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The Nooner for Sunday, August 16, 2020, presented by SYASL Partners
- Rolling blackouts
- New voter registration data
- cakeday, farewell, and new classifieds
GENERAL ELECTION DATA POINTS
ATCpro SUBSCRIBER UPDATES: [A full list of recent election analysis is on the subscribers home page. If you have forgotten or haven't set a password, use the forgot password tool]
- CA21 (Coalinga-Lemoore-South Bakersfield/strong> updated analysis and rating change from Leans Dem to Toss-up (2020-08-15)
- CA25 (Santa Clarita-Palmdale/strong> updated analysis (Toss-up) - money update
- CA39 (Diamond Bar-Fullerton-Yorba Linda): updated analysis (Leans Democrat) - money update
- CA45 (Anaheim Hills-Tustin-Irvine/strong> updated analysis (Likely Democrat) - money update
- *I'll be updating analyses to include the new voter registration data throughout the day today. Some of those data are included in an item below.
Happy Sunday, or what I consider the only day that seems normal these days. My fridge is bare so I'll be at farmers market first thing to avoid both the heat and crowds (if folks show up). For lunch, I'm hoping Our Lady of Guadalupe down the street has street tacos today notwithstanding the heat and absence of mass. After ceasing for awhile during the first shutdown, they continued to show up after the brief reopening and I've been getting my tacos weekly. And, my favorite mangonada y esquité vendor has been showing up as well. Great, cheap eats and supporting la gente! Sadly, many vendors have not returned.
When I got up this morning, folks in the North Bay were already before 5am tweeting about mostly dry thunderstorms moving through the area. Obviously, that raises the concern of more wildfires. According to its web site, CalFire currently has 7 wildfires under its management and more under local management. Fortunately, most have been burning in rugged terrain and while producing ominous smoke plumes appear to have affected few structures. Of course, In Sacramento, we had strong winds overnight, so the risk is high in the north state.
As you'll see below, I've been primarily working on data and coding last night and this morning rather than the gnus. If I run across something this afternoon newsworthy that can't wait until tomorrow, I'll send out a message.
Let's get to it after the jump!
- The Numbers: California added 82 confirmed COVID deaths yesterday for a total of 11,231. Of these, 31 were in Los Angeles County and 20 were in Orange County.
As we have repeatedly seen, weekend reporting is generally low, amplifying the numbers early in the week.That's why the 7-day average is much more relevent. That does show not just a plateau but may be on the decline after peaking a couple of weeks ago.
Source: Los Angeles Times
ROLLING BLACKOUTS: Many geeks got up yesterday, looked at the weather forecast (109 in SacTown!), glanced at the box score of the 10-inning Giants v. A's game Friday night, figured that two things were a certainty: Giants blowing another large lead and rolling blackouts. And they would be right.
But it wasn't supposed to be that way, at least in terms of rolling blackouts. At 4:21pm, the California Independent System Operator (ISO) tweeted "The #ISO is expected to cover electrical demand with no stage emergencies planned at this time." Almost exactly two hours later, the ISO announced a Stage 3 emergency and rolling blackouts. From the ISO press release:
The California Independent System Operator (ISO) declared a Stage 3 Electrical Emergency at 6:28 p.m. on Saturday, Aug. 15, due to increased electricity demand, the unexpected loss of a 470-megawatt (MW) power plant, and loss of nearly 1,000 MW of wind power.
The load was ordered back online 20 minutes later at 6:48 p.m., as wind resources increased.
The short rolling blackouts primarily affected around 225,000 PG&E-served households/businesses in the Central Coast and Central Valley. San Diego Gas & Electric and Southern California Edison also reported some customers had their power interrupted.
The site of the loss of the power plant is unclear and if the wind power loss was meteorological or mechanical. The ISO has ordered limited maintenance operations among suppliers.
Throughout the day, I was watching the ISO supply and demand page, and things did look good, with a margin of around 3,000 MW. Then there were the unexpected outages and higher than projected usage.
Again, while power outages can happen anywhere, anytime and residents should be prepared, ISO-ordered rolling power outages do not affect Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD) or Roseville Electric customers. I'm sure the same is true for customers with muni-supplied power around the state, so if you are in one, check the website.
I wrote yesterday about why this is different from 2001. I also talked to several folks with intimate knowledge of the issue who worked on the crisis in 2001 and its aftermath. There are several things that have changed, ranging from the regulatory landscape to the state's increasing use of renewables. We weren't talking about loss of a wind farm in 2001, but rather natural gas supplies into the state that at the time fueled a majority of the state's electricity generation. While nat gas is still a plurality at around 35%, the increase of renewables raises a bevy of other supply issues without storage.
Meanwhile, the largest current storage proposal is the controversial pumped storage facility at Eagle Mountain in Riverside County, which I wrote about on August 6. That project would be facilitated by AB 1720, which is still in Senate Energy and doesn't appear to be moving. Then again, I've seen stranger things happen at the end of session, even when not in a crisis.
We'll see how this plays out over the next few days of perhaps record temperatures. It's not just Sacramento or California. Obviously, I've been checking up on my mom, who lives in Portland and like many San Francisco and Seattle residents, doesn't have air conditioning because it's rarely needed. The forecasted high in Portland today is 101, with 98 in Seattle.
The ISO Board of Governors has scheduled an emergency meeting today via teleconference. As a nonprofit organization, the meeting is closed to the public. The agenda is:
1) Briefing on system operations
3) Board planning
4) Legal update
5) Future agenda items
With 16 days left in the legislative session, we may have yet another crisis on our hands that could push the Legislature into overtime this fall.
Here are some articles I read this morning on the power situation:
VOTER REGISTRATION: Last week, the Secretary of State's Office released the July 3, 2020 voter registration data. Last night, I loaded the data into AroundTheCapitol.com. This updates the voter registration time trend page for statewide and each district as well as the sortable voter registration data page.
Between October 24, 2016 and July 3, 2020, statewide:
- Democratic: +1.4%
- Republican: -2.02%
- No Party Preference: -0.23%
- Other (including third parties): +0.85%
Looking at the changes between October 24, 2016 and July 3, 2020 among the the districts we've been watching closely:
- CA10 (San Joaquin-Stanislaus)
- Registration as of 07/03/2020: Dem: 38.96%, Rep: 34.29%, NPP: 20.21% Other: 6.54%
- Change from 10/24/2016: Dem: -0.13%, Rep: -2.12%, NPP: 0.78%, Other: 1.48%
- CA21 (Coalinga-Lemoore-South Bakersfield)
- Registration as of 07/03/2020: Dem: 43.94%, Rep: 26.96%, NPP: 23.27%, Other: 5.82%
- Change from 10/24/2016:Dem: -2.43%, Rep: -2.04%, NPP: +2.55%, Other +1.9%
- CA22 (Clovis-Visalia-Tulare)
- Registration as of 07/03/2020: Dem: 33.52%, Rep: 39.67%. NPP: 20.60%, Other: 6.21%
- Change from 10/24/2016: Dem: +0.68%, Rep: -3.52%, NPP: +1.68%, Other: +1.17%
- CA25 (Santa Clarita-Palmdale)
- Registration as of 07/03/2020: Dem: 39.21%, Rep: 31.91%, NPP: 22.52%, Other: 6.35%
- Change from 10/24/2016: Dem: +1.43%, Rep: -3.18%, NPP: +0.71%, Other: 1.04%
- CA39 (Diamond Bar-Fullerton-Yorba Linda)
- Registration as of 07/03/2020: Dem: 36.82%, Rep: 32.84%, NPP: 25.70%, Other: 4.64%
- Change from 10/24/2016: Dem: +2.33%, Rep: -3.42%, NPP: +0.43%, Other +0.66%
- CA45 (Anaheim Hills-Tustin-Irvine)
- Registration as of 07/03/2020: Dem: 34.49%, Rep: 35.58%, NPP: 25.37%, Other: 4.56%
- Change from 10/24/2016: Dem: +4%, Rep: -4.3%, NPP: -0.07%, Other: 0.36%
- CA48 (Orange County Beach Cities-Costa Mesa-Fountain Valley)
- Registration as of 07/03/2020: Dem: 33.04%, Rep: 38.17%, NPP: 23.64%, Other: 5.15%
- Change from 10/24/2016: Dem: +3.03%, Rep: -3.25%, NPP: -0.24%, Other: 0.46%
- CA49 (South Orange County Coast-North San Diego County Coast)
- Registration as of 07/03/2020: Dem: 35.02%, Rep: 34.31%, NPP: 24.73%. Other: 5.94%
- Change from 10/24/2016: Dem: +3.82%, Rep: -3.48%, NPP: -1.05%, Other: +0.71%
- CA50 (East San Diego County)
- Registration as of 07/03/2020: Dem: 29.96%. Rep: 40.10%, NPP: 23.36%. Other: 6.58%
- Change from 10/24/2016: Dem: +2.65%, Rep: -3%. NPP: -0.5%, Other: 0.85%
- SD21 (Santa Clarita-Antelope Valley)
- Registration as of 07/03/2020: Dem: 39.25%, Rep: 31.34%, NPP: 22.35%, Other: 7.07%
- Change from 10/24/2016: Dem: 0.71%, Rep: -2.64%, NPP: 0.71%, Other: 1.24%
- SD23 (Redlands-San Bernardino)
- Registration as of 07/03/2020: Dem: 37.04%, Rep: 35.38%, NPP: 20.73%, Other: 6.86%
- Change from 10/24/2016: Dem: +1.41%, Rep: -2.87%, NPP: +0.09%, Other: +1.39%
- SD29 (Diamond Bar-Fullerton)
- Registration as of 07/03/2020: Dem: 38.76%, Rep: 31.36%, NPP: 25.27%, Other: 4.61%
- Change from 10/24/2016: Dem: +2.16%, Rep: -3.31%, NPP: 0.48%, Other: 0.66%
- SD37 (Anaheim Hills-Irvine-OC Coast)
- Registration as of 07/03/2020: Dem: 34.81%, Rep: 35.41%, NPP: 24.95%, Other: 4.83%
- Change from 10/24/2016: Dem: +3.86%, Rep: -4.01%, NPP: -0.17%, Other: 0.32%
- AD16 (Walnut Creek-Pleasanton-Livermore)
- Registration as of 07/03/2020: Dem: 45.10%, Rep: 24.57%, NPP: 25.66%, Other: 4.67%
- Change from 10/24/2016: Dem: +4.05%, Rep: -4.78%, NPP: +0.2%, Other: +0.53%
- AD42 (Cathedral City, Twenty-Nine Palms, Yucaipa)
- Registration as of 07/03/2020: Dem: 37.20%, Rep: 35.88%, NPP: 20.09%, Other: 6.83%
- Change from 10/24/2016: Dem: +2.25%, Rep: -3.25%, NPP: -0.15%, Other: +1.15%
- AD55 (Diamond Bar-Yorba Linda)
- Registration as of 07/03/2020: Dem: 35.16%, Rep: 33.98%, NPP: 26.10%, Other: 4.75%
- Change from 10/24/2016: Dem: +2.42%, Rep: -3.31%, NPP: 0.16%, Other: 0.72%
- AD68 (Anaheim Hills-Orange-Tustin-Irvine)
- Registration as of 07/03/2020: Dem: 34.64%, Rep: 35.33%, NPP: 25.35%, Other: 4.68%
- Change from 10/24/2016: Dem: +3.76%, Rep: -4.67%, NPP: +0.56%, Other: +0.35%
- AD74 (OC Beach Cities-Costa Mesa-Irvine)
- Registration as of 07/03/2020: Dem: 35.03%, Rep-: 35.42%, NPP: 24.59%, Other: 4.97%
- Change from 10/24/2016: Dem: +3.99%, Rep: -3.41%, NPP: -0.86%, Other: 0.3%
- AD76 (N. San Diego Coast)
- Registration as of 07/03/2020: Dem: 37.21%, Rep: 31.12%, NPP: 25.33%, Other: 6.34%
- Change from 10/24/2016: Dem: +3.98%, Rep: -3.48%, NPP: -1.32%, Other: +0.82%
- AD77 (N. San Diego)
- Registration as of 07/03/2020: Dem: 36.61%, Rep: 29.96%, NPP: 28.23%, Other: 5.20%
- Change from 10/24/2016: Dem: +4.53%, Rep: -4.14%, NPP: -0.89%, Other 0.49%
Now let's look at the most partisan congressional districts, which also gives you insight into the most partisan State Senate and Assembly seats.
- CA13 (Oakland) - D+59.21 - Barbara Lee
- CA37 (Culver City) - D+54.04 - Karen Bass
- CA12 (San Francisco) - D+52.44 - Nancy Pelosi
- CA44 (Carson) - D+49.02 - Nanette Barragan
- CD34 (Downtown LA) - D+48.60 - Jimmy Gomez
- CD04 (Roseville-Foothills) - R+12.20 - Tom McClintock
- CD50 (East San Diego County) - R+11.44 - Open (Hunter seat)
- CD01 (Northeast Cal) - R+11.09 - Doug LaMalfa
- CD23 (Kern) - R+11.09 - Kevin McCarthy
- CD42 (Corona-Murietta) - R+7.08 - Ken Calvert
Feel free to play around with the sortable voter registration table. It is not behind the subscriber paywall for now although I'm considering moving all of these data to ATCpro only, because the data processing and coding is a lot of afternoon and night work.
cakeday, farewell, and NEW classifieds after the jump...
CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Dave Jacobson, Spencer Jones, former Assembly member Richard Katz, and Gustavo Medina!
FAREWELL: Long-time Assembly Republican Caucus policy consultant Terry Mast (1955-2020)
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