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GENERAL ELECTION DATA POINTS
- Election Day: 52 days
- Ballots mailed to all California registered voters: 23 days (w/in 5 days)
- RealClearPolitics presidential average: Biden 50.5, Trump: 43.0% (8/28-9/10): Biden+7.5
- RealClearPolitics generic congressional average: Dems+6.0 (8/1-9/10)
- No on 15 (split roll): $4,480,000 in four contributions, including $4.3 million from the California Business Roundtable
- No on 20 (public safety): $75,000 from the ACLU of Northern California Issues Committee
- No on 21 (rent control): $1,070,100 in five contributions, including $1,000,000 from the California Business Roundtable
- No on 22 (transportation network companies): $1,000,000 from United Food & Commercial Workers Local 770 and $900,000 from SEIU
- No on 23 (dialysis): $7,840,505 from Fresenius Medical Care and $2,286,308 from US Renal Care
- AD68 (Irvine): Keeping Californians Working, a Coalition of Housing Providers, Energy and Insurance Agents to OPPOSE Melissa Fox (D) - $122,958
- AD68 (Irvine): Keeping Californians Working, a Coalition of Housing Providers, Energy and Insurance Agents to SUPPORT Steven Choi (R) - $79,482
ATCpro SUBSCRIBER UPDATES: [A full list of recent election analysis is on the subscribers home page. If you have forgotten or haven't set a password, use the forgot password tool]
- CA08 (SB High Desert-Barstow-Eastern Sierra): updated analysis - move from Likely Rep to Safe Rep
The Nooner for Saturday, September 12, 2020, presented by SYASL Partners
- Split roll
- Stem cell bond
- San Diego tourism
- Cakeday and classifieds
Happy Saturday! I was all settled in to watch the Giants game last night, but the game was postponed after a member of the Giants organization tested positive of COVID-19. Today's game against the Padres has also been postponed. Now there's talk of postponing tomorrow's 49ers opener because of the air quality situation.
-The numbers: 173 more Californians lost their lives to COVID-19 yesterday, bringing the total to 14,269. The Times reports:
Coronavirus can infect people so rapidly that it has continued to spread despite shutdown orders aimed at slowing the growth of new cases and flattening the line below.
The number of cases in California is now on pace to double every 152.6 days, a number used to measure how quickly the virus is spreading.
- Defiance: In the Bee, Molly Burke reports that Zuda Yoga in Midtown Sacramento is holding classes indoors in defiance of the county health order.
On Friday, about 15 people arrived at the studio on 19th Street for an in-person, indoor class at noon. While some wore masks up to the front door, others entered maskless. The class was advertised on the Zuda Beyond Instagram account.
The Zuda app, which can be used to book classes, shows other classes, several a day, on the schedule.
-The numbers: 20 fatalities have been tallied and 6,3.43 structures destroyed or damaged in the Caliifornia fires. Five of the state's 20 largest fires in California history have occurred in 2020, with 3,154,107 acres burned.
Here are the five biggest currently burning:
- August Complex (Mendocino, Humboldt counties): 491,239 acres, with 25% containment (last night)
- SCU Lightning Complex (Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa, San Joaquin, Stanislaus counties): 396,624 acres, with 98% containment as of 7:14am
- LNU Lightning Complex (Napa, Sonoma, Lake, Yolo, Solano counties): 363,220 acres, with 95% containment as of 9:22am
- North Complex (Plumas, Butte, Yuba counties): 252,313 acreas. with 21% containment as of 8:48am
- Creek Fire (Fresno, Madera counties): 196,667 acres, with 6% containment as of 9:31am
-Newsom: Governor Newsom tours fire, calls climate change a "damn emergency," reports Rachel Becker for CalMatters.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom vowed today to accelerate the state’s efforts to tackle climate change, announcing “this is a climate damn emergency” after surveying the fire-ravaged Oroville State Recreation Area.
Ten people have died in the North Complex Fire, which has burned more than a quarter million acres of Plumas, Butte and Yuba counties and destroyed 2,000 structures since it began 23 days ago. The wildfire, one of 28 throughout the state, is only 23% contained.
California wildfires have already killed 19 people this year and burned more than 3.1 million acres, an area bigger than Connecticut, according to the state’s firefighting agency Cal Fire. That acreage is 26 times more than the amount that burned by this time last year. And the worst may be yet to come: California’s most destructive wildfires have historically flared up in the fall.
-Trump: For Politico, Carla Marinucci reports that after three weeks of wildfire destruction on the West Coast, President Trump mentioned it at his rally last night.
During that time, Trump tweeted, golfed, held news conferences and appeared at campaign rallies. He visited Louisiana in late August after Hurricane Laura killed 27 people, saying he wanted "to support the great people of Louisiana, it's been a tremendous state for me."
But as wildfires ravaged Western states with a similar number of deaths, Trump waited until Friday night to reference it publicly after coming under growing criticism for his silence.
"THANK YOU to the 28,000+ Firefighters and other First Responders who are battling wildfires across California, Oregon, and Washington," he wrote. "I have approved 37 Stafford Act Declarations, including Fire Management Grants to support their brave work. We are with them all the way!"
-Inmate firefighters: Yesterday, Governor Newsom signed AB 2147 (Reyes), which allows for the expungement of criminal records for some of those trained as firefighters while serving time while in state prison.
SPLIT ROLL: In the Times, John Myers writes that Governor Newsom has endorsed the split roll property tax measure for schools and local governments on the November ballot.
Wading into a contentious battle over the legacy of California’s landmark property tax law, Proposition 13, Gov. Gavin Newsom endorsed on Friday a November ballot measure that would make commercial property owners subject to billions of dollars in additional taxes each year.
Newsom announced his support for Proposition 15 in an email to supporters, calling the proposal “a fair, phased-in and long-overdue reform to state tax policy.”
“It’s consistent with California’s progressive fiscal values, it will exempt small businesses and residential property owners, it will fund essential services such as public schools and public safety, and, most importantly, it will be decided by a vote of the people,” the governor said in a written statement released by his political advisors.
If approved by voters in November, Proposition 15 would result in separate tax rules for commercial and residential property. Since the passage of Proposition 13 in 1978, the value of all property has been based on what it sold for when last purchased. That initiative capped property tax rates at 1% of the assessed value with annual increases of no more than 2%. Californians who hold on to their property for long periods of time end up paying significantly less in taxes than those who have bought similar property more recently.
STEM CELL BOND: Newsom has also endorsed the $5.5 billion stem cell bond on the ballot, reports David Jensen for CapWeekly.
PLASTICS: In the Chron, Dustin Gardiner looks at the plastics reduction initiative that may appear on the November 2022 ballot after two high-profile bills died in the Legislature.
A pair of identical bills, AB1080 and SB54, died as lawmakers squabbled with hours left before they adjourned for the year. The bills were designed to phase out some of the most commonly nonrecyclable plastics: flimsy single-use packaging and items such as cups and utensils.
Activists say that while legislative infighting didn’t help with a close vote as the session ended, the numbers were never on their side. They note that even though the Legislature is overwhelmingly Democratic, some of the more moderate party members have been intensively courted by the plastics and oil industries, which spent heavily to kill the bills.
One manufacturer, Dart Container Corp., has contributed nearly $3 million to California campaigns in the past six years. Several of the largest recipients were Democratic legislators who abstained from the Aug. 31 vote in the Assembly in which the proposals effectively died.
SACTOWN SCHOOLS: For CapRadio, Aarah Mizes-Tan reports that parents of disabled Sac City Unified students feel their concerns are being ignored amidst district squabbling.
As the dispute between the Sacramento City Teachers’ Association and the school district wages on, parents of students with disabilities are concerned that the ongoing argument is causing harm to the district’s most vulnerable.
The district and teachers union are debating, among other distance learning issues, about how Individualized Education Plans (IEPs) for students with disabilities are carried out and documented during this time.
SAN DIEGO TOURISM: In the SDUT, Lori Weisberg reports the tourism industry in San Diego is not expected to make a rapid recovery.
As the novel coronavirus continues to linger well past what anyone expected in the early weeks of the pandemic, San Diego’s tourism industry is struggling to find any heartening news that will help reverse the economic devastation that so far has cost local businesses more than $3 billion in visitor spending.
“In terms of the economy, we’re in a deep recession, and for the travel and tourism economy, unfortunately, we’re in a deep depression,” San Diego Tourism Authority Chief Operating Officer Kerri Kapich told City Council members this week during a presentation that paints a grim outlook for San Diego’s visitor industry in the coming months.
She and other tourism officials reeled off, in somber tones, one bleak stat after another: A $150 million decline in hotel room tax revenue compared to two years ago; 50,000 visitor industry jobs vanished; overall hotel room revenue down this year nearly 60 percent.
cakeday and classifieds after the jump...
CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Rusty Areias, Celinda Milagros Vazquez, and Henry Waxman!
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California Council on Science and Technology briefing
On Monday, September 14th, at 12:00 PM, the California Council on Science and Technology hosts a panel of experts to discuss the role of app-based contact tracing as part of a strategy to reduce the spread of COVID-19. Assembly Member Jacqui Irwin will moderate. Please register here.
Automobile Club of Southern California (AAA): Legislative Advocate
Represent and advocate for the interests of Automobile Club of Southern California (AAA) members and policyholders before the Legislature, Administration, state agencies, industry and trade associations, and related forums. Based in Sacramento. Excellent salary and benefits.
OFFICES AVAILABLE TO SUBLEASE
Between 1-3 unfurnished offices are available for sublease in the Wells Fargo office building, 400 Capital Mall Sacramento, CA 95814. The offices are approximately 12’X10’ each. Internet, gym. 24/7/365 key card access; professional offices. One year lease preferred. $1,500 per office. Contact Tricia Horan at Tricia.Horan@CALawyers.org
or 415-919-7990 with questions.
Offices available for sublease: Meridian Plaza
Between 1-3 offices are available for sublease in the Meridian Plaza office building, 1415 L Street, two blocks from the Capitol. The offices are approximately 150 SF each. Internet, gym, partially furnished (desk, chair, bookcases) are included. 24/7/365 key card access; floor-ceiling windows facing Sierras; professional offices. One year lease preferred. $1,500 per office. Contact Jane at firstname.lastname@example.org or (415) 577-9734 with questions.
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Political Data Inc.
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