Around The Capitol

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RECENT PODS:

  • KQED's Political Breakdown (Scott Shafer and Marisa Lagos): Former Obama adviser Dan Pfeiffer and Paul Mitchell on the primary election (2020-02-13)
  • Look West (Assembly Democratic Caucus): Assembly member Buffy Wicks and her husband, Giffords Executive Director Peter Ambler, as they discuss their efforts to prevent gun violence in California and nationwide, and how this work brought them together. (2020-02-13)
  • Then There's California (Senate Democratic Caucus): Senate Majority Leader Bob Hertzberg (2020-02-11)
  • Political Breakdown (Scott Shafer @ KQED): episode five of the eight-part series on Jerry Brown (2020-02-09)
  • KQED's Political Breakdown (Scott Shafer and Marisa Lagos): New Hampshire primary and data guru Paul Mitchell on the California primary (2020-02-06)
  • Capitol Weekly Podcast (John Howard and Tim Foster): Granite State native Steve Maviglio on the New Hampshire primary (2020-02-06)

PRIMARY ELECTION DAY: ONE DAY MORE

ELECTION UPDATES:

ATCpro UPDATES (formerly Nooner Premium):

  • All of these are now on the ATCpro subscriber home page:
    • downloadable spreadsheet voter registration for each state legislative and congressional district
    • downloadable spreadsheet of 2016 presidential and 2018 gubernatorial results for each state legislative and congressional district
    • final downloadable candidate list for March 3 primary
    • 2020 ATCpro updates

The Nooner for Monday, March 2, 2020, presented by SYASL Partners

  • Tomorrow, tomorrow
  • Poll position
  • Cakeday and Classifieds

BALLOT UPDATE (COURTESY PDI):

  • Ballots mailed: 16,067,700
  • Ballots returned: 3,314,715 (20.6% of mailed)
  • Democrats: 1,410,945 (20% of mailed)
  • NPP/Other: 649,173 (13%)
  • Republicans: 1,161,683 (29%)

If those numbers don't add up perfectly, it's an awful manual process and I will make mistakes in transcribing.

One day more. Another day, another destiny...tomorrow you'll be worlds away...

Tomorrow, tomorrow, bet your bottom dollar on tomorrow...

And it's 11am. I have worked for 6 hours today and the news is changing by the minute. Even the below polls are irrelevant (or they actually are not).

We thought Enron was the biggest pissing away of money in history and led to Gray Davis's recall. Democrats are doing something similar in the presidential.

'twas the night before ballot-mess...

Obviously, I can't wait. Lots of candidates can't wait while many want another month. For me, it's about winnowing the field of 550 state candidates to 308 (153 regular races and one off-cycle special assuming CA25 has the same special and regular election candidates but whateverz) so my work is more manageable. It has been dizzying and the experts I normally rely on have no clue.

Anyway, check back with me in tax season about the election results. Of course, we'll be watching it daily in this space.

I watch elections in lots of state. California is unique, obviously, because we are huge and have a culture of voter enfranchisement. It takes awhile to count all the ballots. If I see an element of fraud, I will write about it, but have not and the 58 county election officials and Secretary of State Alex Padilla's staff are top-notch.

I'll just keep making jokes about it while pundits call us New Iowa.

We're just getting started...

POLL POSITION: Ugh, two more. I'm not sure if The Nooner's email format will handle it, but you can read it online and I just want to be consistent.

The two new ones are from USA Today/Suffolk and Emerson.

 USA Today/Suffolk
02/29-03/01
Emerson
2/29-03/01
Monmouth
02/16-02/19
PPIC 02/07-02/17CA120/Capitol Weekly 02/06-02/09KQED/Change Research
01/25-01/27
LAT/IGS
01/15-01/21
PPIC
01/03-01/12
CA120/Capitol Weekly
01/03-01/09
Bernie Sanders 35% 38% 24% 32% 29% 30% 26% 27% 24%
Elizabeth Warren 12% 16% 10% 13% 16% 16% 20% 23% 21%
Joe Biden 14% 21% 17% 14% 11% 15% 15% 24% 20%
Pete Buttigieg 7% 7% 9% 12% 14% 8% 7% 6% 11%
Michael Bloomberg 16% 11% 13% 12% 13% 4% 6% 1% (VOL.) 6%
Amy Klobuchar 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 3%   4% 5%
Andrew Yang n/a   n/a n/a 4% 5%   3% (VOL.) 7%
Tulsi Gabbard 3% 1% 2% 1% 3% 4%     2%
Tom Steyer 3% 2% 5% 3% 3% 2%     2%
Others (total)     1% 1%     6% 5%  
Undecided     13% 8%   13% 12% 7%  

 more after the jump...

 

OMG. It's a clusterf* here. Remember, the biggest cache of delegates in the Democratic primary's process are here in The Golden State. Only those candidates above 15% are "viable." I know I keep writing about this, but also keep hearing completely wrong analysis.

The 15% threshold apples for state AND congressional-district delegates. If anybody says they know what will happen, they don't know what they are talking about or are paid to talk. I have no clue. Amy and Pete (who I voted for) will win delegates here yet have suspended campaigns. Those delegates go to convention. I have no idea.

cakedays and classifieds after the jump...

 

Probolsky Research

CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Representative Ami Bera, Joel Bridgeman, Todd Flora, Joe Garofoli, Alex Hirsch, Chris Marsh, Tamara Rasberry, Katie Villegas, and Rick Zbur!

 

Classifieds

Add your classified now both in The Nooner and online for $50/week or $150/month by emailing scottlay@gmail.com, with a headline, a summary of up to 200 words, and what you'd like the end date to be. You can attach a PDF or provide a link for a bigger job description/info to apply. [Other advertising options]


CA Federation of Teachers - Field Representative

The California Federation of Teachers is seeking an experienced Field Representative with a strong commitment to improving education and to the labor movement, a willingness to work long and irregular hours, an ability to communicate effectively with diverse staff and membership, and an organizing approach to the job. A field representative's responsibilities may include work with certificated and classified employees ranging from preschool through post-graduate. ">More information here.

Department of Water Resources – State Water Project Chief Financial Manager

The State Water Project (SWP) Chief Financial Manager (CFM) works under the direction of the Deputy Director, SWP and provides high-level policy advice to the Department of Water Resources' (DWR) Directorate and SWP senior management on matters affecting the investment of resources to improve and sustain SWP operations. Please visit the CalCareers website for instructions on how to apply: https://www.jobs.ca.gov/CalHrPublic/Jobs/JobPosting.aspx?JobControlId=174041

California School Boards Association - Public Affairs & Community Engagement Rep (4 positions)

Serve as CSBA’s liaison to local schools and county boards of education, key decision makers, and the community-at-large. Execute grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. Positions based in the following locations: North LA/Ventura, South San Joaquin, SF Bay Area, and North Coast. Salary based on experience. Please apply at: https://www.csba.org/About/Careers

Senior Policy Associate (Los Angeles)

The Alliance for Children’s Rights is seeking a Senior Policy Associate to support the organization in the areas of local government advocacy, strategic planning, public education, communications, and media relations. The Senior Policy Associate will be focused primarily on systemic change relevant to children living in foster care and in poverty in Los Angeles County. The Senior Policy Associate engages in legislative and regulatory advocacy, litigation, and communication efforts ensuring successful implementation of statewide reforms in Los Angeles County and assisting in the development and implementation of systemic solutions specific to Los Angeles County. This position is housed in our main office, located in the City of Los Angeles.

The Alliance’s Policy Program is based in Sacramento and works with Alliance program staff to identify and track child welfare practices that adversely impact our clients and helps to establish and implement responses to those practices which include legislative and regulatory advocacy, impact litigation and other reform efforts. A Bachelor of Arts is required, or a Master of Public Policy Administration or J.D. is preferred. For additional information on responsibilities, required experience, abilities, qualifications and application process, please visit our website: https://kids-alliance.org/job-opportunities/

The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific

In addition to a well-respected JD, the McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees. Both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working succeed in the program. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a foundation in statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to governance. Learn at a beautiful campus three miles from the State Capitol:
go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or publicpolicy@pacific.edu.

Political Data Inc.
For 30 Years PDI has been California’s premier data vendor. Now, you can get live online trainings on the newest PDI software every week: