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PRIMARY ELECTION DAY: 8 days
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The Nooner for Monday, February 24, 2020, presented by SYASL Partners
BALLOT UPDATE (COURTESY PDI):
Hello there! I think I have the dates correct in today's Nooner. It's actually a bit more complicated than it may seem. There is a lot behind this monster.
Before I mention Mexico City below again, let me be clear that I paid retail for everything (with subscriber/advertiser support as my only income). If I receive anything of value, I disclose it. Most of you know that but I haven't traveled in five years and there are thousands of new readers. I always want to be completely transparent.
Yeah, I'm crying this morning with most of you and more on that later.
I'm looking forward to attending the Cerrell dinner of USC political science/policy students tonight. My sister's masters is from USC so I have to like the Trojans even though I am all UC. Of course, USC has been an advertiser of mine and many of my closest friends (e.g. Pablocito y Big D) have grad degrees from there. Anyway, I'm sure I will once again marvel at the students at tonight's networking dinner.
I expected today's PDI VBM report to be huge, although Wednesday will likely be bigger after ballots cast over the weekend are mailed an received. (Important note: the ballots are not counted but are just market as received and signature-validated now.)
Bernie is clearly on the track to go to Milwaukee with a plurality of delegates. I don't know what happens after that. My job is to think about California races and I don't think the presidential ballot affects congressional and state legislative races. Nobody running to the ballot box based on a presidential passion knows the R-R or D-D, etc. down-ballot races. In 20 districts, we have only an incumbent with a qualified write-in (20-40 signatures). Here in the mighty AD07, nobody is running to write in Libertarian James O. Just against Assembly member Kevin McCarty (D). After all, most of us these days can't even sign our names the same way twice. Filling out the immigration form before arriving in Mexico was not easy and trying to do the NYT crossword in pen was Herculean and that's not because it was a Wednesday puzzle.
just getting started...
Of course, the two races I'm watching most closely because of the Sanders surge are CA16 and SD07. In both cases, incumbents face serious challenges from the left. In both cases, the challenges are from Latinas. In CA16 in Merced-Fresno, eight-term Rep. Jim Costa (D) is being challenged by Fresno council member and attorney Esmeralda Soria (D). To be clear, while we are both alums of UCD law school, I have never met her. One of the two will advance to November in a likely Dem district.
In SD07, independent-minded mod Dem Senator Steve Glazer (D) is facing a challenge from the left by Marisol Rubio (D), who has significant labor support. Like CA16, one of the two will likely advance to November in a likely Dem district with a generally non-campaigning Republican. CA16, however, is more complicated. SD07 has two Dems and a Rep. CA16 has three Dems and a Rep. Some suggest that Dem Kim Williams in CA16 was recruited by Costa supporters to split the left vote.
I can't validate the word on the street and don't like to make accusations. No matter the motivation, Williams's presence in the race might save Costa even in a primary that is swinging to the left in the Dem presidential. That would be good news for powerful Assembly member Adam Gray (D) who has his eye on the seat in perhaps 2022. Gray was a staffer for former Rep. Dennis Cardoza (D), who stepped aside to when the Central Valley was carved up in 2011 redistricting leaving Valley incumbents in a pickle. Of course, in 2018, it all changed with Dems flipping CA10 and CA21, but in 2011, this was a BFD (borrowing Joe Biden's words about the Affordable Care Act during the signing message). I'm guessing Adam will be as tuned in to the CA16 results next Tuesday as Costa is.
I've been critical of Adam over the last couple of years because of his work as chair of Assembly Governmental Organization on things like e-cigarettes and horse racing. That said, I appreciate how well he plays the game and know that Merced is not Davis or downtown Sacramento. "He's one of us," as Sam wrote to Toby about Will Bailey (Josh Malina) in The West Wing. All in the game, yo'.
Yes, I watched lots of The West Wing while in Mexico. I'm too old to be out all night and that's not my scene, so what do you do in sleepless hours in the middle of the night than watch The West Wing?
more after the jump...
PG&E AND LABOR: So, Democrats (well, around 33%) are in the Bernie camp. That said, his support for a public takeover of Pacific Gas and Electric Company, something suggested by Governor Gavin Newsom after years of wildfire problems and the San Bruno gas explosion, is not popular with a big constituency. JD Morris writes it up in the Chron.
I'm crying now (around 11 and I've been up for six hours). I love our Sacramento Kings. I hated the Lakers after coming here. I was a season ticket holder of the Kings and the arena is eight blocks from me. I'm listening to Jimmy Kimmel at the service right now. Of course, the coach of the Orange Coast College baseball team was also on that copter. The Pirates are an amazing team and, like Kobe, he was with his daugther. The Lakers are not so bad or at least used to not be so, like the Kings. (If you don't know, Shaq is part of the ownership group of the Kings now.)
I've learned many things in my life. One of the biggest things is the forgiveness for tears that we can freely shed when appropriate. I may have hated you then but love you now Kobe and Gianna. I am sorry that sports got in the way of appreciating your amazing ability while alive.
cakedays and classifieds after a word from our sponsors...if you're a Nooner newbie, all I know is a code for the ads and don't know where they will be placed except for the top/premium spot.
CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to CA50 candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar and my fellow former King Hall Law Student Association prez Scott Judson!