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RECENT PODS:

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  • Look West Podcast (Assembly Democratic Caucus): The progression of the Transgender community with Human Rights Activist Ebony Ava Harper and Assemblymember Rebecca Bauer-Kahan (D-Orinda) (2020-11-13)
  • SacTown Talks (Jarhett Blonien): Assembly member Dr. Joaquin Arambula (D-Fresno) Apple Podcasts | YouTube (2020-11-13)
  • Capitol Weekly Podcast: A Post-Mortem on the 2020 Election (5 subject area panel discussions) (2020-11-12)
  • Inside Golden State Politics (Bill Boyarsky and Sherry Jeffe): Biden In Charge. California In the Spotlight. Trump In Trouble? (2020-11-12)
  • If I Could Change One Thing (Gary Rotto @ SDSU): Dr. Andrea Dooley, SDSU VP of Student Affairs and Campus Diversity on what the campus is doing to support students during COVID-19 (2020-11-12)

The Nooner for Thursday, November 19, 2020, presented by SYASL Partners

  • Election 2020
    • CA10 (San Joaquin-Stanislaus)
  • COVID-19
    • the numbers
    • the spike
    • tiers for fears
    • carrot/stick?
    • workplaces
    • LA
  • Water and environment
  • Cakeday and classifieds

On November 30, which is the final day of the legislative session, I'll be saluting legislators who are termed-out or otherwise leaving. Additionally, that's when I will be thanking retirees for their service. I need your help with that. If you know of folks who have retired in this year of no retirement parties, please send them to me.

Hello there and happy Thursday! This afternoon, I'm "sitting down" with my friend Carlton Larson, UC Davis professor of constitutional law and legal history for the first Nooner Conversations after the craziness around the election. I have another one scheduled for Monday with Alex Lee, who will be sworn in next month as the youngest legislator in 80 years and first openly bisexual member.

Yes, I'm favoring Davis in my scheduling. Larson teaches at King Hall and Lee is a past president of Associated Students of UC Davis. ;-)

Carlton and I will be talking about his new book "On Treason: A Citizen's Guide to the Law." The book could not be better timed, but it was not intentionally so. It is a follow-up to his "Trials of Allegiance: Treason, Juries, and the American Revolution" that I discussed with him on the live podcast at Capital Books last December. At that time, he told me that he was finishing up the follow-up. 

ELECTION 2020:  Yesterday, 17 counties added results from 33,378 ballots bringing the statewide total to 17,487,247 voters.

-Tallied turnout: 79% of registered voters

-Possible turnout: Around 80% of registered voters, depending on validity of provisionals and conditional voter registration provisionals and any ballots postmarked by Election Day and received after the last report.

-What's left? From the unprocessed ballots report, updated at 5:00pm yesterday, estimates:

  • Vote-by-mail: 146,037
  • Provisional: 40,419
  • Conditional Voter Registration Provisional: 114,999
  • Other (damaged, write-ins, etc): 29,705
  • Total: 331,160

The actual number of unprocessed ballots is certainly lower, as 20 counties have not updated their totals in more than a week. Fresno, Monterey, San Francisco, Sierra, and Solano have completed their counts.

-Closely watched races: The races in bolded red are consisted still in play. CA21 is unique as Kings County has suspended counting until November 21 because of a COVID exposure. In the other races, the victor is in bold.

  • CA21 (Coalinga-Lemoore-South Bakersfield): David Valadao (R): 82,331; *TJ Cox (D): 80,535 (Diff: 1.2%)
  • CA25 (Santa Clarita-Antelope Valley): *Mike Garcia (R): 168,017, Christy Smith (D): 167,595 (Diff: 0.2%)
  • CA39 (Diamond Bar-Fullerton-Yorba Linda): Young Kim (R): 173,157, *Gil Cisneros (D): 168,942 (Diff: 1.2%)
  • CA48 (Orange County beach cities): Michelle Steel (R): 201,589, *Harley Rouda (D): 193,186 (Diff: 2.2% ⬆️ 0.2%)
  • SD21 (Santa Clarita-Antelope Valley): *Scott Wilk (R): 196,218, Kipp Mueller (D): 189,912 (Diff: 1.6%)
  • SD23 (Rancho Cucamonga-Redlands-Hemet): Rosalicie Ochoa Bogh (R): 219,760 Abigail Medina (D): 198,405 (Diff: 5.0%)
  • SD29 (Diamond Bar-Fullerton): Josh Newman (D): 213,639, *Ling Ling Chang (R): 203,011 (Diff: 2.4%)
  • SD37 (Anaheim Hills-Irvine-OC beach cities): Dave Min (D): 270,331, *John M.W. Moorlach (R): 258,269 (Diff: 2.2%)
  • AD13 (Stockton): Carlos Villapudua (D): 77,922, Kathy Miller (D): 74,190 (Diff: 2.4%)
  • AD74 (OC Beach Cities-Costa Mesa-Irvine): *Cottie Petrie-Norris (D): 133,515, Diane Dixon (R): 130,942 (Diff: 1.0%) 

*=incumbent

As it currently stands (this changes with lead changes):

  • California congressional delegation: 42 Democrats, 11 Republicans (R+4 from 2018 -- CA21, CA25CA39, and CA48, while retaining the CA50 vacancy).
  • The State Senate: 31 Democrats, 9 Republicans (D+2 -- SD29, SD37).
  • The State Assembly: 60 Democrats, 19 Republicans (R+1 -- AD38), and one NPP (AD42)

Here are the current ballot measure results, which will likely reflect the final results. All ballot measures have been called by the Associated Press.

Proposition 14 (stem cell bond) 51.0%
Proposition 15 (split roll property tax) 48.0%
Proposition 16 (affirmative action ban repeal) 42.8%
Proposition 17 (voting: parole) 58.6%
Proposition 18 (voting: primary for 17yos) 44.0%
Proposition 19 (property tax base transfer) 51.1%
Proposition 20 (criminal justice) 38.2%
Proposition 21 (rent control) 40.1%
Proposition 22 (transportation network AB 5 exemption) 58.7%
Proposition 23 (dialysis) 36.5%
Proposition 24 (consumer privacy) 56.2%
Proposition 25 (bail referendum - yes upholds SB 10) 43.6%

-CA10 (San Joaquin-Stanislaus): For McClatchy, Kate Irby writes that, like President Trump, the challenger to Rep. Josh Harder (D) is refusing to concede.

Republican Ted Howze was beaten handily by Rep. Josh Harder in the 2020 election.

Even if Howze won all of the remaining votes left to count, he would still fall short of Harder’s lead. But Howze isn’t conceding.

The race for the 10th Congressional district was called in favor of Harder two weeks ago by the Associated Press. As of Wednesday, Harder, D-Turlock, was up by 10 points and 30,000 votes over Howze.

The race for the 10th Congressional district was called in favor of Harder two weeks ago by the Associated Press. As of Wednesday, Harder, D-Turlock, was up by 10 points and 30,000 votes over Howze.

That’s more votes than there are left to count in San Joaquin County and Stanislaus County, the two counties the seat represents. San Joaquin County only has about 12,000 ballots left to count — mainly provisional and damaged ballots — and Stanislaus has between 1,500 and 2,000 left.

After racist posts were found on Howze's Facebook account, the National Republican Congressional Committee dropped him from its list of challengers for pick-ups in the November election.

COVID-19: Yesterday, 109 deaths were added in California for a total of 18,467 since the beginning of the pandemic and 11,109 cases were added for a total of 1,066,251.

-Tiers for Fears: The counties added to a more restrictive tier in the most recent update are bolded and italicized. A county moved to a less restrictive tier in the most recent update are bolded and underlined (none have been). Look up a county here, and learn about the restrictions on each industry here. Counties must have those restrictions as a minimum while many have imposed stricter ones.

Purple
widespread
Red
substantial
Orange
moderate
Yellow
minimal
 AlamedaButteContra CostaEl DoradoFresnoGlenn, Imperial, KernKings, Los Angeles, Madera, MendocinoMerced, Monterey, NapaNevadaOrangePlacer, Riverside, Sacramento, San Benito, San Bernardino, San Diego, San JoaquinSanta BarbaraSan Luis ObispoSanta ClaraSanta Cruz, Shasta, SiskiyouSolano, Sonoma, StanislausSutter, Tehama, TuolumneTrinity, Tulare, VenturaYoloYuba Amador, ColusaDel NorteHumboldt, Lake, MarinModocMonoPlumasSan FranciscoSan Mateo  Calaveras, Inyo, Lassen, Sierra  Alpine, Mariposa 
Look up a county | Restrictions by industry | School restrictions

-The spike: A team at the Times looks at the record number of case increase being set in California.

Coronavirus cases are increasing at a record rate in California as the state works frantically to turn back the tide of new infections.

Over the one-week period that ended Wednesday, the state, on average, recorded more than 10,000 new cases each day — an unprecedented figure that has more than tripled from a month ago, according to a Los Angeles Times analysis.

The state has crossed the 10,000-case threshold four times since last Thursday, including each of the last three days.

California has never experienced sustained daily case counts this high — even during the mid-summer surge, which previously stood as the most expansive and deadliest time of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Though the raw case counts are alarming, in and of themselves, officials say the real concern is that a spike in new infections also tends to hike hospitalizations.
Here is the current picture from the California Department of Public Health. As a reminder, the ICU chart is the lone one in which you don't want to see the trend line down, as that is a decline in bed availability.

COVID hospitalizations by day

-Carrot/stick: As Placer (and perhaps Orange) apparently is not enforcing purple-tier restrictions, more people are asking the question if the state is enforcing the withholding of federal CARES Act funds. In July, the LAT's John Myers reported that the state was withholding such funds from Atwater and Ceres in the Central Valley, but it has been crickets since and I can't get answers.

Placer last provided an update on COVID-19 on November 6 and apparently hasn't issued an order after falling to the purple tier on Monday. In contrast, adjacent Sacramento County was out with a new order within an hour of the governor's presser.

-Workplaces: In the LAT, Jie Jenny Zou reports that the board overseeing California's Division of Occupational and Safety Health (Cal/OSHA) is preparing to impement emergency new safety protocols.

Essential workers — many of them Latino, Black, immigrant and in low-wage sectors — have been disproportionately sickened by the illness. Virginia and Oregon have passed similar emergency rules to address the rise in cases of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.

...

Times’ reporting earlier this year revealed Cal/OSHA has struggled to respond to an avalanche of COVID-19-related complaints since the pandemic began. The agency has been plagued by severe understaffing and other long-standing issues that worker advocates say jeopardize its mission to protect the state’s workers.

-LA: The LAT's Soumya Karlamangla writes that health officials aren't sure why cases are spiking in the state's largest county, which creates problems for contact tracing.

The virus itself hasn’t changed, and there has been little relaxation of the rules. Interviews conducted with people who have recently tested positive for the coronavirus don’t show any significant shifts in behavior compared with a month ago, such as more visits to restaurants or other businesses, said Dr. Jeffrey Gunzenhauser, L.A. County’s chief medical officer.

For the vast majority of people sick with COVID-19 in L.A. County, officials cannot determine where they contracted the virus, he said. This mirrors national data showing that fewer than half of people with the virus know where they caught it.

“Very often, these reported places they’ve been, we have no knowledge of other people there being infected. So they don’t know and we don’t know where they got the infection,” Gunzenhauser said. “We certainly wish we had a good answer.”

The data limitations speak to the challenges the COVID-19 pandemic poses for contact tracing, a tried-and-true method that public health departments around the world use to track how an infection spreads. With so many people sick with COVID-19 or infected but showing no symptoms, identifying where someone contracted the virus becomes nearly impossible.

Also in the Times, Luke Money reports that the spike in cases in Los Angeles County has officials concerned about hospital capacity.

The dire picture painted Wednesday illustrates the ferocity with which COVID-19 has roared back to life over the past few weeks, and underscores the grim consequences facing the county if that trend continues.

“Clearly, we are at a crossroads in the COVID-19 pandemic again, and are at a dangerous place with respect to our overall cases and hospitalizations,” Dr. Christina Ghaly, the county’s director of health services, said during a briefing.

At top of mind for many is how the significant spike in cases will strike the county’s healthcare system.

The number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 countywide has shot up by more than 70% over the past month — from 722 on Oct. 17 to 1,238 as of Tuesday.

Christine Ghaly is married to Dr. Mark Ghaly, California's secretary of Health and Human Services.

WATER AND ENVIRONMENT: For Capitol Weekly, Chuck McFadden reports on the historic deal to remove dams from the Klamath River, which has been long sought by Native American tribes that historically have counted on the salmon run.

The governors of California and Oregon, leaders of the Yurok and Karuk Tribes, PacificCorps and billionaire investor Warren Buffett announced a landmark, $450 million agreement Tuesday to remove four dams on the Klamath river to restore dwindling salmon populations.

The pact, which culminates decades of discussions and political feuding between tribal leaders, environmentalists, farmers and state authorities, among others, will “provide additional resources and support to advance the most ambitious salmon restoration effort in history,” a joint statement said.

Govs. Gavin Newsom of California and Kate Brown of Oregon, tribal leaders and representatives of state government and Berkshire Hathaway announced the agreement during a video hookup.

cakeday and classifieds after the jump...

Probolsky Research

CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Nelson GoinsRachel Polish, and Maimuna Syed!

Classifieds

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Offices available for sublease: Meridian Plaza

Between 1-3 offices are available for sublease in the Meridian Plaza office building, 1415 L Street, two blocks from the Capitol. The offices are approximately 150 SF each. Internet, gym, partially furnished (desk, chair, bookcases) are included. 24/7/365 key card access; floor-ceiling windows facing Sierras; professional offices. One year lease preferred. $1,500 per office. Contact Jane at admin@stoneadvocacy.com or (415) 577-9734 with questions.

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