Around The Capitol

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RECENT PODS:

  • Then There's California (Senate Democratic Caucus): Senator Henry Stern (D-Canoga Park) talks about wildfire and climate change on the 2nd anniversary of the disasterous Woolsey Fire (2020-10-20)
  • Capitol Weekly Podcast (John Howard and Tim Foster): UFCW Western States Council legislative and political adviser Caitlin Vega (2020-10-19)
  • Political Breakdown (Scott Shafer and Maris Lagos @ KQED): The political fight over voting with Dan Schnur (2020-10-15)
  • Inside Golden State Politics (Bill Boyarsky and Sherry Jeffe): Bob Stern joins to talk about the GOP ballot box issue and some of the ballot measures on the November ballot (2020-10-15)
  • SacTown Talks (Jarhett Blonien): Assembly member Lisa Calderon Apple Podcasts | YouTube (2020-10-14)

GENERAL ELECTION DATA POINTS

The Nooner for Saturday, October 24, 2020, presented by SYASL Partners

  • PG&E
  • The vote
  • COVID-19
  • AB 5
  • LA-LA Land
  • Cakeday and classifieds 

Happy Saturday! It's a nice chilly October morning here at Nooner Global HQ. The 10-day forecast is all in the 70s. Although, as much of NorCal is subject to a fire warning, we are really praying for rain. Then again, that weather is not good for COVID let alone the currently stalled flu season.

I'll be short today and you can thank me in advance. I aam still finishing up the coding for this year's election contest with a likely launch one week ahead of election day.

On to the numbers and news...

THE VOTE: Here is the latest from Political Data's ballot tracker. Top-line is 21,508,716 ballots were mailed, with a breakdown of Dem: 43.4%, Rep: 24.2%, and NPP/other: 29.4%. Thus far,  6,368,537 have been returned (29%).

Partisan breakdown of returned ballots is:

  • Democratic: 3,521,386 (35% of mailed)
  • Republican: 1,361,933 (26% of mailed)
  • NPP/other: 1,485,218 (23% of mailed)

The PDI site has breakdowns by congressional and state legislative districts (click "Select for Filters") and a list of the top 25 districts searched.

MONEY MATTERS:

Independent expenditures

  •  

Large ballot measure contributions - cash only excluding in-kind contributions

  •  

Doing the Laundry 
If you're new to this game, this is how special interests can far exceed the $4,700 contribution limit for the November general. I explained the process on 9/15. After passing max $38,800 contributions through party committees, those committees can pass the money along far in excess of the $4,700. It's "washed" as long as the original donor doesn't "direct" the money. Of course, we all know the competitive races. I list them for ATCpro subscribers.

MONEY IN

  •  

MONEY OUT

These don't include state party money. It's just "fun" to watch the flow if you like reading hundreds of campaign finance reports each day. The Republican Party doesn't have much of this activity which would be a good panel discussion to explore why. I have my thoughts. Of course, California's GOP has far less money to go around these days, although there's lots of business-side money found in independent expenditures.

All in the game, yo'.

PG&E: A huge public safety power shutoff in PG&E territory may begin tomorrow through Monday. From the latest release:

PG&E’s Emergency Operations Center, Meteorology team and Wildfire Safety Operations Center are working together and tracking a significant, offshore wind event starting Sunday that is forecast to have the driest humidity levels and the strongest winds of the wildfire season thus far. High fire-risk conditions are expected to arrive Sunday morning. High winds are currently expected to subside Tuesday morning (Oct. 27).

"While there is still uncertainty regarding the strength and timing of this weather wind event, the shutoff is forecasted to affect approximately 466,000 customers in targeted portions of 38 counties (an increase from my earlier email), including: Alameda, Alpine, Amador, Butte, Calaveras, Colusa, Contra Costa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Humboldt, Kern, Lake, Lassen, Madera, Marin, Mariposa, Mendocino, Monterey, Napa, Nevada, Placer, Plumas, San Joaquin, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, Shasta, Sierra, Siskiyou, Solano, Sonoma, Stanislaus, Tehama, Trinity, Tuolumne, Yolo and Yuba."

To put that in perspective, the last shutoff was just north of 50,000 customers. "Customers" are households or businesses. Here is the current forecast map.

In advance of the weather event, Berkeley officials are telling some residents to leave, reports Lauren Hernández in the Chron.

Berkeley officials said residents living in the hills should consider leaving their homes before Sunday afternoon, when dry, windy conditions are expected to bring high fire danger to the Bay Area.

Residents living in the Berkeley hills “should stay on heightened alert, keep phones charged and nearby, and consider leaving the hills before Sunday afternoon — especially if they would have trouble getting out quickly in a fire,” city officials said Friday.

Strong offshore winds and extremely low humidity prompted Pacific Gas & Electric Co. officials to plan power safety shut-offs that could impact 466,086 customer accounts across Northern California and 143,726 in the Bay Area.

The winds and the “record-low moisture levels” are “expected to create the most dangerous fire weather Berkeley has seen so far this year,” city officials said.

The looming shut-off marks the first time this year the utility company has included Berkeley in a public safety power shut-off event, “an indication of how serious this wind event is expected to be,” city officials said.

Southern California is forecasted to have a major Santa Ana winds event, raising the fire risk amidst the dry, warm spell. SoCal's electrical grid is much less reliant on transmission through forested areas and thus the risk of fire from electrical equipment is lower, yet there is a lot of "fuel" and any small fire could explode quickly.

COVID-19: California added 51 deaths yesterday for a total of 17,315.

more after the jump...

LA-LA LAND: While it may have an NBA championship trophy and is nearing a MLB one, the City of Angels has a big bag of red ink, reports David Zahniser for the Times.

The pandemic-driven financial crisis at Los Angeles City Hall has deepened significantly over the past three months, with budget analysts warning the city’s shortfall could reach $400 million to $600 million by the end of the fiscal year.

The grim forecast poses some tough choices for city leaders, with a local economy battered by coronavirus shutdowns that have sent unemployment soaring, caused many small businesses to close and now threaten major cuts in municipal services.

In an update sent Friday to Mayor Eric Garcetti and various council members, City Administrative Officer Rich Llewellyn voiced alarm over the magnitude of the latest projected revenue shortfall, which covers the fiscal year ending June 30.

A $400-million budget gap would represent 6% of the 2020-21 budget and exhaust all but $14 million of the city’s various reserve funds, wrote Llewellyn, the city’s top budget official.

AB 5 (Gonzalez): Eleven days before voters will decide on Prop. 22, the First District Court of Appeal yesterday upheld the injunction requiring Uber and Lyft to treat drivers as employees. Whether this is solved in court (Lyft has indicated it will appeal to SCOCAL) or at the ballot box ten days from now is up in the air.

cakeday and classifieds after the jump...

Probolsky Research

CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Assembly members Sabrina Cervantes and Vince Fong, Michelle Dowling, and Rep. Brad Sherman!

Classifieds

Add your classified now both in The Nooner and online for $50/week or $150/month by emailing scottlay@gmail.com, with a headline, a summary of up to 200 words, and what you'd like the end date to be. You can attach a PDF or provide a link for a bigger job description/info to apply. [Other advertising options]


CCST Report Release: The Cost of Wildfires in California

How do you put a price on the devastating impacts of wildfire in California? As California endures its most destructive wildfire season to date, a new study from the California Council on Science and Technology assesses what we do and do not know about the societal costs of wildfire impacts. The study’s steering committee chair Michael Wara of Stanford and the lead authors will discuss the report’s findings and recommendations to help the state meet this challenge. Thurs, Oct 29, 12:30-1:30pm REGISTER.

Legislative Analyst – The City of Ontario

The City of Ontario is seeking a Legislative Analyst to play a critical role in navigating the City through the legislative process. This position will keep City officials up to date on pending and proposed legislation and any related issues that may impact City operations. In addition, the Legislative Analyst may assist the Assistant City Manager through attendance at meetings of federal, state, and local agencies, associations, organizations, committees, or other forums. Duties also include preparing statements of support or objection for proposed legislation and working with the City's state and federal lobbyists to craft successful strategies for legislative advocacy. Learn more and apply here: https://www.governmentjobs.com/careers/ontario

The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific

In addition to a well-respected JD, the McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees. Both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working succeed in the program. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a foundation in statutory interpretation and skills in public policy making and implementation. Learn at a beautiful campus three miles from the State Capitol:
go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy

California School Boards Association - Public Affairs & Community Engagement Representatives

Serve as CSBA’s liaison to local schools and county boards of education, key decision makers, and the community-at-large. Execute grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. Remote positions based in the following locations: Southeast L.A. and North L.A./Ventura. Salary based on experience. Please apply at: https://www.csba.org/About/Careers

California School Boards Association - Legislative Director

CSBA is seeking a Legislative Director to lead our Governmental Relations team to shape legislative and political strategy for CSBA’s statewide agenda. You will act as a liaison between legislative, educational, and public communities. If you are interested in leading a team of legislative advocates to influence opinion in favor of public education, please apply through our website. Position is located in West Sacramento. Learn more and apply here: https://www.csba.org/About/Careers

Offices available for sublease: Meridian Plaza

Between 1-3 offices are available for sublease in the Meridian Plaza office building, 1415 L Street, two blocks from the Capitol. The offices are approximately 150 SF each. Internet, gym, partially furnished (desk, chair, bookcases) are included. 24/7/365 key card access; floor-ceiling windows facing Sierras; professional offices. One year lease preferred. $1,500 per office. Contact Jane at admin@stoneadvocacy.com or (415) 577-9734 with questions.

Photos: 1 | 2 | 3

Political Data Inc.
For 30 Years PDI has been California’s premier data vendor. Now, you can get live online trainings on the newest PDI software every week: