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- SacTown Talks (Jarhett Blonien): Senator Tom Umberg (D-Villa Park) Apple Podcasts | YouTube (2020-10-14) (2020-10-29)
- Inside Golden State Politics (Bill Boyarsky and Sherry Jeffe): The U.S. Supreme Court and competitive California congressional races. (2020-10-29)
- Capitol Weekly Podcast (John Howard and Tim Foster) Ten days left with Paul Mitchell (2020-10-25)
- Then There's California (Senate Democratic Caucus): Senator Henry Stern (D-Canoga Park) talks about wildfire and climate change on the 2nd anniversary of the disasterous Woolsey Fire (2020-10-20)
- Capitol Weekly Podcast (John Howard and Tim Foster): UFCW Western States Council legislative and political adviser Caitlin Vega (2020-10-19)
- Political Breakdown (Scott Shafer and Maris Lagos @ KQED): The political fight over voting with Dan Schnur (2020-10-15)
- Inside Golden State Politics (Bill Boyarsky and Sherry Jeffe): Bob Stern joins to talk about the GOP ballot box issue and some of the ballot measures on the November ballot (2020-10-15)
- SacTown Talks (Jarhett Blonien): Assembly member Lisa Calderon Apple Podcasts | YouTube (2020-10-14)
GENERAL ELECTION DATA POINTS
The Nooner for Friday, October 30, 2020, presented by SYASL Partners
- The vote
- Ballot measures
- Prop. 16
- Prop. 25
- Cakeday and classifieds
- A team at the Times reports that the latest spike in LA County has health officials concerned.
There were new alarming signs that COVID-19 was spreading again in Los Angeles County, with officials announcing the highest one-day increase in cases not connected to a reporting backlog since August.
The county reported 1,745 new cases Thursday as well as 19 new deaths. It’s the latest evidence that after declining for several months, the novel coronavirus may be on the rise again in L.A. County and other parts of Southern California.
If the region does see another spike like the one it experienced during the summer, it would threaten efforts to reopen schools and businesses. Already, Southern California has fallen behind the Bay Area when it comes to slowing the infection rate, allowing places such as San Francisco and Silicon Valley to reopen more quickly.
In nearly every major recession, more men lost jobs than women.
But the coronavirus outbreak is an exception. The pandemic and stay-at-home orders decimated industries such as hospitality that had employed a large number of women. Thousands more working mothers quit their job or reduced their working hours to care for their children as schools went online.
Yet, as of September, about 5% of women who were in the state’s labor force in December are unemployed and no longer looking for work, compared to about 2% of the men, according to an analysis from the Public Policy Institute of California.
- 21,896,569 ballots were mailed and 9,158,917 have been returned, according to the PDI tracker. The breakdown:
- Dem: 4,905,911 (49% of those mailed)
- Rep: 2,046,966 (39% of those mailed)
- NPP/Other: 2,026,120 (34% of those mailed)
On the PDI site, you can look at results based on legislative races and local government. Click "Select for Filters" on the main page.
- As I have written before, I wouldn't read too much into the partisan breakdown this year as it is skewed with Democrats voting early and Republicans preferring to vote on person.
As the final weekend before Election Day approaches, approximately 40 percent of California’s electorate, or 8.5 million voters, have already cast their ballots—about double the number a week ago. As more in-person polling places open, experts say the state is on track to have more votes cast than ever before.
One reason is that the state has seen a large increase in voter registration from the 2016 election. California has over 21 million registered voters, according to the Secretary of State’s 60-day election report, compared to just over 18 million people four years ago.
But even adjusting for the increase in registered voters, this election is seeing a surge in voting over 2016. “We’re going to shatter the total vote record – period,” said Paul Mitchell, Vice President of Political Data, Inc.
- The LAT's Kevin Rector and Richard Winton report that LA Mayor Eric Garcetti and LAPD chief Michael Moore said yesterday that county voters should not expect problems voting in Tuesday.
“I don’t want to buy into a narrative that there’s going to be chaos during our election,” Garcetti said Wednesday.
He said there is “no intelligence” suggesting any sort of plot to carry out violence or voter intimidation at L.A. polls, but the city is “very prepared” to protect voters who will be casting ballots.
“We prepare for the worst, but we are hoping and expect generally the best,” he said.
BALLOT MEASURES: For Capitol Weekly, John Howard looks at how the ballot measures are faring in the Capitol Weekly/CA120 polls. [crosstabs] The poll uses email addresses from the voter file reports of those who have already voted. Here are the toplines.
| Proposition 14 – Issues $5. 5 billion in bonds for state stem cell research institute.
| Proposition 15 – Requires commercial and industrial properties to be taxed based on market value and dedicates revenue.
| Proposition 16 – Repeals Proposition 209 of 1996, which said the state cannot discriminate or grant preferential treatment based on race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national origin in public employment, education, or contracting.
| Proposition 17 – Restores the right to vote to people convicted of felonies who are on parole.
| Proposition 18 – Allows 17-year-olds who will be 18 at the time of the next general election to vote in primaries and special elections
| Proposition 19 – Changes tax assessment transfers and inheritance rules.
| Proposition 20 – Makes changes to policies related to criminal sentencing charges, prison release, and DNA collection.
| Proposition 21 – Expands local governments’ power to use rent control.
| Proposition 22 – Considers app-based drivers to be independent contractors and enacts several labor policies related to app-based companies.
| Proposition 23 – Requires physician on-site at dialysis clinics and consent from the state for a clinic to close.
| Proposition 24 – Expands the provisions of the California Consumer Privacy Act, the CCPA, and creates the California Privacy Protection Agency to implement and enforce the CCPA.
| Proposition 25 – A referendum asking voters if they want to keep California’s current cashless bail law.
Last week's PPIC poll of likely voters found more skeptics on several liberal measures. The question is whether turnout is indeed different this year or liberal voters are voting earlier this year and more conservative voters are waiting for Election Day.
PROP. 16: For EdSource, Thomas Peele and Daniel Tillis report on the fundraising lead by backers of Proposition 16, which would reverse Prop. 209's ban on affirmative action.
A progressive coalition that includes the ACLU, the state Democratic Party, the owners of several California professional sports teams and others, Yes on Proposition 16 has raised $19 million in cash through seven campaign committees.
The No on 16 effort, funded by small individual donations, has raised $1.3 million through three committees, according to campaign finance reports analyzed this week.
PROP. 25: The Register's Sean Emory and Brian Rokos dissect the debate over the future of money bail on next week's ballot.
If approved, Proposition 25 would overhaul the pretrial system by doing away with cash bail and instituting a risk assessment system to determine if a defendant should remain behind bars while they await their day in court.
KAMALA: Sophia Bollag reports in The Bee that Governor Newsom joked yesterday about filling Kamala Harris's Senate seat if the Biden/Harris ticket is successful.
Gov. Gavin Newsom says Sacramento Kings player Harrison Barnes is just about the only person he’s talked with recently who hasn’t tried to influence his pick to replace Kamala Harris in the Senate if she’s elected vice president.
“About every other person I run into seems to have a strong opinion,” Newsom said. “I haven’t even processed that decision myself because we’ll have to make that determination after Election Day, whether that’s even an option.”
Newsom chatted with Barnes briefly Thursday morning when he cast his ballot using one of the touch-screen machines at Golden 1 Center downtown.
cakeday and classifieds after the jump...
CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Assembly member Monique Limón, who is also a new mother!
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Legislative Analyst – The City of Ontario
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California School Boards Association - Legislative Director
CSBA is seeking a Legislative Director to lead our Governmental Relations team to shape legislative and political strategy for CSBA’s statewide agenda. You will act as a liaison between legislative, educational, and public communities. If you are interested in leading a team of legislative advocates to influence opinion in favor of public education, please apply through our website. Position is located in West Sacramento. Learn more and apply here: https://www.csba.org/About/Careers
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Between 1-3 offices are available for sublease in the Meridian Plaza office building, 1415 L Street, two blocks from the Capitol. The offices are approximately 150 SF each. Internet, gym, partially furnished (desk, chair, bookcases) are included. 24/7/365 key card access; floor-ceiling windows facing Sierras; professional offices. One year lease preferred. $1,500 per office. Contact Jane at firstname.lastname@example.org or (415) 577-9734 with questions.
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