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E-141 - Wednesday, October 16, 2019, presented by SYASLPartners
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RECENT AURAL PLEASURE:
LEGISLATIVE DIRECTORY UPDATES:
IN TODAY'S NOONER:
I'll be grabbing lunch before a 1pm joint hearing of the Assembly Governmental Organization, Business and Operations, and Health committees on vaping. Here is the agenda and background paper. You should be able to watch or listen to it here. Rep. Duncan Hunter thinks that the government's moves on e-cigarettes is
Speaking of vaping, the San Diego County Board of Supervisors voted 3-2 yesterday for a one-year ban on sales of e-cigarettes in unincorporated areas of the county. Ken Stone reports for the Times of San Diego:
"Along with the ban on devices, the county will also prohibit the sale and distribution of all flavored products for smoking, prohibit smoking in outdoor dining patio areas, and establish a buffer zone outside of outdoor dining patio areas."
In case you give a damn, embattled Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Alpine), who famously used a vape pen in a congressional hearing, dons his physician's coat for the U-T:
“I am vaping,” Hunter told the Union-Tribune when asked if he still uses the products. He said the safety concerns prompting bans nationwide are “massively overblown.”
“It’s because of THC products that are homemade...or using the wrong oils,” Hunter said. “It’s bad for you — that’s what’s happening.”
Say, congressman, I have this itch...
For those keeping score, Supervisor Nathan Fletcher, who is married to Assembly Approps chair Lorena Gonzalez, voted in favor of the ban. I am not suggesting that they vote in tandem, but rather adding it to the picture.
Last night was the deadline for third quarter reports for federal campaigns. I'll look at the competitive races and have something for you in the next couple of days. I know I was a bit hard on Kamala Harris yesterday, but I'm just reading polls. Last not she performed as expected and is unlikely to yield much changes in polls one way or another.
THE POD: Thank you for the great response to the live podcast recording on California and Constitutional Law, December 9 at Capital Books. It should be a lot of fun. I'm looking forward to a great event and hope it's the first of many to come.
After picking up the pod for the first time, several folks have asked me which were the best episodes. Of course, they are all our children who we love equally. That said, we've made tech improvements with multiple cameras and now have both better audio and video encoding equipment and shouldn't lose one, as we did with Lorena Gonzalez (she'll be back!). I will share with you the top ten (audio rankings only) episodes thus far. In fairness to early guests, the audience has been growing and elevating more recent episodes. We'll hope to have you back on next year!
So, here are the top ten listens, which I will update weekly on the podcast list page. The episodes can then be found in the reverse chronological list of episodes below the top ten on the page.
VOTER REG: For Capitol Weekly, Paul Mitchell dives into voter registration data in the changing world because he knows he can tickle your fantasy by dazzling us with digits. Paul writes:
"In today's voter data environment, campaigns can actually use this information to target voters. For example, there are identifiers for those who were previous registrants, and whether they registered through an active means (online, filling out a form) or through a passive means (DMV or automatic NCOA registration). This is nerdy, but it is incredibly important for a modern campaign that is trying to most efficiently communicate with the right voters.
When building targeting, campaigns will segment newly registered voters without any prior vote history and treat them like a “Get out the vote” universe. If those voters are demographically, politically or regionally likely to support a candidate or cause, then campaigns will use door-knocking, texting, phone calls and other grassroots efforts to try and mobilize them into participating.
But another group — those who are new registrants but with prior vote history, also known as “re-registrants” — don’t need the additional push to get out the door and vote, or mail back their ballot. These voters are highly likely to vote on their own, and campaigns can focus on the persuasion part of their campaign, using mailers, targeted digital ads, etc…"
REFINERY FIRE: Following a fiery explosion at the NuStar Energy facility in the East Bay community of Rodeo, the team at the Chron report that investigators are looking into whether a 4.5 earthquake in Pleasant Hill Monday night was the cause. The fire was under control and emergency orders were lifted late last night. The fire led to a 7-hour closure of I-80, tying up Bay Area commuter traffic yesterday evening.
There was a 4.8 earthquake in Soledad this morning, part of a series of small-to-moderate temblors this week.
PG&E: Joel Fox encourages Governor Gavin Newsom to be patient and let the PUC investigate last week's Public Shafety Power Shutoff before reaching conclusions. "A current running though the body politic seems to blame first, ask questions later. Due process has been often ignored when accusations fly...While the governor is rightly incensed on behalf of his constituents, he should wait on the PUC investigation into PG&E before he passes judgment."
FRIENDLY CRITICISM OR DEEPER RIFT WITH BLUE-COLLAR LABOR? I noticed the ads on social media the last couple of days--the State Building and Construction Trades Council of California is essentially blaming Governor Gavin Newsom for worker deaths as they try to get the governor to fill a vacancy on the Cal-OSHA board with a labor-friendly appointment. Dan Morain includes the ad campaign in the morning CalMatters briefing.
"Newsom’s spokesman Nathan Click did not say when the position would be filled. Regarding any rift with the blue collar worjers’ union, Click cited a recent news release about Newsom signing “landmark legislation drafted in response to the #MeToo movement.”
Democrats rely on the building trades for campaign money and volunteers. The organization also splits with Democrats, particularly those who view themselves as environmentalists.
Robbie Hunter, the head of the State Building and Construction Trades Council of California, said he has been asking that the vacancy be filled for months.
Hunter said he got no response from the administration when he sent a note in September about an ironworker, Brien Daunt, who died on the job, leaving behind a daughter."
HOUSING: Joe Mathews writes that the Public Safety Power Shutoffs obscured some "good moves" by Governor Gavin Newsom to address the housing crisis.
The governor says he’s just getting started says that he’s just getting started. Let’s hope so."
THE VETOES: In the Bee, Andrew Sheeler looks at Governor Newsom's vetoes that left his usual liberal backers disappointed. Sheeler specifically cites bills on hospital closures, immigration enforcement, full-day kindergarten, and Lorena's bill to increase outreach by county election officers to NPP voters about their ability to request a partisan ballot in the primary for those parties allowing NPP voters to cast ballots in the presidential primary.
MORE ON THE PRESIDENTIAL, CAKEDAY, and CLASSIFIEDS after the jumpity jump...
PRESIDENTIAL: For Capitol Weekly, John Howard writes on the CA120 poll we discussed in this space yesterday and writes "While Warren and Sanders have been seen to be drawing from the same well of progressive voters, there are sharp contrasts in where they are getting their support. As the full crosstabs (available here) show, Warren does well across age groups and income levels, with her weakest support among young people still at a relatively healthy 21%. At the same time, Sanders is very polarized based on age, ranging from 40% among 18-34 year-olds to just a fraction of that among Seniors."
I graphed out the crosstabs of where the candidates polling over 5% in California for the share of voters expressing candidates as their top preference. Note that the percentages are not the poll numbers themselves, but they add up to 100% for each candidate.
This is important. Someone asked yesterday about whether Sanders was losing non-Warren voters to Biden following his health scare. The fact is that Bernie's strongest support has always been among a passionate group of the youngest voters. If Sanders left the race, it's totally unclear where those who haven't already defected to Warren would go.
Kamala's support that totals 8% among California voters in the poll spreads out the most equally among age groups, which are good numbers. A misstep that could disenfranchise one age group of voters is not necessarily fatal, while Mayor Pete can't afford to piss off older voters, and the same can be said about Bernie among younger voters.
CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to former Assembly members Warren Furutani and Sally Havice and Thom O'Shaughnessy!