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GENERAL ELECTION DATA POINTS
The Nooner for Monday, October 19, 2020, presented by SYASL Partners
FREE VERSION READERS: Thank you to those who have already chipped in! If I haven't emailed you thanks yet, it should be coming later today. These are long days (14-16 hours is not exaggerating with all these campaign finance reports). Advertising revenue (particularly classifieds) is still down, currently about $1,400/month -- almost my rent. Square | Venmo to scott@scottlay.com | PayPal | Other options Well, hello there. Traditional and online voter registration ends today. Paper registrations must be postmarked or turned in to county elections offices by today and online registrations must be completed by midnight. After this, potential voters will be able to conditionally register and vote at Vote Centers as they open leading up to Election Day. Dodgers come back from a 3-1 NLCS deficit to advance to the World Series, the 49ers beat the Rams, and I got my clean sheets on before bedtime including the fitted sheet on the first try. That last feat usually requires eight Tetris-style moves. Game One of the World Series betweent the Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays is tomorrow at 5:09pm at Globe Life Field in Arlington, TX. Oddly, lots of Californians are rooting for Florida in the series out of the enemy-of-my-enemy is my friend construct. Rooting for Florida in an election year. 2020 really is an alternate universe. On to the numbers and news... THE VOTE: Here is the latest from Political Data's ballot tracker. Topline is 21,508,716 ballots were mailed, with a breakdown of Dem: 43.4%, Rep: 24.2%, and NPP/other: 29.4%. Thus far, 3,037,970 have been returned (14%). Partisan breakdown of returned ballots is:
The PDI site has breakdowns by congressional and state legislative districts (click "Select for Filters") and a list of the top 25 districts searched. MONEY MATTERS: Sundays are generally a quiet reporting day and yesterday reflected that. Independent expenditures
CONGRESSIONAL DOUGH: Here are the bottom lines on the nine most watched congressional races from the spreadsheet I provided ATCpro subscribers over the weekend:
THE PORTER JUGGERNAUT AND THE SENATE: What's striking about the above numbers is first-term Rep. Katie Porter's (D-CA45) fundraising prowess. In the third quarter, she had $5,215,296 in contributions and $2,989,885 in expenses for a net of $2,225,411. As reflected above, she had a 9/30 net cash on hand of $8,924,633. In comparison, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez had $4,095,149 in contributions, $3,074,599 in expenditures, and ended with $4,011,806. I haven't had time for a full analysis, but Porter is among the top first-term fundraisers, if not the top. The question of course is what's next for Porter as being an assertive member on House Financial Services is unlikely her goal. Jumping to House Democratic leadership seems unlikely for a few more terms, particularly with a bit of California fatigue among members. Most mentioned is the United States Senate as she is well positioned financially second only to Adam Schiff (COH: $12,093,749) for a run. Remember, funds raised at the state level cannot be transferred to federal accounts because corporate cash is intermingled at the state level and prohibited at the federal level and contribution limits are higher at the state level. So, let's talk Senate. With the Biden-Harris ticket favored to win even after reassessing in light of the 2016 Democratic debacle, aspirants to an open Senate seat salivating and sending Governor Gavin Newsom virtual flowers (for the early web users, you remember when that was a thing). The first open seat, presumably that currently occupied by Harris, is very likely to be filled by Governor Newsom by a Latino. Secretary of State Alex Padilla has the most overt ambition for the seat, while Attorney General Xavier Becerra has expressed interest. Becerra, who was appointed AG to fill Harris's seat by Governor Jerry Brown and took the office in January 2017, has a few advantages. First, Becerra has familiarity with the people around the D.C. Capitol. He was chair of the Democratic Caucus for four years before his AG appointment, the fifth-highest Dem leadership post. He passed on joining the 2016 primary and likely gained favor with Harris. For those who remember, Harris and Newsom had a common campaign consulting team and there was essentially an agreement that Kamala would run for Senate and Newsom, with executive experience from San Francisco and the title of Lt. Governor, would run for the corner office. Becerra staying out of that Senate race helped facilitate the Harris-Newsom vision. Finally, as I mentioned above, state campaign funds can't be transferred to federal races. Becerra had $1.4 million on hand in his congressional campaign account as of September 30. Whomever Governor Newsom would appoint to a potential vacancy in Harris's seat, the person would have to run in 2022, so money is important even though Becerra's $1.4 million is a pittance for a statewide run. Padilla, however, has a compelling case to make to Newsom. While Becerra can run for reelection to AG in 2022, Padilla is termed-out as Secretary of State with nowhere to go unless he wants to run for state Controller. The only open statewide offices in 2022 are Controller and Secretary of State and those are likely to be crowded primaries with plenty of legislators facing term limits. If Republican Mike Garcia wins reelection to a full term in November, Padilla would be a strong recruit to take him on in 2022. Demotion from SOS? Yes, but he would be beloved by party leaders for taking on the challenge. If Governor Newsom seeks to address both those calling for a Latino Senator as well as another woman, former Secretary of Labor and Member of Congress and current Fifth District L.A. Supervisor Hilda Solis is the most often mentioned choice. That would pave the way for appointment of Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon to the supe seat. Rendon faces term limits in 2024, and supervisors are paid $214,601/year to $132,107 + per diem for the Speaker. If Becerra or Padilla were to be appointed as Senator, a second seat vacancy appointment would almost certainly go to a woman. While a retirement by Speaker Nancy Pelosi is widely speculated to occur before 2022 when she has promised to give up the gavel, senior Senator Dianne Feinstein has not sent any signals. If Democrats take over the Senate next month and she gets the Judiciary Committee chairmanship, she might stay. If Democrats fall short, she may not. Regardless, the seat is expected to be open in 2024, when Feinstein will be 91. With a vacancy in Feinstein's seat before 2024, Porter would be on the short list for appointment. If it is an open seat in 2024, look for several strong candidates including Porter and Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) and perhaps whoever drew wasn't chosen for Harris seat if it is open next year. If you thought 2021 was an "off year," there will very likely be plenty to be talking about. COVID-19: California added 36 deaths yesterday for a total of 16,968. The usual caution of the weekend lull in reporting applies, although the trend continues to look good. TRAVEL AND LEISURE: For CalMatters, Dan Walters looks at the cases of Anaheim and Sacramento, both of which have borrowed significant money for expansion of entertainment venues that have been closed for most of the year because of the pandemic. In Anaheim, it was bonds for improvements to the convention center and area around Disneyland California Adventure and in Sacramento it was for the city's share of the Golden 1 Center arena and expansion and remodel of the convention and community centers. Anaheim's debt service counted on hotel tax revenues and money gained from the opening of Disney's second park. In Sacramento, the debt is supposed to be paid by hotel taxes and downtown parking revenues associated with arena events. Hotels are closed or have super low occupancies, there are no events at the arena or convention centers, and theme parks continue to be closed. That means that the general funds for both cities are on the hook. These examples play out across the state, particularly on cities that welcome large conventions, such as the big ones San Francisco, San José, Los Angeles, Riverside, and San Diego (yes, my mind works north to south). The dollar total is smaller in small to mid-size cities that are popular for conferences -- Monterey, Palm Springs/Indian Wells, Ontario -- but the financial impact is equally dire. Additionally, there's no flipping the switch either on theme parks or conferences. Places of gathering -- theme parks and movies -- are prepared for a long haul of assuring patrons that the environment is safe to return to. For conventions and conferences, it's even more problematic. Already, some major tech conferences that are regulars in San Francisco and San José have gone completely virtual, relocated, or cancelled through 2022 at the earliest. For Nooner newbies, I used to be CEO of a higher education association that had several large conferences. I don't follow the day-to-day activities in that world anymore, but scrambling to put together a conference in early 2021 is a longshot even if allowed by health orders. That's for two reasons -- logistics and willingness of would-be attendees to return to conference-type events. FIRES:
more after the jump... FROM THE DESK OF THE DEAN: The LAT's George Skelton looks at the three criminal justice-related measures on the November ballot -- Proposition 17, Proposition 20, and Proposition 25.
PROP. 19 (property tax base transfer): In the Times, Liam Dillon looks and who wins and who loses under Proposition 19, the property tax base transfer measure for seniors and wildfire victims.
PROP. 22 (transportation network companies): The LAT's Suhauna Hussain looks at the impact of users of "gig" transportation network companies if Proposition 22 fails.
L.A. SUPE: The LAT's Jaclyn Cosgrove looks at how policing reform has reshaped the race for the second district on the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors.
In March, Wesson garnered 90,597 votes with Mitchell placing second with 87,914. However, 124,417 votes were spread among five other candidates including Jan Perry, the former Los Angeles city councilmember, who placed third with 36,099. This is a wild race. For those not keeping track, Holly "Just Sippin' My Tea" Mitchell isn't term-limited until 2022 and is still chair of Senate Budget. cakeday and classifieds after the jump... CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Bethany Daniels, former Assembly member Mike Gatto, Mehran Khodabandeh, and state Controller Betty Yee! ClassifiedsAdd your classified now both in The Nooner and online for $50/week or $150/month by emailing scottlay@gmail.com, with a headline, a summary of up to 200 words, and what you'd like the end date to be. You can attach a PDF or provide a link for a bigger job description/info to apply. [Other advertising options]CCST Report Release: The Cost of Wildfires in California How do you put a price on the devastating impacts of wildfire in California? As California endures its most destructive wildfire season to date, a new study from the California Council on Science and Technology assesses what we do and do not know about the societal costs of wildfire impacts. The study’s steering committee chair Michael Wara of Stanford and the lead authors will discuss the report’s findings and recommendations to help the state meet this challenge. Thurs, Oct 29, 12:30-1:30pm REGISTER. Legislative Analyst – The City of Ontario The City of Ontario is seeking a Legislative Analyst to play a critical role in navigating the City through the legislative process. This position will keep City officials up to date on pending and proposed legislation and any related issues that may impact City operations. In addition, the Legislative Analyst may assist the Assistant City Manager through attendance at meetings of federal, state, and local agencies, associations, organizations, committees, or other forums. Duties also include preparing statements of support or objection for proposed legislation and working with the City's state and federal lobbyists to craft successful strategies for legislative advocacy. Learn more and apply here: https://www.governmentjobs.com/careers/ontario The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific In addition to a well-respected JD, the McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees. Both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working succeed in the program. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a foundation in statutory interpretation and skills in public policy making and implementation. Learn at a beautiful campus three miles from the State Capitol: California School Boards Association - Public Affairs & Community Engagement Representatives Serve as CSBA’s liaison to local schools and county boards of education, key decision makers, and the community-at-large. Execute grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. Remote positions based in the following locations: Southeast L.A. and North L.A./Ventura. Salary based on experience. Please apply at: https://www.csba.org/About/Careers California School Boards Association - Legislative Director CSBA is seeking a Legislative Director to lead our Governmental Relations team to shape legislative and political strategy for CSBA’s statewide agenda. You will act as a liaison between legislative, educational, and public communities. If you are interested in leading a team of legislative advocates to influence opinion in favor of public education, please apply through our website. Position is located in West Sacramento. Learn more and apply here: https://www.csba.org/About/Careers Offices available for sublease: Meridian Plaza Between 1-3 offices are available for sublease in the Meridian Plaza office building, 1415 L Street, two blocks from the Capitol. The offices are approximately 150 SF each. Internet, gym, partially furnished (desk, chair, bookcases) are included. 24/7/365 key card access; floor-ceiling windows facing Sierras; professional offices. One year lease preferred. $1,500 per office. Contact Jane at admin@stoneadvocacy.com or (415) 577-9734 with questions. Political Data Inc. For 30 Years PDI has been California’s premier data vendor. Now, you can get live online trainings on the newest PDI software every week: |