Around The Capitol

If you don't see images in this message, click "Display Images" or the equivalent.
Having trouble viewing this email? Click here

Receive this as a forward? Get the Nooner in your e-mail box.
To be removed from The Nooner list, click here.

Become a Nooner Premium subscriber (or below buttons for Square) to access enhanced legislative profiles, exclusive election analysis, and downloadable back-end data. | Follow @scottlay

Advertise in The Nooner to reach over 8,000 readers

RECENT PODS:

  • Look West Podcast (Assembly Democratic Caucus): The progression of the Transgender community with Human Rights Activist Ebony Ava Harper and Assemblymember Rebecca Bauer-Kahan (D-Orinda) (2020-11-13)
  • SacTown Talks (Jarhett Blonien): Assembly member Dr. Joaquin Arambula (D-Fresno) Apple Podcasts | YouTube (2020-11-13)
  • Capitol Weekly Podcast: A Post-Mortem on the 2020 Election (5 subject area panel discussions) (2020-11-12)
  • Inside Golden State Politics (Bill Boyarsky and Sherry Jeffe): Biden In Charge. California In the Spotlight. Trump In Trouble? (2020-11-12)
  • If I Could Change One Thing (Gary Rotto @ SDSU): Dr. Andrea Dooley, SDSU VP of Student Affairs and Campus Diversity on what the campus is doing to support students during COVID-19 (2020-11-12)

The Nooner for Saturday, November 14, 2020, presented by SYASL Partners

  • Election 2020
  • COVID-19
  • Prison guards
  • CA25 (Simi Valley-Santa Clarita-Antelope Valley)
  • KoreaAm double-x factor
  • Farm labor
  • Cakeday and classifieds

¡Feliz sabado! It's a beautiful morning and should be a dry day here which will allow me to finish clearing the leaves off my balcony.

In another sign of the strange year, UCLA's game against Utah and Cal's game at Arizona State have been scrubbed after the Utes and Wildcats both had virus-related issues. Instead, the Golden Bears will travel to Pasadena to play the Bruins at 9am tomorrow morning. The game will be on FS1. It'll be Cal's first game of the PAC-12 only season, while UCLA is 0-1 after losing to Colorado last Saturday.

Meanwhile, Stanford hosts the Colorado Buffaloes at 12:30pm today on ESPN.

ELECTION 2020: Yesterday, 27 counties provided updated tallies with a combined additional 84,996 ballots bringing the statewide total to 17,091,535.

-Tallied turnout: 77% of registered voters

-Possible turnout: Around 79% of registered voters, depending on validity of provisionals and conditional voter registration provisionals and any ballots postmarked by Election Day and received after the last report.

-What's left? From the unprocessed ballots report, updated at 5:00pm Tuesday (not updated yesterday due to the holiday), estimates:

  • Vote-by-mail: 470,999
  • Provisional: 58,778
  • Conditional Voter Registration Provisional: 176,750
  • Other (damaged, write-ins, etc): 39,891
  • Total: 746,418

-Topline notes: 

  • CA39 (Diamond Bar-Fullerton-Yorba Linda): First-term Rep. Gil Cisneros (D) conceded the race to former Assembly member Young Kim (R). More on this race below.
  • AD13 (Stockton): For the first time in ballot counting, former San Joaquin County supervisor Carlos Villapudua (D) leads San Joaquin County supe Kathy Miller (D) by 204 votes. Villapudua is seen as the moderate Democrat with heavy support from the oil and gas industry and law enforcement, while Miller was strong supported by most of labor, incumbent Susan Eggman, and the California Democratic Party. However, Villapudua also had the support of the California Teachers Association.
  • West Sac: Longtime mayor Christopher Cabaldon now trails councilmember and LA County lobbyist Martha Guerrero by 137 votes out of 16,397 ballots cast. Yolo County reported 18,448 unprocessed ballots as of yesterday.
  • Stockton: With 54,440 unprocessed ballots as of Wednesday, Mayor Michael Tubbs trails businessman/pastor Kevin Lincoln 55.05 to 44.95%. or 8,027 votes.
  • Sandy Eggo: Former state senator Joel Anderson currently has 144,414 (50.03%) votes to Poway mayor Steve Vaus's 144,258 (49.97%) for the 2nd District seat on the Board of Supervisors.

-Closely watched races:

  • CA21 (Coalinga-Lemoore-South Bakersfield): David Valadao (R): 80,627; *TJ Cox (D): 78,370 (Diff: 1.4% ⬇️ 0.2%)
  • CA25 (Santa Clarita-Antelope Valley): *Mike Garcia (R): 166,617, Christy Smith (D): 166,513 (Diff: 0.03%)
  • CA39 (Diamond Bar-Fullerton-Yorba Linda): Young Kim (R): 172,253, *Gil Cisneros (D): 168,108 (Diff: 1.2%)
  • CA48 (Orange County beach cities): Michelle Steel (R): 200,805, *Harley Rouda (D): 192,708 (Diff: 2.0%)
  • SD21 (Santa Clarita-Antelope Valley): *Scott Wilk (R): 193,741, Kipp Mueller (D): 187,655 (Diff: 1.6% ⬆️ 0.2%)
  • SD23 (Rancho Cucamonga-Redlands-Hemet): Rosalicie Ochoa Bogh (R): 203,970, Abigail Medina (D): 185,970 (Diff: 4.6%)
  • SD29 (Diamond Bar-Fullerton): Josh Newman (D): 212,585, *Ling Ling Chang (R): 201,959 (Diff: 2.6%)
  • SD37 (Anaheim Hills-Irvine-OC beach cities): Dave Min (D): 269,202, *John M.W. Moorlach (R): 256,969 (Diff: 2.3%)
  • LEAD CHANGE: AD13 (Stockton): Carlos Villapudua (D): 63,975, Kathy Miller (D): 63,771 (Diff: 0.2%)
  • AD74 (OC Beach Cities-Costa Mesa-Irvine): *Cottie Petrie-Norris (D): 133,059, Diane Dixon (R): 130,373 (Diff: 1.0%) 

As it currently stands (this changes with lead changes):

  • California congressional delegation: 42 Democrats, 11 Republicans (R+4 from 2018 -- CA21, CA25CA39, and CA48, while retaining the CA50 vacancy).
  • The State Senate: 31 Democrats, 9 Republicans (D+2 -- SD29, SD37).
  • The State Assembly: 60 Democrats, 19 Republicans (R+1 -- AD38), and one NPP (AD42)

Here are the current ballot measure results, which will likely reflect the final results. All ballot measures have been called by the Associated Press.

Proposition 14 (stem cell bond) 51.0%
Proposition 15 (split roll property tax) 48.0%
Proposition 16 (affirmative action ban repeal) 42.9%
Proposition 17 (voting: parole) 58.6%
Proposition 18 (voting: primary for 17yos) 44.1%
Proposition 19 (property tax base transfer) 51.1%
Proposition 20 (criminal justice) 38.2%
Proposition 21 (rent control) 40.2%
Proposition 22 (transportation network AB 5 exemption) 58.6%
Proposition 23 (dialysis) 36.4%
Proposition 24 (consumer privacy) 56.1%
Proposition 25 (bail referendum - yes upholds SB 10) 43.7%

-Oakland: For the LAT, John Myers reports on a SNAFU caused at an Oakland polling place by uninformed poll workers.

A coalition of civil rights and voting advocacy groups lashed out Friday at Alameda County elections officials after poll workers wrongly told more than 150 voters that their paper ballot was only a receipt and that it could be taken home, leading to the votes not being counted.
The mistake, the groups allege, affected voters who visited one or more locations in Oakland to cast ballots in person between Oct. 31 and election day.

“We spoke to some of the poll workers there who were really alarmed,” said Angelica Salceda, an attorney with the American Civil Liberties Union of Northern California.

The voting rights advocates said that some voters who showed up at a polling place on the campus of Mills College during the four-day period were told the ballot marking device they had used was keeping a digital record of their selections on federal, state and local races. In reality, the device only makes marks on a paper ballot, which the voter then must submit to an election official.

Instead, poll workers “incorrectly told voters ... that the printouts from the machines were ‘receipts’ that the voters should take with them, rather than official ballots that they should deposit in the ballot box,” representatives of 15 civil rights and voting rights groups wrote in a letter Thursday to Tim Dupuis, the Alameda County registrar of voters. “In general, voters who cast their ballots at Mills College were disproportionately Black, and many of the voters who had been actively encouraged by poll workers to use the [ballot marking devices] were disabled or elderly.”

The voting rights groups said they believed the mistake could have affected as many as 300 voters. In a news release on Friday, Dupuis put the number of affected voters as no more than 160 and said that 22 of the ballots mistakenly taken home had been recovered by his staff.

COVID-19: Yesterday, 77 deaths were added in California for a total of 18,214 since the beginning of the pandemic and 9,995 cases were added for a total of 1,015,783.

-Holidays: In the Times, a team looks at how the rising cases and tightening restrictions are changing the holiday season.

Pandemic Holiday Season 1.0 is taking its toll on psyches and pocketbooks. We’ve been cooped up for the better part of nine months, but instead of drawing up lists of guests and gifts, we’re cataloging the things we cannot do as temperatures drop and coronavirus cases soar across the country.

Like visit far-flung family and friends. On Friday, the governors of the three West Coast states issued “travel advisories” recommending against nonessential travel and urging people entering California, Oregon and Washington to self-quarantine for two weeks to slow the virus’ spread.

While there is a lot of criticism of the governors for the advisory, California's largest health care insurer Kaiser echoed the advisory in an email to members today.

Or buy those loved ones holiday gifts. A second round of stimulus money to help hard-hit consumers is a distant dream because of a deadlocked Congress. And even if shoppers have money in their pockets, malls are what health experts warn against: closed-in spaces with the possibility of crowds.

Or even, for the high school seniors among us, apply for college in any normal fashion. Campuses are largely on lockdown. Learning is remote. The extracurricular activities that burnish an application are on hold. And you can’t bump into your counselor in the hall for a little extra guidance.

Speaking of criticism about state guidance, there is plenty about Governor Gavin Newsom's attendance at a birthday party last Friday for longtime friend and political adviser Jason Kinney at The French Laundry in Yountville last week, first reported by the Chron's Alexei Koseff. While not out of compliance as it was outdoors and Napa County is in orange unlike the adjacent Sonoma (purple), Koseff writes:

After The Chronicle published a story online about the dinner [and after staff defended his attendance], Newsom issued an additional statement acknowledging that attending the party was an error in judgment.

“While our family followed the restaurant’s health protocols and took safety precautions, we should have modeled better behavior and not joined the dinner,” the governor said.

Throughout the pandemic, Newsom has urged Californians to maintain social distancing and to minimize mixing between households. He has redoubled those calls as coronavirus rates have risen this fall.

Meanwhile, after the announcement by the three governors of the travel advisory, California HHS Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly and epidemiologist Dr. Erica Pan held a press avail. Lakshmi Sarah reports for KQED:

California Health Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly began a press briefing Friday with a refrain he tells patients: “When I’m worried, I’ll tell you so that you can worry with me," he said. "And we're there."

State epidemiologist Dr. Erica Pan noted Friday's 6,893 positive cases in the state exceeded the 7-day average, and said COVID-19 hospitalizations have increased 36.7% over the last two weeks.

"I was asked if we're in the middle of a surge," Ghaly said. "Absolutely. 'Surge' doesn't have a clear definition, but certainly cases are on the rise in California, and we are concerned."

-Bay Area: After San Francisco's decision to close indoor dining while not required to under state guidelines, Contra Costa, Marin, and Santa Clara are following suit. Contra Costa moved to red this week, which would otherwise limit indoor dining to 25% of capacity and all three counties fear returning to the purple tier soon with a recent spike in cases. CBS13 reports:

Santa Clara and Marin County will halt all indoor dining amid a sudden spike of COVID-19 cases, with other Bay Area counties set to follow suit, health authorities announced Friday.

In addition, the dramatic increase in cases will assure the counties will be moved to the state’s Red Tier of coronavirus risk beginning on Tuesday when the state provides its next assessment. Unless the current surge is quickly brought under control, both counties expect to be moved to the Purple Tier in the next few weeks, according to health officials.

The shutdown for indoor dining in the county will go into effect on Tuesday, November 17 at 12:01 a.m., officials said.  San Francisco and Contra Costa counties have already moved to pause indoor dining in addition to other rollbacks. Alameda, San Mateo and Solano counties still allow limited indoor dining, while Sonoma County does not as it remains in the Purple Tier with the most restrictive guidelines set by the state.

Santa Clara County Health Officer Dr. Sara Cody said on Friday alone, there were 362 new cases of coronavirus, while there are 110 people hospitalized in the county with the virus, a jump from an average of 80 patients in October. Cody also said the average number of new cases per day in the county has more than doubled since early October.

-Placer County: While elected officials continue to eschew the state's guidance after being moved to the red tier, the Placer Union High School District is closing for two weeks after a spike in cases in the region, reports Sawson Morrar for The Bee.

In a letter to families, the district - which serves high school students at six campuses - said it will pause in-person classes from Nov 16 through Nov. 24 “to do our part to stabilize our community COVID-19 trends.”

Placer County was downgraded to the state’s red tier as infection rates spiked across the region. The school district said the return to distance learning was prudent just before the holiday season when, health officials say, an additional surge in cases is possible.

The decision to temporarily close schools was not mandated by the state but was precautionary, officials said, as schools are allowed to open in the state’s red tier.

“This pause and resume is being realistic that schools should be fluid and be able to adapt to several starts and stops based on COVID-19 trends,” read the letter from Superintendent George S. Sziraki. “Schools are an essential service, and we recognize how vital our work is for children developmentally and educationally.

...

Also in Placer County, Rocklin Unified reported that 12 students tested positive for COVID-19 last week. Sacramento public schools are still operating under the distance learning model, except for Folsom Cordova Unified, which brought elementary-aged students back to campus on Thursday.

It still appears that Placer County has not issued a public health order reflecting the return to the red tier. A previous emergency declaration and order were previously overturned by the Board of Supervisors, leading the county's public health officer to quit.

-Sandy Eggo: San Diego County once again finds itself as a defendant in a case challenging the health order issued under state guidance for the purple tier. This time, it's four restaurants and gyms, report Lori Weisberg and Paul Sisson for the Union-Tribune:

Just a little more than a day before many San Diego County businesses will be forced to cease indoor operations because of the widening pandemic, four local restaurants and gyms filed a lawsuit seeking an emergency injunction that would halt the imminent shutdown.

By 12:01 a.m. Saturday, the county’s entry into the most restrictive purple level of the state’s COVID-19 reopening system will become effective, meaning that restaurants, bars that serve food, gyms, churches and movie theaters will be limited to only outdoor operations.

Filing the suit late Thursday evening were Cowboy Star and Butcher Shop, Home and Away Encinitas, also a restaurant; and two gyms, Fit Athletic Club and Bear Republic. The businesses, which filed the legal action on behalf of all restaurants and gyms, assert that the state and county orders interfere with their rights and violate the California Constitution.

They are asking a judge to grant an injunction that would allow affected businesses to reopen indoors under required sanitation and social distancing protocols, a move they say will “redress the harms suffered by them without undermining the government’s legitimate interest in public health.”

The suit came as local coronavirus numbers continued to surge. Friday’s daily COVID-19 tracking report listed 611 additional coronavirus cases and three deaths. It was the third-straight day with more than 600 positive tests reported to the county health department, echoing a similar surge underway statewide.

A hearing before San Diego Superior Court Judge Kenneth J. Medel is scheduled for Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. The businesses are represented by the New York-based law firm of Wilson Elser, whose lawyers declined to comment Friday on the suit. A county official as well said it would not be commenting on the litigation.

I think we've seen this story played out several times since March to no avail to the plaintiffs. The lone exception were the San Diego strip clubs, but that was a categorization issue and not a state guidance issue.

PRISON GUARDS: For The Bee, Wes Venteicher looks into how the California Correctional Peace Officers Association did this election after its return to big-spending politics after laying low for several cycles but prompted to return amidst Capitol discussions around policing reform. Hint: it didn't go well.

The prison guards’ union, through its political committees, spent $1 million to support incumbent Los Angeles County District Attorney Jackie Lacey, but she lost to progressive criminal justice reform advocate George Gascon, a former San Francisco district attorney.

It gave $2 million to support Proposition 20, which would have stiffened prison sentences and restricted parole, but the measure is failing by a 24% margin.

And the union spent at least $1 million to support Efren Martinez, a Los Angeles businessman who lost his race against incumbent Democratic Assemblyman Reggie Jones-Sawyer, chairman of the Assembly Public Safety Committee.

The union also backed some winners, potentially including Dave Min, a Democrat who defeated Republican state Sen. John Moorlach of Orange County.

The expensive losses reflect how difficult it will be for the union to carry out [CCPOA president Glen] Stailey’s vision of regaining the union’s once-renowned clout in a changed political environment.

CA25 (Simi Valley-Santa Clarita-Antelope Valley): With the razor-thin lead Rep. Mike Garcia (R) has over Assembly member Christy Smith (D) in the rematch of the March special election to fill Katie Hill (D)'s seat, I dove into the possible outlook with the remaining ballots.

As listed above, Garcia has 166,617 to Smith's 166,513 for a 104-vote lead. Ventura County, where Garcia has a 54.2%-49% lead, has 3,892 ballots left. If they are distributed evenly among the four congressional districts with some of that counties voters in it, 16% would be allocated to CA25, or 623 votes. In Los Angeles County, there are around 90,000 unprocessed ballots and CA25 is 6.2% of the county's registered voters. Again, if allocated proportionally, that would mean 5,787 votes in the county, where Smith leads 51%-49%.

Now, there are lots of assumptions here. As mentioned above, a big one is that the unprocessed votes are distributed among congressional districts in both counties evenly (they won't be). Further, it assumes that the current percentages earned by each county in the two counties will be reflected in the last counted ballos (they won't be).

Traditionally, the last counted ballots are the final vote-by-mail ballots and then provisionals (including conditionals), which lean far more toward Democrats. This is obviously a year like no other with Democrats voting early by mail and Republicans voting late in person, but there are some signs of that the ordinary late lean occurring. 

Anyway, as you watched the teevee and they kept talking about their "decision desks" of geeks who sit in a room on a different floor from the studio, this is the kind of stuff that they as well as the campaigns are doing. 2020 just makes it much more difficult because traditional voting patterns are largely reversed.

This is what CA25 looks like with current data.

    Smith (D) Garcia (R)
Los Angeles (current)   51.0% 49.0%
Ventura (current)   45.8% 54.2%
       
  Unprocessed Projected allocations
Los Angeles           5,787            2,951           2,836
Ventura              623               285              338
               3,236           3,173
       
Current total        166,513       166,617
Projected total        169,749       169,790
   49.99% 50.01%

KoreAm DOUBLE-X FACTOR: With the election of Young Kim to CA39 and Michelle Steel to CA48, the two will join Marilyn Strickland of Washington when they enter the 117th Congress in January as the first Korean-American women in the House of Representatives. Kim and Steel will be the second and third Korean-Americans from California. The first was Jay Kim (R) of Diamond Bar who was primaried amidst a campaign finance scandal by Gary Miller (R) in 1998 before the top-two primary. Miller stayed in Congress until 2014 as the redistricted seat became more Democratic and is now represented Pete Aguilar (D).

Strickland was born in Seoul to a Korean mother and an African-American service member.

In response to the election of Strickland and about Democrat Andy Kim of New Jersey, Jay Kim allegedly said (on Korean-language TV) "The woman does not appear to be 100% Korean, and her husband is Black. The other fella (Rep. Andy Kim) has an Arab wife," adding "I wish they were 100% Korean, a purebred like I am."

The one-drop rule may be legally defunct after Loving v. Virginia (1967), but it's alive and well among some in 2020 and not all wear white sheets.

FARM LABOR: In the Times, David G. Savage reports that the Supreme Court of the United States has agreed to take up a challenge of California labor law that allows union organizers to enter the work area on farms during certain times of the day as an unlawful governmental taking.

The U.S. Supreme Court agreed Friday to hear a property rights challenge to a 45-year-old California labor law that allows union organizers to go on farmland to speak with workers at the start of their day or during a lunch break.

Several growers backed by the California Farm Bureau contend the law should be struck down as unconstitutional because it amounts to the government taking private property.

Lawyers for the Pacific Legal Foundation, who filed the appeal, called it a “union trespass law.”

“The Constitution forbids government from requiring you to allow unwanted strangers onto your property. And union activists are no exception,” said Joshua Thompson, a senior attorney at Pacific Legal. “California’s regulation that allows them to do so violates property owners’ fundamental right to exclude trespassers.”

cakeday and classifieds after the jump...

Probolsky Research

CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to David Hadley, Amy Howorth, and Amanda Levy!

Classifieds

Add your classified now both in The Nooner and online for $50/week or $150/month by emailing scottlay@gmail.com, with a headline, a summary of up to 200 words, and what you'd like the end date to be. You can attach a PDF or provide a link for a bigger job description/info to apply. [Other advertising options]


California School Boards Association - Legislative Director

CSBA is seeking a Legislative Director to lead our Governmental Relations team to shape legislative and political strategy for CSBA’s statewide agenda. You will act as a liaison between legislative, educational, and public communities. If you are interested in leading a team of legislative advocates to influence opinion in favor of public education, please apply through our website. Position is located in West Sacramento. Learn more and apply here: https://www.csba.org/About/Careers

Offices available for sublease: Meridian Plaza

Between 1-3 offices are available for sublease in the Meridian Plaza office building, 1415 L Street, two blocks from the Capitol. The offices are approximately 150 SF each. Internet, gym, partially furnished (desk, chair, bookcases) are included. 24/7/365 key card access; floor-ceiling windows facing Sierras; professional offices. One year lease preferred. $1,500 per office. Contact Jane at admin@stoneadvocacy.com or (415) 577-9734 with questions.

Photos: 1 | 2 | 3

Political Data Inc.
For 30 Years PDI has been California’s premier data vendor. Now, you can get live online trainings on the newest PDI software every week: