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The Nooner for Saturday, November 7, 2020, presented by SYASL Partners
- Election 2020
- Heat and wildfires
- Cakeday and classifieds
We now can return to regularly scheduled programming. Today, it was proclaimed that Kanye West will not be our next Vice President. Meanwhile, Gavin Newsom's porch is filling up with flowers by would-be Senate appointees. I do not expect Kamala to resign the Senate seat until January 20, so we have time for those parlor games. (And the chain reaction parlor games should an appointee occupy an office that is filled by the governor if a vacancy occurs...)
Yesterday's vote returns continued to be moderate-conservative, with all but one of the races I'm tracking for ATCpro moving to the more conservative candidate (both in D-R and D-D races). The sole exception was SD29 (Diamond Bar-Fullerton-Yorba Linda), where challenger Josh Newman (D) picked up 0.1% on Senator Ling Ling Chang (R) and now leads by 10,618 (2.8%).
-What's left? From the unprocessed ballots report, updated at 5:50pm yesterday:
- Vote-by-mail: 3,459,762
- Provisional: 72,087
- Conditional Voter Registration Provisional: 285,303
- Other (damaged, write-ins, etc): 84,514
- Total: 3,901,666
-Candidates: Here is the update on our closely watched races. One has fallen below a 5% difference, and so the intraparty Dem battle between Kathy Miller and Carlos Villapudua makes today list. In the safe Dem seat, Miller was endorsed by the California Democratic Party, labor, and progressive organizations. Stockton councilmember Miller had lots of financial support from Assembly Democrats and the CDP. Meanwhile, the oil and gas industry spent $753,044 supporting former San Joaquin supervisor Villapudua and $930,306 opposing Miller.
- CA21 (Coalinga-Lemoore-South Bakersfield): David Valadao (R): 64,639; *TJ Cox (D): 59,346 (Diff: 4.2%)
- CA25 (Santa Clarita-Antelope Valley): *Mike Garcia (R): 148,916, Christy Smith (D): 148,484 (Diff: 0.2%)
- CA39 (Diamond Bar-Fullerton-Yorba Linda): Young Kim (R): 155,453, *Gil Cisneros (D): 143,800 (Diff: 0.8%)
- CA48 (Orange County beach cities): Michelle Steel (R): 182,834, *Harley Rouda (D): 179,452 (Diff: 1.6%)
- SD21 (Santa Clarita-Antelope Valley): *Scott Wilk (R): 160,724, Kipp Mueller (D): 157,317 (Diff: 1.0%)
- SD23 (Rancho Cucamonga-Redlands-Hemet): Rosalicie Ochoa Bogh (R): 137,325, Abigail Medina (D): 133,678 (Diff: 1.4%)
- SD29 (Diamond Bar-Fullerton): Josh Newman (D): 182,388, *Ling Ling Chang (R): 172,803 (Diff: 3.2%)
- SD37 (Anaheim Hills-Irvine-OC beach cities): Dave Min (D): 254,443, *John M.W. Moorlach (R): 240,951 (Diff: 2.8%)
- ADDED AS CLOSE RACE: AD13 (Stockton): Kathy Miller (D): 45,050 Carlos Villapudua (D): 41,151 (Diff: 4.6%)
- AD74 (OC Beach Cities-Costa Mesa-Irvine): *Cottie Petrie-Norris (D): 126,585, Diane Dixon (R): 122,618 (Diff: 1.6%)
As it currently stands, the California congressional delegation would be 42 Democrats, 11 Republicans (R+3 -- CA21, CA39, CA48, and filling CA50 vacancy) -- corrected from yesterday. The State Senate would be 31 Democrats, 9 Republicans (D+2 -- SD29, SD37). The State Assembly would be 60 Democrats, 20 Republicans (R+1 -- AD38).
Obviously, we're far from complete and we have weeks of updates ahead.
-Ballot measures: For CalMatters, Ben Christopher looks at the chances ballot measure results may change. One to watch is Proposition 14, which has been on a steady decline in the daily ATCpro spreadsheet.
|Proposition 14: Authorizes Bonds to Continue Funding Stem Cell and Other Medical Research. Initiative Statute.
|Results as of 11/3/2020 10:00pm
||Results as of 11/4/2020 12:20am
||Results as of 11/4/2020 7:30pm
||Results as of 11/5/2020 7:30pm
||Results as of 11/6/2020 7:30pm
As of this evening, the Associated Press has called 9 of the 12 propositions.
Of the three that remain, Prop. 15, the “split roll” measure that would modify iconic Prop. 13 by hiking property taxes on many businesses, is trailing by less than 4 points. To make up that difference, the “Yes” campaign will need to win at least 56% of remaining ballots.
Two uncalled measures currently ahead are Prop. 14, a bond measure that would fund stem cell research, and Prop. 19, a complicated initiative that would grant some property tax breaks to older homeowners while closing a tax break for some Californians who inherit homes from their parents.
Both measures will need to claim 47% of the outstanding vote to hold on to their narrow leads.
It’s unclear how realistic any of those percentages are, which is why the Associated Press hasn’t called the races yet. But we can make a few educated guesses based on which ballots are yet to be counted and where they’re coming from.
-L.A. D.A.: Los Angeles District Attorney Jackie Lacey yesterday conceded her bid for reelection to former San Francisco District Attorney George Gascón, who immediately announced that he would stop seeking the death penalty and prosecuting minors as adults. Of course, Governor Gavin Newsom ordered a moratorium on the death penalty and the last execution carried out in California was in 2006.
In the Times, Priya Krishnakumar and Iris Lee look at how Gascón defeated Lacey:
[F]ollowing a summer of calls for change, Gascón positioned himself as a reformer, poached endorsements, out-fundraised the incumbent and rode the wave of voters who turned out for the presidential election.
A Times analysis of the general election results shows how Gascón assembled a winning coalition. His political path to victory came from uniting the progressive opposition in the densely populated core of the county, while winning over areas where Lacey once enjoyed strong support.
While some votes remain to be counted, more than 3 million have been tallied in the 3,383 precincts across Los Angeles County. A block-by-block map of the neighborhood precincts provides the most detailed view available of the vote.
It shows that Gascón gained support all across the L.A. Basin, racking up the biggest margins in East and South Los Angeles.
-Stockton: Michael Tubbs, the promising young mayor of Stockton who has tested out progressive ideas such as universal basic income in the San Joaquin town, is currently trailing Kevin Lincoln by 2,403 votes, or 4.5%. AP's Adam Beam reports:
In an interview with The Associated Press on Friday, Tubbs insisted he is behind not because he lacks support, but because of the way San Joaquin County Registrar Melinda Dubroff is counting the votes. Through Thursday, the registrar's office has counted only ballots cast in-person on Election Day or mail-in ballots received prior to Oct. 30, he said.
Statewide, registered Democrats were more likely to vote by mail while registered Republicans were more likely to vote in person. Tubbs says there are still about 44,000 vote-by-mail ballots to be counted and he expects the vast majority to be for him.
“The current vote count reflects an overabundance of conservative voters, which will be radically different once all the votes are counted,” Tubbs said. “The frustration is, it's taking the registrar a lot of time to count the ballots. I think in that window of time there's anxiety building up where people are trying to Monday morning quarterback.”
-The OC: A team at the Times looks into how Democrats could lose two members of Congress in Orange County elected in the "blue wave" of 2018 while Biden leads President Trump in the county 53.7-44.4%. While choosing McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012, OC flipped in 2016 and will stay there this year.
Of course, what's also odd is that both of these OC congressional seats, CA39 and CA48, overlap with two State Senate seats Democrats are likely to flip -- SD29 and SD37.
-CA53 (San Diego): In the SDUT, Andrew Dyer talks to Sara Jacobs (D) about her priorities after being sworn in. Jacobs will be youngest member of the California congressional delegation in the race against Georgette Gómez to succeed ten-term congresswoman Susan Davis.
Jacobs said once she’s sworn-in to the 117th Congress on Jan. 3, her first priority is pandemic relief.
“I think that COVID-19 response and this crisis that we’re in is going to have to be the first focus of the next Congress and my goal is to make sure that we get assistance for our small businesses here in the 53rd District and that we’re supporting families.”
Jacobs said any equitable COVID-19 relief bill would include funding for child care.
Long term, Jacobs said the U.S. needs to rebuild its relationships with allies around the world. As a former State Department contractor who worked at both UNICEF and the United Nations, foreign policy was one of her strengths during the campaign.
Climate change is another priority for Jacobs, who said late Tuesday it was an issue a new generation of leaders must face. At 31, Jacobs joins a growing contingent of millennial lawmakers that includes high-profile Democratic women such as Alexandria Occasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., and Ilhan Omar, D-Minn. There are 26 millennials currently in Congress.
-Strip clubs: A San Diego judge has overruled the San Diego County Department of Public Health and is allowing two strip clubs to open, report Paul Sisson and Deborah Sullivan Brennan in the SDUT.
Judge Joel R. Wohlfeil granted a request for a temporary injunction that stops “any government entity or law enforcement officer from enforcing the provisions of the cease-and-desist orders” filed against two establishments — Pacers Showgirls International and Cheetahs Gentlemen’s Club — provided both locations follow extensive measures designed to prevent the spread of the coronavirus on their premises.
A lawsuit that the clubs filed against the county in October alleges that the county’s public health orders, which prohibit live entertainment but that don’t specifically mention adult entertainment, violate the businesses’ constitutional rights of due process and equal protection under the law, arguing that other establishments, from restaurants to comedy clubs, have been allowed to host “considerable live entertainment.”
Reached Friday evening, Jason Saccuzzo, the attorney representing Pacers in the action, said the Midway district strip club planned to resume dancing that very evening with dancers separated from patrons by 15 feet.
Do the bills go to the dancers via zip line or some sort of pulley system??
HEAT AND WILDFIRES: In the Times, Hayley Smith reports on the record warm weather in California that set the stage for wildfires that ravaged the state this year.
In the midst of the state’s most destructive wildfire season, California shattered temperature records in August, September and October.
All three months were the state’s warmest on record, according to a new report by UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain.
“The long-term warming trend during the peak of fire season in California has been especially pronounced,” Swain said on Twitter, “and 2020 really puts an exclamation point on that.”
“There were nearly 400 daily high temperature records broken across California in September,” said Karin Gleason, a meteorologist with the National Centers for Environmental Information at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “In October, approximately 300 daily high temperature records were set.”
Gleason attributed the warming trend to a persistent ridge of high pressure across the Western U.S. that allowed for scant cloud cover, little to no rainfall and plenty of sunshine. She said it’s a trend that is likely to continue in years to come.
“In a warming climate, we expect to see more record warm temperatures broken than we may have seen in the past,” she said. “It is expected to become more commonplace.”
FPPC: The LAT's Patrick McGreevy reports that complaints to the Fair Political Practices Commission have surged in 2020.
The state Fair Political Practices Commission received 445 complaints of campaign finance violations and other offenses from Oct. 1 through election day, compared with 307 in the five weeks leading up to the Nov. 8, 2016, election. The agency said it has so far opened investigations into 112 of the complaints filed in recent weeks.
Though the surge in allegations of campaign irregularities may partly be the result of a large slate of statewide ballot initiatives that generated political heat, political scientist Larry Gerston said he thinks a bigger factor is the tension sparked by the presidential contest.
“I haven’t seen this much collective angst since 1968,” said Gerston, professor emeritus at San Jose State. “The political environment is singed with distrust and anger.”
cakeday and classifieds after the jump...
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