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GENERAL ELECTION DATA POINTS

ATCpro SUBSCRIBER UPDATES[A full list of recent election analysis is on the subscribers home page. If you have forgotten or haven't set a password, use the forgot password tool]

*=today's updates

  • CA21 (Coalinga-Lemoore-South Bakersfield/strong> updated analysis and rating change from Leans Dem to Toss-up (2020-08-15)
  • CA25 (Santa Clarita-Palmdale/strong> updated analysis (Toss-up) - money update
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  • CA45 (Anaheim Hills-Tustin-Irvine/strong> updated analysis (Likely Democrat) - money update

The Nooner for Wednesday, August 19, 2020, presented by SYASL Partners

  • Money Matters
  • COVID-19
    • The numbers
    • The state monitoring list
    • School daze
  • Weather, electricity, and fire
    • Electricity
    • Fires
  • Assembly Appropriations and Tele-testimony
  • AB 70 (private non-profit colleges)
  • SB 793 (Hill): Flavored tobacco products.
  • cakeday and classifieds

MONEY MATTERS: (highlights from daily campaign finance reports):

I am generally only including main committees. I try to exclude feeder committee that gather money before sending it to a the main committee, which would lead to duplication. However, it's impossible to know. Generally, I am including daily reports exceeding $100,000.

  • Yes on 15 (split roll): $25,000 from Youth Power Pac
  • No on 15 (split roll): $457,500, including $250,000 from Public Storage and $200,000 from Price Self Storage Affiliated Entities
  • No on 21 (rent control): $240,230 from 38 contributions, including $135,000 from Klingbeil Capital Management Ltd.

Happy humpday! It's another crazy day at Nooner Global HQ. While I was up at 5, Senate Approps is taking up much of my morning. Like yesterday, I'll be short this morning and will send out a Nooner Nightcap if something can't wait until tomorrow.

Otherwise on my schedule for today is 5pm: Trash. Google just reminded me of that. Since we take recycle out every other week, I actually put it on the calendar. Tomorrow morning is not a recycle day. I tried to put the year 2020 in the trash can to haul out tonight, but it came with so much baggage that it didn't fit in the "can."

Can. The kiddoes today don't remember dragging those metal cans down the driveway and hearing that awful sound that the chore made. They probably see Oscar the Grouch popping out of his metal can and query why he's not in a modern plastic container with wheels. If I had kids, that would be my "walking to school through two feet of snow" story...

Anyway, it's day 3 of the Max Headroom Democratic National Politicalpalooza. Tonight's speakers include Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and Kamala Harris. Meanwhile, the Angels-Giants series continues although the stupid schedule required everybody to pack and move from Anaheim to San Francisco for another two games. Some climate watcher can share with me the emissions of those two flights. That said, everybody playing and coaching will be happy moving from temps of 100 yesterday to high 70s in the city by the Bay tonight.

Oh my, 2020 stands for a lot of things. At the one-person show at Nooner Global HQ, it feels like playing Whack-a-Mole daily and skimming the surface. ¡Lo siento, mis amigos!

Let's get to it after the jump!

COVID-19:

- The numbers: The state added 185 deaths yesterday bringing the total to 11,527. The largest numbers were reported in Los Angeles (68), San Bernardino (48), Kern (12), and San Joaquin (11).

Again, this likely reflects low reporting over the weekend, which you can see in the chart below.

COVID deaths by daySource: Los Angeles Times

Meanwhile, while deaths are a lagging indicator and new confirmed cases and positivity rate are leading indicators, the current indicator of hospitalizations looks good in most counties. From yesterday's Los Angeles County release:

In the last month, daily hospitalizations have decreased by 37%, from 2,219 in mid-July to 1,388 in mid-August. There are 1,352 confirmed cases currently hospitalized and 32% of these people are confirmed cases in the ICU. The decreasing number of daily hospitalizations is one of the best indicators that our efforts over the last few weeks are working, as it is an accurate representation of how many people are currently seriously ill from the virus.

- The state monitoring list: As expected, San Diego was dropped from the state monitoring list yesterday. In the SDUT, Paul Sisson and Morgan Cook write:

The action, which came as local doctors were adjusting to new testing guidance from the county, starts a 14-day countdown during which the region must avoid crossing any of six thresholds that, if they persisted for three days in a row, would land the region back on the list.

Provided San Diego’s daily COVID-19 numbers remain below state-set maximums for two weeks, K-12 schools would be able to resume in-person instruction at the discretion of local school boards.

But getting off the list does not mean businesses, churches and other organizations forced to operate outdoors for weeks can suddenly move back indoors. Additional state approval is necessary for an indoor migration, and so far, Sacramento has been silent on when it will give the go-ahead.

Counties on the monitoring list for three consecutive days are required to shut down indoor operations in the following industries:

  • Gyms and fitness centers
  • Places of worship and cultural ceremonies, like weddings and funerals
  • Offices for non-critical infrastructure sectors
  • Personal care services, like nail salons and body waxing
  • Hair salons and barbershops
  • Shopping malls

Indoor operations in ALL COUNTIES are still prohibited from allowing the operation of:

  • Dine-in restaurants
  • Bars
  • Wineries and tasting rooms
  • Movie theaters
  • Family entertainment centers (for example: bowling alleys, miniature golf, batting cages and arcades)
  • Zoos and museums
  • Cardrooms

- School daze: Yesterday, I was listening to a podcast on my very sweaty afternoon walk. I can't remember which pod it was, but it was a teacher at a school that gives parents and kids the choice of in-person, distance, or blended learning. The teacher talked about how she essentially has two full-time jobs or providing instruction in-person and over the interwebs. She was not in California, but I would love to hear about how things are playing out in California.

WEATHER, ELECTRICITY, AND FIRE:

- Electricity: In the SDUT, Rob Nikolewski writes that California's increasing movement toward renewable energy raises questions about the reliability of the state's electricity grid.

A combination of factors led to the first rotating power outages in the state since 2001:

  • A heatwave that not only blistered nearly every part of California but also affected neighboring states. Energy imports from other states account for about 25 percent of California’s power mix but with temperatures high across the West, those electrons stayed in places like Washington and Arizona.
  • At least two power plants in California tripped offline last weekend, taking valuable megawatts of power with them.
  • And since the heatwave was accompanied by very little wind, energy production from wind farms took a nosedive.

The state’s electric grid has changed dramatically since 2006 — when a terrible “heat storm” led to 131 heat-related deaths in California.

While natural gas is the state’s largest single power source, there’s a lot more renewable sources of electricity like solar and wind on the grid now — 32.4 percent, according to the state’s more recent figures.

In fact, solar production in California is so plentiful that grid operators sometimes have to send the excess to adjacent states like Arizona or curtail it altogether.

On a day-in, day-out basis, grid operators have nimbly handled the shift to renewables but managing the power system has gotten trickier. That’s because wind and solar are intermittent sources — they don’t produce power when the wind doesn’t blow or the sun doesn’t shine.

Add in to the factors that we're mostly at home. Over this week and next, people aren't gathering for convention watch parties as in previous presidential cycles. We're watching in our own domiciles, while also doing New York Times crossword puzzles on our 'puters. Thus, we have so many more air conditioners and devices sucking down the juice just as that damn sun stops recharging us.

Tonight is going to be another close call between supply and demand and rolling blackouts are again possible.

- Fires: 

  • Former Assembly Republican Leader and Stanislaus County supe Kristen Olsen tweeted this morning "My car is covered in ash this morning, as our first responders continue to fight the fire in Del Puerto Canyon to save homes and livestock. Also just got text from cousin in Suisun Valley/Fairfield saying they’re being evacuated (3rd time in 4 years). Pray for CA! #wildfires"

When I went for my morning walk, the same was true in Sacramento. There was ash everywhere. It was like a mash-up of 2020 and 2018. Fortunately, we all have masks that are now a two-fer. It's unclear where the ash in Sacramento is coming from, as there are fires in the Sierras and a huge complex of several fires that started yesterday by a lightning strikes. The SCU Lightning Complex, which is in Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus counties is 85,000 acres and only 5% contained.

There is also a LNU Lightning Complex in Napa and Sonoma counties, which was 46,225 acres and 0% contained at the last update as well as CZU Complex in Santa Clara and Santa Cruz Counties, which was 10,000 acres and 0% contained.

As of this writing (around 10:00am), there were 33 fires active on the CalFire site, which include several complexes like those above. As we've seen in recent years, when fires merge they become a complex.

From several sources, I am told that the state's air resources are completely tapped out, including both fixed-wing and copters. Fortunately, while dozens of structures have been destroyed or damaged, most of the fires are still in undeveloped areas. This is largely because of the lightning-caused fires, which generally start in forested areas. That's good from a human cost perspective, but it is also because the fires are in terrain very difficult for firefighters to put down the flames.

There's also good news in the wind situation. Oddly for longtime SacTown folks who are used to hot days followed by hot nights with dry, warm winds coming from the northeast, the winds are coming onshore. Generally that means cooler. However, we have the combination of the high pressure system driving heat and the remnant moisture and disturbance from former Tropical Storm Fausto which is halfway between Baja and Hawaii now. It's truly a weird combination but, then again, it's 2020.

POLICING: For Politico, Jeremy B. White looks at how the legislative push for reform of police use of force in California is shaping the national agenda.

State lawmakers, who last year passed legislation spelling out the only times police officers can shoot to kill, have seized on a rare opportunity to overhaul policing following the killing of George Floyd.

Legislators have tripled the number of proposals seeking to more tightly regulate police actions. The state Legislative Black Caucus has galvanized support from colleagues, including one who previously served in law enforcement. And Gov. Gavin Newsom, who signed last year’s use-of-force bill, has called for additional changes to law enforcement rules and is being pushed to back these newest measures.

Police unions that at one time would have crushed the legislative effort are now staying out of the fray.

Supporters of the proposals say they are determined to convert a historic surge of advocacy into enduring change — and success in California could augur similar victories around the country, putting pressure on governors and legislatures to take action. They say they need to see advances in California, where polls show residents support the Black Lives Matter by a more than 2-to-1 margin, before the momentum is lost.

“We are afraid there may be a waning of political will if we don’t do anything significant this year, in this moment,” said ACLU lobbyist Dennis Cuevas-Romero, whose group has long pushed for policing changes.

APPROPS AND TELE-TESTIMONY: Yesterday's Assembly Appropriations Committee hearing was wild and I am sure Senate Approps (listening to now) will be largely the same. The phone lines were packed with opponents of housing-density bills SB 902 (Wiener) and SB 1120 (Atkins) who support the SB 1299 (Portantino) relating to facilitating housing at idle retail sites, the "sons" of the controversial SB 50 that stalled last year.

There were also lots of callers opposing SB 9, the bill that would facilitate the sale of CalTrans residential property purchased through eminent domain but not used by CalTrans for the intended purposes and instead turned into rental properties, particularly in the longstanding project to extend the 710 to connect with the 210 in Los Angeles. The opponents of the bills are the renters, although low-income housing advocates support the bill as it would prioritize the sale by CalTrans to affordable housing organizations.

There were also several callers opposing SB 793 (Hill), the flavored tobacco bill.

This morning, I have been listening to Senate Appropriations and it's been, ugh. There has been a caller over the last week who keeps calling in and stating her name as "Open up California." She then goes on a rant about socialism and all sorts of other things that -- let me check my abacus -- have nothing to do with any bills on the agenda.

Anyway, the hopes of continued tele-testimony (which I support) die with each hearing. There needs to be a quick registration of me-toos with name, organization (if any), and position, after which a phone number is shown. That can easily be done by an intern at one of California's many tech companies. I'm sure Zuck would lend somebody.

AB 70 (Berman): Private, nonprofit colleges: On August 9th, I wrote about AB 70, Marc Berman's bill that seeks to continue state oversight over private, for-profit colleges that separate their functions into a nonprofit to evade oversight yet contracts back to the former for-profit entity.

Based on the withdrawal of the motion of Do Pass with Amendments to Appropriations that appears at 6:39:40 in the video, I thought the bill was dead for the year via request by the author.

But, it's 2020, so "it is what it is." The bill is up in Senate Appropriations with the hostile amendments today and the motion shows up in the bill's history.

SB 793 (Hill): Flavored tobacco products. Yesterday, I wrote about the ads by Reynolds America Inc. accusing legislators voting for the flavored tobacco ban of siding with the wealth with exemptions while disproportionately affecting Black and Latino consumers. Well, the television war continues on both sides, with the humorous, cartoon-like ads supporting the bill and with new ads opposing the bill by the convenience store industry and apparently funded largely by Altria according to the disclosure. Altria owns a large stake in JUUL.

cakeday and NEW classifieds after the jump...

Probolsky Research

CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Elizabeth Bojórquez, Olivia Lee, and former Assembly Member Cameron Smyth!

Classifieds

Add your classified now both in The Nooner and online for $50/week or $150/month by emailing scottlay@gmail.com, with a headline, a summary of up to 200 words, and what you'd like the end date to be. You can attach a PDF or provide a link for a bigger job description/info to apply. [Other advertising options]


California State University: Legislative Advocate

The California State University, Office of the Chancellor, is seeking a Legislative Advocate to accept primary responsibility for subject matter expertise, analysis, political strategy and advocacy in the areas assigned. In collaboration with the DSR, the Legislative Advocate will help identify and define issues that may impact the CSU; coordinate with Chancellor's Office (CO) staff and the DSR to develop comprehensive analysis of proposed legislation; and participate in the formulation of approaches and strategies for assigned issue areas.

For additional information and to apply, visit: https://apptrkr.com/1982855

EOE/AA

Research Analyst, Full-Time (remote)

Probolsky Research is a market and opinion research company based in Newport Beach, California. We are woman and Latina-owned. We are non-partisan, independent researchers passionate about accuracy, data security, and using storytelling to make data usable.

The Research Analyst is responsible for facilitating market and opinion research projects from instrument design to project fulfillment, final research deliverables and presentation to client.

Benefits:

  • Competitive salary commensurate with experience
  • Company-funded medical insurance
  • Paid vacation

Location: We are a virtual company – work from anywhere

https://www.probolskyresearch.com/research-analyst-full-time/

California School Boards Association - Public Affairs & Community Engagement Representative (LA North/Ventura)
Serve as CSBA’s liaison to local schools and county boards of education, key decision makers, and the community-at-large. Execute grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. Remote position based in the following location: LA North/Ventura. Salary based on experience. Please apply at: https://www.csba.org/About/Careers
OFFICES AVAILABLE TO SUBLEASE
Between 1-3 unfurnished offices are available for sublease in the Wells Fargo office building, 400 Capital Mall Sacramento, CA 95814. The offices are approximately 12’X10’ each. Internet, gym. 24/7/365 key card access; professional offices. One year lease preferred. $1,500 per office. Contact Tricia Horan at Tricia.Horan@CALawyers.org or 415-919-7990 with questions.
Offices available for sublease: Meridian Plaza

Between 1-3 offices are available for sublease in the Meridian Plaza office building, 1415 L Street, two blocks from the Capitol. The offices are approximately 150 SF each. Internet, gym, partially furnished (desk, chair, bookcases) are included. 24/7/365 key card access; floor-ceiling windows facing Sierras; professional offices. One year lease preferred. $1,500 per office. Contact Jane at admin@stoneadvocacy.com or (415) 577-9734 with questions.

Photos: 1 | 2 | 3

Political Data Inc.
For 30 Years PDI has been California’s premier data vendor. Now, you can get live online trainings on the newest PDI software every week: