 Electoral College votes from Democratic states to Republicans. The estimates had Republicans gaining 10 Electoral College votes.

California has not lost a congressional district in any decennial reapportionment since gaining statehood and 2010 was the first reapportionment that California’s share of Congress, and the Electoral College, didn’t increase.

...

It isn’t as bad as it could have been, but losing a seat will still clearly sting.

The U.S. population, based on the 2020 decennial census, comes in at 331,449,281, a 7.4% increase in population since the 2010 Census.

This is higher than the American Community Survey (ACS), which was just released in February. As was discussed in Friday's Redistricting Report, these are different datasets with different methodologies, so this discrepancy is not a surprise.

For California, this year’s ACS put its population at 39,283,497, so the announced decennial census figure is higher than the estimates.

One thing this doesn’t tell us is how the data within each state looks.  There are demographic changes we know are happening due to the American Community Survey estimates, but how well will the census capture those underlying demographic changes will be extremely important. Many states have seen massive shifts toward cities as metropolitan centers grow, while others have seen more growth out to the suburbs and exurbs.  These intrastate shifts will have more to do with how districts look, and we won’t have that data until mid-August at the earliest.

Paul looks at how California's outreach encouraging Census completion and how Florida and Texas missed the mark by not providing a similar outreach effort to underserved communities.

The data provided yesterday was just state totals and thus it is unknown where a seat will be lost in redistricting. The Bay Area, Sacramento region, and the Inland Empire are unlikely to have congressional districts consolidated. The east area of Los Angeles county may see the biggest population decline.

Now the question is who's voted off the island. Grace Napolitano (D-Norwalk) has been on retirement watch for three cycles, but returned to the House following the death of her husband, Frank Torres. While Nancy Pelosi is unlikely to run again as she promised in the 2019 race for Speaker of the House that she would only serve in that role for two additional terms and it's rare that a former Speaker stays in the House. That'll be a fun race. Pelosi succeeded Sala Burton and has served since 1987 following Sala's service for four years succeeding husband Phillip Burton's death in 1983. Phillip's brother John Burton served in the House from 1974 to 1983 in between two stints in the State Assembly before election to the State Senate in 1996 and serving as Senate President f'ing Pro Tem.

That said, San Francisco has declined in population in recent years. The city would likely dominate a strongly Democratic congressional district, which may stretch across either the Golden Gate or Bay bridges, as in the Phillip, John, and Sala Burton days, or south into San Mateo County. Obviously, that could be a problem for Jackie Speier, who represents San Mateo County and lives just south of San Francisco near SFO in Hillsborough. If combined into a seat, San Francisco politicians would dominate, but of course would lead to a fierce race. South would save a lot of business-claimed $7.70 Golden Gate Bridge fares (FasTrak).

Marin County is notoriously slow growth, so a redraw to the north is unlikely.

Kim Bojórquez reports for The Bee:

Drafts of district maps will be released between November or December of this year. Final district maps are due to California’s secretary of state by February 2022.

It’s unclear whether district maps will be finalized as candidates file to run for office in the June primary election next year.

[Commissioner Sara] Sadhwani said it’s too early to tell which congressional districts will be changed or impacted as it awaits the release of further data from the Census Bureau.

“We will be looking at census data throughout the state, but also in conjunction with testimony from communities on the ground,” she said. “Until we have both of those data points, we will be able to tell exactly where a seat will be lost or changed or transformed.”

ATTORNEY GENERAL: The Bee's Lara Korte looks at Sacramento County DA Anne Marie Schubert bid for state Attorney General.

Surrounded by families of crime victims, Sacramento County’s district attorney on Monday launched her candidacy for California attorney general while slamming Democratic leaders’ progressive policies on law and order.

“The newly appointed attorney general has voted for and supported policies and laws that are not only destroying the rights of crime victims, but are destroying public safety in this state,” Schubert said referencing Attorney General Rob Bonta, who was sworn in Friday.

“Here is the truth: California’s criminal justice system is in chaos.”

Schubert, known for prosecuting one of the state’s most notorious serial killers, is trying something no candidate has accomplished in recent memory: She wants to win statewide office in California as an independent rather than as a Democrat or as a Republican.

COVID-19, more issues, cakeday, and classifieds after the jump...

COVID-19: California counties reported an additional 30 deaths yesterday for a total of 61,130 since the pandemic began. In the LAT, Luke Money and Rong-Gong Lin II report that California now has the lowest rate of new cases in the country.

Months after a coronavirus surge sickened hundreds of thousands of people, left thousands dead and pushed hospitals to their breaking point, California’s virus case rate is now the lowest of any state in the nation, federal figures show.

Although the distinction doesn’t lessen the heavy toll exacted by the fall-and-winter wave, it does demonstrate the tremendous strides the state has made in its fight against the COVID-19 pandemic — progress that, to this point, has not been interrupted even as the state more widely reopens its economy.

California’s latest seven-day rate of new cases was 32.5 per 100,000 people, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

-data dive: California's 7-day positivity rate is currently 1.2%, far below the 7.1% peak amidst mass testing on December 30 and the lowest of the pandemic.

-vaccines:

  • vaccine doses administered in California: 28,398,915 (not the number of people vaccinated because of the two-dose Moderna and Pfizer vaccines)
  • vaccine doses delivered to California: 35,058,910

-variants: From the California Department of Public Health:

  • "UK strain": B.1.1.7 variants are associated with approximately 50% increased transmission, and likely with increased disease severity and risk of death. Appears to have minimal impact on the effectiveness of treatments with antibodies.
  • "South Africa strain" B.1.351 variants are associated with approximately 50% increased transmission. May have moderately decreased response to antibody treatments.
  • "Brazil strain": P.1 variants may have moderately decreased response to some antibody treatments.
  • "West Coast strain"": B.1.427 and B.1.429 are associated with approximately 20% increased transmission. There is significantly reduced efficacy of some antibody treatments.

Here are the variants of concern in California. Remember that this is just from 38,408 samples of the 3.6+ million cases in California.

Known Variants of Concern in California
As of April 21, 2021

Variant  Number of Cases Caused by Variant 
B.1.1.7   2,524
B.1.351    55
P.1    246
B.1.427   4,822
B.1.429   9,334

You can view a US map by strain prevalence on the CDC site. Note that, like the numbers above, this map is case numbers of a sample, and not a case rate. Obviously, California will have higher counts, but that doesn't translate into a higher case rate of the variant.

-tiers for fears: As a reminder, any county must remain at a tier for three weeks before progressing to a less-restrictive tier, even if the metrics continue to improve. The most recent changes are bolded and italicized.

Here's where the counties stand after today's changes bolded and italicized.

  • No county in the Purple (widespread) Tier.
  • 21 counties in the Red (substantial) Tier: Amador, Del Norte, Glenn, Inyo, Kern, Lake, Madera, Merced, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, San Luis Obispo, Shasta, Solano, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, and Yuba.
  • 33 counties in Orange (moderate) Tier: Alameda, Butte, Calaveras, Colusa, Contra Costa, El Dorado, Fresno, Humboldt, Imperial, Kern, Kings, Lake, Los Angeles, Marin, Mono, Napa, Mariposa, Mendocino, Modoc, Monterey, Orange, Plumas, Riverside, San Benito, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Barbara, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, Siskiyou, Sonoma, Trinity, Tulare, Tuolumne, Ventura, and Yolo.
  • 3 counties in Yellow (minimal) Tier: Alpine, Lassen, and Sierra.

Statewide tiers map

more issues, cakedays, and classifieds after the jump...

Probolsky Research

POLICING: At 1:30 today, Senate Judiciary will hear SB 2, the bill authored by senators Steven Bradford (D-Gardena) and Toni Atkins (D San Diego) to eliminate qualified immunity for police officers and require the reporting of an officer terminated by an agency to a state board. A similar bill died on the Assembly Floor last year. The bill is supported by a broad coalition of social justice organizations but opposed by numerous law enforcement associations.=

Also up this afternoon in Judish is SB 550 (Dahle) to apply employment laws mandated of private employers to staff of the Legislature. Like the bills to allow legislative employees to collectively bargain, the bill will quietly die -- likely in Senate Approps.

RENT: For CalMatters, Manuela Tobias reports on how California's eviction protections are (and aren't) working.

A state law passed in January extended eviction protections for tenants through June 30, as long as tenants show they lost their income due to COVID-19 and pay a quarter of what they owe.

The law also allocates a whopping $2.6 billion in federal money for rent relief.

...

With the eviction moratorium set to expire in two months, the verdict is still out on the biggest rent relief program in the country. But legislators and tenant and landlord groups who complained about the 11th-hour compromise worked out by Gov. Gavin Newsom and legislative leaders say their biggest fears are coming true.

“I am very concerned about tenants who sacrificed everything to pay the rent but went into extreme debt,” said Assemblymember David Chiu, a Democrat from San Francisco who helped craft the original eviction moratorium last year as the economy cratered during the pandemic. “How we assist those individuals is something that (the new law) did not contemplate.”

UNEMPLOYMENT: For the Times, Patrick McGreevy reports on the unemployment insurance committed by prisoners.

A California task force formed five months ago to investigate fraudulent unemployment claims involving incarcerated people said Monday that there have so far been 68 arrests and it has opened 1,641 other inquiries.

The report by the statewide task force comes after local prosecutors warned that potentially tens of thousands of fraudulent claims have been filed involving people in prison and jail that could total $2 billion.

Gov. Gavin Newsom announced in November that he was asking state officials to form a task force with federal prosecutors and county district attorneys who had already begun investigating improper claims filed in the names of people behind bars, including those on death row.

Yup, I was a victim last year when somebody filed in my name at my Dad's address in Placentia. I haven't lived there for 27 years.

RECYCLING: For CapRadio, Scott Rodd reports on a bill to clean up California's often-understood curbside recycling.

“Twenty to 40% percent of what ends up in somebody's curbside bin has a chance of being landfilled,” said Jeff Donlevy, general manager with Ming’s Recycling in Sacramento. “And a lot of it has to do with mislabeling and contamination of materials.”

Consumers misunderstanding the triangular, “chasing arrows” symbol is partly to blame. California lawmakers are taking on this issue with a proposal they call "Truth in Labeling For Recyclable Materials."

Senate Bill 343 would tighten when the chasing arrows symbol can be used, in an effort to help clean up the recycling stream. It would task CalRecycle with publishing a list of feasibly recyclable materials, and only those products can carry the logo.

“We’re basically trying to create some truth in advertising here,” said Sen. Ben Allen (D–Santa Monica), who authored the bill. “People simply don't have the basic information [to determine] whether an item ought to be put into the blue bin or into the trash bin.”

BOARD DIVERSITY: The Bee's Kim Bojórquez writes that the new law calling for more diversity of corporate boards is not having the intended effect for Latinos.

The number of Latinos serving on California corporate boards of directors trails far behind other groups despite a recent law mandating that publicly traded companies diversify their leadership, according to a new report.

Latinos, who represent the state’s largest ethnic group, make up 2.3% of board room seats, according to an analysis of 678 public companies headquartered in California by the Latino Corporate Directors Association.

The report shows that whites continue to make up the majority of board seats, holding 81% of the positions. Asian Americans have 10.9% of the seats, and Blacks make up 4% of California corporate directors.

“It is unfortunate,” said Kathy Jurado Munoz, vice president of advocacy and demand at the Latino Corporate Directors Association. “California is not showing us the numbers that we would have liked to have seen.”

SACTOWN: In The Bee, Tony Bizjak and Molly Sullivan report on the growing Sacramento suburbs and declining population of the urban core.

Urban living in Sacramento and Northern California has seriously lost luster in the last year. Suburbia and the rural hill country are trending.

That’s the verdict from new data charting who moved where in the Sacramento region during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Sacramento’s new-edge suburban cities – notably Roseville and Folsom, as well as some foothill enclaves and mountain resorts – saw an influx of arrivals in 2020, according to new U.S. Postal Service change of address data.

At the same time, central Sacramento neighborhoods, including downtown, lost population.

SURFS UP! The Register has some awesome photos of the ginormous waves over the weekend at The Wedge in Newport Beach. Jaime O'Brien posted a video of the epic weekend on YouTube.

CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Brian Augusta, Carla Marinucci, and Paul Mitchell!

Classifieds

Add your classified now both in The Nooner and online for $50/week or $150/month by emailing scottlay@gmail.com, with a headline, a summary of up to 200 words, and what you'd like the end date to be. You can attach a PDF or provide a link for a bigger job description/info to apply. [Other advertising options]


CAPITOL SEMINARS’ INVALUABLE LOBBYING 101 COURSE OFFERED VIA ZOOM

Taught by 46-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov. Provides comprehensive coverage of California’s Legislative process, along with touch points and best practices you need to know for effective Legislative advocacy. Send your new lobbyists, support staff, legislative committee members, executives who hire and manage lobbyists. Capitol Seminars is the No.1 training resource for nonprofits and private sector organizations, lobbying firms, trade associations, state and local government entities. Next Zoom session is Tuesday, May 25th, 8:30am-1:30pm. Seats are limited. Reservations: (916) 837-0208. Further information: www.capitolseminars.net

Join the California Manufacturers & Technology Association Team!

Are you a legislative advocate? Know someone passionate about improving policies for manufacturers? Do they have 4+ years of government affairs experience with emphasis on legislative, regulatory and/or commercial environment? CMTA’s exciting and fast-paced State Government Relations team is searching for a Policy Director. Subject-matter expertise in energy, environment and/or workforce issues preferred. Apply here! cmta.net/job_post.php

The Breakthrough Institute is seeking a Press Secretary (Berkeley)

Are you a savvy communications professional with ecomodernist ideals? Are you an effective communicator and strong writer with a passion for solving humanity’s biggest challenges? The Breakthrough Institute, a Berkeley-based research center, is looking for a new Press Secretary to expand our reach in the media and build connections with journalists, reporters, and newsroom editors. The Press Secretary will develop, implement, and assist in guiding media and digital strategies rooted in climate, energy, food, and agriculture with an ecomodernist emphasis. Please visit our website for a detailed job description and application instructions.

The position is in Berkeley, although remote until later in 2021.

Capitol Weekly presents A Conference on Housing Policy

Join us for an informative update on California’s Housing Crisis. For years, the Golden State has had the highest home prices in the US, one of the lowest rates of home-ownership, and the most people living on the streets – now, the COVID-19 pandemic has made the situation even worse. Three panels of experts, insiders and elected officials will discuss the status of the state’s Housing Crisis and the policy solutions being proposed to help solve it.

This event will be hosted on ZOOM from 9AM – 1:45PM, Wednesday, May 26. There is no cost to attend, but registration is required. Attend one panel, or the whole day!

NEW SACRAMENTO-BASED THRILLER!

SET IN SACRAMENTO, ALL THAT FALL is "a white-knuckled, character-driven thriller, at once twisty and full of heart." In this first in a new series from award-winning author KRIS CALVIN, Investigator Emma Lawson has just 48-hours to stop a killer whose plans for revenge include upending California's government. "The story reads as if it happened. Emma and the rest of the cast will hook you." ORDER NOW from Amazon or your favorite bookstore at www.kriscalvin.com. Available in hardback, ebook & audiobook.

Golden State Opportunity is looking for a Director of Operations, Director of Development and a Northern CA Coordinator.

These are exciting opportunities for the right person who wants to build their own teams, establish a foundation for a rapidly growing organization with national political ambitions and wants to make a significant impact in ending poverty as we know it. Please review the job descriptions, with salary ranges, at Careers at GSO.

The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific

In addition to a well-respected JD, the McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees. Both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working succeed in the program. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a foundation in statutory interpretation and skills in public policy making and implementation. Learn at a beautiful campus three miles from the State Capitol:
go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy

McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific

Built on the foundation of nationally ranked and world class programs, McGeorge School of Law offers an online master (MSL) degree for individuals seeking in depth knowledge of law and policy, but who do not require a traditional law degree. Our MSL’s two concentrations in Government Law & Policy and in Water & Environmental Law offer students the flexibility to work while they learn and still engage in a highly interactive master’s program. To learn more and to sign up for our monthly webinars, please visit our website, Online.McGeorge.edu, or contact us at graduatelaw@pacific.edu.

Political Data Inc.
For 30 Years PDI has been California’s premier data vendor. Now, you can get live online trainings on the newest PDI software every week: