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GENERAL ELECTION DATA POINTS
The Nooner for Monday, October 12, 2020, presented by SYASL Partners
- The 2020 election contest
- The vote
- General congressional ballot
- Monrey matters
- State Senate
- CA50 (E. San Diego County)
- Prop. 25 (bail reform referendum)
- Flavored tobacco referendum
- From the Desk of the Dean
- Public health
- Cakeday and classifieds
¡Buenos dias y feliz martes! The Supreme Court hearings in the United States Senate started this morning. I'll be building the election contest over the next few days. Here are the races I'm currently thinking of including:
- CA21 (Coalinga-Lemoore-South Bakersfield)
- CA25 (Santa Clarita-Antelope Valley)
- CA39 (North OC)
- CA48 (OC beach cities)
- CA49 (S. OC, N. SD coast)
- CA50 (East SD county)
- CA53 (San Diego)
- SD11 (San Francisco)
- SD15 (San José)
- SD21 (Santa Clarita-Antelope Valley)
- SD23 (Redlands)
- SD29 (Diamond Bar-Fullerton)
- SD37 (Anaheim Hills-Irvine-OC beach cities)
- AD13 (Stockton)
- AD42 (Cathedral City, Twenty-Nine Palms, Yucaipa)
- AD55 (Diamond Bar-Yorba Linda)
- AD59 (S. Los Angeles)
- AD68 (Irvine)
- AD72 (Garden Grove-Westminster)
- AD74 (OC Beach Cities-Costa Mesa-Irvine)
- TIE-BREAKER: % of vote on Proposition 15 (split roll)
THE VOTE: Political Data is out with its ballot tracker. Topline is 21,508,716 ballots mailed, with a breakdown of Dem: 43.4%, Rep: 24.2%, and NPP/other: 29.4%. Thus far, 279,543 have been returned (1%). Partisan breakdown is Dem: 2%, Rep: 1%, NPP/other: 1% of ballots mailed. The site has breakdowns by conressional and state legislative districts.
GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL: On this date in 2018, the generic congressional average was D+6.9 and today is D+6.6.
- SD05 (San Joaquin): $5,000 for digital ads in SUPPORT of Susan Talamentes Eggman (D) by Equality California
- SD11 (San Francisco): $62,500 for digital ads in SUPPORT of Scott Wiener (D-D race) by the California Association of Realtors
- SD11 (San Francisco): $33,687 for mail in SUPPORT of Scott Wiener (D-D race) by the California Association of Realtors
- SD15 (San José): $135,796 for mail in SUPPORT of Dave Cortese (D-D race) by Valley Neighborhoods United for Dave Cortese for State Senate 2020 (CA Dental Association)
- SD15 (San José): $87,271 for mail to OPPOSE Dave Cortese (D-D race) by Silicon Valley JobsPAC, Sponsored by the California Chamber of Commerce
- SD21 (Santa Clarita-Antelope Valley): $169,191 for digital, mail in SUPPORT of Scott Wilk (R) by Coalition to Restore California's Middle Class, Including Energy Companies who Produce Gas, Oil, Jobs and Pay Taxes
- SD21 (Santa Clarita-Antelope Valley): $97,748 for digital, mail to OPPOSE of Kipp Mueller (D) by Coalition to Restore California's Middle Class, Including Energy Companies who Produce Gas, Oil, Jobs and Pay Taxes
- SD23 (Redlands): $48,283 for digital, mail in SUPPORT of Rosalicie Ochoa Bogh (R) by Coalition to Restore California's Middle Class, Including Energy Companies who Produce Gas, Oil, Jobs and Pay Taxes
- SD23 (Redlands): $136,379 for digital, mail to OPPOSE Abigail Medina (D) by Coalition to Restore California's Middle Class, Including Energy Companies who Produce Gas, Oil, Jobs and Pay Taxes
- SD29 (Diamond Bar-Fullerton): $167,299 for digital, mail to OPPOSE Josh Newman (D) by Coalition to Restore California's Middle Class, Including Energy Companies who Produce Gas, Oil, Jobs and Pay Taxes
- SD29 (Diamond Bar-Fullerton): $276,602 for digital, mail in SUPPORT of Ling Ling Chang (R) by Coalition to Restore California's Middle Class, Including Energy Companies who Produce Gas, Oil, Jobs and Pay Taxes
- SD29 (Diamond Bar-Fullerton): $68,218 for mail to OPPOSE Ling Ling Chang (R) by Opportunity PAC (labor)
- SD37 (Anaheim Hills-Irvine-OC beach cities): $6,880 in SUPPORT of Dave Min (D) by California Professional Firefighters
- SD37 (Anaheim Hills-Irvine-OC beach cities): $88,745 for mail to OPPOSE John M.W. Moorlach (R) by Opportunity PAC (labor)
- AD13 (Stockton): $75,246 for mail to OPPOSE Kathy Miller (D-D race) by Coalition to Restore California's Middle Class, Including Energy Companies who Produce Gas, Oil, Jobs and Pay Taxes
- AD42 (Cathedral City, Twenty-Nine Palms, Yucaipa): $5,000 for digital ads in SUPPORT of Chad Mayes (NPP) by Equality California
- AD59 (South LA): $15,000 for WEB in SUPPORT of Efren Martinez (D-D race) by Padres y familias por Efren Martinez para Assembly 2020 patrocinado por EdVoice
- AD68 (Irvine): $27,862 for mail in SUPPORT of Melissa Fox (D) by California Professional Firefighters
- Multiple races: $10,000-20,000 each for digital ads in SUPPORT of 40 Assembly Democrats
Large ballot measure contributions
- No on 16 (affirmative action): $15,620 from 15 donors
- No on 21 (rent control): $5,087,021 from 9 donors, including $1.833 from Equity Residential (Los Angeles), and $1.5 million from AvalonBay Communities (Arlington, VA), $1.26 million from UDR, Inc. (Highland, CO), and $1.028 from Prometheus (San Mateo, CA)
FAKE DROPBOXES: Meanwhile, in WaPo, Katie Shepherd reports on appparently illegal ballot dropboxes installed by the GOP in Southern California,
The metal boxes have popped up around Southern California in recent weeks, from churches to gun stores to gyms. On the front, an authoritative-looking sign beckons to voters: “Official ballot drop-off box.”
The California GOP has pushed voters to pop their mail-in ballots inside. Social media posts have advertised their locations, and one regional field director posted a photo to Twitter on Friday showing him holding a ballot in front of one of the boxes.
“Doing my part and voting early,” Jordan Tygh wrote in the now-deleted tweet, which was reviewed by The Washington Post before it was removed. “DM me for convenient locations to drop your ballot off at!”
But those containers, which were first reported by the Orange County Register and KCAL, are not county-authorized ballot drop-off sites. In fact, the unofficial boxes are against the law, state officials said Sunday.
The Register, Alicia Robinson and Brooke Staggs report:
The California Secretary of State has received reports in recent days about possible unauthorized ballot drop boxes in Fresno, Los Angeles and Orange counties, agency spokesman Sam Mahood said Sunday evening. Reports place such boxes at local political party offices, candidate headquarters and churches.
Secretary of State Alex Padilla said his office is coordinating with local elections officials to look into the reports.
Only county elections officials can oversee ballot drop boxes, choosing the number, location, hours of operation and other details. County registrars are charged with making sure every box follows strict state guidelines for security, including making sure they can’t be tampered with and tracing the chain of custody of all ballots.
The Secretary of State's summary of the memo is as follows:
Our office has been made aware of unauthorized, non-official ballot drop boxes being used or having been proposed to be used at local political party offices, candidate headquarters, and churches throughout the state. Examples provided to our office include boxes or containers labeled simply as “ballot drop boxes,” while others have been designated misleadingly as “official ballot drop boxes.”.
STATE SENATE: In The Bee, Hannah Wiley looks at the State Senate outlook.
California Republicans already have limited sway in the state Capitol, holding just 11 of the 40 seats in the Senate.
It could get even worse for the GOP on Nov. 3.
Three incumbents this year are fighting for their political lives in purple districts once considered conservative strongholds. The state party is also working hard to keep a currently red open seat from turning blue.
“All four of those seats are competitive. It’s possible Republicans could lose all four,” said Republican consultant Rob Stutzman. “They largely reflect these districts that continue to morph under the feet of these Republicans.”
CA50 (East San Diego County): For KPBS, and David Wasborn report that local CA50 Democrats are unhappy with Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) for an interview he gave to a right-wing group iin which he wavered on the presidential election.
Ammar Campa-Najjar is the Democratic candidate for the 50th District U.S. House seat. Yet last week, he told the far-right group Defend East County he’s not sure who he’ll support for president, Joe Biden or Donald Trump.
“I don’t care who wins, I will work with whoever,” Campa-Najjar said in the Oct. 7 interview, which was posted on the group’s private Facebook page. “You think I will vote for Biden necessarily, I still want to see how they perform in the debates.”
Campa-Najjar angered local Democrats both with his comments and his decision to do the interview with Justin Haskins, the group’s founder.
Campa-Najjar did say he had voted for Biden in the March Primary. The 31-year-old also said in the interview that he would likely support Judge Amy Coney Barrett’s confirmation to the U.S. Supreme Court and, if elected, would consider investigating Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. He also reiterated stances he’s previously made in support of Trump’s border wall and against his impeachment.
In an interview with KPBS on Saturday, Campa-Najjar walked back some of the statements he made to Haskins.
PROP 25 (bail reform referendum): In The Bee, Jason Pohl writes that a surge in domestic violence cases in Sacramento County is keeping the bail bond indusatry alive.
- August Fire (Mendocino, Humboldt, Trinity, Tehama, Glenn, Lake, Colusa counties) 1,028,801 acres, 75% contained as of 9:00am
- Creek Fire (Fresno, Madera counties) 333,350 acres, 5% contained as of 9:23am
- SQF Complex (Tulare County) 167,388 acres, 70% containes as of 9:25am
- Glass Fire (Napa, Sonoma counties) 67,484 acres, 95% contained as of 9:16am
- 1,555 structures destroyed
- Zogg Fire (Shasta County) 56,338 acres, 99% contained as of 6:55am
- 4 fatalities; 204 structures
COVID-19: California added 10 deaths yesterday for a total of 16,575. The usual uneven weekend reporting caveat applies.
-Testing: In the Chron, Aidin Vaziri asks whether rapid at-home COVID-19 testing will be a game-changer.
More than two months after federal authorities set out guidelines for at-home coronavirus tests, kits are trickling out to consumers.
Last week, Safeway and Albertsons stores in the Bay Area started offering over-the-counter coronavirus kits. The tests, which are available after a pharmaceutical screening, cost $140 each and offer results within 72 hours after they are processed at a medical lab.
But hopes are high that cheaper and faster rapid SARS-CoV-2 tests, which can report results within minutes, will become widely available in the United States in the next few months, helping curb the pandemic and put the country one step closer to normalcy.
-School daze: For the Redding Record Searchlight, Nada Atlegh reports on the return to in-person instruction last week at the Redding School District.
The district's transition from the hybrid schedule to in-person instruction caused a stir among teachers, who have been reassigned classes and grade levels or gained and lost students as a result of the shift.
In a unanimous vote, the district's board of trustees previously decided to make the move to the five-day-a-week, on-campus schedule with health and safety precautions due to coronavirus.
-Disneyland: Joel Fox writes about the impact of the COVID-19 closure is having on Disland and its employees.
-Cal/OSHA: For CalMatters, Jackie Botts reports on enforcement of California workplace safety laws during COVID-19.
A CalMatters analysis shows that Cal/OSHA dispatches inspectors in just 5% of COVID complaint cases. Non-COVID complaints were more than twice as likely to result in on-site inspections — but that’s still far below the pre-pandemic share.
-Gyms: In the Chron, Rusty Simmons reports that outdoor gyms may be here to stay after the pandemic is over.
"Outdoor fitness is here to stay,” [Yotam] Israeli said. “There are a lot of people who won’t feel comfortable returning to an indoor gym until there’s a vaccine, and others who might never go back.”
24 Hour Fitness of San Ramon, Gold’s Gym and Town Sports International, all indoor titans, have recently filed for bankruptcy protection, and it doesn’t stop with the big-box gyms. Independent and boutique fitness centers have been decimated by months of closures.
Meanwhile, some gyms are rechatectorize their operations as medican centers to operate indoors CalMatters, Barbara Feder Ostrov writes: //for CalMatters.
PG&E: Vincent Moleski reports in The Bee that PG&E is cautioning that the hot, windy weather heading to Northern California could leads to a return of blackouts. Meanwhile, this morning Assembly Energy and Commerce is scheduled to hear from the California Public Utilities Commission, California Energy Commissioner and the California Independent System Operator on the August 14-15 blackouts.
FROM THE DESK OF THE DEAN: In the Times, George Skelton writes that Gavin Newsom's environmental passions could be tracked to his childhood pet, a river otter owned by his father known as Potter.
Now we get it: Gov. Gavin Newsom was first inspired to fight climate change and protect the environment by his childhood pet — Potter, the river otter.
Some of us thought Gov. Jerry Brown was a bit strange. But he didn’t cozy up to a river otter as a little kid. Nor was Brown particularly concerned about insects — at least that we know about. Newsom was and is.
Newsom told reporters about his early introduction to environmental causes last week while unveiling yet another executive order — this one to protect 30% of California’s land and coastal waters in their semi-natural state by 2030.
For CalMatters, Dan Walters is skeptical about the latest orders from the governor.
The first declared that California will ban the sale of vehicles powered by internal combustion engines by 2035, but the order only directed the Air Resources Board to explore how that might be done.
The second, issued last week, directed state agencies to devise ways to “protect” 30% of California’s land and coastal waters by 2030 to reduce greenhouse gases and promote biodiversity, boasting that California would be the first state to adopt the “30-by-30” program being advocated globally.
“Once again, California is taking on the mantle of global climate leadership and advancing bold strategies to fight climate change,” Newsom said. “The science is clear that, in our existential fight against climate change, we must build on our historic efforts in energy and emissions and focus on our lands as well.”
But what does “protect” actually mean?
FLAVORED TOBACCO REFERENDUM: For The Bee, Andrew Scheeler reports that Gavin Newsom has come out against the referendum over California's news law banning flavored tobacco. Newsom signed SB 793 on August 28. If the referendum garners 623,212 valid signatures within 90 days of that date, the law will be put on hold until the November 8, 2022 election.
POLICING: In the LAT, Kevin Rector writes that few LAPD officers report few cases of uses of force among their peers.
With a new state law requiring police officers to report excessive force by their peers, a Los Angeles police commissioner this summer asked department commanders how many times such reporting had occurred in the last five years.
The answer that Dale Bonner got back, in a July email obtained by The Times through a public records request, was five. When The Times asked for a synopsis of the five incidents, LAPD officials said that the number was actually two.
PUBLIC HEALTH: The LAT's Jack Dolan and Brittny Mejia report that state regulators have opened an investigation into delays for access to specialt healh cae in the Los Angeles County Public Health system.
As current and former doctors in Los Angeles County’s public hospital system condemn delays in providing specialist care, California regulators have launched a review of the long, sometimes deadly waits faced by patients who need treatment from one of the nation’s largest public health systems.
The actions come in the wake of a Times investigation that found patients of the Los Angeles County Department of Health Services face agonizing delays to see specialists after referrals from primary care providers, leaving many with intolerable pain, worsening illnesses and a growing sense of hopelessness. The Times report included several patients who died of the conditions they waited to have treated.
cakeday and classifieds after the jump...
CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Chris Chafee, Tony Madrigal, and Tim Sbranti!
Belated birthday greetings to Gavin Newsom (Saturday)!
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The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific
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Serve as CSBA’s liaison to local schools and county boards of education, key decision makers, and the community-at-large. Execute grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. Remote positions based in the following locations: Southeast L.A. and North L.A./Ventura. Salary based on experience. Please apply at: https://www.csba.org/About/Careers
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