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- KQED's Political Breakdown (Scott Shafer and Marisa Lagos): Former Obama adviser Dan Pfeiffer and Paul Mitchell on the primary election (2020-02-13)
- Look West (Assembly Democratic Caucus): Assembly member Buffy Wicks and her husband, Giffords Executive Director Peter Ambler, as they discuss their efforts to prevent gun violence in California and nationwide, and how this work brought them together. (2020-02-13)
- Then There's California (Senate Democratic Caucus): Senate Majority Leader Bob Hertzberg (2020-02-11)
- Political Breakdown (Scott Shafer @ KQED): episode five of the eight-part series on Jerry Brown (2020-02-09)
- KQED's Political Breakdown (Scott Shafer and Marisa Lagos): New Hampshire primary and data guru Paul Mitchell on the California primary (2020-02-06)
- Capitol Weekly Podcast (John Howard and Tim Foster): Granite State native Steve Maviglio on the New Hampshire primary (2020-02-06)
PRIMARY ELECTION DAY: 11 days
ATCpro UPDATES (formerly Nooner Premium):
- All of these are now on the ATCpro subscriber home page:
- downloadable spreadsheet voter registration for each state legislative and congressional district
- downloadable spreadsheet of 2016 presidential and 2018 gubernatorial results for each state legislative and congressional district
- final downloadable candidate list for March 3 primary
- 2020 ATCpro updates
The Nooner for Friday, February 21, 2020, presented by SYASL Partners
- Poll position
- Money Matters
- AD57 (Whittier) follies
- Cakeday and Classifieds
BALLOT UPDATE (COURTESY PDI):
- Ballots mailed: 16,076,379
- Ballots returned: 1,587,189 (9.9% of mailed)
- Democrats: 612,385 (8% of mailed)
- NPP/Other: 325,784 (7%)
- Republicans: 619,020 (16%)
If you haven't played with PDI's tracker, you can dive down by districts and geography.
It's FRIIIIIIIDAY! You made it! I have CNN on here at Nooner Global HQ and the great Jeff Zeleny of CNN just did a live hit. The warm-up song currently playing is Guns n' Roses "Knocking on Heaven's Door." Uh, that's a fireable offense by advance staff. What's next? "The End" by The Doors?
I'll hit a few items this morning and may write you again or just keep the firehose reflected on Twitter, which seems to be the best way to get the word out with so much going on. Most of you know Twitter, but for those of you who don't, you don't need an account to see what I'm putting out there. Just visit twitter.com/scottlay.
At noon, I'll be at the briefing of the full PPIC poll. We saw the presidential results on Tuesday, and as I discuss below, we got the full poll last night. More on the poll later.
Let's get to it after the jump...
POLL POSITION: Late yesterday, Monmouth University released a new poll on presidential preference in California, so we need to add that to our chart.
|PPIC 02/07-02/17||CA120/Capitol Weekly 02/06-02/09||KQED/Change Research|
In the poll, 45% of respondents said that they may were open to a different candidate, with 36% saying it was a high or moderate possibility.
Knowing the anger I created earlier this week in talking about the PPIC poll while writing from Mexico City, let me be more careful. Bernie Sanders will capture delegates at the statewide and congressional district level. I would expect that he will get 40-60% of delegates overall in California. The question is where the second tier (Biden-Bloomberg-Buttigieg-Warren) will land and who will be above 15% at the statewide and congressional district levels to earn delegates. If anyone tells you they have an idea, they are full of manure.
AB 5 and more after the jump...
AB 5 (Gonzalez): Our friend Ben Ebbink adds the AB 5-related bills introduced yesterday so I'll now include them to our full list, with credit to Chris Micheli as well. Team effort! (Both are employer-side lobbyists and I was a classmate of Ben at King Hall. Both also are known to be very nice guys and are respected by my friends in labor. They share their work with everybody, which is somewhat unusual in this town, so I give them credit.)
- AB 1850 (Gonzalez) – recasts Labor Code Sec. 2750.3
- AB 1925 (Obernolte) – creates small business exemption to ABC Test
- AB 1928 (Kiley) – repeals ABC Test and requires determination using Borello test
- AB 2457 (Melendez) – exempts individuals who are licensed pharmacists
- AB 2458 (Melendez) - exempts individuals working as physical therapists
- AB 2465 (Gonzalez) - recasts and reorganizes the exemptions for a person licensed as an esthetician, electrologist, manicurist, barber, or cosmetologist
- AB 2489 (Choi) - prohibits franchisees from being deemed employees of a franchisor
- AB 2497 (Bigelow) – spot bill (but refers to transportation network companies)
- AB 2572 (Dahle) - timber operators
- AB 2750 (Bigelow) - spot
- AB 2793 (Mathis) - marriage/family therapists
- AB 2794 (Mathis) - health care providers
- AB 2796 (Fong) - newspaper carriers
- AB 2822 (Waldron) - transportation network companies
- AB 2823 (Waldron) - land surveyors/architects, etc.
- ACA 19 (Kiley) – requires determination based upon Borello test
- SB 806 (Grove) – spot bill
- SB 867 (Bates) – makes permanent newspaper carriers exemption
- SB 868 (Bates) – exempts all freelance journalists
- SB 875 (Grove) -- exempts court interpreters and translators
- SB 881 (Jones) – exempts musicians
- SB 963 (Morrell) – exempts referees and umpires for youth sports
- SB 965 (Nielsen) – exempts companies that employ health care providers who provide services to patients at those facilities
- SB 966 (Nielsen) – exempts licensed pharmacists
- SB 967 (Borgeas) – prohibits franchisees from being deemed employees of a franchisor
- SB 975 (Dahle) – exempts licensed timber operators and registered professional foresters
- SB 990 (Moorlach) – exempts transportation network companies
- SB 1039 (Galgiani) – states intent of the Legislature to develop a modern policy framework that facilitates independent work for those who voluntarily choose it by creating a third classification of workers
- SB 1236 (Stern) - spot
It's going to be a cray-cray session! I'm glad I've booked a return trip to Mexico City in September between the end of session and the beginning of voting (better timing than last week's trip).
AD57 and more after the jump...
MONEY MATTERS: I tweeted a lot of campaign finance updates last night and will continue to do so. It's probably a better way to display it rather than in The Nooner. I'll have a memo with the Second Pre-election report numbers for the biggest state races over the weekend. The volume of reports is daunting but we'll get this done.
Here's where the parties stand on net cash on hand with the period closing February 15:
- California Democratic Party: $12,163,430
- California Republican Party: $2,104,212
AD57 (Whittier) FOLLIES: In perhaps the most bitter race among Democrats to succeed Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon (D) in the safe Dem seat southeast of Los Angeles, there is a new website at lisacalderon.com, which in the scramble for the last-minute campaign, Ian's stepmother Lisa Calderon's team clearly forgot to buy. That's campaign malpractice as it costs $12.99 on Hover to buy a domain. Apparently I've had scottlay.com since 2003, although I have no plans on running for office. But I'll keep buying it for years. I will also probably continue to sit on scottlay.net.
The website, though, does not have a "paid for by" statement. Honestly, when this came to me overnight from someone who is neutral in the race, I had to scratch my head. So, I had to research if a disclosure is required. If it is mail, the answer is clearly yes. However, as a website, the FPPC advises that it is recommended but not required.
Fittingly, the website has a disclaimer, but only for the geeks among us. Okay, you know me...
When you look at the HTML code behind what is displayed on the website, you will find this on lines 482-484 of the code (link may only work in Chrome...each browser has a different function to view HTML of a website).
Honestly with so much independent money being spent for Calderon and Rubio, I didn't know what I would find in the code after someone sent me the website link.
I can't actually write the code here because it would break The Nooner. But if you "View Source" or "View HTML" based on your browser, this is what you'll see on those lines:
Anyway, there is no violation of law by commenting out the disclosure line. The FPPC would recommend not doing so and to display it, but Rubio's campaign is complying with the law. For me, it was the perfect geek way to start my Friday.
Also in AD57, There was an interesting maximum contribution of $4,700 to Lisa Calderon (D) yesterday from James Peace of El Cajon. Obviously, there are lots of people maxing out to both Sylvia Rubio and Lisa Calderon, so Scott why is interesting? Well James Peace of El Cajon is James Stephen Peace, as in former state senator, and DOF Director under Gray Davis, Steve Peace.
What's interesting about this is that Steve Peace is the ultimate mod Dem and part of the "Gang of Five" who in 1988 tried to dethrone Willie Brown as Speaker of the Assembly. One of the other members of the Gang of Five was Charles Calderon, who is the husband of candidate Lisa Calderon. Steve Peace's son Chad Peace is the legal advisor to the Independent Voter Project. Close associate Cadee Condit (daughter of former congressman Gary Condit) was previously married to Assembly member Adam Gray (D-Merced). Gray worked for Condit. As a guy divorced from an amazing woman, I hate to even mention that, but it's relevant to the story.
In 1988, I was just a sick kid between my long hospital stays in 1987 and 1989 in Denver for my lungs, so obviously, the "Gang of Five" era was just something I learned as part of California political history. I learned it from Tony Bernhard in a class on California politics in 1995 at UC Davis. Bernhard is a former Assembly staffer and at the time was the county clerk-recorder of Yolo, where Davis is located west of Sacramento.
Beyond Calderon, Condit, and Peace, the Gang of Five included trying to oust Willie were Rusty Areias and Jerry Eaves.
I sure as hell didn't think that the Gang of Five would be relevant in 2020. Oddly, that 1988 battle was mostly mods against Willie. With yesterday's report, Steve Peace is supporting the liberal in AD57. It has nothing to do with policy but instead goes back to 1988 and the friendship between Peace and Chuck, who graduated from UC Davis's King Hall School of Law 24 years before I did.
cakeday and classifieds after the jump...
CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Silvia Flores, Ruben Gonzalez, Tom Hallinan, Lexi Purich Howard, and Alma Martinez!
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