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GENERAL ELECTION DATA POINTS

  • Election Day: 60 days
  • Ballots mailed to all California registered voters: 31 days (w/in 5 days)
  • RealClearPolitics presidential average: Biden 49.6, Trump: 42.4 (8/21-9/1): Biden+7.2 - updated today
  • RealClearPolitics generic congressional average: Dems+6.8 (7/29-9/1) - updated today

MONEY MATTERS: (highlights from daily campaign reports)

I am generally only including main committees. I try to exclude feeder committee that gather money before sending it to a the main committee, which would lead to duplication. However, it's impossible to know. Generally, I am including daily reports at or above $100,000.

  • Yes on 14 (stem cell bond): $2,059,000 from Dagmar Dolby (listed as non-monetary, explain me that; Dagmar is the widow of sound pioneer Ray Dolby)
  • No on 21 (rent control): $248,700 from 9 donors, including $130,120 from Woodmont Real Estate Services
  • No on 25 (bail - no repeals SB 10): $1,384,966, including $934,967 from Triton Management Services (owner of Alladin Bail Bonds), $251,902 from American Surety Company, and $186,993 from Seaview Insurance Company.

I also include eyebrow-raising contributions beyond the standard ($4,700 for the general):

  • JUUL, Inc. to Jim Cooper for Assembly 2020: $4,700 (First contribution from e-cig company JUUL since January) 

ATCpro SUBSCRIBER UPDATES[A full list of recent election analysis is on the subscribers home page. If you have forgotten or haven't set a password, use the forgot password tool]

  • CA08 (SB High Desert-Barstow-Eastern Sierra): updated analysis - move from Likely Rep to Safe Rep

The Nooner for Friday, September 4, 2020, presented by SYASL Partners

  • COVID-19
  • Wildfires
  • Mental health
  • Cakeday and classifieds

Well, hello there. It's Friday, so we'll be short since we all need to sleep or walk outside.

For many parents around the state, congratulations, you get a couple of days off from being a teacher's assistant. What a week! We're all exhausted, particularly those who work in or around the Capitol.

I keep the COVID-19 issue and data at the top. Some think that I am punctuating the issue for a political reason. Yes, it's a political reason, because every single person I talk to has issues related to it, from economic security, housing security, or health care. It completely transcends politics and won't disappear by election day. Indeed, we have emus with their heads in the sand. If only we could take that respite.

COVID-19:

-The numbers: 157 more Californians lost their lives to COVID-19 yesterday, bringing the total to 13,496. The five largest county numbers of deaths Wednesday were reported by Los Angeles (58), Orange (19), Alameda (17), San Joaquin (14), and Sacramento (8).

-IHME model: We have an update to the model relied upon by most experts, which is from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. The current projection is 49,602 deaths by January 1 with current practices. With a loosening of restrictions, the IHME model projects 72,165 by the new year and with universal masking, it forecasts 32,921. With weather forthcoming that facilitates spread of coronaviruses (coronavirusi?), the model forecasts a worsening situation by November even if we take the strongest precautions.

Here is the graph of daily deaths in the IHME model.

IHME model update

As someone who walks around downtown occasionally (with a mask), let me tell you that we are worlds away from universal masking, and that includes within stores. I take my mask off when it looks like nobody is ahead for a couple of blocks, and then put it back on. But there are lots of folks that just don't give a damn anymore.

WILDFIRES: Crews continue to make progress on all three fires, although the Labor Day weekend has soaring temperatures forecast in many parts of the state. In each of the fires, additional structures continue to be consumed, although no new fatalities have been reported.

Here are the stats on the biggest fires (source: CalFire).

  • SCU Lightning Complex (Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa, San Joaquin, Stanislaus): 396,624 acres and 82% contained as of 6:59am
    Structures destroyed: 131
    Deaths: 0
  • LNU Lightning Complex (Napa, Sonoma, Lake, Yolo, Solano): 375,209 acres and 87% contained as of 6:42am
    Structures destroyed: 1,491
    Deaths: 5

    Great news in this fire. We can probably drop it off the list tomorrow. Thank you for all of the state, local, and mutual aid firefighters who made it happen. Among the fires, this threatened the most people and homes.
  • CZU Lightning Complex (Santa Cruz, San Mateo): 86,509 acres and 56% contained as of 7:54am
    Structures destroyed: 1,490
    Deaths: 1 

more after the jump...

SMOKIN'! While JUUL lost on flavored tobacco in the Legislature this year with SB 793 (Hill), the e-cig manufacturer is still handing out legislator of the year awards. Yesterday, JUUL reported $4,700 (max) to Assembly member Jim Cooper (D-Elk Grove).

MENTAL HEALTH: For Capitol Weekly, Sigrid Bathen looks at the package of mental health bills sent by the Legislature to the governor.

“This package of legislation is a game-changer,” said Maggie Merritt, executive director of the Steinberg Institute,  a mental-health advocacy and policy nonprofit established in 2015 by Sacramento Mayor and former state Senate Leader Darrell Steinberg, a longtime advocate and author of major mental-health legislation spanning decades.

The fact that significant bills were passed in the middle of a pandemic – when the Legislature was  forced to curtail hearings and sharply limit the number of bills they could consider – “shows that our elected leaders understand how important mental-health services are at this vital moment,” Merritt added.

Steinberg said the legislative package “once again puts California at the forefront of mental health policy reform, requires more from the health insurance industry, and helps to address the mental health crisis that is taking such a devastating toll on our state and our country.”

 cakeday and classifieds after the jump...

Probolsky Research

CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Kristin Beard, Assembly member Al Muratsuchi, and Anthony York!

Classifieds

Add your classified now both in The Nooner and online for $50/week or $150/month by emailing scottlay@gmail.com, with a headline, a summary of up to 200 words, and what you'd like the end date to be. You can attach a PDF or provide a link for a bigger job description/info to apply. [Other advertising options]


Automobile Club of Southern California (AAA): Legislative Advocate

Represent and advocate for the interests of Automobile Club of Southern California (AAA) members and policyholders before the Legislature, Administration, state agencies, industry and trade associations, and related forums. Based in Sacramento. Excellent salary and benefits.

https://careers.calif.aaa.com/job/11359638/legislative-advocate-costa-mesa-ca/

Research Analyst, Full-Time (remote)

Probolsky Research is a market and opinion research company based in Newport Beach, California. We are woman and Latina-owned. We are non-partisan, independent researchers passionate about accuracy, data security, and using storytelling to make data usable.

The Research Analyst is responsible for facilitating market and opinion research projects from instrument design to project fulfillment, final research deliverables and presentation to client.

Benefits:

  • Competitive salary commensurate with experience
  • Company-funded medical insurance
  • Paid vacation

Location: We are a virtual company – work from anywhere

https://www.probolskyresearch.com/research-analyst-full-time/

California School Boards Association - Public Affairs & Community Engagement Representative (LA North/Ventura)
Serve as CSBA’s liaison to local schools and county boards of education, key decision makers, and the community-at-large. Execute grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. Remote position based in the following location: LA North/Ventura. Salary based on experience. Please apply at: https://www.csba.org/About/Careers
OFFICES AVAILABLE TO SUBLEASE
Between 1-3 unfurnished offices are available for sublease in the Wells Fargo office building, 400 Capital Mall Sacramento, CA 95814. The offices are approximately 12’X10’ each. Internet, gym. 24/7/365 key card access; professional offices. One year lease preferred. $1,500 per office. Contact Tricia Horan at Tricia.Horan@CALawyers.org or 415-919-7990 with questions.
Offices available for sublease: Meridian Plaza

Between 1-3 offices are available for sublease in the Meridian Plaza office building, 1415 L Street, two blocks from the Capitol. The offices are approximately 150 SF each. Internet, gym, partially furnished (desk, chair, bookcases) are included. 24/7/365 key card access; floor-ceiling windows facing Sierras; professional offices. One year lease preferred. $1,500 per office. Contact Jane at admin@stoneadvocacy.com or (415) 577-9734 with questions.

Photos: 1 | 2 | 3

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