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The Nooner for Friday, January 1, 2021, presented by SYASL Partners
A long December and there's reason to believe
|
Daily Deaths Reported | |
Saturday, 12/26 | 36 |
Sunday, 12/27 | 235 |
Monday, 12/28 | 64 |
Tuesday, 12/29 | 442 |
Wednesday, 12/30 | 424 |
Thursday, 12/31 | 573 |
Daily average | 296 |
We'll look at the 14-day averages throughout 2020 below.
Source: California Department of Public Health, COVID-19 state dashboard
Here's an update of the numbers for LA County with a smoothing out average of the last eight days:
Los Angeles County reports | ||
Cases | Deaths | |
Thursday, 12/24 | 13,678 | 148 |
Friday, 12/25 | no report* | no report* |
Saturday, 12/26 | 29,464 | 142 |
Sunday, 12/27 | 13,580 | 44 |
Monday, 12/28 | 13,661 | 73 |
Tuesday, 12/29 | 12,979 | 227 |
Wednesday, 12/30 | 10,392 | 274 |
Thursday, 12/31 | 15,129 | 290 |
Daily average | 13,610 | 150 |
*no report was provided because of a Spectrum internet service outage; reports carried forward |
Of course, as we've talked about frequently in this space, deaths are a lagging indicator. The leading indicators are positivity rates and testing and the resulting number of new confirmed cases. Let's look at each of them with data through yesterday.
Positivity rate and number of tests (14-day rolling average):
New confirmed cases (14-day rolling average):
Then we have the current indicators, hospitalizations and ICU hospitalizations.
Hospitalizations (14-day rolling average):
ICU hospitalizations (14-day rolling average):
-The kids: In the Los Angeles County Public Health release yesterday, the spread among younger folks like those partying in my neighborhood last night, is fueling community transmission and the numbers are staggering:
Younger residents continue to drive increases in community transmission in the county. At the beginning of the current surge on November 1, there were 463 cases a day among residents between the ages of 30 and 49 years old. By December 22, there were 4,419 cases a day among residents in this age group; an increase of about 950%. The next group driving increases are young adults between the ages of 18 and 29 years old. When the surge began, there were 303 cases a day among adults between the ages of 18 and 29 years old. On December 22, there were 3,072 cases a day; a nearly 1,000% increase
Indeed, those without an underlying health condition are less likely to have a fatal case of COVID-19. However, they are still spreaders.
Statewide, 58.5% of cases and 7% of deaths have been between 18 and 49 years old.
-New strain: There are now three additional confirmed cases of the new strain of SARS-CoV-2 in San Diego County, the virus that can lead to the COVID-19 disease. The new strain was first identified in the UK. Paul Sisson reports in the SDUT:
Officials said none of the four are related and had no contact with each other before testing positive.
The three additional cases confirmed Thursday were all men. Case investigators have interviewed two of the three who reported no recent travel outside the country. Two of the three new cases were in their 40s and the third was in his 50s. The third case for whom travel information was not available had not yet been interviewed.
They live in La Mesa, Otay Mesa, Mission Beach and the Rancho Bernardo-Carmel Mountain area.
The county public health lab was still awaiting the results of genetic testing to confirm whether a close contact of Wednesday’s first UK strain subject, who was said to have been experiencing symptoms of coronavirus infection, also has the UK strain.
...
Having cases from different parts of the county that did not know each other, [Dr. Eric McDonald, medical director of the county’s epidemiology department] said, shows that this strain, which is thought to spread more easily than other variants, has been among us for some time.
“This didn’t just spread to that many different parts of the county among people who don’t know each other in the past two weeks,” McDonald said. “The dispersal of these cases geographically tells you that it has probably been in the county for a longer period of time.”
San Diego also had a record number of reported deaths yesterday with 62.
-Vaccines: A team at the Times reports that many front-line health care workers who are first in line to receive a vaccine are declining to take it.
So many frontline workers in Riverside County have refused the vaccine — an estimated 50% — that hospital and public officials met to strategize how best to distribute the unused doses, Public Health Director Kim Saruwatari said.
The vaccine doubts swirling among healthcare workers across the country come as a surprise to researchers, who assumed hospital staff would be among those most in tune with the scientific data backing the vaccines.
The scientific evidence is clear regarding the safety and efficacy of the vaccines after trials involving tens of thousands of participants, including elderly people and those with chronic health conditions. The shots are recommended for everyone except those who have had a severe allergic reaction to any of the ingredients.
Still, skepticism remains.
...
The extent to which healthcare workers are refusing the vaccine is unclear, but reports of lower-than-expected participation rates are emerging around the country, raising concerns for epidemiologists who say the public health implications could be disastrous.
A recent survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation found that 29% of healthcare workers were “vaccine hesitant,” a figure slightly higher than the percentage of the general population, 27%.
...
The consequences are potentially dire: If too few people are vaccinated, the pandemic will stretch on indefinitely, leading to future surges, excessive strain on the healthcare system and ongoing economic fallout.
-Regional stay-at-home:
--documents and updates:
--Update on 12/03 with Governor Newsom and HHS Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly:
--Update on 12/07:
--Dr. Ghaly update on 12/08:
--Governor Newsom update on 12/18:
--Governor Newsom update on 12/28:
--Dr. Ghaly update on 12/29:
--Governor Newsom update on 12/30 (K-6 school reopening):
--Governor Newsom and Dr. Fauci on 12/30:
--the regions: Here are the regions with the latest ICU capacity (available physical beds and necessary staffing). The benchmark to avoid falling under the stay-at-home order is 15% capacity. Today provides bad news for the Greater Sacramento Region, which has dropped again below 15% the day before the four-week ICU capacity look-ahead could first be considered by the state.
No new regional data as of 11:25am 01/01.
--Greater Sacramento: In yesterday's press release from the California Department of Public Health, there was this nugget:
Even if the state lifted stay-at-home order for the region, it is likely that Sacramento County would stick with its local order that incorporates the same restrictions and remains effective until amended or repealed.
-tiers for fears: There were no changes to county tier assignments yesterday.
-enforcement: A Costa Mesa bar owner faces misdemeanor charges after repeatedly ignoring the county's health order, writes Sean Emery in the Register.
Roland Michael Barrera, owner of the Westend Bar, faces a misdemeanor count of violating and neglecting to obey a lawful order and regulation. Luiza Giulietta Mauro, a bar manager, was charged with a misdemeanor count of resisting a police officer, court records show.
Police, code enforcement officials and state alcohol beverage control agents have gone out to the Westend Bar “numerous times” since an emergency order went into effect on Nov. 19 requiring that non-essential businesses close between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m., according to a statement by the Orange County District Attorney’s Office.
The Westend Bar on “multiple occasions” hosted 50 to 70 patrons without requiring them to socially distance or wear facial coverings, prosecutors said.
They also allege that around 11 p.m. on Dec. 12, Mauro grabbed a uniformed police officer to prevent him from entering the bar.
In legal parlance, that is flat out stupid.
Ya know, there's a state agency department that can also step in.
-morgues and funeral homes: In the LAT, a team reports on the very sad impact in Los Angeles County of the high daily death rates.
A months-long surge of coronavirus cases in Los Angeles County is reaching its grim if inevitable zenith as deaths reach once-unthinkable levels, medical infrastructure is buckling under a flood of patients and officials fear the mortality numbers will only worsen in the coming weeks.
...
The sheer number of fatalities is causing more challenges to already overwhelmed hospitals and other institutions. Many hospital morgues are now filled with bodies, and officials are trying to move them for temporary storage at the county medical examiner-coroner’s office.
Mortuary and funeral home operators say they are having to turn away bereaved families because they don’t have the capacity to handle more bodies.
cakeday and classifieds after the jump...
CAKEDAY: No Nooner birthdays that I know about today!
The California Psychological Association (CPA) is seeking a Director of Government Affairs. The Director of Government Affairs will report to the Chief Executive Officer and will be responsible for planning and managing the government affairs and advocacy efforts of CPA. This will include providing the primary analysis of proposed legislation to assess its impact on psychology, psychologists, and patients; serving as the primary contact for CPA with the California legislature and relevant government agencies; working with state regulators on policy issues; serving as CPA’s primary contact for health care provider advocacy groups , coalitions and stakeholders, and community providers; providing advocacy expertise and recommendations to the CPA Board of Directors , Local Advocacy Network, and CPA members, and the CPA PAC.
Link to full job description and to apply: https://www.cpapsych.org/resource/resmgr/advocacy_and_lan/CPADirOfGovAffairsPosition.pdf
Homeless Coordinating and Financing Council Division
Monthly salary: $8,173.00- $9,280.00
Application Deadline: Tuesday, December 22, 2020.
Expert in grant management directs all operations of grant programs, including developing and delivering public facing interactions with eligible grantees to provide technical guidance and evaluating data related to grant programs for the purpose of reporting and influencing statewide policy.
For more information about this position and to apply online please visit: https://jobs.ca.gov/CalHrPublic/Jobs/JobPosting.aspx?JobControlId=225782
For questions contact:
Debbie Gutman
CPS HR Consulting
dgutman@cpshr.us
Built on the foundation of nationally ranked and world class programs, McGeorge School of Law offers an online master (MSL) degree for individuals seeking in depth knowledge of law and policy, but who do not require a traditional law degree. Our MSL’s two concentrations in Government Law & Policy and in Water & Environmental Law offer students the flexibility to work while they learn and still engage in a highly interactive master’s program. To learn more and to sign up for our monthly webinars, please visit our website, Online.McGeorge.edu, or contact us at graduatelaw@pacific.edu.
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You will work in partnership with regional Resource and Referral (R&R) hub agencies throughout the state of CA to nurture and build out the partnerships of Regional Hubs and their local R&R partners. This position will focus on expanding regional and local relationships and building regional strategies for the delivery of early childhood services, including Parent Café and Early Childhood Café programs, throughout California, and will also coordinate the development of other regional partners including California Quality Consortia, California County Offices of Education and Tribal partners appropriate to each region. Reporting to the Chief Strategy Officer, this position utilizes a high level of collaboration and relationship building to create effective internal and external relationships, communicate the CCRC Mission, Values and Vision to external stakeholders, and work in collaboration with other CCRC Departments and organizational partners.