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RECENT PODS:

  • Gimme Shelter: California Housing Crisis Podcast (Liam Dillon @ LAT and Matt Levin @ CalMatters): The aftermath of the death of SB 50 (2020-02-03) 
  • SacTown Talks (Gibran Maciel): Assembly member Chris Holden (D-Pasadena) [YouTube | iTunes | Simplecast] (2020-02-03)
  • Political Breakdown (Scott Shafer @ KQED): episode three of the eight-part series on Jerry Brown (2020-02-01)
  • Capitol Weekly Podcast (John Howard and Tim Foster): Chris Micheli on Lobbying 101 (2020-01-31)
  • Political Breakdown (Scott Shafer and Maris Lagos @KQED): update on Iowa caucus and political attorney Robin Johansen (2020-01-30)
  • Then There's California (Senate Democratic Caucus): Senator Ben Allen (D-Santa Monica) on SB 54, which seeks to reduce single-use plastic consumption. (2020-01-28)
  • Gimme Housing (Jakob Lazzarro and Matt Levin for CalMatters): The Oakland housing moms (2020-01-27)
  • Nooner Conversations (Scott Lay): Political data geek Paul Mitchell and GOP consultant Mike Madrid on the March 3 primary in California [Simplecast | iTunes] (2020-01-24)

PRIMARY ELECTION DAY: 28 days

ELECTION UPDATES:

ATCpro UPDATES (formerly Nooner Premium):

  • All of these are now on the ATCpro subscriber home page:
    • downloadable spreadsheet voter registration for each state legislative and congressional district
    • downloadable spreadsheet of 2016 presidential and 2018 gubernatorial results for each state legislative and congressional district
    • final downloadable candidate list for March 3 primary
    • 2020 ATCpro update

The Nooner for Tuesday, February 4, 2020, presented by SYASL Partners

  • Iowa and California
  • Better Call Paul
  • SB 207: Voter registration
  • PG&E
  • Rent control
  • Stem cells
  • Orange County House seats
  • SD13 (San Mateo)
  • AD42 (Yucaipa)
  • AD72 (Dana Point)
  • Cakeday and classifieds

IOWA AND CALIFORNIA: Well, that was interesting last night. Maybe we'll learn facts of what happened, maybe won't. We might even learn that there were enough irregularities beyond reporting pace that the whole Iowa caucuses could be thrown out. Nate Silver writes that Iowa may have screwed up the Democratic nomination process.

The good news is that Iowa has a regular statewide race on June 2, including for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Joni Earnst (R). On that day, District of Columbia, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota are holding presidential primaries. So, if there is an iota of evidence that there were irregularities beyond the pace of reporting because of an app and clogged phone lines, there is an easy answer--hold a Democratic presidential primary (counted by government officials) on that date and forget all about the Iowa caucus clusterf*--permanently.

Iowa's misfortune could add to conspiracy theories about California elections. In the November 2018 general election, 12,464,235 votes for Newsom and Cox combined for the final tally. However, only 7,124,146 of those were tabulated on election night, according to news reports. If it takes three weeks to count the "late" ballots, which have to considered on both statewide and congressional district grounds, we're ahead for plenty of criticism for the nation's largest bevy of delegates.

All that said, California's delays come from a meticulous vote-counting system and things such as same-day registration.

I wrote about the process back on November 17, 2018 as the criticism was boiling up.

Simply put, the ordering of ballot counting is as such:

  1. Vote-by-mail received before Election Day
  2. Polling place (VBMs already crossed off the rolls)
  3. Vote-by-mail received on Election Day or postmarked thereon and received by Friday, November 6
  4. Damaged (can't be machine read and have to be re-created by elections staff with supervision)
  5. Provisional (after ensuring voter has not voted via an above method)
  6. Conditional provisional (after 1. validating new/re-registration and 2. ensuring voter has not voted via an above method)

I've had to explain this to some of my elected friends in the Legislature. The process ensures that every ballot is counted, no person votes twice, and signatures are validated on vote-by-mail ballots. If a voter drops a mail-in ballot the mailbox on Election Day but the signature affixed on the outside of the envelope doesn't match the voter registration or the envelope was not signed, the county elections official must provide the voter an opportunity to cure it under Elections Code §3019.

That code section requires county elections officials to mail the voter with notice and an affidavit eight days before certification of the election (April 4 this year), which then must be returned at least two days prior to the certification of the election. With that notice, the voter can try again to match their signature again or show up at the county elections office with identification.

In the November 2016 election, an estimated 33,000 to 45,000 California voters had mismatched signatures according to this court case finding a county elections official erred in not giving the voter the right to cure their signature. As we continue to have increasing numbers of mail-in voters and as many of us rarely sign our name or have a clue how we signed our voter registration card, this challenge for elections officials only increases each election cycle. Following the 2018 court case, the Legislature codified it with a process to be followed by couonty elections officials effective January 1, 2020 by SB 523 (McGuire).

I'd like to get rid of using signatures completely although efforts to do so have been unsuccessful.

THE OUTSIDERS: Presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg is skipping the early states and focusing on Super Tuesday. Yesterday, he was in Sacramento, Fresno, and Compton. Does that advantage him given the Iowa debacle? Former Massachusetts governor Duval Patrick also skipped the caucuses. Folks are debating the impact and the one thing those of us not paid by a campaign know is that there is no way to know yet. Similar questions surround Senators Cory Booker and Kamala Harris and former HUD Secretary Julián Castro who ran out of cash amid low poll numbers. This is a crazy year.

BETTER CALL PAUL: For Capitol Weekly, Paul Mitchell reports on the 15 million mail-in ballots largely sent out yesterday and the share of those ballots that will be cast by the time the four states preceding Super Tuesday when California votes..

For Super Tuesday, we are expecting to see an earlier vote than ever before. Over 15 million California ballots are being mailed, mostly today, and we are expecting to see a ton come back in the first week or 10 days.

With three-quarters of the electorate being mailed ballots, we know records will be broken. Based on recent polling, a whopping 75% of by-mail voters say they’re going to vote early. I’m sure they would also say they are going to pay their bills on time and be early to work, but even if this is 60%, this suggests that the early vote will be larger than we have ever seen.

Regardless whether they vote in the first week or the last, we will see a higher share of the electorate voting by mail than in any previous California election.

SB 207 (Hurtado): Speaking of elections, the bill allowing voters to change their partisan preference or address within the same county in writing without reregistering was approved in the Assembly yesterday and is now back in the State Senate on concurrence. As an urgency bill, it would affect the March 3 election.

PG&E: The bill by Senator Scott Wiener (D-San Francisco) to pave the way for a state takeover of Pacific Gas & Electric is SB 927, which was introduced yesterday.

RENT CONTROL: The initiative sponsored by Michael Weinstein and his AIDS Healthcare Foundation as a return to Proposition 10 in 2018 with modifications qualified for the ballot yesterday. Voters defeated last cycle's measure 40.6-59.4%. Opposing this initiative are the apartment owners, the building trades, and others who were part of the AB 1482 compromised and agreed to by the Legislature and Governor Newsom, who contend that the initiative would overturn that deal.

STEM CELL: For Capitol Weekly, David Jensen writes on the LAO's report on the costs of the stem cell initiative aimed for the November ballot, which would recharge the agency with more bond funds.

ORANGE COUNTY HOUSE SEATS: For the Register, Brooke Staggs looks at the cash on hand of the four Orange County congressional seats that Democrats flipped in 2018.

Candidates in four key House races in Orange County have already raised nearly $15 million for the 2020 elections, a sign of potentially big spending this year as Democrats and Republicans vie for seats that flipped from red to blue in the 2018 midterm.

SD13 (San Mateo): There's a new independent expenditure committee supporting Redwood City vice mayor Shelly Masur in the open safe Dem seat to succeed Jerry Hill. The effort is funded by the California Teachers Association ($150k), the California Federation of Teachers ($75k), and the California Medical Association ($75k).

AD42 (Yucaipa): The California Dental Association has an IE to prop up Assembly member Chad Mayes (NPP). Mayes faces Mt. San Jacinto mayor Andrew Kutyuk (R) and attorney DeniAntionette Mazingo (D).

AD72 (Garden Grove-Westminster): An independent expenditure effort to support former senator Janet Nguyen (R) in her challenge of Assembly member Tyler Diep (R) reported yesterday $135,000 for field operations. I also noticed the the largest donor to the IE committee is eccentric Vietnamese-American Kieu Hoang with $250,000. Hoang made is fortune with partial ownership of Shanghai RAAS Blood Products. He now owns a Napa winery and has a thing for beauty pageants.

Cakeday and classifieds after the jump...

 

Probolsky Research

CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Mark Chekal-Bain, Assembly member Eduardo Garcia, Pamela Lopez, and Chris Valenzano!

 

Classifieds

Add your classified now both in The Nooner and online for $50/week or $150/month by emailing scottlay@gmail.com, with a headline, a summary of up to 200 words, and what you'd like the end date to be. You can attach a PDF or provide a link for a bigger job description/info to apply. [Other advertising options]


The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific

In addition to a well-respected JD, the McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees. Both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working succeed in the program. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a foundation in statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to governance. Learn at a beautiful campus three miles from the State Capitol:
go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or publicpolicy@pacific.edu.

California School Boards Association - Legislative Director

CSBA is seeking a Legislative Director to lead our Governmental Relations team to shape legislative and political strategy for CSBA’s statewide agenda. You will act as a liaison between governmental, educational, and public communities. If you are interested in leading a team of policy advocates to influence opinion in favor of public education, please apply through our website. Position is located in West Sacramento. =Learn more and apply HERE.

Capitol Weekly's Conference on Housing: Feb 18
Don't miss Capitol Weekly's Conference on Housing, Feb 18 in Sacramento. Panels on the Homeless Crisis, Legislative Actions and New Ideas. Keynote from Senator Scott Wiener (D-San Francisco). Register here.

CA Democratic Party - Executive Director

The California Democratic Party is seeking a self-driven and highly competent Executive Director to lead our organization who will design and implement strategies that support and enhance our organizational and political operations. Duties for the Executive Director will include providing leadership to all staff, establishing and executing strategic electoral and financial goals, overseeing and streamlining daily operations, improving staff performance, ensuring fiscal compliance, and maintaining positive relationships with internal and external partners. More Info here. Please respond to edjobopening@cadem.org

California Special Districts Association

Central Coast Public Affairs Field Coordinator. Serve as key liaison to hundreds of local government agencies from Ventura to Santa Cruz. Promote grassroots legislative advocacy, public affairs, and other association activities. Regularly meet with and present to local agency executives and elected officials. Work from home w/frequent in-state travel. Salary range $68,336 - $102,503. Benefits include CalPERS pension. Send Resume and Cover Letter to kylep@csda.net.

[full position description]

A bill's journey through the legislature is rarely simple or easy.
Ray LeBov, a 45 year Capitol veteran, has been teaching how to successfully navigate the legislative terrain for more than a decade. Ray’s Lobbying 101 and 201 are a must-attend for anyone looking to learn the complex issues that are involved in legislative advocacy. Capitol Seminar's next sessions are February 6 and 7th. Those interested in learning how to prosper in the complex legislative environment won’t want to miss attending! Click here for further details (including registration and pricing) OR feel free to call (916) 442-5009.
Political Data Inc.
For 30 Years PDI has been California’s premier data vendor. Now, you can get live online trainings on the newest PDI software every week: