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RECENT PODS:

  • POLITICALish (David Quintana): Los Angeles city councilmember and former Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de León YouTube (2020-10-30)
  • California State of Mind (Chris Nichols @ PolitiFact): TMI: On Social Media Disinformation And 2020’s Ballot Battles (2020-10-30) 
  • SacTown Talks (Jarhett Blonien): Senator Tom Umberg (D-Villa Park)  Apple Podcasts | YouTube (2020-10-14) (2020-10-29)
  • Inside Golden State Politics (Bill Boyarsky and Sherry Jeffe): The U.S. Supreme Court and competitive California congressional races. (2020-10-29) 
  • Capitol Weekly Podcast (John Howard and Tim Foster) Ten days left with Paul Mitchell (2020-10-25)
  • Then There's California (Senate Democratic Caucus): Senator Henry Stern (D-Canoga Park) talks about wildfire and climate change on the 2nd anniversary of the disasterous Woolsey Fire (2020-10-20)
  • Capitol Weekly Podcast (John Howard and Tim Foster): UFCW Western States Council legislative and political adviser Caitlin Vega (2020-10-19)
  • Political Breakdown (Scott Shafer and Maris Lagos @ KQED): The political fight over voting with Dan Schnur (2020-10-15)
  • Inside Golden State Politics (Bill Boyarsky and Sherry Jeffe): Bob Stern joins to talk about the GOP ballot box issue and some of the ballot measures on the November ballot (2020-10-15)
  • SacTown Talks (Jarhett Blonien): Assembly member Lisa Calderon Apple Podcasts | YouTube (2020-10-14)

GENERAL ELECTION DATA POINTS

  • Election Day: 2 days
  • RealClearPolitics presidential average: Biden 51.1, Trump: 43.9 (10/23-10/31): Biden+7.2 (Biden is +7.6 at 50.4 when Jorgensen (L) and Hawkins (G) are included) -- updated today
  • RealClearPolitics generic congressional average: Dems+8.0 (9/18-10/31)

DISTRICT CHANGES:

  • CA21 (Coalinga-Lemoore-South Bakersfield): changed from Toss-up to Leans Republican
  • CA25 (Santa Clarita-Antelope Valley): changed from Toss-up to Leans Republican

The Nooner for Sunday, November 1, 2020, presented by SYASL Partners

  • COVID-19
  • The vote
  • Election Day stress
  • CA25
  • Prop. 15
  • Prop. 22
  • LA DA
  • LA-LA Land
  • Oakland police
  • Food and hunger
  • Cakeday and classifieds 

Happy November, or in 2020 terms March 246th.

After writing yesterday to fall back for Daylight Savings Time, I looked at my clock which said 4:30 and got out of bed. I turned my tea kettle on and sat down at my desk. Of course, it was 3:30. Ugh! I returned to bed and may or may not have fallen back asleep. I just remember listening to podcasts.

COVID-19:

  • Yesterday, California recorded 39 deaths for a total of 17,665 since the pandemic began. 

As President Trump holds a string of rallies across the country in the final days of the presidential campaign, Stanford researchers released a study that found that earlier presidential campaign gatherings accounted for 30,000 additional cases of the coronavirus and may have led to 700 deaths.

The study from the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research looked at the number of coronavirus cases and deaths in the weeks after Trump held 18 large campaign rallies between June 20 and Sept. 22.

“The communities in which Trump rallies took place paid a high price in terms of disease and death,” said the study by B. Douglas Bernheim, a Stanford economics professor who conducted the research with three doctoral students. It was released late Friday to two scholarly websites.

  • School daze: In the SDUT, Kristen Taketa writes that San Diego-area school district leaders say they have proven schools can return to in-person instruction safely.

Parents in San Diego and South County, where COVID-19 has flourished, will have to wait until 2021 for their children to go back to district schools. The prevailing fear is that it’s not yet safe enough in those communities and that reopening schools could lead to more COVID spread.

But in other parts of San Diego County, most school districts have opened and are finding few COVID-19 cases on their campuses, leading school officials and local experts to say that schools do not seem to be hotbeds of COVID-19.

“I don’t have any evidence that the opening of our schools has had any impact on the case rate here locally,” said Andy Johnsen, superintendent of Lakeside Union Elementary in East County.

  • Restaurants: A Chronicle team reports on some of the Bay Area restaurants that closed permanently in October.

Over the last few months, San Francisco and the wider Bay Area has seen a number of restaurants succumb to permanent restaurant closures. During the month of October more restaurants shuttered, including a number of longstanding businesses ranging from the 92-year-old Alfred's Steakhouse to the 85-year-old Harrington’s Bar and Grill. Amid the losses, October also saw several restaurants reopen for indoor dining at 25% capacity throughout the Bay Area, and San Francisco County reinstated indoor dining on September 30. Take a look at some of the permanent restaurant closures throughout October in the Bay Area below.

THE VOTE:

  • 21,896,569 ballots were mailed and 10,540,040 (48%) have been returned, according to the PDI tracker.  The breakdown:
    • Dem: 5,518,149 (54% of those mailed)
    • Rep: 2,448,630 (46% of those mailed)
    • NPP/Other: 2,572,921 (40% of those mailed)
  • By age:
    • 65+: 3,298,003 (67% of those mailed)
    • 50-64: 2,992,275 (52% of those mailed)
    • 35-49: 2,167,798 (42% of those mailed)
    • 18-34: 2,081,754 (34% of those mailed)

On the PDI site, you can look at results based on legislative races and local government. Click "Select for Filters" on the main page

  • Late VBMs: The Supreme Court's actions against counting ballots postmarked by Election Day and received after does not affect California. The rulings were against election administrators who announced they would count them without state legislative approval. In California, the Legislature approved counting ballots postmarked by Election Day and received within 17 days for this election only. After this year, it is expected to return to 3 days.
  • Violence: A team at Southern California News Group reports that police across the country are preparing for post-election violence.

With the COVID-19 pandemic leading millions to mail in their ballots, and the likelihood of post-election court battles, there may not be a decisive count in the presidential race days or even weeks after Election Day. The lack of a clear winner could prompt clashes between protesters and counter-protesters around the nation.

Beverly Hills is closing Rodeo Drive, where merchants have been encouraged to board up stores. Plywood is also going up in downtown San Francisco and Washington, DC. Some cities are eyeing curfews and stocking up on tear gas.

“If Biden wins, there’s the message: Trump, your time is up, get out of office,” said Cat Brooks, an Oakland-based activist and executive director of anti-police-violence group Justice Teams Network. “And then if Trump wins, of course Oakland would be the place where we would want to have voices in the streets screaming loudly that this is not the America we’re willing to live in.”

In Orange County, the sheriff’s department will activate its operations center to monitor any potential unrest, spokeswoman Carrie Braun said. The department has a special unit of more than 800 deputies trained to quickly deploy to trouble spots.

The department has been working with the Registrar of Voters office for a year in preparation for the election. Deputies will guard ballot-collection sites, the Registrar of Voters office and accompany its employees when they collect ballots. The security at the Registrar’s office will continue for a week beyond Election Day.

  • What Tuesday might tell us: AP's Michael R. Blood writes that Tuesday's election may move California to the left.

Tuesday’s election will test the boundaries of California’s left-leaning politics as a new generation of state voters is being asked to roll back affirmative action and property tax laws put in place decades ago.

California is one of the nation’s most Democratic states — the party holds every statewide office, dominates the Legislature and congressional delegation, and outnumbers registered Republicans by nearly 2-to-1.

...

The 12 propositions on the state ballot provide many issues to motivate voters and influence California’s direction on worker protections, crime and punishment, voter rights and rent control.

But the signature questions involve taxes and affirmative action.

Early numbers on both voter registrations and ballots returned in the mail demonstrate they are showing up, and in larger numbers than ever before. But will they throw prove themselves to be a voting bloc that politicians have to court in the same way they do voters in older generations?

What the numbers show in California so far is complicated.

While the turnout in vote-by-mail ballots among Generation Z voters has already exceeded total turnout in 2016 in California, they still won’t make up a huge part of the voting population overall.

“Young people, even with their higher turnout in 2018, were far less likely to participate than those 40 and up,” said Sarah Anzia, a political science professor at University of California, Berkeley. “Even with increases in turnout that I expect to see in 2020, they’re still far, far below the turnout rates of senior citizens and the middle-aged.”

In California, there are an estimated 2.4 million eligible Latino voters between the ages of 18-34. As of Oct. 26, nearly a week before Election Day, about 325,601 of those young Latinos have turned in their ballots early, according to Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc.

These young Latinos are casting their ballots in an election unlike any other. They’re confronted with a global pandemic that has disproportionately impacted Latino communities, nationwide protests over police brutality and a divisive incumbent president running for re-election who has made disparaging remarks about immigrants and Latinos.

“Latinos, in general, have been so hit by coronavirus and unemployment,” said Latino Community Foundation’s CEO Jacqueline Martinez Garcel. “These are the sons and daughters of family members who have been impacted by this.”

We spoke to five young first-time Latino voters to learn more about why they are voting.

ELECTION DAY STRESS: In the Register, Theresa Walker writes that emotional-support hotlines are preparing for a deluge of calls after Tuesday.

In 2016, operators of OC WarmLine, a free county-funded telephone service that provides emotional and mental health support, were surprised by the volume and tone of calls that came their way after the election of Donald Trump.

A lot of anger. A lot of tears.

Nobody saw it coming.

On Election Day itself, the phones were quiet, said Mariam Harris, WarmLine program director, who noted that during many big public events people spend time taking it in on live television.

But in the days and weeks that followed, people called in to vent.But in the days and weeks that followed, people called in to vent. 

CA25 (Santa Clarita-Antelope Valley): Paul Mitchell tweets:

Daily partisan breakdown of #CA25 race shows Reps finally edging out Dems in the ballots returned.

This coming as in-person voting begins and Reps are leading Dems in the in-person votes by a whopping 56-24 margin while Dems are leading among mail/dropbox by a 47-29 margin.

PROP. 15: For CalMatters, Dan Walters asks whether the new funds provided by the split roll property tax will lead to better schools as promised.

Proposition 15, largely sponsored by the California Teachers Association and other public employee unions, would increase property taxes on some commercial real estate, such as office buildings and hotels, by requiring their taxable values to be upgraded more often. Estimates of its effects vary somewhat, but generally are in the $10 billion to $12 billion per year range, with schools getting about 40% of the proceeds.

...

Regardless of Proposition 15’s outcome, the never-ending debate on California education will continue, but it should be a debate about more than money. Some of the academic resources being devoted to persuading Californians to raise taxes for schools should be spent on exploring why outcomes elsewhere bear little or no relationship to how much money other states are spending.

PROP. 22: In the Times, Suhauna Hussain looks at the story of one Uber driver who died of COVID-19 and how Proposition 22 would impact workers compensation death benefits available to families like his.

Through the state-administered workers’ compensation program — created to provide wage replacement and medical benefits to workers who suffer job-related injuries or illnesses — the family might be eligible for at least $320,000 in death benefits, according to a lawyer the Zayyids consulted. Given that his wife, Lamis, and the two of their children who are still teenagers had been dependent on Zayyid’s earnings, the lawyer said the family might even be eligible for additional hundreds of thousands of dollars over the next few years.

Still numb from the loss, the Zayyids filed a workers’ compensation claim. But the claim was shut down. A letter dated Sept. 30 said benefits were denied because Khaled Zayyid had been an independent contractor and never an Uber employee.

As part of Proposition 22, one of the highest-profile measures on Tuesday’s ballot, Californians will decide what should happen to families like the Zayyids.

LA DA: Phil Matier writes in the Chron that SF Mayor London Breed has penned a blistering attack against LA DA candidate George Gascón.

Mayor London Breed has served up a blistering — and personal — election-eve hit on George Gascón, the former San Francisco police chief and district attorney now running for D.A. in Los Angeles, telling Southern California voters to “take into account both his poor record as a D.A. and his lack of character as a public servant.”

“Like countless others who have witnessed Gascón’s brand of ‘leadership’ up close, I have opposed his candidacy from the start and for very simple reasons: Gascón was bad for San Francisco and he would be bad for L.A.,” Breed wrote in a recent opinion piece for the Los Angeles Sentinel, the city’s leading African American newspaper.

LA-LA LAND: The LAT's David Zahniser looks at the race for Herb Wesson's council seat.

The two candidates running to succeed Los Angeles City Councilman Herb Wesson have spent the last year laying out their ideas for tackling two of the issues that have preoccupied City Hall this year: homelessness and political corruption.

But now, with COVID-19 continuing to batter the region’s economy, the winner of Tuesday’s election will be forced to confront an even more urgent topic: the city’s worst budget crisis in at least a decade.

L.A. County Supervisor Mark Ridley-Thomas and attorney Grace Yoo both say they have the experience and qualifications to tackle the revenue shortfall, which is expected to reach at least $400 million by June, threatening police, fire and other services. But they have very different relationships with the city’s political establishment.

OAKLAND POLICE: The Chrons Rachel Swan looks at Oakland's efforts to cut its police budget in half.

 Lives Matter movement, Oakland made an ambitious goal to cut its police budget in half. But the reality is more complicated, with gun violence surging and support dwindling in the neighborhoods most threatened by police violence.

Inspired by the Black

FOOD AND HUNGER: The Chron's Heather Knight reports that with hunger increasing in San Francisco, food banks are scrambling for volunteers.

Nearly eight months into the COVID-19 pandemic, there’s no sign the economic crisis and the desperation in its wake are anywhere near letting up. The problem, though, is that not enough San Franciscans are answering the call for help.

The San Francisco Marin-Food Bank has opened 29 emergency pop-up food pantries around the city to respond to the pandemic — including this one at James Denman Middle School in the Excelsior district every Wednesday. Coupled with its regular work packing food in its giant warehouse and delivering groceries to homebound seniors, the huge undertaking requires an eye-popping 2,000 volunteers per week.

But by early October, half of its volunteer slots went unfilled — a phenomenon nearly unheard of before the pandemic when scoring volunteer slots, especially for those that accept kids, was like winning a lottery ticket.

Meanwhile, in the SDUT, David Garrick looks at local efforts to reduce "food deserts."

San Diego officials say their recent focus on creating racial equity across the city must include a comprehensive plan to address so-called food deserts — which are mostly low-income areas that lack grocery stores that sell fresh produce and other healthy foods.

The city’s efforts will get a boost in January, when the San Diego Food System Alliance is scheduled to unveil a 10-year plan to eradicate food deserts across the county.

While the plan is not complete, alliance members told San Diego City Council members last week that their recommendations will likely include new city policies to encourage more community gardens, farmers markets and subscription farms in neighborhoods lacking grocery stores.

cakeday and classifieds after the jump...

Probolsky Research

CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Leah Barros, Bryan Blum, Sam Liu, and Nelly Nieblas!

Classifieds

Add your classified now both in The Nooner and online for $50/week or $150/month by emailing scottlay@gmail.com, with a headline, a summary of up to 200 words, and what you'd like the end date to be. You can attach a PDF or provide a link for a bigger job description/info to apply. [Other advertising options]


California School Boards Association - Legislative Director

CSBA is seeking a Legislative Director to lead our Governmental Relations team to shape legislative and political strategy for CSBA’s statewide agenda. You will act as a liaison between legislative, educational, and public communities. If you are interested in leading a team of legislative advocates to influence opinion in favor of public education, please apply through our website. Position is located in West Sacramento. Learn more and apply here: https://www.csba.org/About/Careers

Offices available for sublease: Meridian Plaza

Between 1-3 offices are available for sublease in the Meridian Plaza office building, 1415 L Street, two blocks from the Capitol. The offices are approximately 150 SF each. Internet, gym, partially furnished (desk, chair, bookcases) are included. 24/7/365 key card access; floor-ceiling windows facing Sierras; professional offices. One year lease preferred. $1,500 per office. Contact Jane at admin@stoneadvocacy.com or (415) 577-9734 with questions.

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Political Data Inc.
For 30 Years PDI has been California’s premier data vendor. Now, you can get live online trainings on the newest PDI software every week: