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GENERAL ELECTION DATA POINTS
The Nooner for Monday, November 2, 2020, presented by SYASL Partners
¡Buenos dias mis amigos! It's a beautiful fall chilly early morning here at the HQ. Off coffee (but not all caffeine) for six months, I'm enjoying a delicious almond vanilla black tea from Allspicery. Other favorites right now are the peach oolong, roasted apple green tea, walnut green tea, and gingerbread (herbal) tea. For winding down doing the NYT crossword before bed, it's the sweet dream herbal tea. The store at 11th/L is not open to patrons, but they take phone and online orders for storefront pickup, as well as delivery and shipping options. Despite the surreal atmosphere, 2020 has been a good year of discovery. Don't get me wrong, I love a good coffee, although sitting at the desk for seven hours pre-Nooner and many more after it goes out during a pandemic resulted in far too much consumption so I had to temper down the caffeine. Some folks wondered why I stopped providing the daily campaign finance highlights. At this point, it's basically just in-kind contributions, which I wasn't including anyway. Although, there are interesting (and huge) ones by the tech companies behind Prop. 22. Sam Harnett reports for KQED on one Uber engineer who quit over the pressure to actively support the measure, including handing out swag to riders. I read way too many campaign finance reports, but rarely do you see in-kind reports exceeding $1 million. THE VOTE:
-The count: From a 2018 Nooner: Simply put, the ordering of ballot counting is as such:
Be patient and learn the above process that elections officials around the state will be following, with monitors from both parties witnessing the process. It's never been a process that ends on Election Day and shouldn't be. To ensure there is no fraud and that every legally cast ballot is counted, counties have 30 days to complete the count, which also includes the mandatory contact of voters who have a signature mismatch to give them a chance to cure the problem. And, when your friends and family or social media complain about why it takes so long to finalize the counts, help set the record straight. -The Viet-American vote: For the Times, Anh Do looks at the generational split in the Vietnamese-American community.
-Temecula: The Trump caravans yesterday that shut down the Mario Cuomo (Tappan Zee) Bridge, New Jersey Parkway, and the Washington Beltway did not leave California untouched. There was one in Sacramento, but I don't think there were any major interruptions of traffic flow. However, Matt Stiles reports for the LAT that one such caravan temporarily impacted a vote center in the Ronald Reagan Sports Park in Temecula. A massive caravan of supporters of President Trump paraded for 60 miles through Riverside County on Sunday afternoon before converging on a large Temecula sports park, blocking access to the site, which included a vote center, snarling traffic and upsetting some voters, officials there said. BALLOT BONANZA: A team at the LAT looks at the huge amount of money being spent on ballot measures in California this year.
COVID-19:
Credit: California Department of Public Health -School daze: At the Times, a team reports on the pandemic-era struggles of students in LA Unified, the largest school district in the United States. Meanwhile, Howard Blume of the Times looks at LA Unified's plan to address struggling student performance, particularly those with special needs.
CA22 (Clovis-Visalia-Tulare): Alexan Balekian reports for YourCentral Valley/KSEE/CBS47 on a new poll that shows Democrat Phil Arballo within 5 points of incumbent Devin Nunes (R), one of the most polarizing members of the California congressional delegation. However, the poll was conducted by Democratic multipurpose firm Strategies 360, which is rated B/C by FiveThirtyEight. Last Tuesday, Strategies 360 showed Ammar Campa-Najjar tied with Darrell Issa in CA50 (East San Diego County). On the same day, SurveyUSA (rated A by FiveThirtyEight) found Issa with an 11-point lead. Cook Political has that race as leans Republican, Sabato's Crystal Ball at UVA has it as likely Republican, and I have it as leans Republican. In fact, when I talked Saturday to Kyle Kondik at Sabato's Crystal Ball to share notes (leading to those race changes yesterday), CA50 didn't even come up. Anyway, there is a lot of polling noise out there. That's why geeks like Kondik, Dave Wasserman at Cook Political, and me spend so many hours looking behind the headlines. We seek polling questions and crosstabs, neither of which were provided in the Strategies 360 polls. That's why I'm not changing my likely Republican rating on CA22, with Nunes strongly favored to win a tenth term in the 117th Congress. KAMALA: At the LAT, George Skelton looks at the possibilities for Newsom's pick of a United States Senator should the Biden/Harris ticket be successful tomorrow. If that happens, we have lots of time to play parlor games as Harris is unlikely to resign until swearing-in on January 20. Joe Mathews jumps in the game and offers five out-of-the-box options. SCOTUS WITH THE MOSTUS: Lost in the election news this week is the Supreme Court's oral arguments hearing on Wednesday in Fulton v. City of Philadelphia. The case challenges the city's requirement that entities participating in the foster-home program to allow same-sex couples to be eligible for placement. Catholic Social Services ("CSS") filed the case in alleging that the policy violated the Free Exercise, Establishment, and Speech clauses of the First Amendment and sought injunctive relief blocking the city's policy. In 2018, the court for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania refused to grant a preliminary injunction and CSS appealed that denial to the Third Circuit. The Third Circuit upheld that denial and CSS appealed to the Supreme Court. The Trump Administration is siding with the appellant CSS and an attorney for the Solicitor Journal was granted the ability to participate in oral argument as amicus curiae. The issue could go well beyond foster care and include adoption, employment, and reproductive rights to contraception under employer health care plans. With a new 6-3 majority that could go around Chief Justice John Roberts and still have a 5-4 majority, this will be one of the biggest tests of this term. CJ Roberts, Associate Justices Thomas, Alito, Sotomayor, Kavanaugh, and Barrett are all Catholic (Gorsuch is Aglican/Catholic). Assuming Sotomayor stays with the liberals and Roberts does not go with the majority, there are still five Catholic justices who could form a 5-4 majority if Gorsuch went with them. cakeday and classifieds after the jump... CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Glen Schaller, Paco Torres, and Nadir Vissanjy! ClassifiedsAdd your classified now both in The Nooner and online for $50/week or $150/month by emailing scottlay@gmail.com, with a headline, a summary of up to 200 words, and what you'd like the end date to be. You can attach a PDF or provide a link for a bigger job description/info to apply. [Other advertising options]California School Boards Association - Legislative Director CSBA is seeking a Legislative Director to lead our Governmental Relations team to shape legislative and political strategy for CSBA’s statewide agenda. You will act as a liaison between legislative, educational, and public communities. If you are interested in leading a team of legislative advocates to influence opinion in favor of public education, please apply through our website. Position is located in West Sacramento. Learn more and apply here: https://www.csba.org/About/Careers Offices available for sublease: Meridian Plaza Between 1-3 offices are available for sublease in the Meridian Plaza office building, 1415 L Street, two blocks from the Capitol. The offices are approximately 150 SF each. Internet, gym, partially furnished (desk, chair, bookcases) are included. 24/7/365 key card access; floor-ceiling windows facing Sierras; professional offices. One year lease preferred. $1,500 per office. Contact Jane at admin@stoneadvocacy.com or (415) 577-9734 with questions. Political Data Inc. For 30 Years PDI has been California’s premier data vendor. Now, you can get live online trainings on the newest PDI software every week: |