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ATCpro SUBSCRIBER UPDATES[A full list of recent election analysis is on the subscribers home page. If you have forgotten or haven't set a password, use the forgot password tool]

*=today's updates

  • CA21 (Coalinga-Lemoore-South Bakersfield/strong> updated analysis and rating change from Leans Dem to Toss-up (2020-08-15)
  • CA25 (Santa Clarita-Palmdale/strong> updated analysis (Toss-up) - money update
  • CA39 (Diamond Bar-Fullerton-Yorba Linda): updated analysis (Leans Democrat) - money update
  • CA45 (Anaheim Hills-Tustin-Irvine/strong> updated analysis (Likely Democrat) - money update

The Nooner for Tuesday, August 18, 2020, presented by SYASL Partners

  • Money Matters
  • COVID-19
    • The numbers
    • The state monitoring list
    • Central Valley
  • Weather, electricity, and fire
    • Weather
    • Electricity
  • Ethnic studies
  • SB 793 (Hill): Flavored tobacco products.
  • Prop. 25: bail referendum
  • cakeday and new classifieds

MONEY MATTERS: (highlights from daily campaign finance reports):

I am generally only including main committees. I try to exclude feeder committee that gather money before sending it to a the main committee, which would lead to duplication. However, it's impossible to know. Generally, I am including daily reports exceeding $100,000.

  • Yes on 15 (split roll): $1,505,345 from 5 contributions, including $1 million from SEIU Local 2015 and $500,000 from the The Northern Trust Company.
  • No on 21 (rent control): $354,300 from 37 contributions.
  • No on 22 (transportation network company exemption from AB 5): $251,741 from 2 contributions, including $250,000 from SEIU State Council.
  • No on 23 (dialysis): $2,286,308 from US Renal Care, Inc.

On this date 100 years ago, Tennessee became the 36th state to ratify the 19th Amendment, prohibiting states and the federal government from denying the right to vote on the basis of sex, making it the law of the land.

Happy Taco Tuesday! At farmers market on Sunday, they were out of skirt steak but was talked into the guy staffing the Winterport Farm (Ione, Amador County) booth (owner Dan is staying home because he's high risk of COVID-19) suggested not with going for a higher-cost cut, but rather a cross-cut beef shank that was much cheaper. He suggest pressure cooking it and he said that it shreds like pork. So, I'll be using my Instant Pot again tonight and the salsa verde I made Sunday with great tomatillos from Riverdog Farm (Guinda, Yolo County) and Fresno chilies from my balcony garden.

Last night's Democratic National Convention was, well, interesting. Tonight's features in the lineup include President Bill Clinton and Dr. Jill Biden. Obviously, as a professor at Northern Virginia Community College, Jill Biden has been a great voice for community colleges over the years so I very much appreciate her.

It's a bit of a crazy morning for me. Assembly Appropriations has a long agenda that I'm trying to keep track of and I'm splitting my writing time with a Sacramento update for the Southern California Association of Governments. So that's the explanation why I'm a bit short today. I'll be reading the news I haven't gotten to and if there is anything that can't wait until tomorrow, I'll send out a Nooner Nightcap.

Let's get to it after the jump!


- The numbers: There were 93 new confirmed deaths in California yesterday for a total of 11,343.

- The state monitoring list: During yesterday's NewsomAtNoon, Governor Newsom announced that the state's list of counties it was monitoring based on four  indicators was being updated after being frozen for a week because of the state's testing data SNAFU. The indicators include number of daily tests over previous 7 days, new confirmed cases over last 14 days or positivity rate over 7 days, hospitalization rate increase over 3 days, and ICU or ventilator utilization.

Counties on the monitoring list for three consecutive days are required to shut down indoor operations in the following industries:

  • Gyms and fitness centers
  • Places of worship and cultural ceremonies, like weddings and funerals
  • Offices for non-critical infrastructure sectors
  • Personal care services, like nail salons and body waxing
  • Hair salons and barbershops
  • Shopping malls

Indoor operations in ALL COUNTIES are still prohibited from allowing the operation of:

  • Dine-in restaurants
  • Bars
  • Wineries and tasting rooms
  • Movie theaters
  • Family entertainment centers (for example: bowling alleys, miniature golf, batting cages and arcades)
  • Zoos and museums
  • Cardrooms

Additionally, in-person public and private school operation is prohibited in counties on the monitoring list, although county health department waivers can be given for elementary school in-person operation under certain circumstances.

As Yesterday, Santa Cruz County was taken off the list, while Amador, Calaveras, Inyo, Mendocino, and Sierra were added. The governor said that San Diego likely would be removed today depending on yesterday's data. County and city leaders have been openly challenging the state's data in a quest to be removed from the list. The changes yesterday result in 42 of the state's 58 counties on the monitoring list.

Sacramento County is at a 14-day 139.4 confirmed cases per 100,000 residents on the metric requiring fewer than 100, while okay on the other metrics and could be off the list before long if that number falls below 100.

In Southern California, Los Angeles County is at 254.7 cases per 100,000 on the metric requiring fewer than 100 over 14-days. Riverside is at 205.8 and San Bernardino is at 235.2, and both exceed the positivity rate metric requirement of being below 8% with Riverside at 11.2 and San Bernardino at 12.0.

Orange County is at 117.9 and Ventura is at 134.7 confirmed cases over the last 14 days and both meet the requirements of the other metrics. They may join San Diego in being removed shortly.

The county data table is available here.

- The defiant school daze: Capitol Christian High School in Sacramento County began operations yesterday with small groups, claiming that it is operating not as a school, but rather "day care." County health director Dr. Peter Beilenson isn't buying it. A team for the Bee reports:

He told The Sacramento Bee on Sunday that he planned to call Capital Christian, adding that If the school is violating the state and county COVID-19 rules, “We would shut them down.”

Capital Christian Head of Schools Tim Wong said Monday he had not heard from anyone from the Sacramento County public health department, but said he is transparent and invites anyone to come on campus for a peek.

- Central Valley: In the Bee, a team looks at the devastating impact of COVID on the Central Valley's farms, which could also draw attention to longstanding seemingly unsolvable challenges.

Long overlooked, often derided as “the other California,” the Valley is finally in the spotlight – for all the wrong reasons. Gov. Gavin Newsom described the Valley as his “biggest area of concern” recently and dispatched three of his coronavirus “strike teams” to the region to help local officials halt the spread.

Yet some believe the region could use the surge in coronavirus infections to its advantage, leveraging the attention and resources to not only beat the pandemic but bring about meaningful improvements in a region plagued for decades by low wages, substandard housing, spotty access to health care and rampant environmental problems.

“We have national attention, and we seem to have the beginnings of political will for actual structural changes to support the people who feed us,” said Ildi Carlisle-Cummins, head of the California Institute for Rural Studies, a research and advocacy group based in Davis.

“I’m hopeful. Even if you don’t care about human dignity, we all should realize the foundation of our food system is at critical risk,” Cummins said.


- Weather: A team at the Times writes that this week's weather events are a glimpse of the future.

As one of the worst heat waves in years continues to broil California, millions are experiencing the havoc that ensues with extreme weather that is growing more frequent with climate change. Warmer nights in particular have the imprint of global warming, scientists say, and offer a glimpse into California’s future as greenhouse gas emissions gradually heat the planet.

“Climate change is certainly increasing the frequency, severity and duration of extreme heat and warm nights,” said Flavio Lehner, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. “It is safe to assume that climate change contributed to the extreme nature of recent events,” though only a dedicated study could attribute to what extent.

Medical experts, meanwhile, said they were extremely worried about the health risks posed by this heat wave because of its similarity to a July 2006 heat spell that resulted in thousands of emergency room visits for heat-related illness and hundreds of excess deaths. They are bracing for a jump in such heat casualties, which they fear will be worsened by the closure of air-conditioned public spaces due to coronavirus restrictions. 

- Electricity: Yesterday, Governor Newsom signed an executive order to exempt power plants from local air quality management district restricts through 11:59pm Thursday to enable them to generate more electricity by using backup energy sources during the heat wave. This was an issue particularly on Saturday night when demand was higher than expected and available wind resources unexpectedly dropped by 1,000MW, triggering rolling blackouts because additional nat gas resources were not available.

Meanwhile, at the Times, a team reports that with continued soaring temperatures today, the risk of rolling blackouts this evening continues. Yesterday, the independent system operator warned that rolling blackouts were likely last night but with lower demand and additional supply.

Officials now hope conservation will continue.

“We were ready, and we’re glad the weather and energy supply situation improved so Cal-ISO did not have to call for rotating outages,” said Pacific Gas & Electric spokesman Paul Moreno. “We appreciated our customers big and small who answered the call and conserved energy in our service area and across the state. We will need customers to conserve again.”

Officials have said a power shortage remains — and more rolling blackouts are still possible as the heat wave continues through Thursday.

Gov. Gavin Newsom on Monday called the power crisis “unacceptable” and pledged a full investigation into the cause of the shortage.

“We’ve always maintained that, a golden oldie, you can’t control the weather, but you can prepare for the weather events,” he said. “And let me just make this crystal clear: We failed to predict and plan [for] these shortages, and that’s simply unacceptable.”

He framed the shortage as a consequence of the state’s transition from polluting gas plants to cleaner sources of energy and said the high demand placed on the grid because of the record heat over the last few days has exposed “gaps in terms of that reliability.”

“We cannot sacrifice reliability as we move forward in this transition,” he said. “And we’re going to be much more aggressive in focusing our efforts and our intention in making sure that is the case.”

ETHNIC STUDIES: Governor Newsom signed AB 1460 (Weber) yesterday, which is the bill to establish a requirement that, beginning in the 2024-25 academic year, students complete at least one three-unit course in ethnic studies. The intervention by the Legislature in academic requirements was strongly opposed by the California State University and its Academic Senate, yet the sponsor was the California Faculty Association, the union of CSU professors, as well as several ethnic studies departments at individual CSU campuses.

SB 793 (Hill): Flavored tobacco products. You may have seen the ad on the teevee claiming that the amendments taken in Assembly Health to Senator Jerry Hill's (D-San Mateo) bill that exempt high-end cigars, loose leaf tobacco, and hookah tobacco is a demonstration of the Legislature favoring wealthy Californians over Black and Latino consumers. The fine print on the ad is that it's paid for by RAI Services Co. RAI stands for Reynolds American Inc., or as you likely know of as RJ Reynolds. RAI is owned by British American Tobacco.

RAI owns R.J. Reynolds Vapor Company, which makes the Vuse vaping brand.  But, wait, there's more! RAI's R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Company produces the Newport brand of menthol cigarettes that would be prohibited under SB 793. Newport is the most popular brand of menthol cigarettes in the world. In 2017, it was the second most popular brand in the United States behind Marlboro, accounting for 14% of domestic sales.

SB 793 is in Assembly Appropriations today.

Oh, the onion layers are so fun to peel before the sun comes up.

PROP. 25: BAIL REFERENDUM: The proponents of the referendum to overturn SB 10 (Hertzberg - 2018) have renamed their committee from "Californians Against the Reckless Bail Scheme, Sponsored by The American Bail Coalition" to "No on Prop 25 - Stop the Unfair, Unsafe and Costly Ballot Proposition, sponsored by the American Bail Coalition."

Of course, they put the ballot measure on the ballot, making the name quite deceptive. With referenda, "yes" upholds the law and "no" overturns the law. Thus, backers of a referendum are urging a "no" vote.

cakeday and NEW classifieds after the jump...

Probolsky Research

CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Assembly Member Jay Obernolte and Melissa Romero!


Add your classified now both in The Nooner and online for $50/week or $150/month by emailing, with a headline, a summary of up to 200 words, and what you'd like the end date to be. You can attach a PDF or provide a link for a bigger job description/info to apply. [Other advertising options]

California State University: Legislative Advocate

The California State University, Office of the Chancellor, is seeking a Legislative Advocate to accept primary responsibility for subject matter expertise, analysis, political strategy and advocacy in the areas assigned. In collaboration with the DSR, the Legislative Advocate will help identify and define issues that may impact the CSU; coordinate with Chancellor's Office (CO) staff and the DSR to develop comprehensive analysis of proposed legislation; and participate in the formulation of approaches and strategies for assigned issue areas.

For additional information and to apply, visit:


Voices for Progress: Membership Associate

Voices for Progress (V4P) galvanizes the advocacy of business leaders, entrepreneurs, philanthropists, and other prominent individuals who unite to protect our climate, strengthen our democracy, and ensure economic and social justice for all. The Membership Associate will support the Membership team with activation of members for participation in public policy advocacy and other programmatic activities; ongoing member maintenance; maintaining data integrity within the membership and activities database; and assisting with the smooth functioning of the team. This position reports directly to the Membership Engagement Manager. The Membership Associate is a Non-Exempt position. Non-exempt employees are paid an hourly rate for hours worked and are eligible for overtime pay.

Full description and application info

Research Analyst, Full-Time (remote)

Probolsky Research is a market and opinion research company based in Newport Beach, California. We are woman and Latina-owned. We are non-partisan, independent researchers passionate about accuracy, data security, and using storytelling to make data usable.

The Research Analyst is responsible for facilitating market and opinion research projects from instrument design to project fulfillment, final research deliverables and presentation to client.


  • Competitive salary commensurate with experience
  • Company-funded medical insurance
  • Paid vacation

Location: We are a virtual company – work from anywhere

California School Boards Association - Public Affairs & Community Engagement Representative (LA North/Ventura)
Serve as CSBA’s liaison to local schools and county boards of education, key decision makers, and the community-at-large. Execute grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. Remote position based in the following location: LA North/Ventura. Salary based on experience. Please apply at:
Between 1-3 unfurnished offices are available for sublease in the Wells Fargo office building, 400 Capital Mall Sacramento, CA 95814. The offices are approximately 12’X10’ each. Internet, gym. 24/7/365 key card access; professional offices. One year lease preferred. $1,500 per office. Contact Tricia Horan at or 415-919-7990 with questions.
Offices available for sublease: Meridian Plaza

Between 1-3 offices are available for sublease in the Meridian Plaza office building, 1415 L Street, two blocks from the Capitol. The offices are approximately 150 SF each. Internet, gym, partially furnished (desk, chair, bookcases) are included. 24/7/365 key card access; floor-ceiling windows facing Sierras; professional offices. One year lease preferred. $1,500 per office. Contact Jane at or (415) 577-9734 with questions.

Photos: 1 | 2 | 3

Political Data Inc.
For 30 Years PDI has been California’s premier data vendor. Now, you can get live online trainings on the newest PDI software every week: