Around The Capitol

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RECENT PODS:

  • KQED's Political Breakdown (Scott Shafer and Marisa Lagos): Former Obama adviser Dan Pfeiffer and Paul Mitchell on the primary election (2020-02-13)
  • Look West (Assembly Democratic Caucus): Assembly member Buffy Wicks and her husband, Giffords Executive Director Peter Ambler, as they discuss their efforts to prevent gun violence in California and nationwide, and how this work brought them together. (2020-02-13)
  • Then There's California (Senate Democratic Caucus): Senate Majority Leader Bob Hertzberg (2020-02-11)
  • Political Breakdown (Scott Shafer @ KQED): episode five of the eight-part series on Jerry Brown (2020-02-09)
  • KQED's Political Breakdown (Scott Shafer and Marisa Lagos): New Hampshire primary and data guru Paul Mitchell on the California primary (2020-02-06)
  • Capitol Weekly Podcast (John Howard and Tim Foster): Granite State native Steve Maviglio on the New Hampshire primary (2020-02-06)

PRIMARY ELECTION DAY: 4 days

ELECTION UPDATES:

ATCpro UPDATES (formerly Nooner Premium):

  • All of these are now on the ATCpro subscriber home page:
    • downloadable spreadsheet voter registration for each state legislative and congressional district
    • downloadable spreadsheet of 2016 presidential and 2018 gubernatorial results for each state legislative and congressional district
    • final downloadable candidate list for March 3 primary
    • 2020 ATCpro updates

The Nooner for Friday, February 28, 2020, presented by SYASL Partners

  • Poll position
  • AD57 (Whittier)
  • AD72 (Garden Grove-Westminster)
  • Cakeday and Classifieds

BALLOT UPDATE (COURTESY PDI):

  • Ballots mailed: 16,044,592
  • Ballots returned: 2,596,905 (16.2% of mailed)
  • Democrats: 1,083,765 (15% of mailed)
  • NPP/Other: 532,219 (11%)
  • Republicans: 980,021 (25%)

FRIDAY! We made it!

I can't wait until after Tuesday as this home stretch has been brutal and I appreciate your readership. The campaign reports are pouring down like Yosemite Falls. Don't go chasing waterfalls... We all can use a little TLC right now.

Yes, I wish I was writing The Nooner Mexico City, but of course my Español is awful and writing on politics in Mexico is a death wish.

We're just getting started...

POLL POSITION: From our "Thank you sir, may I have another" file, Berkeley IGS has a presidential poll out today with the LA Times. I really thought we were done. It was online in English and Spanish and the results are from 3,008 likely Democratic Party March 3 primary voters. MOE +/- 2%.

 LAT/IGS
02/20-02/25
KQED/Change Research
02/20-02/23
PPIC 02/07-02/17CA120/Capitol Weekly 02/06-02/09KQED/Change Research
01/25-01/27
LAT/IGS
01/15-01/21
PPIC
01/03-01/12
CA120/Capitol Weekly
01/03-01/09
Bernie Sanders 34% 37% 32% 29% 30% 26% 27% 24%
Elizabeth Warren 17% 20% 13% 16% 16% 20% 23% 21%
Joe Biden 8% 12% 14% 11% 15% 15% 24% 20%
Pete Buttigieg 11% 11% 12% 14% 8% 7% 6% 11%
Michael Bloomberg 12% 6% 12% 13% 4% 6% 1% (VOL.) 6%
Amy Klobuchar 6% 5% 5% 5% 3%   4% 5%
Andrew Yang n/a 4% n/a 4% 5%   3% (VOL.) 7%
Tulsi Gabbard     1% 3% 4%     2%
Tom Steyer   3% 3% 3% 2%     2%
Others (total)   <2% 1%     6% 5%  
Undecided     8%   13% 12% 7%  

It looks as if the delegates statewide will be split 2:1 between Sanders and Warren. Of course, others will likely share at the congressional district level, although we don't have public polling on that.

The Bernie number (51%) among Latinos is astounding as is Biden's collapse. Of course, as we've talked about in this space, Biden never really built a California campaign while Bernie has more than 20 offices here.

(Full disclosure: I voted for Buttigieg. My choice was on foreign policy. That might sound strange from me, but it's always on my mind in presidentials.)

SD05 (San Joaquin): The California Apartment Association reports $50,000 to the IE committee supporting Jim Ridenour (R) in the race to succeed Cathleen Galgiani (D). It was Newsom +2.8 in 2018 and

CHAMBER (Tri-Valley): The California Chamber of Commerce is mailing bigly against Marisol Rubio (D), who is challenging Senator Steve Glazer (D) from the left and is supported by labor. The chamber is also playing in SD37 to oppose Costa Mesa mayor Katrina Foley (D). She is running against UC Irvine law prof Dave Min and Senator John M.W. Moorlach (R) in a Newsom+0.4 district. While we're at it, why not $37,500 in digital ads against former Assembly member Sally Lieber (D) in the hot race to succeed Jerry Hill (D) in SD13.

AD57 (Whittier): The United Nurses Association reports $45,000 in TV ads supporting Lisa Calderon (D) in her effort to succeed her son in a bitter primary against Sylvia Rubio, whose sisters Susan and Blanca serve in the State Senate and State Assembly.

AD72 (Garden Grove-Westminster): In the bitter race between Assembly member Tyler Diep (R) and former state senator Janet Nguyen (R), the "California Taxpayer Protection Committee" reports $14,250 in digital ads opposing Diep. I know hundreds of committee names, but this one is new to me.

Well it was formed in November. The leading funders are "Taxpayers for Ethical Government" ($45k) and Jackie Amundson of Arcadia ($20k). Amundson is the corporate secretary of a trucking company and is married to Arcadia council member Peter Asmundson. The most recent money behind Taxpayers for Ethical Government is the Building Industry Association of Southern California and the Orange County Taxpayers Association.

By the way, if you geek like me, the disclosure includes:

This report is being made in the interest of full disclosure on the basis of an unpaid, unapproved invoice for $14,250 from Media Placement Services for digital advertising in opposition to Tyler Diep for Assembly in the 72nd Assembly District. The invoice is number 10728 and it is dated today: February 27, 2020. We anticipate that the ad might begin running on Facebook before the California Taxpayer Protection Committee has actually paid the invoice.

This morning, the California Chamber of Commerce reported $25,000 in phone calls and text messages opposing Diep. Trucking companies (Amundson) hate AB 5. Diep was the only Republican to vote for the bill.

one more item after the jump...

TUESDAY: For the Times, Hailey Branson Potts puts thoughts forth ahead of Tuesday's California primary.

In the weeks leading up to what could be California’s most important primary election in decades, volunteers with Democratic groups here have been lingering around events like this, hoping to beat the odds and woo desperately needed young voters in a place that has voted for a GOP presidential candidate in every election since 1980.

“We can turn this county blue if we focus on young people,” said Rosemary Dukelow, voter outreach coordinator for the Placer County Democratic Party. The party “basically ignored them over the years. If you look at our Democratic clubs, it’s a sea of gray hairs.”

cakedays and classifieds after the jump...

 

Probolsky Research

CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Favel Stoda Jens, Rob Kerth, Gibran Maciel, and Zachary Yeates!

 

Classifieds

Add your classified now both in The Nooner and online for $50/week or $150/month by emailing scottlay@gmail.com, with a headline, a summary of up to 200 words, and what you'd like the end date to be. You can attach a PDF or provide a link for a bigger job description/info to apply. [Other advertising options]


CA Federation of Teachers - Field Representative

The California Federation of Teachers is seeking an experienced Field Representative with a strong commitment to improving education and to the labor movement, a willingness to work long and irregular hours, an ability to communicate effectively with diverse staff and membership, and an organizing approach to the job. A field representative's responsibilities may include work with certificated and classified employees ranging from preschool through post-graduate. ">More information here.

Department of Water Resources – State Water Project Chief Financial Manager

The State Water Project (SWP) Chief Financial Manager (CFM) works under the direction of the Deputy Director, SWP and provides high-level policy advice to the Department of Water Resources' (DWR) Directorate and SWP senior management on matters affecting the investment of resources to improve and sustain SWP operations. Please visit the CalCareers website for instructions on how to apply: https://www.jobs.ca.gov/CalHrPublic/Jobs/JobPosting.aspx?JobControlId=174041

California School Boards Association - Public Affairs & Community Engagement Rep (4 positions)

Serve as CSBA’s liaison to local schools and county boards of education, key decision makers, and the community-at-large. Execute grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. Positions based in the following locations: North LA/Ventura, South San Joaquin, SF Bay Area, and North Coast. Salary based on experience. Please apply at: https://www.csba.org/About/Careers

Senior Policy Associate (Los Angeles)

The Alliance for Children’s Rights is seeking a Senior Policy Associate to support the organization in the areas of local government advocacy, strategic planning, public education, communications, and media relations. The Senior Policy Associate will be focused primarily on systemic change relevant to children living in foster care and in poverty in Los Angeles County. The Senior Policy Associate engages in legislative and regulatory advocacy, litigation, and communication efforts ensuring successful implementation of statewide reforms in Los Angeles County and assisting in the development and implementation of systemic solutions specific to Los Angeles County. This position is housed in our main office, located in the City of Los Angeles.

The Alliance’s Policy Program is based in Sacramento and works with Alliance program staff to identify and track child welfare practices that adversely impact our clients and helps to establish and implement responses to those practices which include legislative and regulatory advocacy, impact litigation and other reform efforts. A Bachelor of Arts is required, or a Master of Public Policy Administration or J.D. is preferred. For additional information on responsibilities, required experience, abilities, qualifications and application process, please visit our website: https://kids-alliance.org/job-opportunities/

The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific

In addition to a well-respected JD, the McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees. Both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working succeed in the program. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a foundation in statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to governance. Learn at a beautiful campus three miles from the State Capitol:
go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or publicpolicy@pacific.edu.

Political Data Inc.
For 30 Years PDI has been California’s premier data vendor. Now, you can get live online trainings on the newest PDI software every week: