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- Inside Golden State Politics (Bill Boyarsky and Sherry Bebitch Jeffe): The media's challenge: Reporting the pandemic election. (2020-08-06)
- The Axe Files (David Axelrod @ CNN/UChicago): Rep. Karen Bass (D-Los Angeles) on her background and the veepstakes (2020-08-06)
- Capitol Weekly Podcast (John Howard and Tim Foster): Dr. Barbara O’Connor, Professor Emeritus at CSU Sacramento (2020-08-02)
- KQED's Political Breakdown (Scott Shafer and Marisa Lagos): Joe Trippi on the Veepstakes, Pioneering Netroots and the Real Story of Doug Jones' Victory (2020-07-30)
- Cap•Impact Podcast (Chris Micheli): How Proxy Voting Could Work in the California Assembly (2020-07-30)
- Inside Golden State Politics (Bill Boyarsky and Sherry Bebitch Jeffe): Asian Americans join Latinos as targets of Tump (2020-07-30)
- California Nation (SacBee): Governor Gavin Newsom and COVID-19 with Elizabeth Ashford, former advisor to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Gov. Jerry Brown, Steven Maviglio, former press secretary to Gov. Gray Davis and Joe Rodota, former cabinet secretary to Gov. Pete Wilson (2020-07-25)
The Nooner for Tuesday, August 11, 2020, presented by SYASL Partners
- State Public Health Director resigns
- The numbers
- The data problem
- The public health officer
- The violators
- Herd immunity
- The kids
- Theme parks
- The recovery
- AB 5 lawsuit
- Ballot measure haiku
- cakeday and classifieds
GENERAL ELECTION DATA POINTS
ATCpro SUBSCRIBER UPDATES: [A full list of recent election analysis is on the subscribers home page. If you have forgotten or haven't set a password, use the forgot password tool]
- CA39 (Diamond Bar-Fullerton-Yorba Linda): updated analysis (Leans Dem)
- CA53 (SD Balboa Park-La Mesa-El Cajon): updated analysis (Safe Dem - Dem-Dem general)
- SD29 (Diamond Bar-Fullerton): updated anaysis (Toss-up)
- SD37 (Anaheim Hills-Irvine): updated anaysis (Leans Dem)
- AD68 (Anaheim Hills-Orange-Tustin-Irvine): updated anaysis (Toss-up)
- AD55 (Diamond Bar-Yorba Linda): updated analysis (Toss-up)
- *AD77 (North San Diego): updated analysis (Safe Democratic)
MONEY MATTERS (highlights from daily campaign finance reports):
I am only including main committees. There are some, like agriculture against Prop 15, but I don't include it as it may be a feeder committee that ends up in the main committee, which would lead to duplication.
- No on Prop. 15 (split roll): $118,500 in 13 contributions
TOP 100: On Tuesday at 7pm, the annual Capitol Weekly Top 100 Party recognizing non-elected movers and shakers is being held virtually, but that also means it's free this year. Register and find out how to get copies of this year's book of those recognized at this link.
¡Feliz martes de tacos! The biggest decision of the day is what carne to put into some tortillas tonight to eat while I curse the Giants once again. They face Houston again at 6:10. Padres are at the Dodgers at 6:40 and the red hot As are at the Big A, also at 6:40.
No NewsomAtNoon today, but there is a POTUSpresser at 2:30 PDT.
Back to tacos. I have thawing chicken quarters and lamb loin chops, both from PT Ranch in Ione (Amador County), so we'll see. These are the thrills of COVID -- deciding what to put in a tortilla.
The Pac-12 did not make a decision on the fall sports season yet, but the Mountain West has canceled fall sports and shifting to spring is under consideration. That's Fresno State, San Diego State, and San José State. The big 5 conferences, including the Pac-12, are under immense pressure to find a way to make fall work, from television networks to the President of the United States.
CUT! Jason Iverson's Barber Blues opened a new shop in Folsom over the weekend which is offering outdoor cuts for those in East County. For more info and how to book an appointment (required), check out the Facebook page.
Let's get to it after the jumpity jump!
- Numbers: The state added 99 deaths yesterday for a total of 10,476. In the LAT, Colleen Shalby reports that the number of hospitalizations in the Inland Empire have followed the statewide trend by dropping.
In Riverside County — which has surpassed 400,000 cases — the COVID-19 death toll reached 820 Monday after public health officials reported 21 additional deaths. The county also reported that 359 people with confirmed cases of COVID-19 were hospitalized, including 112 in intensive care.
Those numbers are significantly down from the record-high hospitalizations nearly a month ago; 536 people were hospitalized on July 15, and 136 were in ICUs.
- The data problem: During yesterday's NewsomAtNoonThirty, the governor said that the backlog of cases because of the data problem had been processed over the weekend. You can see that demonstration in the LAT's graph. There was a lull for a period after the data collection problem became evident and then a huge spike yesterday. Now, that's likely overstating yesterday's actuals since it includes the backlog. The next few days will be key to see exactly where the trend is.
Source: Los Angeles Times
- The public health officer: During yesterday's presser, Dr. Sonia Angell's resignation was described as part of a reorganization of the public health section department of the state's Health and Human Services Agency, Governor Newsom said "The buck stops with me...she submitted a letter of resignation and I accepted it." Press tried to get him to say that he fired her but he would only say that he doesn't discuss personnel matters in public. Kevin Yamamura and Victoria Colliver have the story for Politico.
- The violators: ABC7 news reports that 5 people were shot at a large warehouse party in the Harbor Gateway area of Los Angeles overnight:
Police said about 100 to 200 people attended the illegal party at the warehouse. Gunfire erupted inside and outside the building, and the five shooting victims - three males and two females - were transported to a hospital. One victim was transported in serious condition, but all are expected to survive.
Of course, they may survive the gunshots, but we have to also think about the virus.
Meanwhile, in Sandy Eggo, a University Heights gym continues to operate indoors despite a cease and desist order from the county, reports Brittany Meiling for the Union-Tribune.
Boulevard Fitness, the University Heights gym now notorious for remaining open amid closure orders, has entered uncharted waters Monday. After receiving multiple visits from San Diego County officials and local police officers — and receiving official documents ordering its closure — the gym has continued business indoors.
This is the first time a San Diego business has ignored follow-up actions by county officials. On July 21, Boulevard Fitness received a cease and desist order, but chose to remain open. Days later on Aug. 6, county officials upped their offense with a new order delivered directly to owner Shawn Gilbert, ordering the gym’s immediate closure of indoor operations. Gilbert ignored it.
On Monday afternoon, a line stretched in front of the gym as patrons waited their turn to work out. Although the gym is still continuing business indoors, it’s chosen to operate at 50 percent capacity. Gilbert did not respond to the Union-Tribune’s request for comment but told reporters last month that he refused to close down.
“If I closed again, there’s a possibility I’d have to close these doors forever and I’m not going to let that happen,” Gilbert said at the time. “I’ve worked nonstop, taking virtually no sick days, to build something up from nothing. I won’t let it get destroyed.”
- Herd immunity: In the Times, Rong-Gong Lin II and Kim Christensen look at the outbreak at San Quentin and how it casts doubt on the argument that, if everything is reopened, enough people will become infected to achieve herd immunity to effectively halt the spread of the virus.
COVID-19 spread unchecked across California’s oldest prison in ways that stunned public health experts, despite efforts to control the disease. As of Monday, there had been more than 2,200 cases and 25 deaths, among a population of more than 3,260 people. On Sunday, a guard became one of the latest to die.
That means more than two-thirds of the prison’s population has been infected, said Dr. George Rutherford, epidemiologist and infectious diseases expert at UC San Francisco.
And though new cases have slowed, they are still occurring — with 60 reported in the last two weeks — suggesting herd immunity has not yet been achieved.
San Quentin’s death toll translates to a mortality rate of about 767 people dying out of every 100,000 persons.
- The kids: Laura J. Nelson reports on the surge in cases in California among youth.
Coronavirus cases among children and teenagers are surging in California, up 150% last month, a rate that outpaces COVID-19 cases overall and establishes minors as a small but growing share of the state’s COVID-19 cases.
The increase also appears to outpace the number of coronavirus cases among children nationally, which grew 40% in the second half of July, according to a study by the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children’s Hospital Assn.
Nationally, children with COVID-19 represented about 8.8% of all U.S. cases at the end of July, compared to 9% in California, the analysis found.
That number is continuing to climb, with more than 50,000 cases among children and teenagers in California this week, representing about 9.5% of total cases, according to data from the California Department of Public Health. The number is still dwarfed by new cases among adults ages 18 to 50, who represent the majority of cases statewide.
- Evictions: A CalMatters team collected the data on evictions during COVID, and it is not pretty.
More than 1,600 California households like Burson’s have been evicted since Newsom declared a statewide state of emergency March 4, according to data CalMatters obtained via public record requests from more than 40 California sheriffs’ departments. Nearly a third of those evictions took place after Newsom’s March 19 shelter-in-place order, and more than 400 since Newsom issued a self-described March 27 “eviction moratorium.”
The 1,600 evictions are likely a significant undercount of how many renters have been forced to leave their homes since the pandemic struck, as both court-sanctioned and informal evictions often do not show up on the sheriffs’ lockout lists obtained by CalMatters. Additionally, sheriffs’ departments in 14 counties did not respond to data requests; more than 14 million Californians live in those counties, including Los Angeles County with 10 million residents.
- School daze: In the SDUT, Kristen Taketa reports that San Diego Unified does not plan to return to in-person instruction right away even if given permission to do so by the state.
“It will be a matter of months — not weeks, not days — that we can anticipate the majority of our students to be working at home in online learning,” said San Diego Unified School Board Vice President Richard Barrera during a Zoom news conference.
Schools are facing pressure to reopen from parents who are frustrated with distance learning and need child care, as well as from advocates for vulnerable children who depend on in-person school for their academic, mental and physical health.
But the district is being more cautious in reopening than others after a panel of UC San Diego science and health experts recommended in a report this week that the district adopt more stringent reopening standards than those being enforced by the state.
“We’ve seen the mistakes that have been made in other places with other venues where they suddenly open and then had to re-close because they made an arbitrary decision that wasn’t really based on science,” School Board President John Lee Evans said.
Expect many other districts to take the same approach. There's also the fear of flipping the switch to return to in-person only to have to return to distance after a quick outbreak.
- HAIR! A national movement to reopen hair and nail salons next Monday regardless of state and county health orders includes a hair cut demonstration to show "how difficult" it is to cut hair outside on the south side of the State Capitol today at 1pm.
- Food: For CapRadio, Nina Sparling reports that while beef prices have significantly increased to the consumer, those being paid to independent ranchers have dropped -- hitting rural California hard.
- Theme parks: In the Register, Brady MacDonald reports that the state is evaluating when and how to open the state's theme parks.
California theme parks currently closed by the COVID-19 pandemic can reopen during Stage 3 of Gov. Gavin Newsom’s four-stage roadmap for reopening California’s economy, according to state government officials.
California theme parks are among the “higher risk” businesses and gatherings that would reopen in Stage 3 with adaptations and limits on the size of gatherings. Other Stage 3 close-contact businesses and gatherings include salons, gyms, theaters and sporting events without live audiences.
The California Department of Public Health will issue detailed guidance with suggested modifications for how to minimize the risk of COVID-19 spread when theme parks reopen, according to state officials. The state will work with California theme parks on developing COVID-19 health and safety reopening plans, state officials said.
Meanwhile, 72% of American adults recently responded that they would be uncomfortable going to a reopened theme park.
- The recovery: I missed this one yesterday. In the LAT, Phil Willon writes that the high-profile, broad task force appointed by Governor Newsom to aid in the state's recovery from the COVID-19 shutdown(s) is shrouded in mystery.
The Governor’s Task Force on Business and Jobs Recovery is a 108-member group that counts former California governors, Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook, Disney Executive Chairman Bob Iger and former Federal Reserve Board Chairwoman Janet L. Yellen among its members.
For all the boldface names and huge stakes, little is known about the task force, including how extensive a role the group played in shaping the decisions to reopen California.
The task force has operated almost entirely behind closed doors, and those appointed were not required to submit state government financial disclosure forms listing their assets and business interests, which would show potential conflicts. Newsom administration officials said the task force is just an advisory panel and has no authority to make policy, and noted that the meetings are private so members can share their opinions openly.
Still, the governor has relied on the group’s recommendations to help shape his administration’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Members were consulted about safeguards for reopening retailers and other sectors of the economy, including guidelines calling for workers and patrons inside stores and other businesses to wear face coverings. The group has also urged Newsom to expand upon the $75 million set aside in the state budget for small-business loans.
Months after the governor called together the task force, however, few details about its work have been made public, falling short of Newsom’s pledge that the group would “demonstrate meaningful reforms, meaningful changes, working on bonds, working on all kinds of financial mechanisms to jump-start this economy.”
AB 5 LAWSUIT: Following last Friday's motion hearing in the case filed by the Attorney General against Uber and Lyft requesting that drivers be deemed employees rather than independent contractors under AB 5, San Francisco Superior Court Judge Ethan Schulman granted a preliminary injunction, but stayed it for 10 days for the opportunity of the defendants to appeal the ruling. Here is the story from Courthouse News.
LA-LA LAND: The police officers union in Los Angeles have a message for Mayor Eric Garcetti -- don't expect us to enforce your COVID party house crack down. Dakota Smith reports for the Times:
[T]he mayor’s announcement drew the quick ire of officials in the Police Protective League, who have clashed with Garcetti in recent months as he has pushed for reforms and cuts to the LAPD as part of a national reckoning over police abuses.
“Mayor Garcetti wants to reimagine policing. He should send his civilian staff to turn off people’s electricity & cut off their water,” the League said in a tweet over the weekend in response to the mayor’s plans. “Let officers deal with the rise in shootings and killings in L.A. We need a leader and not a political contortionist,” Jerretta Sandoz, vice president of the union, reiterated in an interview Monday that police officers should not be involved with helping turn off utility services. “He wants to use police officers when it benefits him politically,” Sandoz said of the mayor.
BALLOT MEASURE HAIKU: Once again, Damian Caroll has prepared haiku summaries of the measures on the November ballot. For example:
If you want to end
Money bail for defendants
Vote yes on this one
cakeday and classifieds after the jump...
CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Jennifer Capitolo, Chris Chavez, and Puja Navaney!
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Voices for Progress: Membership Associate
Voices for Progress (V4P) galvanizes the advocacy of business leaders, entrepreneurs, philanthropists, and other prominent individuals who unite to protect our climate, strengthen our democracy, and ensure economic and social justice for all. The Membership Associate will support the Membership team with activation of members for participation in public policy advocacy and other programmatic activities; ongoing member maintenance; maintaining data integrity within the membership and activities database; and assisting with the smooth functioning of the team. This position reports directly to the Membership Engagement Manager. The Membership Associate is a Non-Exempt position. Non-exempt employees are paid an hourly rate for hours worked and are eligible for overtime pay.
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Probolsky Research is a market and opinion research company based in Newport Beach, California. We are woman and Latina-owned. We are non-partisan, independent researchers passionate about accuracy, data security, and using storytelling to make data usable.
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California School Boards Association - Public Affairs & Community Engagement Representative (LA North/Ventura)
Serve as CSBA’s liaison to local schools and county boards of education, key decision makers, and the community-at-large. Execute grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. Remote position based in the following location: LA North/Ventura. Salary based on experience. Please apply at: https://www.csba.org/About/Careers
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or 415-919-7990 with questions.
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Between 1-3 offices are available for sublease in the Meridian Plaza office building, 1415 L Street, two blocks from the Capitol. The offices are approximately 150 SF each. Internet, gym, partially furnished (desk, chair, bookcases) are included. 24/7/365 key card access; floor-ceiling windows facing Sierras; professional offices. One year lease preferred. $1,500 per office. Contact Jane at email@example.com or (415) 577-9734 with questions.
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