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GENERAL ELECTION DATA POINTS
The Nooner for Election Day, November 3, 2020, presented by SYASL Partners
Well, we're here. This is the end, or perhaps the beginning of the end of the most surreal election in our nation's history. Tonight, I'll be providing updates, including highlights from state races, on Twitter with the hashtag #caelections (if you don't want to see all my tweets that might include national retweets, etc.). Otherwise, follow me at @scottlay. I anticipate having the first spreadsheet of results out to ATCpro subscribers by 10pm. These will be heavy on mail-in ballots returned early and while Democrats returned ballots at a much faster pace than Republicans, as you'll see below, 62% of Democrats and 57% of Republicans have returned ballots, so it's not as distorted as we thought it was going to be as of a week ago. I'll likely have the next update around midnight before grabbing a few hours of sleep and one tomorrow morning. We'll see what the update plans are for counties. In California, several counties wrap "election night" counting between 2am-3am and then don't update again until Friday, notably Los Angeles. I'm doing results differently this year in a spreadsheet so we can see the updates in the hours/days/weeks ahead and create a timeline of results for these targeted races in this election like no other. As always, if you want to get the spreadsheets, you can do it for as little as $5 one month. I hate putting stuff behind the paywall, but advertising is way down and these are 18-hour days. After the statewide vote is certified in 30 days, I'll provide the spreadsheet to everyone. I plan to include results from: Congressional/state legislative races: * = incumbent The California congressional delegation is currently 46 Democrats, 6 Republicans, and one vacancy. The vacancy is in CA50, which was previously held by Duncan Hunter (R), and is rated as Leans Republican with former Rep. Darrell Issa (R) as the favorite. From a partisan perspective, the races to watch most closely are CA21 (TJ Cox-D), CA25 (Mike Garcia-R), and CA48 (Harley Rouda-D). Democrats will most likely retain the overwhelming majority of the delegation, with a range of 44-48 of the 53 districts.
Democrats currently hold 29 seats in the State Senate and Republicans hold 11. Of the six closely watched seats, two (SD11 and SD15) are Dem-Dem races. SD21 (Wilk) and SD29 (Chang) are Republican-held Toss-ups, SD23 (open GOP-held seat) is Leans Republican, and SD37 is Republican-held (Moorlach) and Leans Democratic. In the State Senate, Democrats will likely exceed a supermajority with 29 seats, and the range is 29-32 of the forty-member house. However, I believe it is unlikely that Democrats will sweep the four seats currently held by the GOP.
Democrats currently have 61 of the 80 seats in the State Assembly. Of the twelve closely watched seats, four are Dem-Dem races -- AD13 (open), AD59 (Jones-Sawyer), AD64 (Gipson), and AD78 (open). One is a NPP-Rep race (former Rep. Chad Mayes defending changing to independent with a GOP challenger) and one is open -- AD72 (Diep) -- and currently held by a Republican. The remaining are three incumbent seats held by Republicans and three held by Democrats. In the defensive Democratic seats of AD74 (Petrie-Norris) and AD76 (Boerner Horvath), incumbents are strong favorites, as is the Republican in AD35 (Cunningham). Democrats will hold a supermajority with a range of 59-62, although the politics of the caucus could shift more to the middle based on the outcomes in AD13, AD59, and AD64.
The 12 statewide ballot measures A few high-profile local races
Let's hope everything goes as planned! My results tabs are open and the technology on my end seems in good shape today. Of course, it will also depend on the technology of 58 counties and the SOS. I am ready and have faith! THE VOTE (as of 11/3 10:47:
-Be prepared: A team at the Times reports on preparations for possible unrest in the Los Angeles region. Of course, after watching the celebration after the Lakers win, you have to prepare for anything -- win or lose. Meanwhile, The Bee reports on similar reboarding of downtown:
I'm just surprised the Citizen along with other downtown hotels have guests. I mean, without the Legislature, conventions/conferences, or arena events, who woulda thunk? If you were told in 2019 that 2020 was going to be a pandemic year, I bet you didn't add plywood manufacturers on your list of stocks to buy. -My bad: Of course, mail-in ballots must be postmarked by today and delivered to county elections officials by USPS or a bona fide delivery service by November 20. Yesterday was the cut-and-paste from 2018 and I didn't update the date. The most important thing is postmarked today. Of course, it can be delivered to a Vote Center or ballot drop box as well by 8pm today. COVID-19:
-Tier update postponed to Wednesday: The regular Tuesday update on county reopening has been pushed until tomorrow because of the election. -School daze: For CalMatters, Ricardo Cano and James Bikales look at how school reopenings are working in California. -Los Angeles County: In the LAT, Luke Money reports that rising case counts are dashing hopes a reopening of businesses and services in Los Angeles County.
-San Diego County: Paul Sisson reports for the San Diego Union-Tribune that the county faces falling to the most restrictive Purple Tier unless it can collect and process many more tests (assumedly lowering the positivity rate) this week. Purple means no more indoor dining and many other businesses and services.
EMERGENCY POWERS: Yesterday, a Sutter County judge rebuked the governor's executive order changing elections rules for the November election amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Jeremy B. White reports for Politico:
Some may ask why the case was filed in Sutter County rather than Sacramento, where many of these types of cases are filed. The case was filed by Assemblymembers James Gallagher (R-Yuba City) and Kevin Kiley (R-Roseville). Contrary to popular belief, fellow UC Davis Law alum Gallagher's residence of Yuba City is not in Yuba County, but rather Sutter County. Gallagher is an attorney for a small firm in Yuba City. Judge Heckman, a Republican former DA and court commissioner, was not appointed by a governor to the bench, but rather ran for an open seat to the court in 2012. I don't write that to discount her legal conclusion but rather interesting trivia and how my brain works on Election Day before polls close everywhere but Dixville Notch, NH ("Hartsfield Landing" on The West Wing. That said, after experiences with terrorism and a pandemic over the last twenty years, we need a constitutional amendment that broadens gubernatorial powers during specified emergencies and, as was introduced in the Legislature, an amendment that allows for a virtual convening of the Legislature in specified emergencies. Anyone watch Designated Survivor, the great series starring Kiefer Sutherland? Anyway, that's it for now. I am going to do some chores, get outside for a walk, and hopefully get a nap in -- although who am I kidding. I've been through enough election days to know that it's rarely possible. cakeday and classifieds after the jump... CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Anna Ferrera and Assembly member Marty Gallegos! ClassifiedsAdd your classified now both in The Nooner and online for $50/week or $150/month by emailing scottlay@gmail.com, with a headline, a summary of up to 200 words, and what you'd like the end date to be. You can attach a PDF or provide a link for a bigger job description/info to apply. [Other advertising options]California School Boards Association - Legislative Director CSBA is seeking a Legislative Director to lead our Governmental Relations team to shape legislative and political strategy for CSBA’s statewide agenda. You will act as a liaison between legislative, educational, and public communities. If you are interested in leading a team of legislative advocates to influence opinion in favor of public education, please apply through our website. Position is located in West Sacramento. Learn more and apply here: https://www.csba.org/About/Careers Offices available for sublease: Meridian Plaza Between 1-3 offices are available for sublease in the Meridian Plaza office building, 1415 L Street, two blocks from the Capitol. The offices are approximately 150 SF each. Internet, gym, partially furnished (desk, chair, bookcases) are included. 24/7/365 key card access; floor-ceiling windows facing Sierras; professional offices. One year lease preferred. $1,500 per office. Contact Jane at admin@stoneadvocacy.com or (415) 577-9734 with questions. Political Data Inc. For 30 Years PDI has been California’s premier data vendor. Now, you can get live online trainings on the newest PDI software every week: |