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- KQED's Political Breakdown (Scott Shafer and Marisa Lagos): Politico's Carla Marinucci on primary results and Warren's departure (2020-03-05)
- Capitol Weekly Podcast (John Howard and Tim Foster): Paul Mitchell on the departure of Elizabeth Warren and what's next in the presidential (2020-03-05)
- KQED's Political Breakdown (Scott Shafer and Marisa Lagos): Former Obama adviser Dan Pfeiffer and Paul Mitchell on the primary election (2020-02-13)
- Look West (Assembly Democratic Caucus): Assembly member Buffy Wicks and her husband, Giffords Executive Director Peter Ambler, as they discuss their efforts to prevent gun violence in California and nationwide, and how this work brought them together. (2020-02-13)
- Then There's California (Senate Democratic Caucus): Senate Majority Leader Bob Hertzberg (2020-02-11)
- Political Breakdown (Scott Shafer @ KQED): episode five of the eight-part series on Jerry Brown (2020-02-09)
- KQED's Political Breakdown (Scott Shafer and Marisa Lagos): New Hampshire primary and data guru Paul Mitchell on the California primary (2020-02-06)
- Capitol Weekly Podcast (John Howard and Tim Foster): Granite State native Steve Maviglio on the New Hampshire primary (2020-02-06)
The Nooner for Monday, March 9, 2020, presented by SYASL Partners
- Weekends at The Nooner
- Ballot status
- Economic impact
- May Revision
- AIDS Healthcare Foundation
- Cakeday and classifieds
- CA49 (South OC/North SD): changed rating from leans Democrat to likely Democrat
- SD06 (Sacramento): added Sacramento councilmember Angelique Ashby (D) - 2022
- AD36 (Palmdale): changed rating from toss-up to likely Republican
- AD38 (Santa Clarita): changed rating from leans Democrat to safe Republican
- CA16 (Fresno-Merced): updated analysis
- CA49 (South OC/North SD): updated analysis
- SD07 (Tri-Valley): updated analysis
- AD09 (South Sacramento): updated analysis
WEEKENDS AT THE NOONER:
- Saturday, March 7:
- Ballot status
- Election updates
- March 3 primary - a good thing? Paul Mitchell thinks so.
- Sunday, March 8:
- Ballot status
- AD72 (Garden Grove-Westminster)
- San Diego mayoral
- Ballots counted: 6,983,188
- Unprocessed ballots:
- Vote-by-mail: 2,497,738
- Provisional: 344,587
- Conditional (late) voter registration: 165,848
- Other (i.e. damaged ballots): 239,110
- Total unprocessed: 3,247,283
more after the jump...
CORONAVIRUS: Here are a few things we know as of Nooner publishing time.
- California cases: 129 (5 new in SF this morning), with 1 death, in 22 counties [h/t SFChron]
- COVID-19: Confused about the difference between "novel coronavirus" and COVID-19? The latter is simply shorthand since coronaviruses have many strains. COronaVIDisease 2019. I'll be using COVID-19 because it's easier.
- Grand Princess: You likely know that the cruise ship that has been off the San Francisco coast with 21 persons who have tested positive for COVID-19 plans to dock at the Port of Oakland sometime today. Here are some of the details:
- Why Port of Oakland and not the Grand Princess' home port which it will pass by while going to Oakland? The 18-acre site in Oakland is generally secluded and allows for the marshaling of buses and trucks for luggage as well such things as 50 portable toilets, which you makes sense given the pedestrian activity along the Embarcadero in San Francisco.
- After docking (should be in the Nooner distribution window), it is expected to take two to three days to complete the disembarkation of 2,400 passengers as this is unlike any regular procedure. (The other 1,100 are crew members). It will be the ill/quarantined patients first, then California residents, and then others. That may sound like favored nation status for the host port but it has to do with destinations. Hospitals, California bases, out-of-state military bases, and then the charter flights to foreign countries (below).
- There is a big sort required: California residents, other US residents, and residents of foreign countries.
- Diagnosed or others showing symptoms or needing medical care: area hospitals
- California residents (~960): Travis Air Force Base (Fairfield) and Miramar Air Station (North San Diego County) for quarantine
- Other US residents: Federal military installations in other states for quarantine
- Foreign residents: Oakland International Airport for charter flights to their home countries (not mixed with regular passengers)
- San Francisco Unified: All public schools remain open except for Lowell High, however non-essential activities such as assemblies, field trips, sports games and practices, theater performances and rehearsals and other events will not be held until at least after March 22.
- Elk Grove Unified: Northern California's largest school district is closed this week, officially accelerating Spring Break that had been scheduled for April 6-10. Elected and appointed Sacramento County and state officials held a press conference yesterday. Beyond parents scrambling for child care solutions, the biggest issue was that the district's closure appeared to require the #1-seeded Sheldon High School's men's basketball team to forfeit their game scheduled for today.
This enraged players and parents who feared that the forfeiture of the national powerhouse that has won the state championship the last two years would threaten college scholarships and possibly future careers on the court or off, while pointing to the fact that the state's guidelines for school closures for COVID-19 (released after the EGUSD board's decision) did not call for the schools to be closed. Following the press conference and requests by elected and school officials, the California Interscholastic Foundation (CIF) agreed to reschedule the game against of Sheldon v. Dublin for tomorrow.
California Department of Public Health guidance for other sectors, such as higher education, health care facilities, community care facilities, event organizers, first responders, employers, health care workers, and others can be found here.
- Riverside County: After the first diagnosis of an individual with COVOID-19 in the county, a public health emergency was declared. Subsequently, the BNP Paribas Tennis Tournament, one of the world's largest which was scheduled to begin Wednesday in Indian Wells, was canceled (for now). This calls into question whether or not the Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival scheduled from April 10-19 will proceed. It's a huge economic generator for the region, but also like SXSW canceled in Austin draws attendees from around the world in, shall we say, not the most hygeinic of environments.
- Travel: Breaking from a previous stance, the Centers for Disease Control warned all residents, especially the elderly and those with underlying health conditions, from cruise ships and long plane trips. That goes beyond even what Governor Gavin Newsom was cautioning during yesterday's press conference in Oakland. This obviously affects California's economy in particular, given the quantity of international airports and cruise ship terminals.
more after the jump...
ECONOMIC IMPACT: For Politico, Jeremy B. White and Carla Marinucci report on how state and local governments as well as business leaders are preparing for the economic impact of COVID-19.
California is at the heart of the unfolding coronavirus crisis in the United States, forcing Gov. Gavin Newsom, big-city mayors and business leaders to brace for wide-ranging economic impacts in a state deeply dependent on global trade, technology and tourism.
The situation even has Newsom and President Donald Trump, usually eager antagonists, preaching cooperation as all levels of government work to contain the threat.
MAY REVISION: I had an item for today on what the market reductions over the last couple of weeks might mean for the Governor's May Revision of his Governor's Budget Proposal in January expected by May 9. That was before the oil fight between Saudi Arabia and Russia over oil production amidst the reduction in demand (fewer airline miles, fewer truck miles, etc.) triggered the market tumult today, making my numbers irrelevant.
In short, the 2020-21 revenue forecast will likely drop significantly, including personal income, corporate, and sales tax revenues. The good news is that Jerry Brown's austerity has the state's books in the best shape in decades, but the question will be just how far Gavin Newsom will want to dip into those reserves.
We also don't know how things will shake out. Will the Administration support economic stimulus? Where will we be six weeks from now when the May Revision will be finalized? Where will we be on COVID-19? There are so many unknowns and I don't envy the Department of Finance and Legislative Analyst Office analysts that have to read the crystal ball.
The Governor's Budget Proposal included a chart for this possible scenario (introduction chapter).
AIDS HEALTHCARE FOUNDATION: In the LAT Times, Gale Holland looks at whether the AIDS Healthcare Foundation, a regular critic of government's approach to housing and homelessness as well as the proponent of the failed 2018 rent control measure and another one for November, is fulfilling its promise that it could house the homeless at a fraction of the cost of local government with better results. I think you know where this is going.
When the AIDS Healthcare Foundation began acquiring aging, single-occupancy hotels on skid row three years ago, its president, Michael Weinstein, lambasted L.A.'s handling of the homelessness crisis and boasted that he could house people at a fraction of the cost.
Some questioned why the nonprofit powerhouse, which operates 64 outpatient healthcare centers and 48 pharmacies in 15 states, was jumping into housing at the same time it was tangling with the city over “mega-developments” near its Hollywood headquarters. Others welcomed a fresh approach to tackling the intractable homelessness and affordable housing crisis.
But now, questions are arising about whether the foundation has gotten in over its head. Tenants at the Madison Hotel on 7th Street on skid row, the first single-occupancy — or “residential” — hotel in its growing housing empire, have filed a lawsuit accusing the foundation of allowing slum-like conditions to fester at the aging 220-unit building.
The suit filed on Wednesday cites persistent mold, as well as bedbug and roach infestations, and plumbing and electricity problems. One of the most serious accusations involves the elevator, which has been out of order for nine months, tenants say, forcing elderly and disabled renters to labor up to five floors on foot.
Also, the shower area has been sitting, half-renovated, behind duct-taped plastic, leaving residents, who have sinks but no private bathrooms, to share a single toilet and shower on each floor, the lawsuit says.
“Indeed, according to class members, AIDS Healthcare Foundation is just The Madison’s newest slumlord in a long line of slumlords,” according to the lawsuit.
GRAND PRINCESS CREW: I wanted to keep the item above factual and not my opinion. The 1,100 crew members are not being let off the ship, including the 19 that have been tested because they showed symptoms. However, it is likely that Patient Zero of the contagion on the ship originated with a 76-year-old man from Placer County, who has died. He was not on this Hawaiian voyage but rather the previous one to Mexico. Two of the ill crew members were waiters who served him. There's a dispute between the cruise ship operator and US officials as to whether he was indeed Patient Zero and obviously he's not available for a complete history. I'll let that finger pointing proceed.
The medical condition of the 19 crew members is not available. We are keeping them on the ship along with the rest of the crew for quarantine and treatment.
If any of them are seriously ill and in need of advanced medical care which is available throughout Northern California, we should get them off the ship and provide care unlikely available on the ship. After all, we know it is limited, as a seriously ill woman (not COVID-19) was removed via a Coast Guard boat while the Grand Princess has been idling off the coast. Cruise ships often have helicopter lifts of passengers or crew needing advanced coverage.
Of course, allowing them off would add to the number of US cases as soon as they hit US soil, something President Trump has expressed concerned about (he didn't want even the passengers let off, expressed during Friday's CDC press availability).
Media reports are that a majority of the crew are Filipinos, which is not unusual in the cruise ship industry.
Anyway, my opinion is that if any of these 19 crew members with COVID-19 and are symptomatic (others haven't been tested yet and likely won't, as only 45 test kits were processed) and die at sea, the blood is on our hands--simply to keep our "numbers" down.
cakedays and classifieds after the jump...
CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Victor Arrañaga Jr., Keith Curry, and Mike Jensen!
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